Santa vs the Two Grinches, Again
(1) Santa runs into turbulence. (2) The attack of the two variants. (3) Omicron is fast spreading, but less dangerous, especially to the vaccinated. (4) Will herd immunity be the outcome? (5) New cases soaring in Europe, but not hospitalizations, so far. (6) China faces the Omicron challenge. (7) The hawkish variant of the FOMC. (8) Levitating dot plot. (9) Waller says March is a “live meeting.” (10) Pivots and rotations. (11) A slimmed-down variant of Biden’s BBB likely to pass in early 2022. (12) People are disappearing in China, and so is retail sales growth. (13) Will China’s property bubble burst or just deflate? (14) Movie review: “Spencer” (+).

Will 2022 Be Better Than 2021?
(1) Outdoor gas heaters collecting dust. (2) Taking on the bears. (3) Higher buybacks mean more stock grants. (4) Coming tax hikes may be spurring insider stock sales. (5) Households own lots of stock, but are they crazy like a fox? (6) Stocks have rallied at the start of Fed tightening cycles. (7) What could go right in year ahead? (8) Covid could go from pandemic to endemic. (9) Opportunities in travel-related areas. (10) Boeing could finally fly. (11) Everyone’s getting married. (12) Energy recovery should continue. (13) The year of the autonomous truck.

Behind the Inflation Curve
(1) Fed head provided a heads-up. (2) Powell has mutated from dovish to hawkish variant of Fed chair. (3) FOMC’s latest projections likely to show more rate hikes in 2022. (4) Fed scrambling to catch up with inflation curve. (5) Real interest rates are unreal. (6) Is the bond yield alarming or not? (7) Durable goods inflation should moderate next year. (8) Inflation is currently disconcerting. (9) Supply chains are still kinky. (10) Monitoring the supply chains. (11) Amazon shows the way.

Does Covid = Y2K For Earnings?
(1) Technicians don’t like what they see in Nasdaq. (2) A replay of Y2K boom and bust for tech as a result of Covid? (3) Scramble to boost productivity should offset less pandemic-related tech demand. (4) Nasdaq 100 beating Nasdaq composite (2,500+ stocks). (5) S&P 500/400/600 Information Technology having a good year. (6) Mag-8 are in both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. (7) Mag-8 accounts for more than a quarter of S&P 500 market cap and is trading at a forward P/E of 34.8 on a free-float basis. (8) S&P 500 profit margins probably peaked during Q2 but should stay high, especially ex-Financials. (9) Lots of solid revenues and earnings growth rates among S&P 500 sectors.

Santa’s Sleigh & Biden’s Helicopters
(1) Stocking stuffer idea. (2) Two Grinches: the Omicron variant and the hawkish Powell variant. (3) Believing in Santa. (4) S&P 500 makes another record high … Ho-Ho-Ho! (5) Good tidings for Tech. (6) A happy holiday yield-curve story. (7) Bidenflation: Dropping cash from helicopters works all too well. (8) Larry Summers was right. (9) Inflation likely to persist, but moderate later next year. (10) How real are S&P 500 earnings? (11) Real earnings yield says sell. We say don’t sell. (12) Movie review: “West Side Story” (+ +).

China, Wall Street, and the CIA
(1) Evergrande’s restructuring looks likely. (2) It’s not alone. (3) Chinese economic growth slows, so its central bank boosts liquidity. (4) Hongkongers moving out. (5) Biden ires China by giving Taiwan a seat at the table and skipping the Olympics. (6) China building military outposts. (7) The little guys standing up to Xi might start a trend. (8) US financial giants see an opening in China and take it. (9) But are they hurting the US by developing China’s markets? (10) Taking a look at the venture capital firm that invests the CIA’s money. (11) Warning the US to up government research funding or risk losing our edge to China.

The World vs the Virus
(1) Peter and the Variant. (2) Is Panic Attack #71 over already? (3) The Virology and Epidemiology Department at YRI. (4) Variants happen. (5) Stay Home continues to outperform Go Global. (6) US MSCI forward earnings on steeper uptrend than in rest of world (ROW). (7) US forward revenues outperforming ROW. (8) Profit margins higher in US than ROW. (9) Omicron spreads faster. So why doesn’t the stock market care? (10) A variant similar to the common cold? (11) Shots and pills should work against Omicron. (12) “President Fauci.”

Taper Tantrum 4.0
(1) Taper tantrums now and then. (2) Easier for the Fed to back off during past three tantrums than now. (3) A work in progress. (4) November’s CPI won’t help. (5) What is the yield curve telling us? (6) Sentiment indexes are bearish on balance, which is bullish. (7) Betting on earnings growth and liquidity. (8) The stock market equation. (9) Peak earnings growth will be followed by less earnings growth. (10) Growth-vs-Value rollercoaster driven by pandemic waves. (11) The death of Growth, Tech, and high-P/E stocks has been exaggerated.

The Economy Is Booming
(1) New theme song for the stock market by The Clash. (2) Strong economy is good for earnings. (3) Not so good for valuation if FOMC votes to taper faster. (4) GDPNow tracking near 10% for Q4! (5) Raising our Q4 forecast. (6) Only boom in Boom-Bust Barometer. (7) M-PMI remains high, while NM-PMI is at new record high. (8) Are supply disruptions as disruptive as they say? (9) Full-time employment leading jobs recovery. (10) Wages and prices rising. (11) S&P 500/400/600 forward revenues, earnings, and margins confirming strong business activity. (12) Movie review: “House of Gucci” (+ +).

Consumers & Fusion
(1) Holiday gatherings should help propel retail sales. (2) Hoping Omicron doesn’t play the Grinch. (3) Improving job market and rising incomes otherwise bode well for retailers. (4) Consumers’ debt is up, but debt service relative to disposable income remains low. (5) S&P Consumer Discretionary sector beating the S&P 500. (6) Amazon weighs on the Retail Composite. (7) Analysts upbeat on retailers’ earnings next year. (8) Nuclear fusion becomes a hot topic. (9) Fusion attracts big bucks from Gates, Bezos, and others. (10) Playing with the most powerful magnets on Earth. (11) Double-checking the math.

Follow the Money
(1) The two Grinches: Omicron and Jay Powell. (2) Powell wants to speed up tapering trot. (3) Don’t sell Santa Claus short. (4) The Fed averted a great credit crunch last year. (5) Animal spirits gone wild in capital markets. (6) The wealthy diversifying their wealth by funding more ventures and startups. (7) Record refinancing in nonfinancial corporate bond market. (8) C&I loans falling. (9) Leveraged loans at record high. (10) Lots of stock issuance. (11) Booming IPO issuance. (12) Lots of VCs. (13) Record M&A deal-making.

Is America Shovel Ready?
(1) Obama’s insight: Shovel-ready projects don’t exist. (2) Biden needs construction workers for his BBB infrastructure projects. (3) The difference between “shovel ready” and “shovel worthy.” (4) Meet Mitch Landrieu, the new infrastructure czar. Wish him luck. (5) A dismal history of big infrastructure spending. (6) Construction costs are high. (7) Construction workers have plenty of work now. (8) Durable goods orders are booming, and shipments aren’t lagging far behind notwithstanding supply-chain issues. (9) Forward earnings of S&P 500 Industrials soaring along with orders. (10) IT equipment output is also booming.

The Omicron Panic
(1) Austria’s lockdown and Germany’s record infections unnerved investors recently. (2) Then Omicron news hit the tape on Friday. (3) A new potentially dangerous variant. (4) Travel lockdowns. (5) S&P 500 drops a bit, while oil nears a bear market. (6) Drug makers are prepared to play Whac-A-Mole with variants of Covid. (7) Two or three rate hikes next year? (8) Plenty of excess M2. (9) More Fed officials talking about tapering at faster pace. (10) Movie review: “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (+ + +).

Transportation & Green Ships
(1) Retailers are ready for the holiday rush. (2) Shipping prices ease, and Transports underperform the S&P 500. (3) West Coast import volumes plateauing at record high. (4) Keeping an eye on the drop in intermodal rail traffic. (5) The surge in trucking volumes has stalled. (6) Analysts still optimistic about railroad and trucking industries’ 2022 earnings. (7) Ports open overnight, but truckers stay home. (8) Containers overstay their welcome. (9) Shippers test green energy. (10) Electric, methanol, wind, and nuclear get a chance.

The Genie Is Out of the Bottle
(1) Inflation is turning out to be both pesky and persistent. (2) Powell’s latest pivot. (3) Blaming supply-chain disruptions for inflation rather than excessively stimulative fiscal and monetary policies. (4) FOMC consensus expects inflation to drop close to 2% next year. (5) We expect FOMC will raise inflation target from 2% to 3% next year. (6) Inflation blast from the past: COLAs are back already. (7) Regional price indexes remain inflated. (8) Are inflationary expectations really “well anchored” at 2%? (9) Average inflation targeting is a bad idea. (10) Movie review: “Dopesick” (+ + +).

China, Materials & Green Isn’t Clean
(1) China’s Xi gets a promotion. (2) Troubled Chinese real estate developers scramble to raise money. (3) China’s new home sales and prices fall again in October. (4) Covid-19 cases still pop up despite China’s zero-tolerance policy. (5) Beijing requires a negative Covid test before entering the city. (6) Chinese economy growing, but slower. (7) A look at top-performing sectors over past two decades. (8) Demand for materials used in Chinese construction could sag. (9) Demand for materials used in EVs and windmills should keep booming. (10) Examining the dirty side of clean energy.

Updates on Profit Margins & Europe
(1) Record-high stock prices driven by record-high earnings. (2) S&P 500 revenues and earnings beating Q3 expectations. (3) Negative forward guidance on labor and parts shortages not weighing on earnings expectations. (4) Annual revenue and earnings estimates for 2021-23 at record highs. (5) Profit margin expectations plateauing at record level. (6) No sign that cost pressures are squeezing margins. (7) Europe relying on Russian gas to keep warm. (8) Breakthrough cases, a new pandemic woe in Europe. (9) Europe’s recovery slowing despite lots of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

Is the Meltup a Bubble?
(1) Not everything is in a bubble. (2) Sentiment isn’t euphoric. (3) Bitcoin is impossible to value. (4) Home prices overvalued relative to incomes. (5) High stock market valuations supported by strong earnings. (6) SMidCaps may be starting to outperform. (7) S&P 500 P/E inflated by Growth, which is inflated by Mag-8. (8) Alarmingly high Buffett Ratio misleadingly ignores record profit margin. (9) No cause for alarm in Fed’s latest Financial Stability Report. (10) Biden explains “Bidenflation.”

Inflation: Blast from the Past
(1) Similarities and differences between now and the 1970s. (2) Productivity should make all the difference. (3) Our upwardly revised inflation forecasts. (4) Commodity prices still rising. (5) Labor shortages empowering workers. (6) Short-term wage-price spiral unlikely to persist if productivity grows. (7) Biden puts OPEC+ in driver’s seat. (8) Hilarious US Energy Secretary laughs out loud. (9) Policy response to climate change is inflationary. (10) Record US imports despite supply disruptions. (11) Moderating and accelerating inflation components. (12) “China price” now a source of US inflation. (13) Movie review: “Silk Road” (+ +).

Health Care & Gates’ Green Investments
(1) Patients’ return to health care facilities this year will mean tougher comparisons for the S&P 500 Health Care sector in 2022. (2) Lack of workers hurts behavioral health facilities. (3) The many cats and dogs adopted during the pandemic need Zoetis’ drugs. (4) Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy Ventures gets billionaires to open their wallets. (5) Breakthrough-funded companies are developing more efficient clean energy, pulling carbon from air, and making everything imaginable greener. (6) Coming soon: better batteries, electric planes, and farming that would shock Old MacDonald.

Are We There Yet?
(1) Hurdles to global recovery are receding in rearview mirror—yet that’s where global central bankers’ sights remain glued. (2) Is extreme accommodation still appropriate? (3) Central bankers of the past might have acted by now to resist inflation. (4) ECB, BOJ, and Fed all talk the talk about transitory nature of accelerating inflation and supply/labor shortages. (5) When will they walk the walk? (6) Covid-19 pandemic isn’t over, but we are learning to live with it.

The Bond Conundrum, Again
(1) No tapering tantrum in bond market. (2) Tapering isn’t tightening. (3) But tapering sets stage for tightening if inflation persists. (4) Are retail investors buying bond funds to rebalance out of stocks? (5) Major central banks in no rush to raise their official lending rates. (6) Bank of England surprises. (7) Chinese trade surplus at record high during October. (8) Large capital outflows from China. (9) Property developers hitting a great wall in China. (10) Investors starting to realize that SMidCaps are cheap.

Transitory or Persistent?
(1) Distracting from the message. (2) Powell defines “transitory.” It’s not “persistent.” (3) Powell may be transitory. (4) End of federal jobless benefits seems to have boosted employment. (5) Our Earned Income Proxy at new high again. (6) More full-time jobs, less long-term unemployment. (7) Lower-wage workers beating inflation, while higher-wage workers are not. (8) Supply disruptions and labor shortages depressed productivity and boosted unit labor costs during Q3. (9) The case for the Roaring 2020s. (10) Labor shortages are chronic because they are in DNA of population. (11) Movie review: “Finch” (+).

Semis & Quantum Computers
(1) Semiconductor shortage may last another year. (2) ON Semiconductors’ Q3 beat keeps its rally going. (3) NXP says semi content in autos keeps growing. (4) Tech giants dive into semiconductor design. (5) Analysts still see semiconductor earnings growing, albeit more slowly, next year. (6) China says its new quantum computer is better than ours. (7) Introducing semiconductor qubits. (8) Quantum computers being used for good and evil. (9) Toyota using quantum computers to develop solid-state batteries. (10) Bad actors harvesting data today to quantum-hack tomorrow. (11) Quantum startups merging with SPACs.

No Shortage of Earnings!
(1) The definition of a meltup. (2) Earnings-led vs P/E-led meltups. (3) S&P 500 flying to record altitudes along with Blue Angels. (4) How to move a wagon train. (5) Q3 earnings beating expectations. (6) Consensus earnings estimates rising for next five quarters. (7) Record highs for forward revenues and earnings. (8) Why aren’t SMidCaps beating LargeCaps? (9) Profit margins set to stall at record highs? (10) M-PMI remains bullish for earnings. (11) Inflation target practice at the Fed.

What’s Up with TINA?
(1) “TINA” isn’t the only acronym in town. (2) Big inflows into equity ETFs. (3) Big outflows from equity mutual funds. (4) A couple of extra trillion dollars here and there. (5) Lots of excess saving. (6) Bond funds having more fun. (7) The Fed taketh away. (8) Tapering around the corner. (9) From FAAMGs to GAMMAs. (10) Excluding GAMMAs, S&P 500 forward P/E more reasonable. (11) Smith, Marx, Schumpeter, Keynes, and Samuelson: What they got wrong.

Greenwashing in Glasgow
(1) UN’s 26th conference to nowhere. (2) Two important no-shows. (3) China’s homegrown problems keep the country pumping CO2. (4) Putin is in no rush to help the world kick its fossil fuel addiction. (5) Chilly Siberians wouldn’t mind a little global warming. (6) Four countries produce half of CO2 emissions. (7) King Coal rules Asian power producers. (8) A green version of whitewashing. (9) Coal and gas prices take a dip. (10) On the lookout for a wage-price spiral. (11) Supply disruptions hit auto component of GDP. (12) The inflation “tax” weighs on real personal income and consumer spending. (13) Movie review: “De Gaulle” (+ +).

Margins, FAANMGs, and Batteries
(1) Margin pressure is on. (2) Companies boost sales and raise prices to fight back. (3) Technology helps reduce costs and boost productivity. (4) Meet Flippy, a chicken-wings-cooking robot. (5) Many robots and four humans pick, pack, and ship 200,000 packages a day in one warehouse. (6) FAANMG’s gains slow. (7) Facebook, Amazon, and Apple hold back the gang. (8) Panasonic moves forward with bigger, better Tesla battery. (9) Honeywell utility-scale battery provides power for 12 hours and doesn’t use lithium. (10) Form Energy offers up a 100-hour battery. (11) Bill Gates’ firm invests in ESS. (12) FleetZero wants cargo ships to use batteries, too.

Kinks in the Chain
(1) From JIT to JIC. (2) Not so easy to go back to JIC. (3) From demand shock to supply shock. (4) Auto industry invented JIT, and is now crippled by it. (5) Lowering and raising our real GDP through the end of next year. (6) Raising our inflation forecast. (7) Supply-chain indicators. (8) Santa will have plenty of good excuses for not delivering all the goods. (9) Is California to blame? (10) Amazing Amazon has hoarded all the truckers, trucks, and cargo planes!

Less Worrisome Worry List, For Now
(1) Monday webinars. (2) Hooray for profits! (3) Bobby McFerrin’s happy tune. (4) Halloween came early for stock investors. Xmas might have started early too. (5) Bull/Bear Ratio isn’t bullish, which is bullish. (6) Ex-FAAMGs, stocks are fairly valued. (7) Earnings picture remains bright. (8) Lots of very liquid liquidity sitting in demand deposits. (9) No fiscal cliff ahead. (10) Beijing says “Forget CO2, burn coal baby!” (11) Nord Stream 2 likely to be full of gas for Europe soon. (12) Evergrande is still in business. (13) Inflation remains the main worry on the worry list.

Phillips CurveMaking a Comeback?
(1) Something different. (2) #1 new release. (3) Johnny Paycheck and the Great Resignation. (4) Quitting for better pay, caregiving at home, less stress, retirement, self-employment, jobless benefits, or health. (5) The oldest Baby Boomers turned 65 in 2011, 75 in 2021. (6) Growth in working-age population and in labor force close to zero. (7) Is the Phillips Curve rising from the dead? (8) The model is missing an important variable, i.e., productivity. (9) Labor shortage likely to depress unemployment rate and boost productivity. (10) Movie review: “Dune” (+).

Radioactive Briefing
(1) Counting the cargo ships in LA’s harbor. (2) Companies face higher input, transportation, and labor expenses. (3) P&G has the pricing power to pass on rising costs. (4) Delta doesn’t. (5) Kellogg and Deere face striking workers. (6) Workers in Buffalo attempting to form first US Starbucks union. (7) Beige Book lays out the price pressures companies face. (8) Transition to green energy may require more nuclear plants. (9) England and France counting on nuclear energy as part of their energy mix. (10) New small reactors gaining acceptance. (11) Price of uranium and uranium-themed ETFs jump. (12) New exchange-traded trusts snapping up the radioactive commodity.

Recession Assessment
(1) A new book about profits and other related matters. (2) A hypersonic business cycle? (3) Short recession. Fast recovery. What’s next? (4) GDPNow model now sees almost zero growth in Q3! (5) Two professors forecasting a recession in the next 18 months. (6) Consumer expectations are depressed, but leading indicators still signaling growth. (7) Slicing and dicing latest FOMC minutes: Time to start tapering. (8) Brainard and Lagarde are two BFF central bankers out to save the world from climate change.

The Fed’s Squid Game
(1) Fed’s green light enabled the V-shaped recovery. (2) Light was still green when inflation was deemed to be transitory. (3) More persistent inflation forces Fed to turn on flashing orange light. (4) Will a wage-price spiral force Fed to turn on the red light? (5) Powell is frustrated. (6) Will supply bottlenecks also be less transitory than Fed expects? (7) Lots of liquid assets. (8) Parts shortages depressing output in US and Eurozone. (9) Mixed readings in September’s CPI. (10) Stock market bulls likely to charge through flashing orange light. (11) It’s still a green light for banks. (12) China’s faulty light switch. (13) Movie review: “Squid Game” (+).

Climate Central Planners
(1) Incompetent central planners. (2) Not ready for prime time: Renewables still unreliable and insufficient. (3) A Nobel idea. (4) Soaring natural gas prices crimping supply of energy-intensive metals. (5) Clumsy transition to renewables adding to inflationary pressures. (6) A surprising scenario: weaker Chinese economy, stronger metals prices, and firm dollar. (7) A chronology of China’s energy crisis. (8) Xi’s climate pledge to the UN. (9) Coal prices still soaring in China. (10) A very brief history of inflation during the 1970s. (11) A very brief history of the 2020s.

JP Morgan, China & Methane
(1) JPM leads the bank earnings brigade. (2) Results helped by improving credit and strong capital markets. (3) Corporate loan demand still sluggish. (4) Yield curve may lend a hand in the future. (5) The hits keep coming in China’s property market. (6) China’s energy prices soar, and electricity service gets interrupted. (7) Xi wants “peaceful” reunification with Taiwan as he flies military jets nearby. (8) Environmentalists focus on methane. (9) Blaming the cows and sheep. (10) New foods and a mask might help gassy cows. (11) Old natural gas wells silently hurting the environment.

Lots of Moving Parts in US Labor & Housing Markets
(1) There are 1.25 jobs for each unemployed worker. (2) Surge in quits creates more job openings. (3) Employers hard-pressed to fill job openings. (4) Housing market cooling, but will stay warm. (5) New and existing home inventories edging up. (6) Home price appreciation may have peaked for a while. (7) Fewer “For Rent” signs. (8) Plenty of federal relief still left for renters. (9) Still good times for multifamily homebuilders. (10) Institutions buying homes to rent.

Profit Margin Winners & Losers
(1) Demand for energy outpacing renewable supplies. (2) Renewable energy sources are unreliable. (3) Hard to say which way the wind will blow, if at all. (4) Grim choice: natural disasters vs freezing in the dark. (5) Bigger natural disasters because more people in harm’s way. (6) Unintended consequence for ESG investors: Dirty energy could outperform clean energy in the stock market. (7) Energy has tiny market-cap share currently. (8) An ideal scenario for dirty Energy’s profit margin. (9) Q3 earnings reporting season likely to be full of tales of labor and parts shortages and rising costs. (10) SMidCaps’ fundamentals stronger than LargeCaps, and their stocks are cheaper.

Lots of Good News About Jobs
(1) Our proxy for wages and salaries at another record high. (2) The inflation tax is taking its toll. (3) Are teachers quitting, retiring, or both? (4) Pandemic-challenged industries continue to recover. (5) More full-time jobs for part-time workers. (6) Wages rising faster for lower-wage workers, and beating inflation. (7) Biggest wage gains in industries with highest job openings rates. (8) A close look at NILFs. (9) Retiring seniors. (10) The grim reaper is taking a toll on labor force too. (11) Foreign workers have gone back home. (12) Movie review: “No Time To Die” (-).

Facebook, Russian Gas & Green Shell
(1) Facebook took some hits. (2) Facebook’s AI needs to catch up to the bad guys. (3) Understanding the influence of algorithms. (4) Zuckerberg defends his baby. (5) Energy prices take a breather. (6) Putin tells Europe not to worry—he’s got plenty of natural gas. (7) Shell is turning green. (8) Shell is spending on wind, solar, biofuels, and CO2 disposal.

That ’70s Show?
(1) Panic Attack #70 comes with more baggage than usual. (2) Global energy crisis beats Evergrande for number #1 on worry list. (3) Lots of different reasons for energy troubles in Europe and China. (4) US oil and gas rig count remains low. (5) Weekly US oil output isn’t responding to higher oil prices. (6) Parts shortages slamming the brakes on auto sales. (7) More bad news from China: property developers in trouble and more tensions with Taiwan. (8) Tale of two scenarios. (9) Q3 fundamentals likely to be strong, while guidance will be unsettling.

People’s Bank of Amerika (FKA ‘the Fed’)
(1) A more populist Fed in 2022 with a new Fed chair. (2) Powell conversion to progressivism is too recent. (3) Yellen’s friends. (4) More FOMC seats opening up. (5) Fed may raise inflation target next year. (6) Day trading at the Fed. (7) Pay no attention to the dot plot behind the curtain. (8) Meet Lael Brainard. (9) The Fed is way behind the curve. (10) Meet Saule Omarova. (11) Amerika, the 1987 miniseries.

A Spell of Stagflation
(1) Consumers are experiencing stagflation currently. (2) Price increases offsetting most of the rise in personal income this year. (3) Real consumption of goods falling over past five months. (4) Delta and inflation surge depressing Consumer Optimism Index. (5) Costco is rationing some products. (6) Inventory restocking and capital spending should offset weak consumer spending. (7) Here is how government policies have been causing global supply-chain chaos and boosting inflation. (8) Climate change activists are depressing fossil fuel supplies faster than boosting renewable sources of energy, which are unreliable. (9) Powell is frustrated by inflationary supply bottlenecks that he helped cause. (10) Why raising taxes on corporations and pass-throughs is bad for jobs growth. (11) Movie review: “The Many Saints of Newark” (- -).

September, Energy, & Crypto
(1) Glad September is almost over. (2) Higher interest rates help S&P 500 Financials, and higher oil prices boost S&P 500 Energy. (3) Rising commodity and transport prices hit earnings. (4) Vietnam’s factory closures hurting US retailers. (5) Rising energy prices around the world raise questions about green energy. (6) The price of Europe’s carbon credits doubles this year. (7) China’s factories facing blackouts. (8) Everyone wants LNG, and the US is selling it. (9) Cryptocurrencies face criticism from Dimon and Gensler. (10) China ends debate and bans cryptocurrency transactions and mining. (11) Meet Mr. Goxx, a crypto-investing hamster.

Is Powell Transitory?
(1) Bonds are starting to make sense again. (2) Tapering is coming. (3) New tune on tapering in latest FOMC statement. (4) Powell says employment goal “all but met.” (5) Brainard agrees. (6) Copper/gold price ratio remains bearish for bonds. (7) Powell: Forget base effect and focus on supply bottlenecks. (8) Bullish and diversified for frequent rotations. (9) Financials and Energy get a turn to outperform. (10) DC’s sausage factory. (11) Powell, the Pivoter. (12) Is he as dangerous as Senator Warren says?

Some Good News, Some Bad News
(1) Cresting pandemic wave. (2) Back to pre-pandemic railcar loadings. (3) Ford is parking lots of unfinished trucks at Kentucky Speedway. (4) Record new orders with usual lag in shipments. (5) Q3 real GDP tracking at 3.2%. (6) Europe is providing a cautionary tale on outlook for energy availability and pricing. (7) Chevron’s CEO implies climate activists interfering with market signals. (8) President Xi facing two crises.

What Are the Odds?
(1) On the road in Cincinnati. (2) Lots to talk about. (3) The Roaring ’20s vs the Great Inflation of the ’70s. (4) Still placing 65/35 subjective odds. (5) Productivity growth is the key swing variable. (6) Manufacturing productivity growth decline coincided with US manufacturing capacity moving to China. (7) The case for reshoring has never been better. (8) A productivity boom would be good for real wages and profit margins. (9) Productivity growth collapsed during the 1970s. (10) Three inflation scenarios. (11) Climate change activists could leave us all out in the cold. (12) Movie review: “Nine Perfect Strangers” (+).

Natural Gas & Unnatural Exosuits
(1) Evergrande’s demise continues to unfold. (2) Watching for the ripple effects on the Chinese economy. (3) US companies may get caught in the morass. (4) Natural gas supplies becoming the world’s latest problem. (5) Less wind and low natural gas production leads to spiking prices. (6) Europe’s dependence on US/Russia natural gas imports grows. (7) Demand for LNG strong in Asia and Brazil too. (8) High gas prices have UK energy retailers going bust and fertilizer factories closing. (9) Sensitive robots with soft, smart attachments can pick up fruit and Peeps.

Animal Farm
(1) Gray rhinos, black swans, and blue angels. (2) Evergrande’s troubles started about a year ago with its first liquidity scare. (3) “Three red lines” regulation worsened liquidity crunch for property developers in recent months. (4) More cracks in the Great Wall of China. (5) Will this be the Great Fall of China? (6) Xi Jinping, Mao Zedong, and George Orwell. (7) Xi’s hard left turn. (8) Nine gray rhinos. (9) S&P 500 forward revenues, earnings, and profit margin all at record highs.

Too Grande To Fail?
(1) China’s Evergrande panic attack hits global stock markets. (2) Crash course in Evergrande. (3) “Massive” describes its scale, debt, and crisis. (4) Will it’s rescue also be massive? (5) Lehman or LTCM? (6) China should be building more nursing homes than apartment buildings. (7) Betting against a credit crunch. (8) Bullish for the dollar, bearish for commodity prices.

What’s the Matter?
(1) Panic Attack #70? (2) S&P 500 won’t double again anytime soon. (3) A very long stretch above 200-dma. (4) Narrowing breadth. (5) Dow Theory raising a caution flag in theory. (6) September and October are two bad months that often provide good buying opportunities. (7) Bull-Bear Ratio getting more bearish, which is bullish. (8) Nine items on the worry list. (9) Evergrande is #1 right now. Will it be Lehman or LTCM? (10) McConnell won’t play Dems’ game. (11) Missing parts. (12) Biden’s taxes on small businesses. (13) China and Russia playing war games.

Travel, Evergrande & Hydrogen
(1) Travel stocks looking better if US Delta cases have peaked. (2) Waiting for the return of the US business traveler. (3) Watching Covid case counts in China and new gambling rules in Macau. (4) Covid took a bite out of China’s August air travel and KFC sales. (5) Analysts’ net earnings revisions turn positive for S&P 500 travel-related industries. (6) Why we’re watching China’s very leveraged, very troubled, very large property developer Evergrande. (7) Angry Chinese consumers at Evergrande’s doorstep demand their money back. (8) Trucks and cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells give EVs a run for their money.

Inflation & Labor
(1) Powell scores a point. (2) Three moderating factors. (3) The spectrum of inflation forecasts. (4) Roaring 2020s vs Inflationary 1970s. (5) Inflation expectations remain elevated according to FRB-NY survey. (6) Small business owners raising prices. (7) Diminishing base effect. (8) Rent inflation on the rise. (9) Lots of job openings. (10) A woeful tale from businesses in Richmond area looking for workers.

Global Tapering Ahead?
(1) Central bankers are the new Wild Bunch. (2) Since start of pandemic, major central bank assets up 51%. (3) Major central bank assets growing at slower pace. (4) Add that to the stock market’s worries list. (5) Is ECB tapering or recalibrating? (6) ECB’s LTRO facility is a big hit. (7) ECB is also struggling with whether inflation is transitory or persistent. (8) BOJ preparing to end Kuroda’s excellent adventure. (9) PBOC likely to cut required reserves ratio. (10) Fed setting the stage for tapering before year-end.

Not So Transitory After All?
(1) Raising S&P 500 EPS by $5 per year through 2023. (2) Five quarterly earnings hooks in a row. (3) Forward earnings at another record high. (4) A long worry list is traditional this time of year. (5) No sign of a peak in August’s PPI. (6) Three broad measures of consumer prices aren’t pretty. (7) Almost $1.5 trillion in reverse repos at the Fed. (8) Bonds are awash in liquidity. (9) Fund flows contradict TINA. (10) Drilling down into the PPI rabbit hole.

Transportation, Supply Chains & Carbon Trading
(1) Some retailers’ shelves are looking a little sparse. (2) Watching the inventory-to-sales ratio slide. (3) Inventory stuck on trains, railroads, and boats. (4) More container ships are bobbing in the waters off the coast of Los Angeles than are at port. (5) Empty shipping containers are in the wrong locations. (6) Truck drivers still in short supply. (7) Prices throughout the shipping complex have surged. (8) Lots of optimism priced into railroad and trucking stocks. (9) The market for carbon credits may grow into a big business. (10) Traders, project developers, and verifiers all starting businesses.

Around the World
(1) Spreading Covid for the holidays. (2) Comparative pandemic waves around the world. (3) Israel leads the way. (4) US fiscal and monetary easing leaked abroad through US trade deficit. (5) Are commodity prices peaking? (6) Global PMIs showing global slowdown. (7) Chip shortage is tapping on global auto industry’s brakes. (8) US leading the global performance derby for forward revenues, forward earnings, and forward profit margins. (9) Comparing Go Global P/E to US Value P/E. (10) Stay Home still beating Go Global.

Let’s Get Real
(1) Slower GDP growth ahead. (2) Pent-up demand for goods has been satisfied. (3) Inflation is eroding purchasing power. (4) Real consumer spending flat for the past four months. (5) Auto industry’s lament: “Buddy, can you spare some chips?” (6) Priced out of the housing market. (7) Capital spending booming. (8) Plenty of room for restocking. (9) Covid still messing up the labor market. (10) Wages inflating. (11) Doves vs hawks on the FOMC. (12) Movie review: “A Private War” (+ + +).

Financials, China & Carbon
(1) Financials take the lead ytd in 2021’s homestretch. (2) Reversal of loan-loss reserves offsets low interest rates and slack loan growth. (3) Could Financials be signaling higher interest rates ahead? (4) China’s Xi continues to meddle. (5) This time, gamers, online algorithm users, and famous actors face new rules. (6) Chinese services economy, hurt by Covid resurgence, contracts in August. (7) Watching Chinese property giant’s $88 billion of distressed debt. (8) Examining ways to recycle captured carbon. (9) The CO2 for Coca-Cola’s bottled water comes out of thin air.

Modern Monetary Theory In Practice
(1) Forward earnings continue to lead S&P 500 to record highs. (2) Another crisis, another opportunity for politicians. (3) MMT on steroids and speed. (4) A guide to sausage making in DC. (5) Will moderate Democrats avert a progressive onslaught? (6) Powell’s inflation dashboard missing some dials. (7) Different measures of inflationary expectations show different readings. (8) Powell admits progress has been made, but continues to accentuate the negatives in the jobs market.

Corporate Finance For Fun & Profit
(1) Revenues and earnings continue to impress. (2) Both S&P and NIPA profit margins at record highs. (3) S&P 500 accounts for about 60% of NIPA profits. (4) Lots of S corporations in the mix. (5) Are companies offsetting rising costs with productivity, raising prices, or both? (6) Regional business surveys showing another increase in prices-received index as prices-paid index levels at record high. (7) Wage inflation not widespread yet. (8) The big risk is a wage-price spiral if productivity disappoints. (9) Corporate cash flow at record-high $3 trillion. (10) Corporations floating lots of new issues in Fed’s overflowing punchbowl.

Some Thoughts on Valuation
(1) Tapering before the end of the year. (2) Rate hikes not for a while. (3) Commercial banks facing big deposit inflows and weak loan demand buying bonds. (4) S&P 500 tracking Dividend Yield Model. (5) Are SMidCaps cheap or not? (6) Closer looks at S&P 500 vs Russell 1000 and S&P 600 vs Russell 2000. (7) Powell declares mission accomplished on inflation front. (8) July’s PCED inflation data still not confirming inflation is transitory. (9) Four regional business surveys showing possible peaks in prices-paid indexes, while prices-received indexes hit new highs in August. (10) Movie review: “Respect” (+ +).

The Beats Go On

(1) The opera ain’t over. (2) Q2 revenues and earnings growth beats will be hard to top for a while. (3) Another record high for profit margin. (4) Lots of upbeat surprises. (5) FOMC discussed tapering at July meeting. (6) November meeting likely to start tapering process. (7) Powell’s virtual lullaby. (8) Powell’s dashboard showing progress in the labor market with room for a bit more progress.

Alpha, Beta, and Delta
(1) Dovish comments from a Fed hawk. (2) FDA gives seal of approval to Pfizer vaccine. (3) Dr. G says Delta has peaked. (4) Mandating vaccinations. (5) From risk-on/risk-off to Delta-on/Delta-off. (6) A Productivity Portfolio for all seasons. (7) Is inflation coming or going? (8) The base effect should start wearing off soon. (9) Persistent shortage of new autos could continue to boost their prices. (10) Soaring home prices putting upward pressure on rent inflation. (11) How much longer will healthcare inflation remain subdued? (12) Inflationary pressures persist in price surveys.

Double, Double Toil & Trouble
(1) A very short history of S&P 500 doublings and 12 months after. (2) Likely to take a while for next doubling. (3) The arithmetic of getting to 5000 and then 10,000. (4) DJIA 70,000 in our future? (5) Pikes Peak of earnings growth. (6) Forward revenues, earnings, and profit margins all at record highs for S&P 500/400/600. (7) SMidCaps underperforming LargeCaps even though the former’s fundamentals are better. (8) Peaking economic growth confirmed by LEI, flash PMIs, and two regional business surveys.

Red Flag
(1) Hurricane season is here. (2) Stormy season ahead for stock market too. (3) Rooting for consolidation of 100% gain in S&P 500. (4) Three peaks—in economic growth, earnings growth, and policy stimulus. (5) Geopolitical risks rising. (6) Signs of a top in commodity prices and a bottom in the dollar. (7) Real retail sales are unreal in China. (8) President-for-life Xi needs more babies. (9) The world’s largest nursing home. (10) China uses America’s Afghanistan disaster to warn Taiwan. (11) Movie review: “Stillwater” (-).

Retail, Earnings & Carbon
(1) Consumers spending differently now. (2) Sweatpants are out, notebooks and pencils are in. (3) Target beats analysts’ target. (4) Lowe’s CEO still upbeat on housing. (5) TJX customers back to bargain shopping. (6) Analysts defy Delta and raise earnings forecasts. (7) Hoping carbon-capture technology can save the world. (8) The oil giants enter the carbon-capture game. (9) Gathering carbon from the air, chimneys, and tailpipes. (10) Turning captured CO2 back into fuel.

Searching for Peak Inflation
(1) Any pent-up demand left? (2) Business sales soared to new record high during June. (3) Restocking of depleted inventories should boost economic growth. (4) Factories are humming. (5) PCED inflation currently around 3.0%-4.0% should settle back down to 2.0%-2.5% later this year. (6) Should the Fed’s inflation target be raised from 2.0% to 3.0%? (7) Base effect having less effect on boosting inflation now. (8) Demand shock and supply shortages still boosting some prices. (9) Lots of inflationary pressures still in PPI, commodity prices, and prices-received indexes.

Reviewing Valuation
(1) Fed moving from outcome-based to outlook-based policymaking? (2) Brainard explains the difference between reactive and preemptive. (3) Clarida’s whacky outcomes speech. (4) Powell’s three conditions for rate hiking. (5) But, starting tapering and completing it comes first. (6) Falling behind the inflation curve. (7) Very wide spread between valuations of LargeCaps and SMidCaps. (8) Same can be said of Growth-vs-Value spread. (9) Mag-5 continues to dominate investment styles. (10) Investing in Value in US isn’t much more expensive than doing so overseas.

A Long & Winding Road
(1) Delta depresses consumer sentiment. (2) Fourth wave of the pandemic. (3) Dr. Gottlieb’s relatively reassuring outlook. (4) CCI is a better measure of consumer confidence than CSI. (5) Dopamine is the best drug for cabin fever. (6) YRI’s Earned Income Proxy at another record high. (7) Any pent-up demand left? (8) Mixed metaphor: Schumer claims to have crossed the finish line, but Pelosi has moved the goal post. (9) Are there enough workers and shovel-ready projects to get new infrastructure spending started? (10) Now, the hard part. (11) Movie review: “Mudland” (+ + +).

Consumers, Valuation & mRNA
(1) Just as the party got started…Covid’s back. (2) This wave may pass faster than the previous three. (3) Consumers have jobs and money to spare. (4) Southwest sees a Covid impact, but Wendy’s and Sysco say all’s good. (5) Strong earnings knocking most forward P/Es down. (6) Tech multiples rise slightly. (7) Surging oil and commodity prices send Energy and Materials forward P/Es falling. (8) Hoping mRNA can cure everything. (9) Moderna and BioNTech make much more than just Covid vaccines. (10) Personalized cancer cures may be in our future.

Speed Bumps & Headwinds
(1) A great leading indicator. (2) A business-cycle recovery on steroids and speed, but now what? (3) From tailwinds to headwinds. (4) The pandemic: It’s all Greek to me. (5) Slowdown ahead. Will it be normal or abnormal? (6) Parts shortages set the stage for more pent-up demand. (7) Small business owners can’t get enough help. (8) Liquidity growth is peaking too. (9) More tapering talk. (10) Productivity growth peak is a few years away and likely twice as fast as now. (11) “Substantial further progress” has been made. (12) Open for business with a record 10.1 million job openings.

Voluntary Self-Extinction Of the Human Race
(1) Stop breeding, says VHEMT. (2) Cost-benefit analysis of having kids. (3) Ag revolution caused migration from farms to cities. (4) Urbanization has depressed fertility rates. (5) Pandemic and climate change are also depressing births. (6) The most alarming UN report on climate change yet. (7) Fahrenheit 3.6. (8) MMT might actually make sense for increasingly geriatric nations. (9) Japan as a role model for for human self-extinction. (10) The world according to Garp: fertility, population, and urbanization. (11) China’s three-child policy. (12) US demographic trends should boost productivity.

Man of La Mancha
(1) Buenos dias. (2) Finding relief in Spain from cabin fever at home. (3) The Running of the Bulls has been canceled in Pamplona, but not on Wall Street. (4) Soaring earnings continue to drive the stampede of the charging bulls. (5) SMidCaps are very cheap relative to LargeCaps. (6) Supply constraints weighing on M-PMI. (7) Lots of unfilled orders to keep economy growing. (8) Memo to Powell: Substantial progress in the labor market. (9) No sign yet that inflation rebound is transitory. (10) Wage inflation stampeding in two industries. (11) Movie review: “The Titans That Built America” (+ + +).

Semis, Travel & Digital Dollars
(1) Semiconductor shortages still plaguing auto companies. (2) Imbalance of semi supply and demand may drag into 2022. (3) SIA reports positive worldwide sales in June. (4) Semi companies forecast to grow earnings in 2022 even after a blowout 2021. (5) Delta puts everyone on high alert. (6) Drivers clogging the roads. (7) Hotel occupancy has recovered, but not fully. (8) Expect to use a digital yuan at the Winter Olympics. (9) EU and Japan already testing digital currency. (10) Fed still studying digital dollar.

There Is No Place Like Home
(1) Hot in Atlanta. (2) Housing market is a mess. (3) Best cure for high home prices. (4) Would-be homebuyers bummed out and priced out. (5) New and existing home sales cool off. (6) Double-digit gains in home prices. (7) Housing inventories bottoming? (8) Falling vacancies for rental housing pushing up rents. (9) Evictions set to cause more turmoil in rental markets. (10) Homebuilding is in fits and starts. (11) Permits down sharply. (12) Materials costs and labor availability remain troublesome for homebuilders. (13) Assessing the outlook for S&P 500 Homebuilding.

Income & Wealth in America
(1) A forthcoming exposé of corporate profits. (2) In summary: Profits beat the alternatives. (3) Profits drive widespread prosperity, which always entails some inequality. (4) Income mobility offsets income inequality. (5) America has evolved into a nation of proprietors. (6) Pass-through business owners personally account for at least 25% of employment! (7) Number of taxpayers in lowest income bracket has been declining. (8) Tax return data show upward income mobility. (9) Wealth inequality increases during periods of prosperity too. (10) The wealthy tend to be heavily invested in equities, which appreciate most during good times. (11) Real estate and pension entitlements more equitably distributed. (12) Adding Social Security as a retirement asset reduces wealth inequality significantly.

S&P 5000!
(1) S&P 500 earnings still outpacing expectations. (2) Our target for S&P 500 is 5000 by year-end 2022. (3) Betting on continuation of elevated forward P/E. (4) Tech-related companies should continue to boost productivity and profit margins, and to prop up valuation too. (5) A bullish spin on US-China Cold War. (6) Industry analysts expect earnings winners in 2022 to be in S&P 500 Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Energy sectors. (7) 2023 earnings laggards expected to be Financials and Materials. (8) Normal forward P/E converging with normalized forward P/E. (9) Reversal of fortune for banks as loan loss reserves get back to normal. (10) Joe knocked down Tesla’s LTEG earlier this year. (11) Joe explains why LTEG is so high again.

The Fed, US Growth, China, and Cryptos
(1) Fed in no rush to tighten. (2) Comparing June and July FOMC statements. (3) 2020’s recession was the shortest ever. (4) Solid gains in latest durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and Q2 earnings. (5) China changing the rules and spooking investors. (6) China’s VIEs: What exactly do US investors own? (7) China’s new nuclear missile base and military flights near Taiwan are alarming. (8) China’s laundry list of domestic headaches. (9) Senator Warren puts crypto on notice. (10) Spring Labs solves defi’s know-your-customer dilemma. (11) Is bitcoin in Amazon’s future?

European Tour
(1) UK as a test case of virus variant vs vaccine. (2) Freedom vs mandates. (3) Economic Sentiment Indicator soaring in Eurozone. (4) Flash PMI highest in 21 years in Eurozone. (5) ECB following the Fed’s lead on inflation targeting. (6) Like the Fed, ECB in no rush to tighten. (7) Better never than late? EU finally ready to provide pandemic fiscal stimulus. (8) EMU MSCI has been lagging US MSCI since last year’s bottom. (9) US outpacing EMU in forward revenues and earnings race.

Hot Metals
(1) Commodity price indexes at or near record highs. (2) Metals prices are mostly still red hot. (3) Easy money can explain high commodity prices and low bond yields. (4) Rising commodity prices tend to boost S&P 500 revenues and earnings. (5) Earnings Confidence Index is making a comeback. (6) Regional business surveys still finding strong growth and plenty of inflationary pressures. (7) More upside in leading indicators. (8) LEI/CEI ratio tracks S&P 500 profit margin.

Longest Bull Market On Record
(1) S&P 500 immune to Delta variant of Covid? (2) Pace of vaccinations likely to quicken as Delta makes the evening news. (3) Fed policy not immune to Delta. (4) Comparing the current meltup to the 1999 ascent. (5) Earnings meltup has been leading stock prices higher since last spring. (6) S&P 500 forward P/E still stuck at 22.0. (7) Analysts’ consensus long-term earnings growth expectations are broadly insanely high. (8) The Mag-5 continues to set the fashion trend for all the major investment styles. (9) Amazingly wide spread between forward P/Es of S&P 500 LargeCaps and S&P 400/600 SMidCaps. (10) Movie review: “The Mosquito Coast” (+).

Transports, Tech & Fintech
(1) Surging imports signal continued strong US economic recovery. (2) Demand is outstripping J.B. Hunt’s capacity. (3) Supply chain in knots. (4) Delays at the ports and on the rails. (5) Truck drivers in demand and getting higher wages. (6) Tech’s wide margins may attract regulatory scrutiny. (7) Traditional banks face growing fintech competition. (8) Square enters small business lending, and Robinhood goes public. (9) Defi uses no bankers, only blockchain. (10) The Wild West of banking.

Taking Stock
(1) A weak panic attack over the past week. (2) A fourth Delta-led wave of the pandemic would boost vaccination pace. (3) Oil price dropped on Monday on OPEC+ deal to supply more oil, not on weak demand. (4) US petroleum usage back at 2019 record high. (5) Financials have more earnings power stashed in loan loss reserves. (6) Economic reopening fundamentals remain bullish. (7) Industrial production of technology hardware still soaring in record-high territory. (8) Industrials have record orders. (9) Record highs for S&P 500 forward revenues, earnings, and profit margin. (10) Bond yield is influencing stock market investment styles. (11) The jobless benefits vs jobs debate. (12) Kids just got more affordable.

Bond Conundrum Explained
(1) A year of bond-market conundrums. (2) An old stock-market adage applies to the bond market now too. (3) Bond yields fall despite four months of higher-than-expected CPI inflation. (4) Powell’s four pandemic-related reasons not to rush to tighten. (5) The next inflationary shock likely to be in wages. (6) A few bearish indicators for bonds. (7) Fed’s bullish impact on bonds amplified by flood of deposits commercial banks forced to invest in bonds. (8) OPEC+ deal greases bond yields’ slippery slope. (9) Powell vs Greenspan conundrums.

Depersonalization-Derealization Disorder
(1) A distressing disorder about dealing with reality. (2) Pandemic of the unvaccinated. (3) Did Euro 2020 spread Delta? (4) UK opens up as Covid outlook turns “quite scary.” (5) Plenty of stimulus left in M2 and order backlogs. (6) Restaurant sales at record high. (7) NY and Philly business surveys show inflationary boom continuing in July. (8) Fed is suppressing bond market’s opinion. (9) S&P 500 Growth boosted by drop in bond yield. (10) Is China preparing an invasion of Taiwan and a preemptive nuclear attack on Japan?

Peak Earnings Growth & Biden’s Competition Plan
(1) Q2 marks peak earnings growth for current cycle. (2) M-PMI dips in June, but still signals earnings growth ahead. (3) As earnings growth slows, so may stock gains. (4) Federal agencies get Biden’s marching orders on boosting business competition. (5) Tech, healthcare, agriculture, and transportation industries are among those targeted. (6) Stocks shrug off threat of increased regulations. (7) Meet the progressive lawyers with their fingerprints on Biden’s plans. (8) Small electric airplanes taking flight.

Inflationary Boom Continues
(1) Fed’s wish to overshoot inflation target has come true. (2) The temporary base-effect-and-bottleneck theory of inflation (BEABTI) is getting harder to believe. (3) CPI got hotter in June. (4) Base and baseless effects. (5) Are inflationary expectations well anchored? (6) More small businesses passing higher costs to higher selling prices. (7) ECB adopts FAITH. (8) Tapering will follow substantial progress. (9) Handicapping odds of Biden’s tax plans.

Yielding to the Central Banks
(1) Lots of central banks filling up the punch bowl. (2) PBOC cuts reserve requirement to boost bank lending. (3) Lots of punch for global stock and bond markets. (4) The Fed is TIPSy. (5) Bond yields are unreal, as even junk yields fall below inflation rate. (6) S&P 500 dividend yield falls below 2.00% on the way to 1.00%. (7) Millions more S corporations than S&P 500 corporations. (8) S corporations boosting corporate profits but not corporate taxes. (9) A new study on profits.

Variants & Other Strangers
(1) Nasty little, free-riding, living-dead mutants. (2) Variants of concern. (3) Following the Greek alphabet: Alpha through Delta so far. (4) Israel’s latest data. (5) No spectators in Tokyo’s Olympic stadiums. (6) China’s vaccine challenged by Delta. (7) Keeping score. (8) Distorted signal from Fed-rigged bond market. (9) Supply-side challenges include shortages of labor, chips, and homes for sale. (10) Capital spending is booming. (11) Investment styles mutating on a daily basis. (12) Movie review: “Nobody” (+ +).

From China with Love No More
(1) Semi shortages hurting autos, helping semi companies. (2) Ford caught flat footed, suffers the most. (3) Toyota’s bet on auto sales rebound pays off. (4) Countries consider semiconductor companies a national treasure. (5) May worldwide chip sales surpass 2018 peak. (6) The list of aggressive moves by the Chinese government grows longer. (7) China’s latest crackdown on its tech companies hits US IPO investors’ pocket books. (8) WHO investigation into origin of Covid-19 stymied. (9) Was the Wuhan Military World Games a super-spreader event? (10) Xi speech minces no words. (11) Take a trip to The Metaverse.

Inflationary Expectations
(1) Powell says inflationary expectations still well anchored. (2) Powell is relieved that Fed doesn’t have the same problem with sliding inflation as ECB and BOJ do. (3) Powell should set up dashboard for key inflation indicators. (4) One-year and three-year inflationary expectations currently at 4.0% and 3.6% according to FRBNY survey. (5) Americans most hurt by inflation see more of it than others do. Are they more alert to it? (6) Other surveys also show elevated short-term inflationary expectations. (7) Wage pressures rose during Q2. (8) Earned Income Proxy at record high.

Earnings-Led Slo-Mo MAMU
(1) Comparing current MAMU to 1999 meltup. (2) S&P 500 stunt plane flying through the vapor trails of the Blue Angels. (3) Why has the forward P/E held up so well around 22? (4) Revenues and profit margin fuel V-shaped recovery in earnings. (5) Peak in M-PMI consistent with peak growth rates in revenues and earnings. (6) Decelerating gains for S&P 500 ahead. (7) S&P 500 at 4800 sooner or later? (8) A good week for FAAMGs. (9) Updating the four investment styles. (10) Stay Home still beating Go Global. (11) Bonds disconnected from reality by Fed and foreign bond purchases. (12) Tapering should resolve the bond market conundrum. (13) Fed is now money market mutual fund of last resort. (14) Movie review: “No Sudden Move” (+).

Jobs, Drought & Commodities
(1) Lots of help-wanted signs may mean 4% unemployment is around the corner. (2) Few say jobs are hard to get. (3) Our bet: Tapering starts after September Fed meeting. (4) Heat wave exacerbates drought in the West. (5) Farmers opt not to farm. (6) Watching fruit and veggie prices. (7) Wells running dry, towns sinking, and price of water skyrocketing. (8) San Fran Fed watching impact of climate on economy. (9) Lumber and copper prices drop, while steel holds at the highs.

Margins, Productivity & Housing
(1) They are all tech companies now. (2) How to construct a Productivity Portfolio. (3) Searching for and finding some uptrends in profit margins. (4) The Phillips Curve model isn’t dead, but it isn’t real either. (5) Regional prices-paid and prices-received indexes peaking. (6) Harvard housing study is a Biden policy document. (7) Are institutional investors to blame for the housing shortage?

Rapidly Rotating Styles
(1) Churning underneath the calm surface. (2) Blaming it on TINA. (3) In the broad-bull-market camp. (4) In the sooner-rather-than-later camp on Fed tapering. (5) More churning ahead as earnings growth slows and Fed tightens. (6) Hard to see a correction with M2 up $5.0 trillion since January 2020. (7) Cash has been the painful alternative to stocks. (8) Mag-5 and the four investment styles. (9) Lower-wage workers account for 81% of private payrolls and 68% of wages and salaries.

The Facts of Life & Death
(1) Country music played backwards. (2) On the road with Ivanka. (3) Hot chicken in the Athens of Tennessee. (4) Mutating virus. (5) Pandemic exacerbated demographic trends. (6) Fewer babies, more seniors. (7) Retiring Boomers. (8) Labor shortages likely to stimulate productivity growth. (9) Getting older in America. (10) Too many white collars, not enough blue collars. (11) Lower wages rising twice as fast as higher wages. (12) Is inflation just passing through? (13) Tapering timeline. (14) Movie review: “The Gentlemen” (+).

Plastics, Earnings & AI
(1) Mother Nature has been inflating plastics prices via weather and Covid. (2) Help wanted at plastic plants. (3) Watching recent jump in oil and gas prices. (4) Commodity Chemical industry earnings soar this year but peter out in 2022. (5) Checking out 2022 S&P 500 earnings. (6) Industrials and Consumer Discretionary sectors maintain their leadership next year. (7) Materials and Financials not so much. (8) The US military embraces data and AI. (9) A disturbing view of machine-based warfare.

Peak Earnings Growth
(1) Q2 marked the peak in GDP and earnings growth. (2) Decelerating gains. (3) S&P 500 has had a V88.8 rebound. (4) Our updated S&P 500 targets for this year and next year: 4300-4700 and 4400-4800. (5) Lower wages up twice as fast as higher wages over the past 24 months. (6) Existing home prices up 24.4% y/y, frustrating would-be buyers. (7) No shortage of price increases. (8) Powell is ready to talk about tapering at next FOMC meeting. (9) ECB on autopilot while awaiting fiscal stimulus. (10) ECB hits 2% inflation target. (11) Inflation remains MIA in Japan.

Looking Under the Hood
(1) Will services boom follow goods boom? (2) Fixing up our house. (3) National parks crammed with too many humans seeking communion with nature. (4) Hint of rotation from goods to services in retail sales. (5) US manufacturing has been flatlining since China entered WTO. (6) Lean inventories should continue to boost domestic production and imports too. (7) Light, medium, and heavy trucks are all in high demand. (8) No sign of tech slowdown. (9) Construction industry hitting an affordability wall? (10) Climate-change activists capping oil wells? (11) Defense & space still flying high.

Stocks, Inflation & The Productivity Portfolio
(1) Tapering tantrum time? (2) We weren’t surprised by hawkish drift in dots. (3) Stocks beat bonds as inflation hedges. (4) Rising costs can squeeze profit margins unless they are offset by raising selling prices or boosting productivity. (5) Revenues and earnings tend to rise faster than prices. (6) Real earnings yield, which is currently bearish, is highly correlated with other leadings economic indicators, which are currently bullish. (7) Real dividend yield isn’t a useful market timing tool. (8) Valuation and the Misery Index. (9) Movie review: “Oslo” (+ + +).

Powell, Earnings, FAANGs & Robots
(1) Fed’s dots paint a new picture. (2) Powell’s talking about talking about tapering. (3) Might tapering begin in September? (4) Expecting blockbuster Q2 earnings and record GDP. (5) Post-Covid ad-spending surge helps Facebook and Google. (6) Netflix hurt by competition from Disney and the outdoors. (7) Tech regulatory threats grow. (8) Tech shares no longer leading the market. (9) Welcome to the Fourth Industrial Revolution. (10) Faster and cheaper computers and sensors creating better robots. (11) Robots improve companies’ efficiency and productivity.

Credit & Wealth
(1) Jamie Dimon’s warning and positive spin. (2) Credit card debt and business loans are down. (3) Loan losses are MIA. (4) Corporations have lots of bond debt and lots of cash. (5) Lots of homeowners with lots of homeowners’ equity. (6) Household net worth rose to a record high along with stock market and home prices during the pandemic. (7) The 1% have been getting wealthier faster thanks to their equity portfolios. (8) Residential real estate and pension entitlements are more equitably distributed. (9) The Millennials will inherit lots of wealth. (10) Billionaires aren’t like the rest of us.

Move Along, Nothing To See
(1) Old saying in the pits. (2) Commodity prices providing clearer signal than bond yields. (3) Broken lumber. (4) Dust bowl of 2021? Drought out West getting worse. (5) Chinese fattening up their pigs with US grains. (6) US oil production remains depressed. (7) China tapping on the brakes? (8) Rising commodity prices boosting S&P 500 revenues, earnings, and margins. (9) Strong profits + labor shortages = capital spending boom. (10) Technology production at record high led by computer & peripheral equipment.

The Greatest Punchbowl on Earth
(1) Conundrum in the bond market. (2) Powell’s mantra. (3) The future of ZIRP. (4) Japanese yields vs the copper/gold ratio. (5) A second month of base affected CPI gains. (6) Tsunami of liquidity. (7) Banks drowning in deposits, while loan demand is weak. (8) Overnight repos at the Fed. (9) Buddy, can you spare a muni? (10) Tipsy. (11) Taxing jobless benefits. (12) Tug-of-war between the Fed and inflation. (13) Are the Bond Vigilantes dead again already or just taking a siesta? (14) Movie review: “Halston” (+ + +).

From China with Love
(1) China’s Xi aims for a kinder, gentler image. (2) Vigil for Tiananmen Square massacre prohibited in Hong Kong, but brave residents come out anyway. (3) Companies and individuals looking to leave the changed city. (4) Chinese technology companies face tighter rules at home. (5) Yet China’s rulers count on tech companies to help the country win on the world stage. (6) Chinese vessels still intimidating in the South China Sea. (7) Chinese planes menace Taiwan. (8) China’s economy faces tougher comps and rising producer prices. (9) Turning coal ash into rare earth metals is a win-win-win.

Anatomy of the Bull Market
(1) Corrections, bears, and bulls. (2) The market knows best, usually. (3) Outlook for the four investment styles. (4) Staying with the outperforming sectors since September 1, 2020. (5) Breadth measures showing broad bull market. (6) Broad bull market should continue to benefit SMidCaps, with outperforming forward earnings. (7) How much downside for Growth-to-Value ratio? (8) The valuation case for staying home in Value. (9) Why have the Bond Vigilantes taken a siesta? (10) Europe is lagging the US on pandemic front and still in recovery rather than expansion mode. (11) EU’s pandemic relief is actually a green new deal. (12) When will the ECB start tapering?

Another Jolt of Inflation Ahead
(1) Base effect: Nothing to see here; keep walking, please. (2) Shortages should be transitory too, so say Fed officials. (3) Inflation targets vs trajectories. (4) A baseless case for 2.0%. (5) Inflation is a tax. (6) Fighting Mother Nature’s deflationary forces. (7) Demand and supply shocks. (8) A three-month perspective on inflation. (9) Drilling down into the CPI. (10) A few things to worry about: costs of gasoline, food, used cars, and rent. (11) Wage inflation is picking up.

Can Washington Lift Wages?
(1) The meaning of full employment. (2) Lots of turnover in labor market. (3) Frictional unemployment reflects geographic and skills mismatches. (4) Plenty of job openings. (5) 25 states say no to federal jobless benefits. (6) Checking off Powell’s check list. (7) Timing tapering. (8) Confusing employment data. (9) Another record high for wages and salaries. (10) Biden wants to raise wages, which he erroneously claims are lowest in 70 years! (11) The myth of income stagnation, again. (12) Bullish outlook for real pay in Roaring 2020s scenario. (13) Broad-based rebound in corporate earnings fuels broad-based bull market. (14) Movie review: “Mare of Easttown” (+ +).

Biden, Oil, and Solar
(1) Biden’s $6 trillion budget proposed. (2) Administration banks on low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates. (3) Higher taxes don’t prevent deeper deficits. (4) Debating the definition of infrastructure. (5) Shell gets shellacked by court ruling. (6) Climate change court cases on the rise. (7) Will CO2 emissions fall or just shift to new players? (8) Massachusetts may be next to require new homes have solar. (9) Finding new surfaces for solar panels.

Booms & Busts
(1) The next recession. (2) Big blow to Big Oil. (3) US oil field output remains depressed, as does the rig count. (4) US oil demand almost fully recovered. (5) Iran is a wild card. (6) Demand and supply shocks. (7) A business cycle on fast forward. (8) Inflationary pressures galore. (9) Great for profits and capital spending, for now. (10) Booms are followed by bananas. (11) Lots of reasons for labor shortages.

More Inflation Ahead
(1) Serling vs Hitchcock. (2) Lots of head-spinning developments. (3) The 1920s vs the 1970s. (4) The Roaring 2020s vs The Great Inflation 2.0. (5) Subjective probabilities of 65/35, down from 70/30. (6) T-Fed vs the 5Ds. (7) Jamie Dimon’s warning. (8) A week of big wins for climate-change activists and OPEC+. (9) Rising risk of higher oil prices and weaker dollar. (10) California’s drought worsens. (11) So much cash and so many shortages. (12) Who is liquid and why? (13) Q1 was an amazingly good quarter for earnings. (14) Movie review: “Vertigo” (+ +).

Tapering, Crypto & The Drought
(1) Clarida’s just the latest Fed head to talk about talking about tapering. (2) Treasury market takes tapering talk in stride. (3) What’s in Fed’s inflation tool kit? (4) Western drought forcing tough decisions on the farm. (5) Keeping an eye on fruit and veggie prices. (6) With strong FQ-2, Deere says farmers doing great and buying equipment. (7) Fed studies digital dollar, while crypto financial ecosystem flourishes. (8) China’s regulators cracking down on crypto trading and mining. (9) Lots of crypto banking services outside of the banking system. (10) DeFi even trickier for regulators to control. (11) Mark Cuban sees a future filled with smart contracts on the blockchain.

Earnings-Led Meltup!
(1) S&P 500 forward earnings go from lagging to leading the market. (2) Forward revenues, earnings, and profit margin all at record highs. (3) S&P 500 operating earnings up 47% during Q1. (4) No sign that rising costs are squeezing profit margins. (5) Solid productivity pop during Q1. (6) An update on sausage making in Washington. (7) There’s still some hope that checks and balances will rein in progressives’ wish list.

More Tapering Talk
(1) How many is “a number” of participants? (2) Tapering sooner rather than later? (3) Two hawks and three doves. (4) More states are cutting jobless benefits. (5) Plenty of job openings. (6) Camps and schools are reopening. (7) Will Powell pivot again? (8) Fed’s word games. (9) Bond market conundrum 2.0. (10) Few signs of tapering tantrum in the bond market or in stock market forward P/Es. (11) Valuation multiples down for Mag-5 and overseas stocks.

Not That ’70s Show
(1) Inflation was so 1970s! (2) Comparing the 2020s to the 1970s. (3) Wages soared while productivity crashed during the Great Inflation. (4) This time, productivity may be making a comeback. (5) The risk is a wage-price spiral. (6) Dopamine demand shock plus policy stimulus shock boosting inflation now. (7) No shortage of shortages. (8) Buddy, can you spare a house? (9) Rent inflation could make a comeback. (10) US provides the world’s economy with a shot in the arm. (11) Brief world tour. (12) Movie review: “Godfather of Harlem” (+ + +).

Tapering, Housing & Batteries
(1) Fed’s April minutes never say “tapering” but imply it’s coming. (2) Elevated valuations get a shout-out. (3) Rate hiking could start before mid-2022. (4) Everyone has a housing tale. (5) After a long run, housing stocks pull back. (6) High lumber and steel and copper prices … oh my! (7) Rising construction industry wages add to pressure. (8) Homeowners across the country enjoy double-digit price increases. (9) Watching inventories and mortgage rates. (10) Solid-state electric vehicle batteries could be a game changer. (11) Checking out Harvard, Toyota, QuantumScape, and Solid Power.

Over-the-Top Earnings
(1) Are inflationary booms good for profits? (2) Winners and losers in an inflationary boom. (3) Nominal GDP and business sales confirm inflationary boom. (4) Bullish for S&P 500 revenues. (5) Q1 earnings rose twice as fast as expected. (6) S&P 500 forward earnings is flying. (7) Forward profit margin sets another record high despite rising costs. (8) What’s behind the Baby Bust? (9) Unmarried Millennials. (10) Freaked out by the pandemic and climate change. (11) Too many singles, not enough babies.

The Technology Imperative
(1) Technology rules the business world. (2) We are all in the cloud now. (3) Tech still accounts for a quarter of S&P 500’s market cap and a fifth of its earnings. (4) Tech is more powerful, more useful, and cheaper than ever. (5) S&P 500 excluding Tech and excluding the Mag-5. (6) A few examples of low-tech companies using high-tech to boost profit margins. (7) The proof is in the profit margins and spending on tech. (8) A word of caution. (9) Value’s turn to outperform for a while. (10) Cryptocurrencies: nothing to fear but government bans. (11) Tulips and dotcoms.

Inflationary Boom or What Else?
(1) Reagan & Volcker versus Biden & Powell. (2) Different spins on the inflationary boom from pessimists and optimists. (3) Tech-led productivity is the only way out of this mess. (4) Too many college graduates. (5) The meaning of post-pandemic life. (6) Fear of shortages versus fear of inflation. (7) Business cycle on fast track. (8) Base-effect inflation should diminish in coming months, but rent inflation could rebound. (9) Two conflicting measures of medical care services inflation. (10) Inflation remains subdued according to Cleveland Fed’s median CPI. (11) Movie review: “The Woman in the Window” (+).

CPI, Retailing & 2022
(1) CPI jump mostly about, but not solely, a base effect. (2) Used cars and home-related goods get pricier. (3) Amazon and Tesla dragging down the Consumer Discretionary sector’s ytd returns. (4) Most other Consumer Discretionary industries are having a good year. (5) Taking a look at 2022 S&P 500 earnings. (6) Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Energy seen having fastest earnings growth next year. (7) Boom in Materials ends if analysts are right. (8) Looking at Elon Musk’s other companies. (9) Monkeys playing Pong telepathically. (10) Boring underground to relieve traffic.

On the Margin
(1) Is it time for a correction or just more rotation? (2) Technical indicators show too much bullishness. (3) Selling on awesome earnings news. (4) Getting tipsy about inflation. (5) Small business owners raising prices like its 1981. (6) An unprecedented V-shaped economic and earnings recovery. (7) A first-quarter earnings season for the record books. (8) Upward revisions galore. (9) No sign that rising costs are squeezing margins so far. (10) Early-cycle productivity “pop.” (11) Broadening bull.

The Opera Ain’t Over Until Papi Sings
(1) The DarkSide is holding America up for ransom. (2) Ransomware gangs don’t take cash or checks. Bitcoin accepted here. (3) Are cryptocurrencies similar to viruses? (4) Will governments ban them? (5) Yellen’s senior moment. (6) Before tightening, Powell wants to see crowds gathering, jobless benefits run out, and schools reopen. (7) Powell’s dashboard: no green light for tapering yet. (8) The Fed issues a hedgy note on financial stability risk. (9) Powell and Brainard: He said, she said.

Bad & Good Inflation News
(1) Tales of two employment surveys. (2) How many workers are actually unemployed? (3) Our Earned Income Proxy jumped to new record high in April. (4) Strange employment readings for different industries. (5) It pays to stay home rather than to go to work. (6) Biden seeks to build on legacy of progressive presidents. (7) The anti-Reagan. (8) Input costs continue to soar, and shortages are a big problem. (9) Productivity usually pops during recoveries and is doing it again. (10) Labor costs actually fell during Q1. (11) Profit margins still recovering despite cost pressures. (12) What are wages up to? (13) Movie review: “The Serpent” (+ + +).

Talkative Yellen, Chip Shortage, and Bad Drought
(1) The Fairy Godmother causes mini taper tantrum. (2) Boom times at semiconductor companies. (3) Shortages may end just-in-time purchasing. (4) New capacity may take years—not quarters—to build. (5) Temperatures are heating up out West. (6) Tech companies creating gadgets and apps to help with drought. (7) Farming moves indoors and goes vertical. (8) Solar panels coexist with crops.

Crushing Earnings
(1) Earnings on a hot streak. (2) A remarkable earnings hook. (3) Earnings now expected to be up 30% this year. (4) Analysts predicting record-high profit margin. (5) Forward earnings rising in record-high territory. (6) Earnings surprises are widespread. (7) Insanely stimulative policies driving earnings charge. (8) Raising our revenues, earnings, and profit margin forecasts. (9) Just-in-time inventory shortages. (10) A whiff of stagflation in latest M-PMI. (11) The shortage of workers is structural.

JRB & FDR
(1) The end of prohibition. (2) FDR, LBJ, and JRB expand the social welfare state. (3) Lots of plans to Build Back Better. (4) The anti-Reagan is pro-unions. (5) Reversing PATCO. (6) Raising wages by decree. (7) Amazon cares about its workers, so they don’t care to unionize. (8) $15 is becoming the new $10 for hourly pay. (9) Trickle-down wage increases from Amazon and Walmart. (10) Will Biden restart the wage-price spiral? (11) Wage inflation measures remain subdued, but not for long. (12) Is a refundable child tax credit the start of a universal basic income?

Taxing Matters
(1) Third round of relief checks. (2) Record increase to record high in personal income. (3) Personal saving at record high. (4) Plenty of liquidity available to push real GDP to record highs over rest of 2021. (5) Why raising tax rates may not raise tax revenues. (6) Economic growth is the best driver of tax revenues. (7) Tax expenditures are a sinkhole of exemptions and deductions. (8) Taxing capital gains. (9) The One Percent is paying more than 40% of federal income taxes. Isn’t that enough? (10) Trump’s tax cut benefitted people who probably hired more people with their tax windfalls. (11) Movie review: “Quo Vadis, Aida?” (+ + +).

Hubris Goeth Before a Fall
(1) Off-base inflation assumptions. (2) Fiscal and monetary policies sending demand well above supply. (3) Not-so-transient inflation may force Fed action. (4) Beware taper tantrums. (5) China’s latest misdeeds. (6) Tesla bows to Chinese government’s pressure. (7) Companies opting out of China. (8) Chinese censors cancel director’s Oscar win. (9) China’s Orwellian campaign goes global. (10) World leaders waking up. (11) From jeans to genes. (12) A look at the picks and shovels in genomics.

Profitable Corporations
(1) Great fundamentals for S&P 500. (2) Earnings jumped about 50% during H2-2020, with revenues up about 15% and margin up 30%. (3) Impressive and surprisingly widespread rebound in profit margin. (4) Rising costs weigh on profit margins of users but boost margins of suppliers. (5) Analysts continue to raise their earnings estimates for this year. (6) Biden corporate tax hike likely to take a bite next year. (7) Floating on a sea of liquidity. (8) Capital markets wide open. (9) Government’s visible lending hand averted widespread bankruptcies. (10) SPACs’ shell game may be over now that there is a new sheriff at the SEC.

Inflation: The Japanese Model
(1) Something very Zen about Japan. (2) Japan’s population is shrinking and aging rapidly. (3) Japanese government debt at 220% of GDP. (4) Flat nominal GDP for 24 years. (5) Prolonged period of deflation. (6) Japan has been doing MMT for at least a decade. (7) Used car prices soaring. (8) Missing chips. (9) Soaring home prices could soon boost rents. (10) PPI inflation rates heating up some more in US and Asia. (11) CPI inflation rates remain subdued in US, Eurozone, and Asia. (12) Extreme alternative inflation scenarios: Japan now vs Germany from 1921-23.

New World Disorder
(1) Head-spinning stuff. (2) A chat with a Canadian surgeon in a pool in Florida. (3) India’s disaster. (4) Three red-hot US regional business surveys. (5) Home prices are on fire. (6) A shortage of blue-collar workers. (7) Prices-paid and prices-received indexes continued to soar in April. (8) Speed bumps for SPACs, cryptocurrencies, and stock prices. (9) Outperforming investment styles underperforming recently. (10) Bad actors: Putin and Xi. (11) Bond Vigilantes taking a siesta. (12) Movie review: “I Care a Lot” (+ +).

Banks and DApps
(1) Crosscurrents in banking. (2) Banks’ deposits are up, and borrowing is down. (3) Companies don’t need bank loans. (4) Banks holding lots of Treasuries and cash. (5) Net interest margins feeling the squeeze. (6) Released reserves save the day. (7) Introducing dApps. (8) Bitcoin may dominate payments, but Ethereum dominates dApps. (9) Keeping an eye on the Binance Smart Chain.

Stimulus Shock
(1) Cookies and politicians. (2) Addicted to sugar. (3) Beef, pork, and mystery meat in pandemic relief acts. (4) Handy crib sheet to keep fiscal spending score. (5) Running out of workers to “Build, Back, Better.” (6) Employers need workers who can spare some time to work for a living. (7) Small business owners have lots of job openings. (8) Tight labor markets likely to boost wages. (9) Small business owners raising prices and expect to continue doing so. (10) Earnings enjoying the sugar high. (11) Mag-5 plus Tesla dominate their S&P 500 sectors.

For Whom the Bull Tolls
(1) Happy vs sad theme songs. (2) Old stock market adages. (3) Waiting for the next panic attack. (4) The relevance of Ernest Hemingway. (5) Contrarians say the sun also sets. (6) Too much bullish sentiment? (7) MMT + TINA = MAMU. (8) Margin debt again. (9) Into the weeds of Biden’s proposal to increase corporate tax revenues. (10) GILTI as sin. (11) A tax even Europeans don’t like.

The Off-the-Charts Economy
(1) Relief checks fuel retail buying spree. (2) GDPNow tracking at 8.3% for Q1. (3) Lots of record highs in major retail sales categories. (4) Gasoline usage almost fully recovered. (5) Housing-related retail sales booming. (6) Business sales are bullish for S&P 500 revenues. (7) Lean inventories set stage for even more economic strength in coming months. (8) NY and Philly business survey are on fire. (9) Tug of war in the bond market: Shoguns vs Vigilantes. (10) The Fed’s talking heads can’t stop talking. (11) More backward-looking forward guidance. (12) Movie review: “The Courier” (+ +).

China Trouble
(1) Waking up to China’s hostile agenda. (2) China’s military might is on show on the South China Sea and near Taiwan’s airspace. (3) Hong Kong is officially under China’s thumb. (4) CEOs learn to bite their tongues to do business in China. (5) Foreign CEOs may soon find they need to pick sides. (6) Hackers and spies and lies—oh, my! (7) Chinese stocks had a great 2020, but tough start to 2021. (8) A digital yuan could push US pols and regulators to get moving on a digital dollar.

Government Gone Wild
(1) Off-the-charts fiscal policies. (2) Nonstop handouts. (3) Swelling outlays swell federal budget deficit. (4) Treasury spending on Income Security soars. (5) Government spends mostly on redistributing income now. (6) Shrinking the tax base isn’t a good way to increase tax receipts. (7) MMT tells politicians it’s alright to spend more until inflation makes a comeback. (8) Helicopter Ben was wrong about the delivery aircraft. (9) Lots of government social benefits to persons. (10) An update on the Magnificent Five.

Outlook vs Outcome, Preempting vs Reacting
(1) Did you get the Fed’s latest memo? (2) Here’s the message again: We are in no rush to raise rates. (3) Reacting to outcomes rather than preempting outlooks. (4) Pandemic changed Fed’s reaction function. (5) Forward-looking vs backward-looking guidance. (6) Powell’s latest super-dovish interview. (7) Redefining a recovery. (8) Powell’s latest spin on asset bubbles and the Archegos incident. (9) Is Powell channeling Greenspan’s 2008 shocking admission? (10) Another Great Inflator? (11) Clarida explains it all. (12) QE4ever by the numbers. (13) Q1 earnings season by the numbers.

Rocket Fuel
(1) Bowie beats out Prince for this year’s market theme song. (2) Margin debt is like rocket fuel. (3) Why hasn’t the Fed changed the margin requirement since 1974? (4) Margin debt soaring with stock prices. (5) Pandemic relief checks add up to $800 billion, with 25% spent and 75% saved. (6) FRB-NY is monitoring what consumers are doing with their relief checks. (7) Soaring personal saving over the past year reflected in record increase in M2. (8) “Mind boggling” comes to mind. (9) Lofty valuations, with Buffett Ratio voting for Major Tom. (10) Rapidly rising PPI inflation belies Fed’s “base effect” cover story. (11) Steel and lumber prices in outer space. (12) Movie review: “Hemingway” (+ + +).

MAMU, JOLTS, and Wuhan
(1) Jamie Dimon ready for the Roaring 2020s. (2) Goldilocks’ moment. (3) Adding MAMU to Dimon’s short worry list. (4) JOLTS report shows February’s job openings as high as a year ago. (5) S&P 500/400/600 forward earnings all at record highs. (6) Double-digit earnings growth ahead for four quarters in a row. (7) That devilish 1.666% bond yield. (8) Valuation multiples for the Goldilocks moment. (9) How is China beating the virus?

No Sign of Wage-Price Spiral
(1) T-Fed’s flood of liquidity fueling broad-based inflation in asset prices. (2) A fiscal relief plan for MAMU. (3) While cost-push and demand-pull inflation heat up, consumer price inflation remains subdued. (4) Even Professor Gordon is less pessimistic on productivity. (5) Pandemic was a booster shot for capital spending on IT. (6) Wage inflation remains subdued despite signs of labor shortages. (7) An analysis of higher vs lower wages. (8) Progressives’ real-pay-stagnation claim is a statistical myth. (9) Real hourly wages up 1.2% per year since 1995.

Floating on a Sea of Liquidity
(1) The M-PMI is highly correlated with the y/y changes in the S&P 500 and in the Treasury bond yield. (2) M-PMI currently bullish for stocks and bearish for bonds. (3) M2 up $4.2 trillion y/y. (4) More helicopter money on the way. (5) M-PMI orders and production boom, and so does prices-paid index. (6) NM-PMI at record high. (7) Employment, usually a coincident indicator, has been a lagging one so far. (8) Our Earned Income Proxy jumped to a record high last month. (9) Fed will wait until economy reaches broad-based and inclusive maximum employment before tightening. (10) Plenty of signs of labor shortages despite high joblessness. (11) Wage inflation remains relatively subdued. (12) Movie review: “My Octopus Teacher” (+ + +).

Old Economy Rocking & Rolling
(1) Materials and Industrials rock on. (2) Biden’s infrastructure bill and economic recovery keep the party going. (3) Steel and copper prices near highs. (4) Analysts scramble to raise steel industry earnings for this year, but aren’t planning on high prices sticking around into 2022. (5) European surge in Covid cases may taper enthusiasm for the metals. (6) Behind bitcoin and CryptoKitties, there’s a blockchain doing the work. (7) Large companies and upstarts help enterprises deploy blockchain technology.

Impending Doom or Impending Boom?
(1) Who is that masked man? (2) Lady in distress. (3) Will March madness bring April’s fourth wave? (4) Will vaccines protect us from UK’s B.1.1.7 variant? (5) No doom, only boom in consensus earnings forecasts. (6) More boom than gloom in bond yields too. (7) Valuation multiples floating on a sea of liquidity. (8) Archegos is playing out like a Greek play. (9) S&P 500 forward earnings has fully recovered and points to profits boom this year. (10) How much will the taxman slice off of corporate profits in 2021? (11) That sinking feeling about fiscal excess.

Alfred Hitchcock & The Dot Plot
(1) The dot plot could be the next horror show for the financial markets. (2) Powell says to pay no attention to the forecasts of his colleagues. (3) Monetary policy is backwards looking on purpose. (4) Falling behind the yield curve. (5) Fed’s forward guidance pushes tightening into 2023 or later. So it is likely to come much sooner. (6) The regional surveys of business activity and pricing are hot. (7) Delivery times getting longer as unfilled orders pile up. (8) The government is on a spending spree. (9) Taxes are coming.

From the 4Ds to the 5Ds!
(1) Nostalgia time. (2) The bull’s long charge. (3) Da Vinci Code again. (4) Fed resists pegging bond yield, and outsources inflation fighting to Bond Vigilantes. (5) Powell’s happy spin. (6) The Fifth Dimension: Adding Desperadoes to the 4Ds. (7) The yield-curve spread is signaling economic expansion with rising bond yields. (8) The first future-shock business cycle on a fiscal and monetary cocktail of steroids and speed. (9) The bull market has been broadening since early September 2020. (10) Financials boosted by ascending yield curve and prospect of higher earnings, dividends, and buybacks. (11) Net charge-offs were remarkably moderate last year. (12) Rally in Emerging Markets MSCI could stall on rising US bond yields. (13) Movie review: “The Father” (+ +).

Transports on a Roll
(1) Traffic jam builds in the Suez Canal. (2) Global trade is tangling up supply chains. (3) Dow Transports shakes off Covid and hits new highs. (4) Airlines flying before broad recovery in traffic. (5) Recovery in trade volumes and M&A help railroad stocks. (6) Internet purchases boost the shippers. (7) A look at the industries with record-high forward earnings per share. (8) Facebook working on brain/computer interfaces. (9) Smart glasses take on a whole new meaning. (10) Make things happen with a twitch of a finger.

Talking Fed Head
(1) Will the base effect on inflation be basically transitory? (2) What about the M2 effect? (3) The base effect has started in the Richmond Fed’s district, and then some. (4) Delivery times on the rise. (5) Home price inflation not reflected in CPI, but could soon indirectly boost rent inflation. (6) Powell admits sun is coming out, but only seeing clouds. (7) Ignore the dot plot. (8) An odd op-ed. (9) Fed’s top priority: broad based and inclusive employment. (10) Powell declares Phillips curve is dead. (11) Any bad consequences of Fed policies will be temporary, or else you’ll get another relief check.

Free Money Boosting Earnings
(1) Strength in average of NY and Philly business indexes augurs well for March M-PMI. (2) Also predicts strong growth in S&P 500 revenues. (3) Raising 2021 and 2022 earnings-per-share projections to $180 and $200. (4) Economic Impact Payments boosting economic and earnings growth. (5) Rebounding profit margin. (6) Analysts predicting double-digit earnings growth during Q1-Q4 and 25% increase for the year. (7) Forward earnings and revenues have fully recovered. (8) Still targeting S&P 500 at 4300 this year and 4800 next year. (9) The valuation question: Will all the free money offset rising bond yields? (10) How much of pandemic fiscal and monetary stimulus has leaked abroad?

No Relief for Bond Vigilantes
(1) Dr. Ed’s latest podcast. (2) New book about the Fed and the GVC. (3) Do over 250 million Americans need “relief” checks? (4) Thousands adding up to billions. (5) Big boost for housing-related retail sales including TVs and microwave ovens. (6) M2 up $4 trillion y/y. (7) March is on fire, according to Philly Fed survey. (8) Prices-paid indexes soaring in Philly and NY districts. (9) Copper/gold ratio and Philly prices-paid correlations with bond yield remain bearish. (10) The pre-pandemic old normal for bond yields was 2.00%-3.00%. (11) Movie review: “Land” (+).

Dividends & Hydrogen
(1) Rising confidence reflected in rising dividends. (2) Many companies reversing 2020 dividend suspensions. (3) Some retailers and REITs reinstate dividends, but travel-related companies not there yet. (4) Will banks boost dividends too? (5) S&P 500 dividend yield and 10-year Treasury yield coming into balance. (6) Large truck manufacturers and upstarts alike exploring hydrogen fuel. (7) Hyundai leads with a hydrogen-fueled truck being tested on the road today.

What’s in this Sausage?
(1) “V” is for “V-covery.” (2) $1,400 checks times 287 million Americans is serious money. (3) Business sales of goods at record high during January. (4) S&P 500 revenues outlook is bright. (5) Forward earnings of S&P 500/400/600 all at record highs. (6) Plenty of beef and pork in American Rescue Plan Act. (7) Lots of shots and checks. (8) Free money: $402 billion in checks, $362 billion for state and local governments, $206 billion for unemployed, $196 billion for schools. (9) Setting the stage for UBI? (10) Uncle Joe has lots of presents for the kids.

Inflation: Asking for Trouble?
(1) In 2016, Yellen wondered what determines inflation. (2) Now Yellen says any inflation pickup will be fleeting. (3) The Phillips curve: Fuhgettaboutit! (4) The 1970s were so yesterday. (5) Lots of job openings. (6) Skills mismatch or generous unemployment benefits, or both? (7) Small business owners need help but can’t find workers. (8) Mixed readings on wage inflation. (9) Commodity and PPI costs soaring. (10) The base effect. (11) A sign of trouble for consumer price inflation. (12) SEC issues warnings about SPACs.

Clash of the Titans
(1) Zeus vs Thetis. (2) T-Fed vs Bond Vigilantes. (3) Pushing back by pushing up bond yields. (4) What will beneficiaries of $1,400 checks do with the money? (5) Fed and commercial banks still loading up on Treasuries and MBS. (6) Still plenty of fiscal and monetary stimulus piled up as stash of M2 cash. (7) More stimulus coming soon. (8) No Operation Twist or yield-curve target? (9) ECB is stepping up bond purchases. (10) Is there any evidence showing Treasury relief checks have been used to buy stocks? (11) Foreign investors have been big buyers of US stocks. (12) Movie review: “Minari” (+).

Tech World
(1) Tech sector enjoyed eye-popping two-year outperformance. (2) Tech earnings rose, and P/Es rose faster. (3) Recent tech selloff barely moved the needle. (4) China aims for moderate economic growth and world domination of advanced technologies. (5) As Beijing tightens its control over Hong Kong, residents and businesses pack their bags. (6) Fintech players growing up. (7) Walmart jumps into fintech, while Square and SoFi enter traditional banking.

A Most Remarkable Recovery
(1) A spring shower of cash could fuel stock market meltup. (2) Is Panic Attack #69 over already? (3) More helicopter money on the way. (4) Personal savings bloated by government checks, boosting M2 and stock prices. (5) Go away in May if stocks melt up in April? (6) What might cause Panic Attack #70? (7) Q4-2020 data show complete V-shaped recoveries in S&P 500 revenues, earnings, and profit margin. (8) S&P 500 forward earnings back in record-high territory. (9) Huge write-offs last year.

In Praise of Monetary & Fiscal Folly
(1) Rent inflation is currently a headwind for overall inflation. (2) Here is how it could turn into a tailwind for inflation. (3) Demand for houses outpacing supply. (4) Shortage of homes for sale and declining affordability are depressing would-be homebuyers. (5) Rent has a big weight in consumer price measures. (6) The Phillips curve could rise from the dead. (7) Rent inflation correlated with wage inflation, which remains high. (8) Watching them make sausage in Washington. (9) Counting blue and red heads in the Senate. (10) Reconciliation Part II: Build Back Better. (11) Compromising with Manchin.

Powell Deputizes Bond Vigilantes
(1) T-Fed outsources maintaining law and order to Bond Vigilantes. (2) Powell not worrying about disorderly markets or inflation. (3) The Fed is patient and dovish. The Vigilantes are not. (4) No twisting at the Fed’s party for now. (5) T-Fed’s party line: Rising yields reflecting strong recovery, not inflation. (6) Rallying commodity prices bearish for bonds. (7) Wage inflation is high. Aberration or a problem for consumer prices? (8) Is Panic Attack #69 over yet? (9) Bull market continues to broaden and rotate from Growth to Value. (10) Movie review: “The Mauritanian” (+ +).

Spring Is Coming
(1) Improving Covid-19 stats seed economic optimism. (2) “Uplyfting” data on ridesharing volumes. (3) Easy comparisons are around the corner. (4) More doors opening for business, and a few states lifting capacity restrictions. (5) Rallying stock and commodity markets telling us to fear not? (6) Most S&P 500 Industrials industry indexes have had a far better year than sector’s performance suggests. (7) Farmers and Deere reaping profits. (8) Airlines’ and Boeing’s woes weighing on business for many an industrial conglomerate. (9) Hoping Biden will keep defense spending steady. (10) Deere explains how high-tech machines benefit farmers’ bottom lines. (11) Eco-friendly street pavers.

The Starship Enterprise
(1) Helicopter Ben’s solution has been implemented. (2) Yield-curve targeting or Operation Twist? (3) Four Fed presidents’ happy spin on the backup in bond yields. (4) Lots of fiscal spending in the pipeline. (5) Einstein’s theory of relativity and the speed of light. (6) Going boldly where no man or woman has gone before. (7) M-PMI is bullish for S&P 500 revenues. (8) New orders at record high. (9) Construction spending at a record high. (10) Inflationary cost pressures heating up. (11) ESG disclosure could soon be mandatory.

Operation Warp Speed II
(1) From OSW-I to OSW-II. (2) Overheating a hot post-pandemic economy. (3) Checks without balances. (4) From plague to pest. (5) J&J has a shot for that too. (6) Real GDP is on monetary and fiscal performance-enhancing drugs. (7) Two record increases in personal income since April; another this spring. (8) T-Fed sending helicopter money by check. (9) Bonfire of the insanities. (10) Great for profits. (11) Bad for bonds.

Bond Vigilantes: They’re Back!
(1) Inflation tantrum in bond market. (2) Protesting fiscal and monetary excesses. (3) Five recent taper tantrums in the stock market. The latest one is Panic Attack #69. (4) The Carville memo. (5) Powell’s conundrum. (6) What to do about rising bond yields? Fed has three choices. (7) Is Powell cooling off to more fiscal stimulus? (8) The case for a transient pickup in inflation. (9) The Age Wave is still disinflationary. (10) Prices-paid indexes are soaring. (11) Hard to see the whites of inflation’s eyes in consumer prices, so far. (12) Movie review: “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” (+ + +).

Consumers, Earnings, And Proteins
(1) Falling Covid-19 cases inspire dreams of hitting the mall. (2) Uncle Sam boosts personal income. (3) Consumers deleveraged a little, saved a little, and spent a lot. (4) Deferred rent, mortgage, and student loan payments help too. (5) Home retailers face tough comps this year. (6) Clothing retailers will have easier comparisons if we have occasions to dress up in 2021. (7) Burning our sweatpants. (8) Are positive forward earnings revisions slowing? (9) Scientists hoping proteins are the key to curing cancer, Parkinson’s, and Alzheimer’s.

Green New Capitalism
(1) Fink’s “Dear CEO” letter. (2) Building a Green New Capitalism (GNC). (3) An existential crisis. (4) FOE’s and WEF’s agendas are on the same page. (5) Stakeholders matter more than shareholders. (6) Davos men and women working together for the common good. (7) The goal of the Great Reset is carbon-free and inclusive capitalism. (8) Lots of global movers and shakers are on board. (9) Fink’s warning: “Companies, ignore stakeholders at their peril.” (10) What’s your ESG score? (11) From FASB to SASB. (12) Bloomberg is on the case. (13) Central banks going green.

On the Road to Reflation
(1) Unprecedented policy stimulus boosting cost pressures. (2) Bond Vigilantes getting set to ambush policymakers on the road to inflation. (3) Yellen and Powell say they have “tools” to fight inflation. (4) Powell sees “transient” inflation coming this spring. (5) Williams say stock market valuations are fine and dandy. (6) Three regional price surveys showing more inflation in the pipeline. (7) Copper leading commodity price rally. (8) Copper tracks inflationary expectations proxy. (9) Extraordinary growth in monetary aggregates. (10) S&P 500 winners and losers if inflation makes a comeback.

Getting Hotter
(1) Some like it hot. (2) The risk is overheating a hot economy. (3) Acting big means bigger deficits and lots more debt. (4) Yellen once worried about deficits. (5) Yellen aims to get back to full employment by next year. (6) Powell and Yellen say jobless rate is more like 10% now. (7) FOMC would welcome an inflation warm-up. (8) January’s latest economic indicators are hot. (9) Housing-related industries are booming. (10) Running out of housing inventory. (11) Are Bond Vigilantes getting set to ambush policymakers on the road to inflation? (12) Movie review: “Judas and the Black Messiah” (+ + +).

Have Shot, Will Travel
(1) Disney wishes on a star, vaccines for all by April. (2) Carnival’s customers booking for 2H-2021. (3) S&P 500 Biotech underperforms, but smaller biotech names are on fire. (4) All biotech ETFs are not alike. (5) Outperformers boosted by acquisitions and hot IPO market. (6) Nuclear energy reimagined: smaller, cheaper, safer. (7) Bill Gates-backed TerraPower and X-energy win DOE contest to build SMRs (small modular reactors).

‘V’ for Victory?
(1) The third wave of the pandemic has crested. (2) From a plague to a pest. (3) Stock market isn’t disconnected from economy and earnings. (4) Earnings likely to be flat y/y during Q4. (5) Expecting a 25% increase in 2021 earnings over 2020. (6) Forward revenues and earnings almost back to pre-pandemic levels. (7) Impressive rebound in profit margin. (8) Hot commodity prices confirming V-shaped global recovery. (9) Solid recoveries in global PMIs and leading indicators. (10) Global bull market in stocks driven by upbeat fundamentals. (11) US Growth stocks are highly valued. (12) US Value stocks have about the same forward P/E as overseas stocks.

Good vs Bad Endings
(1) Zooming worries. (2) A trillion dollars here, a trillion there. (3) Mission accomplished, so far. (4) Nasdaq partying like it’s 1999 once again? (5) Home prices are also having a party. (6) Cost pressures mounting but not showing up in CPI, yet. (7) Pandemic has boosted some prices and depressed other prices. (8) Expect a post-pandemic reversal of pricing power. (9) Rent inflation continues to fall, and has lower to go. (10) The Fed keeps resuscitating Zombies, while trying to bury the Vigilantes. (11) Blue Angels for the government’s net interest. (12) Movie review: “Promising Young Woman” (+ + +).

Onshoring & Charging
(1) Optimism about S&P 500 Q1 earnings growth on the rise. (2) S&P 500 Energy & Real Estate sectors enjoy the biggest Q1 upward earnings estimate revisions. (3) Only Utilities’ and Industrials’ estimates get cut. (4) Shortages of masks and semis highlight importance of domestic supply chains. (5) Taiwan Semi building in Arizona, while Samsung scouts for a location. (6) “Green” technology companies building new manufacturing capacity too. (7) Many capital goods orders on the rise. (8) Norway, world’s EV leader, tries wirelessly charging taxi batteries. (9) Nio swapping batteries in China. (10) UK ponders how to charge cars parked on the street.

Help Wanted
(1) Summers trashes Biden’s winter plan. (2) Providing disincentive to work. (3) Not enough workers with the right skills? (4) Private-sector wages and salaries at record high. (5) Our Earned Income Proxy was strong in January. (6) Wages rising at faster pace. (7) Payroll tax receipts at record high. (8) Small businesses are hiring, but can’t find qualified workers. (9) Job postings back to pre-pandemic level. (10) Ratio of unemployment to job openings drops. (11) Quits jump reflecting labor force dropouts rather than job switchers. (12) Biden’s plan is too stimulating. (13) An update on the major central bankers.

The Government Is Here To Help
(1) Yellen is more powerful than ever. (2) Can Yellen fend off the Bond Vigilantes? (3) A wildly ambitious agenda to solve four crises. (4) A meeting of regulators to discuss stock market volatility. (5) Yellen predicts full employment next year if Biden plan is passed. (6) A student of inflation and how to squelch it. (7) Professor Summers says it’s too much, and could bring back inflation. (8) Why work? (9) Expected inflation rising along with commodity prices. (10) Fed buying lots of notes and bonds.

Earnings Season’s Greetings
(1) Positive revenues and earnings surprises. (2) Tweaking our earnings forecasts. (3) Still targeting 4800 for S&P 500 by year-end 2022. (4) More fiscal stimulus will boost earnings this year. (5) Corporate tax hike likely to pare earnings next year. (6) Profit margins have been remarkably resilient. (7) Another quarterly earnings hook. (8) The meltup risk again. (9) Bullish PMIs. (10) Personal income gets a boost despite weak employment. (11) T-Fed’s digital printing presses are on overdrive. (12) Inflationary pressures building below the calm surface of consumer prices. (13) Bond Vigilantes may be coming back from the dead. (14) Movie review: “The Little Things” (+ +).

Chips Shortage
(1) Semiconductor sales and stocks booming. (2) Auto manufacturers searching for chips. (3) Introducing gallium nitride. (4) NXP forecasts strong Q1. (5) Cloud computing driving chip demand too. (6) Chinese focused on developing home-grown chips. (7) US tech giants want to develop semis in house too. (8) Watching the US and Chinese 5G rollout race. (9) Abu Dhabi can claim best 5G download speeds in the world. (10) China’s in the lead, but it’s still early days.

Watching Inflation: More Signs of Trouble?
(1) Inflation is up for discussion. (2) Inflation’s eeny, meeny, miny, moe. (3) The tug of war between the 4Ds and MMT. (4) Regional prices-paid and prices-received indexes are hot. (5) M-PMI prices-paid index also heating up. (6) In recent years, not much correlation between the CPI and the dollar, commodity prices, import prices, intermediate PPI, or survey measures of prices paid and received. (7) Barely any inflation in the Eurozone, Japan, and China. (8) IMF advises policymakers to err on easing side. (9) Earnings seasons now and then.

Funny Money
(1) Something is off. (2) Yellen and Lagarde warn about dark side of cryptocurrencies and favor regulation. (3) Is a stablecoin driving the volatility in bitcoin? (4) Waiting for the AG’s report. (5) Citadel is playing both sides of the Street. (6) The third wave of the pandemic is cresting. (7) A third wave of checks is coming. (8) High-frequency economic indicators remain high. (9) Consumers are sitting on a pile of liquid assets, as reflected in MZM and M2. (10) Business spending booming. (11) Construction booming.

Gamesters vs the Dynamic Duo
(1) Gamesters: The new kids on the Street. (2) Shorts get roasted in game of chicken. (3) Robin Hood vs the sheriff of Nottingham. (4) Don’t fight the T-Fed duo in the Game of Thrones. (5) Powell prioritizes “broad-based and inclusive” maximum employment over both inflation and financial stability mandates. (6) A narrow definition of macroprudential policy jurisdiction. (7) Powell claims recent valuation-multiple spikes weren’t caused by Fed. (8) Much too soon to think about thinking about tapering. (9) The income-equality mandate: Minding the gaps. (10) T-Fed’s BFFs. (11) Unasked question. (12) Yellen wants to rebuild the economy. (13) Four crises and Rahm’s Rule. (14) Movie review: “The White Tiger” (+ +).

Faster 5G Rollout & Faster-Charging Batteries
(1) 5G and EV: two races to watch. (2) T-Mobile leads the 5G rollout, leaving Verizon and AT&T playing catch-up. (3) T-Mobile has the broadest nationwide coverage, the best 4Q subscriber growth, and much better share price performance over the past year than its two rivals. (4) 5G opens the door to technological marvels galore. (5) A look at S&P 500 P/E inflation over the past year. (6) Foreign EV automakers may see greener pastures in the US after Biden’s initiatives. (7) The winner of the EV race may be the manufacturer with the longest-running, fastest-charging battery. (8) Innovation is super-charging EV battery evolution.

The Road to Victory
(1) Victory over the virus may not require full herd immunity. (2) Widespread immunity of just the herd’s most essential and vulnerable equates to 230 million doses of vaccine, half as much as required for full herd immunity. (3) Looking at vaccine supply/distribution/administration logistics, we estimate the virus could go from plague to pest by summer 2021. (4) We think investors are right to assume that Biden’s strategic goals to fight the virus can be met. (5) But much still could go wrong to derail the optimism. (6) Virus mutations might represent the biggest threat.

Act Big
(1) Yellen talks softly and carries a big act. (2) Government continues to spew out checks. (3) American Rescue Plan is fourth congressional pandemic response. (4) Bernie Sanders is all for reconciliation if Republicans won’t reconcile. (5) Rahm’s Rule again. (6) The Mag-5 underperforming despite their new record-high market cap. (7) Market breadth has improved thanks to vaccines. (8) V-shaped recovery in forward revenues, earnings, and margins. (9) In January, US PMIs remained remarkably robust. (10) Pandemic is mutating. (11) Stock market valuation multiples in outer space.

The Checks Are in the Mail
(1) The Economist’s rocketship dodges the front-cover curse. (2) Samuelson’s mistake. (3) From lots of liquidity to tons of it. (4) The Fed is pumping away. (5) CARES Acts I-III add up to $3.6 trillion in rocket fuel. (6) Biden’s Acts IV and V would add another $4 trillion, give or take. (7) First round of rescue checks fueled rocketship recovery from lockdown recession last year. (8) Latest round of checks is half as much, but GDP is almost back to pre-pandemic level. (9) It may be time to start worrying about inflation, or at least monitoring it more closely. (10) Movie review: “News of the World” (+).

Covid’s First & Last Anniversary
(1) Approaching Covid-19 anniversary. (2) Can businesses that grew because of Covid-19 maintain the momentum? (3) A look at Logitech, Peloton, and Netflix earnings and conference calls. (4) BofA works to keep the fintechs at bay. (5) Liquidity piling up at commercial banks, with deposits up 21.6% y/y. (6) Banks stashing cash in Treasuries. (7) Electricity generation getting a little bit greener every year. (8) Natural gas consumption expected to fall. (9) Welcome Tesla to the Magnificent Five.

Substantial Further Progress Ahead?
(1) Yellen wants US government to “act big.” Seriously. (2) Act II of CARES Act could be as stimulative as Act I. (3) Full economic recovery from pandemic recession one year later. (4) Another (bigger) round of government checks with fewer social-distancing restrictions. (5) No double dip so far in credit and debit card shopping or in gasoline usage. (6) Higher inflation and bond yields as the year progresses. (7) Five new voters on FOMC with consensus views. (8) The Fed’s new mantra: “substantial further progress.” (9) The Fed’s new FAITH. (10) Free advice to Powell & Co.: Beware of what you wish for.

MMT on Steroids & Speed
(1) Powell says it again: Not thinking about raising rates. (2) Powell impressed by recovery. (3) Rosengren endorses Biden plan. (4) Fed and banks financed most of 2020 federal budget deficit. (5) Yields stay low despite soaring commodity prices. (6) New record high in real GDP coming this year. (7) Economy getting Blue Wave booster shot. (8) Upward revision in December retail sales likely. (9) Yellen & Powell: MMT-BFFs. (10) Tech boosts capital spending. (11) The Blue Wave and the budget reconciliation process. (12) Movie review: “The Flight Attendant” (+ +).

Financials on the Move
(1) Optimism rising about Financials earnings. (2) Steeper yield curve and booming markets kick 2021 off right. (3) Bank buybacks look ready to resume. (4) Loan loss reserves low with government help. (5) Beware fintech competition and higher taxes and regulations from Democrats. (6) Technology lets us do just about everything from the couch. (7) Keeping an eye on software as a service, artificial intelligence, and quantum computers. (8) Elon is our hero. (9) Robots on the rise and medical miracles.

Not in Kansas Anymore
(1) Dorothy and Stephanie. (2) The power of myths. (3) Surreality. (4) The sky is the limit for T-Fed in MMT world. (5) Ease on down the yellow brick road to socialism. (6) The central bank wizards. (7) Free money for all. (8) Are the Bond Vigilantes making a comeback? (9) Yield-curve targeting coming? (10) Bitcoin: the official currency of Oz. (11) Managing money in Oz. (12) More style rotation in 2021. (13) Tesla is in outer space.

Will Blue Wave Increase Or Decrease Earnings?
(1) Valuations vs mutating virus. (2) Retail sales stalled late last year. (3) Our proxy for wages and salaries continued to recover in December as government benefits declined. (4) Here comes another round of pandemic support checks to lift consumer spending. (5) Unbelievable: Real GDP has almost fully recovered. (6) Santa delivered bullish PMIs. (7) Signaling solid revenues recovery this year. (8) We are more positive on revenues than the analysts. They are more positive on profit margins than we are. (9) Buybacks should make a comeback this year unless they are drowned by the Blue Wave tsunami.

Party Like There’s No Tomorrow
(1) A new theme song for the meltup party. (2) The sun will come out tomorrow, and so will the hangover. (3) Bull market stampede trampling the bulls. (4) Valuation meltup harder to justify if yields continue to rise. (5) Irrational exuberance + ultra-stimulative fiscal and monetary policies = MAMU. (6) Fiscal follies. (7) Yield-targeting and monetary madness. (8) The Bond Vigilantes are stirring. (9) What could possibly go wrong? (10) Don’t fight the Fed when it is fighting a pandemic? (11) The race against the fast-spreading mutants. (12) Movie review: “The King” (+ +).

Socialism, Materials, and Drones
(1) The Blue Wave makes a splash. (2) Without gridlock, expect even more federal spending and mounting deficits. (3) The market has rallied almost as much during Blue Waves as it has during gridlock. (4) Hoping centrist Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) will stymie the Socialists. (5) Mutant variants of Covid-19 may be troublesome. (6) Materials’ broad-based rally continues into 2021. (7) Weak dollar and strong industrial production in China and the US send commodity prices higher. (8) Last year’s corporate cost cutting should boost this year’s earnings growth. (9) Drones making deliveries, fighting crime, and playing lifeguard.

What in the World Is Going On?
(1) A new strain. (2) Waiting for the latest viral wave to crest. (3) The UK has a contagious problem. (4) Strong M-PMIs. (5) Resilient NM-PMIs. (6) Purchasing managers say that commodity prices are all on the rise. None are down. (7) Forward revenues and earnings mostly in recovery mode around the world. (8) Commodity prices pointing the way forward. (9) Expected inflation rising along with commodity prices as the dollar weakens. (10) Emerging Markets MSCI tends to rebound when the dollar is weak.

The Punch Bowl
(1) New Year’s resolution. (2) What’s ahead: Sobering correction or intoxicated meltup? (3) Fed chairs no longer party poopers. Now they refill punch bowls at wild parties. (4) Powell, like Greenspan before him, doesn’t see irrational exuberance. (5) Georgia’s election will be either sobering or intoxicating for stock investors. (6) From dual to sole mandate. (7) The three central banks are the life of the party. (8) No shortage of liquidity at Club Fed. (9) Margin debt amplifies bull and bear markets. (10) Monetary aggregates are dancing up a storm.

Three-Front War
(1) The long staycation. (2) Me and Forrest. (3) Three-front war against the virus. (4) WMDs should annihilate virus. (5) But beware of Mutant Ninja viruses. (6) No double-dip in our forecast. (7) Upbeat leading indicators. (8) Remarkable rebound in wages and salaries to pre-pandemic record high. (9) Booming demand for homes runs into record shortage of housing inventory. (10) Capital spending remarkably strong too. (11) Stocks on 1999 meltup track. (12) Powell’s open bar. Punch bowl will remain full and spiked. (13) Fed keeping a lid on bond yield. (14) V-shaped recoveries for S&P 500 forward revenues and earnings. (15) Movie review: “Gangs of London” (+).