Chips for the Holidays
(1) FedEx and Boeing are downers in an otherwise up year. (2) Tech and Nasdaq come out ahead. (3) Semi Equipment is the best-performing S&P 500 industry in 2019. (4) Semi stocks are saying the cycle’s bottom is in, and good times are ahead. (5) 5G’s rollout means more equipment, more devices, and more chips. (6) Analysts upgrading semis. (7) Offering AI services makes you cool.

2020 Vision
(1) DaVinci Code 2020. (2) Hard to see a credit crunch next year with central banks still easing. (3) Less geopolitical tumult in 2020? (4) No regime change in 2021 White House. (5) 2020 vs 2019: Tighter labor market, less trade tension. (6) Another good year for consumers, and a better one for housing industry. (7) Productivity growth likely to surprise to the upside. (8) The Fed is done for a while. (9) Risks: Round up the usual suspects and the zombies too. (10) Stock market meltup? (11) Earning the coupon on bonds. (12) Neutral on the dollar at this level.

Slicing & Dicing Pork & Profits
(1) Peace dividend likely for global economy. (2) A serious shortage of pigs in China. (3) Soaring meat prices inflating Chinese retail sales. (4) Chinese forward revenues and earnings remain subdued. (5) China MSCI is cheap and likely going higher. (6) What’s weighing on NIPA profits? (7) S corporations muddying the waters. (8) Dividend data suggest that underlying trend of profits is upward. (9) National Income shares can be misleading.

Peace in Our Time
(1) Anti-war slogan. (2) Phasing in a trade deal with China. (3) Manufacturing may be weighed down by too much capacity and aging consumers. (4) No global boom in 2020. (5) The zombie story again. (6) Commodity prices may be signaling better growth ahead. (7) Mixed bag of US economic indicators still adding up to 2% growth. (8) Germany’s auto industry dragging down European manufacturing. (9) The Year of the Pig has been bad for pigs, and Chinese consumers. (10) Real retail sales growth in China remains on downtrend. (11) Children of one-child nation facing big burden as young adults tending to their aging parents’ needs.

Pedal to the Light-Truck Metal
(1) Auto manufacturers in the slow lane, hurt by international sales and EV investments. (2) Auto retailers in the fast lane, thanks to used light-truck sales. (3) Zero trade fees help brokers battle Fin Tech upstarts. (4) Shareholders like Schwab’s recent moves. (5) Fin Tech companies pressuring asset management fees too. (6) Tesla’s solar roofs may have their day in the sun.

More Easy Money in 2020
(1) The Fed Grinch who turned the past four Fed chairs into Santas. (2) Powell pivoted from Grinch to Santa last Christmas. (3) It’s been a very long Santa Claus rally since last Christmas. (4) Is it RM or QE? Who cares? The Fed’s balance sheet is expanding again. (5) Draghi’s swan song: Another open-ended QE aimed at stimulating MMT. (6) Kuroda says lots of bonds left for the BOJ to buy. (7) Don’t fight the three major central banks. (8) Thank you, Paul Volcker!

What’s in Style?
(1) Is it SMidCap’s turn to outperform? (2) Fed’s third rate cut this year along with yield curve reversal have consequences. (3) Smaller firms’ profit margins may be getting squeezed more than larger ones by tight labor market. (4) Margins higher for large companies than small ones. (5) Growth vs Value: Another perspective. (6) Go Global isn’t rising to the occasion so far. (7) Germany hasn’t bottomed yet. (8) OECD leading indicators bottoming, but not recovering. (9) China’s exports and imports stalled at record highs. (10) Forward revenues still moving forward in many places.

Purchasing Power
(1) The Fed is hearing that the local folks are benefiting from the long expansion. (2) Jobless rate down sharply for most Americans by race, ethnicity, and education. (3) Consumers’ purchasing power continues to power ahead. (4) There’s no stagnation in real wages, which are powering ahead to record highs. (5) Trend in employment growth remains solid. (6) Record number of full-time jobs. (7) Consumers are saving a lot, especially in liquid assets rather than in stocks. (8) Low rates forcing savers to save more. (9) Households’ debt-servicing burden is at record low. (10) The income inequality naysayers are getting some pushback finally. (11) Movie review: “The Irishman” (+).

’Tis the Season for Shopping
(1) This year’s holiday season has fewer shopping days. (2) Cyber Monday saw record spending. (3) Ritholtz warns investors to beware of seasonal hype. (4) While some retailers are raking it in, shifts in shopping patterns have stranded others in the cold. (5) Two S&P 500 retail industries with fraying earnings cloaks: Department Stores and Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods. (6) Likewise, there are haves and have-nots in the S&P 500 Technology sector. (7) High P/Es in S&P 500 Application Software industry mean there’s little room to err.

What’s New? Not Much!
(1) Global M-PMIs: some, but not much, improvement. (2) Trump making sausage out of trade talks? (3) Emerging economies showing better M-PMIs than developed ones. (4) Latest US M-PMI a downer for S&P 500 revenues growth. (5) Is trade-related uncertainty certainly bearish for stocks? (6) The Fed is probably done for now, but a one-and-done rate cut is possible early next year. (7) Looking forward to better earnings. (8) A few bond-friendly developments.

Signs of Life & Death
(1) The Great Inflation of the 1970s is long behind us. (2) Is inflation dead or just in a coma and on life support provided by the central banks? (3) The Fed’s delusional “make-up” strategy for inflation. (4) ECB ready to fine-tune inflation target. (5) BOJ out of ammo. (6) Central bankers want fiscal policy to take over. (7) China catches the swine flu. (8) Looking for a pulse in the global economy. (9) China’s lukewarm stir-fry. (10) German auto industry reducing payrolls. (11) US consumers on spending spree that has yet to trickle down to manufacturing.

What’s the Matter with Profits, Again?
(1) Oddities in profits data. (2) The bears love NIPA profits because they are in a coma (ambiguity intended: Read either way). (3) Stock prices diverging from NIPA profits. (4) S&P 500 earnings diverging from NIPA profits. (5) Tale of two profit margins: S&P 500 at record high, while NIPA on downward trend. (6) Market discounting that earnings growth will rebound next year from this year’s growth recession. (7) Another earnings season, another earnings hook. (8) NIPA profits measure is a fruit cocktail. (9) S corporations distorting NIPA profits and National Income shares.

Some More Thanks Giving
(1) Wearing a cardigan sweater at TD dinner. (2) Raining on the parade. (3) Ready for Santa. (4) Wild ride for S&P 500 P/E since early 2018. (5) The case for a meltup. (6) More panic attacks or the big bear? (7) Trump and Xi need a face-saving phase-one deal. (8) Does Pelosi really want to impeach Trump, or just embarrass him? (9) Another government shutdown? Probably not. (10) Scientists making progress on CO2 scrubbers.

Thanksgiving
(1) Thanksgiving and Mr. Rogers. (2) Counting blessings. (3) A great year for stocks and bonds. (4) Lots of full-time jobs. (5) Real wages at record high. (6) Mixed capital spending. (7) No boom, no bust. (8) Clunkers: Exports, imports, railcar loadings, and leading indicators. (9) The Fed’s latest financial stability report. (10) Nothing to fear but lots of corporate debt. (11) Movie review: “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” (+ +).

Consumers Are Consuming
(1) Europe finding a bottom? (2) European car registrations pop, and non-auto retail sales head to new highs. (3) Chinese debt hitting higher highs. (4) Chinese bond defaults strike companies, banks, and municipal entities. (5) In US, all retailers are not having the same year. (6) Target hits multiple bullseyes; Kohl’s strikes out.

Global Capital Flows & the Dollar
(1) The jury is out on Go Global vs Stay Home. (2) US came out of Great Financial Crisis better than most. (3) US financial system is strong. (4) US consumers are in very good shape. (5) High-tech capital spending booming. (6) Inverse correlation between the trade-weighted dollar (TWD) and commodity prices, which remain weak. (7) Our capital flows proxy is also inversely correlated with TWD. (8) Emerging markets tend to do best when Fed is easing. (9) Dollar remains key reserve currency. (10) Deflating Asian PPIs.

P/E Primer
(1) Question of our times: Is the market overvalued? (2) Inflation-adjusted valuation models aren’t alarming. (3) Meet MAPE: Misery-Adjusted P/E. (4) Les Misérables are much less miserable. (5) Inverse relationship between P/E and misery. (6) A primer on forward P/Es. (7) 505 P/Es. (8) S&P 500 Energy, Financials, Health Care, and Industrials are the fairest of them all. (9) Market-cap shares vs earnings shares for the sectors. (10) Global sectors: valuation vs market-cap shares.

Revisiting Earnings & Valuation
(1) The life of Brian. (2) Despite Brexit, London is booming. (3) Hillary and me. (4) No trade deal yet with China. (5) What if Chinese troops repress Hong Kong? (6) Mixed signals from stock market indicators. (7) Only 400 points to go from 3100 to 3500. (8) Doing the math again. (9) Forecasting forward earnings. (10) Growth recession in business sales. (11) Melt-up risk. (12) Valuation models factoring inflation show market isn’t overvalued, though not cheap. (13) Movie review: “Ford v Ferrari” (+).

A Couple of Consumer Discretionary Industries
(1) Two S&P Consumer Discretionary sector industries may be headed out of favor with buyers of their products and their stocks: Homebuilding and Internet Retail. (2) Consumers know value when they see it and wait for it when they don’t. (3) Consumer discretion: the better part of value? (4) Rising mortgage rates and home prices aren’t good for homebuilders. (5) Elevated valuations aren’t good for their stocks’ future performance. (6) Internet retailers’ share prices have lagged the broader market, but perhaps justifiably so given diverse woes. (7) 3-D printing makes itself at home—and work.

Zombies in the Fed’s Soup
(1) How to watch the Fed. (2) Suffering from group-think. (3) Doubling down on faulty models. (4) An embarrassing case in point: Undershooting the inflation target for 8 years. (5) A glut of demand-side macroeconomists. (6) Debt-financed demand for goods and services can be weighed down by too much debt. (7) Borrowing by zombie companies creates deflationary excess capacity. (8) Borrowing binges, now and then. (9) The Fed is feeding the zombies, postponing the IMF’s zombie apocalypse. (10) More on comparative global valuation by sectors.

Going Global
(1) Across the pond. (2) Brexit, China, Trump, etc., etc. (3) Cabin fever revisited. (4) Everyone is going global. (5) From contrary to consensus in a few weeks. (6) Third time’s the charm for the Fed. (7) A bull market in a bull market. (8) The Fed is on pause over the next 12 months. (9) Trump’s favorite poll. (10) Bad news for bonds is good news for stocks. (11) Germany’s L-shaped bottom. (12) US vs them: comparing valuation multiples by the sectors.

Productivity Is Rebounding
(1) Setback or blip? (2) Rule #1 for Forecasters. (3) Back to the future: Big upward revision in productivity growth during second half of 1990s. It can happen again. (4) From paradox to miracle. (5) Productivity rebound is underway. (6) Confirmation coming from real hourly compensation and record-high profit margins. (7) Government’s bean-counters can take a decade to catch up with technological change. (8) The cloud and free apps may be boosting GDP and productivity, adding more beans than the bean-counters are counting. (9) YRI is virtual. (10) Movie review: “Midway” (+ +).

Energy Getting Re-Energized?
(1) S&P 500 Energy: Been down so long that it may be time to look up. (2) A trade deal would energize crude prices. So would another war in the Middle East. (3) It’s all about supply and demand. (4) An alarming article by a credible source on the potential for a war between Israel and Iran. (5) A new molecule may reduce your heating bill. (6) US government is watching Chinese companies watching us. (7) TikTok recognizes you.

What’s Up?
(1) Compelling valuations abroad. Fundamentals, not so much. (2) Latest rounds of easing by the ECB and Fed should be good for EMEs. (3) Cyclical policy stimulus vs structural lead weights. (4) Europe is full of bad economic sentiment, negative economic surprises, and weak M-PMIs—though still a great place to visit. (5) M-PMIs above 50.0 in EMEs, below that in developed economies. (6) Best bargains in S&P 500 are in Financials and Health Care. (7) Hoping the bull market broadens. (8) Targeting 3500 for end of 2020. Discounting 2021. (9) Joe slices and dices Growth vs Value some more.

It’s an Old World After All
(1) Is global slowdown all Trump’s fault? (2) Significant slowing in world production growth since early 2018. (3) Global PPIs and commodity prices confirming widespread slowdown. (4) Too much stuff: peak demand for gadgets, autos, and oil? (5) The global economy is aging and experiencing EDR disorder. (6) Lots of structural trends weighing on global auto sales. (7) US household employment shows boom in full-time jobs. (8) No stagnation here: Real wages up 1.0% per year on average since early 1990s! (9) More and more of capital spending is on high tech.

‘In a Good Place’
(1) Warm, fuzzy, cozy, safe & sound? (2) Looking for trouble, but not finding much. (3) Doing well despite all the commotion in the nation’s Capitol building. (4) Is Trump impeachable? (5) Will Trump strike out in 2020? (6) Is the Fed postponing the zombie apocalypse? (7) Consumers carrying the ball. (8) Capital spending isn’t weak across-the-board. (9) Powell ties rate hikes to inflation. (10) Inflation remains mostly MIA. (11) Gains in real wages augur well for productivity. (12) Movie review: “Parasite” (-).

As Goes Tech, So Goes the Market
(1) Tech is leading the way higher for stocks. (2) Outsized market-cap and earnings shares. (3) A third of S&P 500 market cap in IT and Communication Services. (4) Hard to keep a good FAANGM down. (5) The march of the giants. (6) A close-up of Google and Netflix. (7) Ultracapacitors vs batteries. (8) Musk is on it.

Style Guide
(1) What’s in style? (2) Fewer headwinds for Go Global. (3) Forward earnings and forward profit margins better in US than abroad. (4) Go Global is very cheap relative to Stay Home. (5) SMidCaps have better forward earnings, but worse margins than LargeCaps. (6) Growth’s earnings not growing much faster than Value’s. (7) Growth’s valuation premium to Value is historically high currently. (8) IMF sounds the alarm on potential financial instability. (9) Postponing zombie apocalypse.

Bottom Fishing
(1) Yield-curve spread swings from negative to positive. (2) Recession fears abating. (3) Why rising bond yields are bullish for stocks. (4) Simple yield-curve rules for managing monetary policy. (5) A bearish list for bonds. (6) Signs of better economic growth. (7) Even the German bond yield may be bottoming along with German economy. (8) Waiting for a bottom in industrial commodity prices. (9) S&P 500 earnings growth close to zero this year. Closer to 5% next year. (10) A few brief thoughts on Value versus Growth and SmallCaps versus LargeCaps.

Good News & Bad News
(1) Californians rushing to Texas. (2) Signs of life in Fed district business surveys. (3) Regional orders and employment indexes rose during October. (4) Upticks in flash PMIs for US. (5) GM strike and Boeing 737 MAX woes contributed to weakening durable goods orders and shipments. (6) Phase One trade agreement between US and China should provide some relief for economies of both countries. (7) Ugly outlook for federal deficit. (8) No recession in federal tax receipts. (9) Federal outlays on redistributing income at record high. (10) Movie review: “The Current War” (+ + +).

Some Well-Performing Cyclicals
(1) Outstanding year for S&P 500 so far. (2) Defensive sectors have outperformed over past three months. (3) But some cyclical sectors have performed well too. (4) Lower mortgage rates boost housing-related industries. (5) Semis on a roller-coaster. (6) A bottom in worldwide semi sales? (7) Trucking along. (8) Doing well despite trade, Boeing, and GM woes. (9) Gene editing for fun and profit. (10) Prime editing DNA.

A World of Lowflation
(1) Unconventional monetary policies are now conventional. (2) Mixed results, so far. (3) Worldwide reach for yield continues. (4) Powell’s warning in 2013 more relevant than ever. (5) Greek bonds are good credits again. (6) Deflation has been persistent problem in Japan, while low inflation prevails in the Eurozone and the US. (7) Deflation in durable goods is widespread. (8) CPI services inflation rate higher in US than in Eurozone and Japan. (9) Rent inflation is higher and has a greater weight in US CPI than in Eurozone and Japan. (10) A brief global guide for CPI wonks.

Shiller’s Bullish Trump Scenario
(1) The biggest risk to longest economic expansion may be political rather than financial. (2) Shiller’s odd theory: Consumers want to take after Trump. (3) Trump has given consumers more after-tax income with more uncertainty. (4) Big increase in personal saving since Trump was elected president. (5) No boom, no bust. (6) LEI stalls; may be running out of room to improve. (7) No surprise: Economic Surprise Index improves during second half of most years. (8) More upside surprises in US than in Eurozone. (9) Forward earnings better here than over there. (10) More bargains over there than over here. (11) Waiting for commodity prices to bottom. (12) China continues to slow.

Global Soft Patch
(1) Soft patches now and then. (2) Revenues with and without Energy. (3) Business sales growth has slowed significantly this year. (4) Forward revenues makes another new record high. (5) Industry analysts tend to be too optimistic about earnings, but realistic about revenues. (6) Not much cheer in IMF’s world economic outlook, except 2020 should be better than 2019. (7) A list for optimists. (8) Time for Go Global to outperform? (9) Online shopping releases dopamine. (10) Consumers likely to keep consuming. (11) The repo story.

Happy Bankers. Brawling Brokers.
(1) No recession in bank earnings reports. (2) Banks find profits in a flat yield curve world. (3) Firing on all cylinders. (4) Provisioning for rainy days. (5) Credit quality remains solid. (6) Asset management: Passive passes active. (7) Discount brokers go for broke with no fees for trading. (8) Competing for fee-based AUM. (9) Flying in a graphene tube with fast charging, high-powered AA batteries.

Lead Weights
(1) Strike and strike-out. (2) Troubles at GM & Boeing adding to US manufacturers’ trade woes. (3) Manufacturing output in a growth recession. (4) Civilian aircraft shipments down 30% from March-August. (5) M-PMI showed manufacturing worsening in September. (6) Some reasons for optimism. (7) Chinese PPI is deflating again, which is bad news for profits. (8) Swine flu drives China’s CPI food index up 47% y/y. (9) Not much clarity in latest Fed minutes. (10) Rate cut not a slam dunk at next FOMC meeting.

Earnings Season’s Greetings
(1) Big downward revision in Q3 earnings consensus. (2) Industry analysts turn from overly optimistic to too pessimistic as earnings reporting seasons approach. (3) 77/98 quarters of upside earnings hooks. (4) Another record high for forward earnings. (5) Global challenges for revenues growth. (6) US consumers consuming. (7) Shipments data mixed for S&P 500 Industrials and Information Technology. (8) Railroads huffing and puffing, while truckers are cruising. (9) Financials have loan demand, while margins are getting squeezed a bit. (10) Commodity producers face weak pricing.

Below the Headlines
(1) Spinning wheels to new highs. (2) Higher highs and higher lows. (3) Is Trump the pied piper for stock investors, or just the tweeter-in-chief? (4) Deal or truce? US and China stop escalating their trade war. (5) The art of the no-big-deal. (6) Forward revenues and earnings story remains resiliently bullish. (7) Profit margins reverting to the highs. (8) S&P 500 Railroads has same profit margin as lots of tech stocks. (9) Movie review: “Joker” (+ + +).

Flygskam
(1) It’s a shame to fly. (2) Will soaring flight-shaming ground airlines? (3) Environmentalism is just one of three big headwinds slamming travel-related companies. (4) Trade tensions and strong dollar are deterring foreign vacationers from US. (5) Travel analysts’ optimism is undeterred, though. (6) Will electric planes fly? (7) Mechanizing the human body. (8) The Terminator next door: New technologies equip humans with superhuman capabilities.

Helicopter Money
(1) Despite uncertainty about trade wars, small business owners remain upbeat. (2) Small business owners still want help. (3) Pricing pressures easing. (4) Earnings driving the business cycle. (5) Fewer complaints. (6) Central bankers taking helicopter flying lessons? (7) Bernanke likes the idea of monetary-financed tax cut for next recession. (8) Another round of QE could face opposition from the Left. (9) “Free” money may not be cost-free.

Cabin Fever
(1) Stay Home vs Go Global update. (2) Tactical opportunities abroad. (3) Not venturing too far. (4) US stocks are expensive, but they have better-looking revenues, earnings, and margins. (5) PMIs of emerging economies holding up well, but it would take rebounding commodity prices to warrant overweighting their shares. (6) Lots of woes in Europe, as Trump escalates trade war with the region. (7) Bad sentiment and orders. (8) German auto output may be bottoming. (9) Euro is down, which is good for exporters. (10) ECB ready and willing to fund MMT in Germany.

Depressed Purchasing Managers
(1) M-PMI distressing, while NM-PMI disconcerting. (2) Average PMI at 50.2, well above recession level of 45.8. (3) Consistent with 1.5% real GDP growth. (4) Some hard data on production and orders confirm weak average PMI; hard data on employment not so much. (5) The Fed isn’t done easing, as Powell wants to keep us in “a good place.” (6) Fed may be aiming to avert an inverted yield curve. (7) No recession in credit-quality spreads. (8) Weak PMIs bad for S&P 500 revenues growth but good for prospects of Fed easing. (9) PMIs explain Growth vs Value performance derby. (10) Emerging markets’ PMIs showing some life; advanced economies not so much.

No Recession in Analysts’ Forecasts
(1) Taking no prisoners: Manufacturing gloom hits both safety and growth stocks. (2) Analysts’ 2020 earnings estimates hold firm-so far. (3) Boeing boosts Industrials’ 2020 earnings, if it can get the 737 Max in the air. (4) IPO market shows some sense by rejecting WeWork. (5) Shared office space providers will abound, with or without WeWork. (6) Landlords: Beware of SPEs. (7) Plastic Energy has one solution for the world’s plastic problem.

Looking Forward to 2021
(1) We didn’t start the fire. (2) Updating Billy Joel’s list of troubles. (3) M-PMI drops below 50.0, but not to recession level. (4) Regional business surveys also weak through September. (5) Exports index takes a dive. (6) M-PMI signaling S&P 500 revenues recession, but NM-PMI remained upbeat through August. (7) Meanwhile, S&P 500 forward revenues and earnings at record highs. (8) Forward profit margin holding steady around 12.0%. (9) Another regime change ahead: From community organizers to deal makers to central planners? (10) Catching up on Elizabeth Warren’s 45 plans.

Inflation Roundup
(1) Consumer inflation remains subdued. (2) Hard to hit 2.0% inflation target. (3) No inflation in consumer nondurable goods. (4) Medical care services has lower inflation and higher weight in PCED than CPI. (5) Rent of shelter has above-average inflation rate in both PCED and CPI, but less weight in the former. (6) Why is CPI inflation higher in US than in Eurozone and Japan? (7) Nonsensical vs sensible: CPI-adjusted wages have been stagnating for 40 years, while PCED-adjusted wages have been on solid uptrend since mid-1990s. (8) Will Brexit be postponed again?

California Dreamin’
(1) Never say “never.” (2) Asking favors. (3) Trump berates China at UN. (4) Banning US investments in China? (5) Fatalistic pessimism in California: Socialism is coming. (6) Funding a Universal Basic Income with taxes on the wealthy and MMT. (7) The next financial crisis. (8) The curse of negative interest rates. (9) Happy thoughts. (10) Four alternative scenarios for the impeachment process. (11) Down and out in Beverly Hills. (12) Movie review: “Downton Abbey” (+ +).

The Utility of Utilities
(1) Political storms send investors running for cover. (2) Utilities fill the bill. (3) Safety in dividend and earnings numbers. (4) Investors take defensive refuge in other fast-growing and income-providing S&P 500 sectors too. (5) Onward and upward for technology innovation. (6) Prepare to be disrupted: the latest in quantum computing, robots, drones, and high-tech tunneling. (7) Are used cars the new new cars? (8) CarMax: not your father’s Oldsmobile dealer.

Flow of Funds (FOF)
(1) Americans collectively are richer than ever. (2) Record wealth-to-income ratio. (3) Americans own lots of equities directly and indirectly. (4) Biggest asset for households is value of their pension entitlements. (5) Homeowners and small business owners prospering too. (6) State & local pensions are 48% unfunded, while private pensions are fully funded. (7) Home mortgage debt has been flat since the Great Financial Crisis. (8) Fed data cast doubt on three common myths about nonfinancial corporations. (9) Draghi’s swan song: All he is saying is give MMT a chance.

The Dissenters
(1) Ugly data out of Germany. (2) What’s wrong with Germany’s economy? (3) German autos getting sideswiped. (4) Chinese EVs are coming. (5) Germans like budget surpluses. (6) Germany’s green new deal likely to weigh on economy. (7) Despite global economic slowdown, S&P 500 revenues continue to grow. (8) Powell sees dissent as healthy counter to groupthink at the Fed. (9) Three dissenters. (10) Rosengren makes a persuasive case against easing. (11) Not so persuasive on financial instability. (12) Is co-working model bad for real estate?

Powell’s Latest Mid-Cycle Adjustment
(1) Avoiding off-the-cuff remarks. (2) Powell repeats his mantra more often: “Fed is data dependent.” (3) More uncertainty. (4) On the same page with Powell: Yield curve’s recession signal distorted by negative bond yields overseas. (5) Powell not ready to satisfy Trump’s NIRP envy. (6) The Fed may be done for the rest of the year. (7) Trade uncertainty weighing on business spending. (8) Fed’s dot plot is a work in progress.

From Downhill to Uphill
(1) Railroads’ uphill climb. (2) Tariffs, end of margin gains, competition from truckers, and market disruption from (who else?) Amazon et al. throw rails off track. (3) Doing the Valuation Shuffle. (4) Stagnant S&P 500 P/E belies much churn among its sectors. (5) Value and Growth stocks have been mixing things up too, with Value outperforming Growth for a change. (6) Tossing stablecoin concept around, with vocal supporters and detractors.

China’s Hurting
(1) Managing China’s declining growth rate. (2) A lot of homegrown structural problems. (3) Trade war with US is weighing on China’s economy too. (4) Showing signs of wanting to make a deal with US. (5) Lots of hard data. (6) Growth of industrial production and real retail sales both fall below 5.0%. (7) Excerpts of woeful tales. (8) Another important Fed meeting. Aren’t they all?

More on Inflation
(1) Truth or dare in the Middle East. (2) Robert Hardy weighs in on latest attack on Saudi oil assets. (3) It was a professional hit job. (4) Plenty of oil reserves to cushion the blow if Saudi production is restored quickly. (5) Growing bank loans to business discredit inverted-yield-curve scare. (6) Over-weighted rent biasing CPI measures of inflation higher vs PCED measures. (7) Despite higher tariffs, import price inflation remains muted. (8) Surveys of pricing pressure showing less of it. (9) PPI inflation for trucking stuff taking a dive.

Inflation Warming Up?
(1) Arrivederci, Draghi. (2) Draghi’s gift to his successor. (3) Whole enchilada: more of whatever it takes. (4) Draghi’s MMT plea to Eurozone governments: Take the ECB’s free money and spend it. (5) German bond market worrying it might work. (6) Going more negative. (7) APP will monetize €240 billion per year in Eurozone governments’ debts to infinity and beyond. (8) Lagarde is no Tinker Bell. (9) Core CPI inflation is heating up, while core PCED inflation rate remains cool. (10) Why are they diverging? (11) Not alarmed by latest CPI’s alarm. (12) Movie review: “Luce” (+ +).

No Shortage of Gluts
(1) There’s no business like show business. (2) Lots of streams for streamers. (3) Bingeing on “Grey’s Anatomy.” (4) Big bucks for content. (5) Fee wars. (6) Gloom in Frankfurt Auto Show. (7) Too many car companies as tech disrupts the auto market. (8) Comparing market-cap shares to earnings shares of S&P 500 sectors. (9) Robots running wild on college campuses.

Yields Backing Up
(1) Despite another round of easy money, bond yields move higher. (2) It’s more about German recession than no-deal Brexit. (3) German fiscal policy may provide more oomph. (4) Draghi’s parting plea. (5) Recession fears abate as CESI rebounds, depressing bond prices. (6) Quits at record high. (7) Small business owners can’t find help. (8) Fed’s favorite inflation measure remains under 2.0%, while alternative measures show somewhat higher inflation.

More Easing
(1) Try, try again. (2) PBOC cuts reserve requirements again. (3) BOJ concerned about strong yen, thinking negative thoughts again. (4) Fed acting appropriately as usual. (5) Draghi’s last act. (6) A package deal coming from the ECB. (7) Germans finding it harder to criticize ECB’s easy money. (8) Lagarde is in Draghi’s camp. (9) Lots of low-octane fuel not working well in global economic engine. (10) Dull Beige Book with weak spots. (11) Lots of uncertainty about trade. (12) Lots of labor shortages.

Bottom Line on Top Line
(1) Another geopolitical crisis, another buying opportunity. (2) The Chinese may actually want a deal, while Boris Johnson’s no-deal Brexit may be on ice. (3) PMI picture not great, but not bad for S&P 500 revenues. (4) Upbeat services industries offsetting downbeat manufacturing in the US, and overseas too. (5) Weak auto sales in Europe and China are a big part of global manufacturing’s woes. (6) Latest batch of labor indicators is a very mixed bag. (7) Our Earned Income Proxy jumps to another record high. (8) Consumers are in good shape.

Winners & Losers
(1) Stock market looks great ytd. Not so great y/y. (2) Despite record volumes, trucking industry tapping on the brakes as trade war hits spot freight market. (3) Lots of challenges for auto industry. (4) Tech stocks doing relatively well. (5) A bottom in world semiconductor sales? (6) The US capital markets remain wide open for business. (7) A big year for IPOs. (8) No credit crunch in the bond market.

Industry Analysts’ World Tour
(1) Industry analysts remain upbeat on revenues despite depressing headline news. (2) Forward revenues are at record highs in both the US and overseas. (3) Forward revenues rising among developed economies, stalling at record high among emerging economies. (4) Latest US M-PMI is bad news for revenues growth, though consistent with 1.8% growth in real GDP. (5) A world of mostly sub-50.0 M-PMIs. (6) Based on MSCIs, forward earnings has been stalling in US and weakening overseas since early last year. (7) Unintended consequences beat intended ones from negative-interest-rate policies.

FONIR Down South
(1) Fearing negative interest rates more than yield-curve inversion. (2) ECB’s Governing Council likely to go more negative at next meeting. (3) A world of NIRPs and NIRBs. (4) From TINA to FOMO to FONIR. (5) Bullish vs bearish fears. (6) S&P 500 forward earnings yield and dividend yield exceeding bond yield. (7) FONIR driving outperformance of dividend-yielding stocks and boosting their valuation multiples. (8) S&P 500 real yields remain solidly positive as real bond yield turns negative. (9) The US stands out in all sorts of ways, including GDP growth, energy production, and profit margins. (10) Movie review: “Blinded by the Light” (+ +).

Running Out of Gas
(1) Setting the record straight on stock buybacks. (2) The Fed acknowledges that data on employee stock compensation plans are MIA. (3) Lots of traffic as car sales slow around the world. (4) Ridesharing is having an impact. (5) Why are German autos in a ditch? (6) Greener autos. (7) Chinese supply of autos accelerating, while Chinese demand is slowing. (8) Tougher emission standards. (9) Brexit again. (10) Carney has some thoughts on cryptocurrencies.

Abnormal Times
(1) Former Fed head Dudley joins the resistance. (2) Exploding heads. (3) Depressing global economic headlines. (4) Fiscal and monetary stimulus losing their effectiveness as trade policies increase uncertainty. (5) In US, tax-cut boost to growth is wearing off already. (6) What’s the matter with Germany? (7) Yet: S&P 500 forward revenues and earnings at record highs. (8) CBO predicting trillion-dollar budget deficits for the next 10 years, with Treasury debt rising to $21 trillion by 2029. (9) Lots of assumptions. (10) A hard Brexit may be too hard to swallow.

Fed’s New Obsession with ELB
(1) Is ELB the same as zero, or something south of that? (2) Slippery slope. (3) Should the Fed have done more? (4) Wondering what to do if ELB goes to zero? Ask the ECB and BOJ! (5) Recalling Powell’s recent ELB nightmare speech. (6) The Fed has become the world’s central bank of last resort. (7) Three reasons why the Fed eased at the end of July. (8) A few by-the-way comments on financial stability. (9) Fed’s pirouette puts focus back on ELB. (10) History lesson: QE2 was the alternative to negative rates.

Trump’s Game of Chicken
(1) Trump is playing game of chicken with Powell and Xi. (2) Trump’s enemies list. (3) Turning more reckless. (4) Stay Home still beats Go Global. (5) More rate cuts ahead. (6) Recalling “Rebel Without a Cause.” (7) Is Trump trumping Powell, Xi, or Trump? (8) Powell’s “favorable place” is less so. (9) Trump’s risky game plan: Powell turns chicken first, then Xi follows.

Consumers Still Consuming
(1) The issue for consumer spending isn’t one of whether but where. (2) Wallets are cracking open in many a retail channel, just not department or electronics/appliances stores. (3) Broad spending indicators are flashing green, as consumers’ jobs outlook is rosy. (4) Saving rates are up too. (5) Target and the home improvement retailers are in the right place at the right time. (6) The greenback may get a run for its money as digital currencies spring up.

Bonds in Neverland
(1) Unconventional monetary policies become conventional. (2) From the Old Normal to the New Normal to the New Abnormal. (3) Fed aborts normalization. (4) ECB reverses course. (5) BOJ never even considered leaving Neverland. (6) PBOC continues to inflate greatest credit bubble in history. (7) Negative mortgage rates in Denmark. (8) The tether gets tighter in global bond market. (9) TIPS on the verge of going negative? (10) Negative real rates may have more to do with geriatric demographic outlook than with productivity.

Searching for Growth
(1) Weekly S&P 500 forward revenues remain impressive, still making new highs. (2) No recession in quarterly S&P 500 revenues, which also rose to new high during Q2. (3) Corporate managers managing to find solid revenues growth in slow-growing global economy. (4) Small spread between growth rates in aggregate and per-share revenues. (5) Lots of cyclically weak growth indicators. Are they nearing bottoms? (6) Intermodal railcar traffic is in a recession. (7) Soft patch for earnings, or just tough y/y comps? (8) Forward earnings at record high. (9) Doing the math on S&P 500 targets.

Productivity Could Frustrate Endgamers
(1) Dueling leading indicators: The yield curve vs the S&P 500. (2) Trump doesn’t like inverted yield curves. (3) Meetings in the Heartland. (4) No recession evident in retail sales or GDPNow estimate. (5) Predicting 10 out of 7 recessions. (6) No sign of a credit crunch. (7) The endgame doomsters love bad news. (8) Labor shortages should stimulate productivity. (9) The beginning of a major rebound in productivity growth? (10) Real compensation growth is really making a comeback. (11) Unit labor cost inflation based on ECI remains subdued, which is subduing price inflation. (12) Revisions don’t change the productivity story. (13) Movie review: “One Child Nation” (+ + +).

Another Curve Ball
(1) Inverted yield curve panics algos. (2) Our research shows it’s credit crunches that cause recessions, not inverted yield curves. (3) So far, credit is flowing freely and the Fed is easing. (4) Inverted yield curves don’t invert net interest margins for the banks. (5) China’s version of Amazon thrives despite slowing growth. (6) Semis get battered on global growth fears. (7) Tesla’s stock going nowhere, but its business is still growing. (8) Plummeting battery prices and tough European regulations making renewable energy and electric cars viable.

China, China, China
(1) Growing old before growing rich. (2) Dazzling infrastructure. (3) Ghost trains and ghost airports? (4) Bordering on PPI deflation again. (5) M1 growth weak, while M2 growth heading lower. (6) Less bang per yuan. (7) Trump’s Christmas present. (8) Hong Kong is a no-win for Beijing. (9) Meet Xi Jinping. (10) Meet Hu Xijin.

Less Than Zero: From FOMO to FONIR
(1) Long trip to Boston. (2) Like the weather, the stock market is volatile this summer. (3) More nervousness about recession scenario. (4) Credit crunches cause recessions. (5) Is the Fed listening to the yield curve, Trump, or both? (6) Sentiment remains bullish on balance. (7) TINA, FOMO, and FONIR. (8) Trump has NIRP envy. (9) NIRP not doing much to revive Eurozone and Japan. (10) US bond yields tethered to yields in Germany and Japan.

What’s the Matter With Profits?
(1) Record Chinese exports despite global slowdown. (2) OECD economies bottoming? (3) US labor market remains strong. (4) Annual revisions don’t change big picture on GDP, but profits are weaker than before. (5) Compensation revised higher. (6) S&P 500 aggregate earnings don’t get revised and are in record-high territory. (7) So why the downward revision in NIPA profits if S&P 1500 earnings remains strong? (8) Sub-chapter S corporations have a big impact on profits-related comparisons. (9) Profits’ share of National Income down, while compensation’s share is up. (10) S&P 500 profit margin and comparable NIPA measure diverging in recent years. (11) Fruit cocktail vs orange juice. (12) Warning label.

World Woe I
(1) Trump is a disruptor. (2) Trump may outsmart himself. (3) Lots of huffing and puffing. (4) Trump needs the Fed to lower interest rates to offset delayed China deal. (5) Commodity prices falling. (6) Germany is the gasping canary in the factory. (7) Energy is the biggest loser. (8) China has lots of dollar-denominated debt. (9) Technology continues to disrupt.

Tariff Man vs Mao Man
(1) Deal or no deal? (2) Hardliners in China and in the US have the upper hand. (3) Escalating trade war. (4) Chinese checkers is a game with winners and losers. (5) Trade works best when there are no losers. (6) China has more at risk than US. (7) Currency war unlikely. (8) Xi wants Trump to lose the next election. (9) Trump expects Xi to do a deal once he wins another term in the White House. (10) Trumping the Fed. (11) Xi’s homegrown problems. (12) For Trump, the endgame may be simply to push supply chains out of China, which is happening already.

TINA Versus TIAA
(1) The case for cash. (2) Yet another panic attack? (3) Trade war morphs into currency war. (4) Is Hong Kong about to become Tiananmen Square? (5) Weaker yuan offsets some of tariff costs to US consumers. (6) Buffett sitting on record pile of cash. (7) Despite the depressing global economic headlines, S&P 500 forward revenues and earnings at record highs! (8) Will global manufacturing growth recession turn into a full-blown downturn? (9) Eurozone, China, and Japan have homegrown problems.

Trump’s Trump
(1) Powell gets Trumped again. (2) Midcycle rate cut triggered by “uncertainties.” (3) The end of QT. (4) More rate cuts might still be appropriate, or not. (5) Powell is a perplexing pivoter. (6) Trump feeds Fed more trade uncertainty. (7) US real exports and imports have stopped growing. (8) Record US trade deficit even though oil deficit is almost gone. (9) With the exception of hours worked, latest employment report was solid. (10) Movie review: “The Farewell” (+ +).

Cleaning Up
(1) Innovation and pricing help Consumer Staples post positive surprises. (2) Shaving is out, but clean clothes are still in. (3) Chinese consumers are young, optimistic, and spending on cosmetics. (4) Coke and Pepsi courting the health conscious. (5) Nuclear fusion: It’s not fission or a spicy new cuisine. (6) Several companies chase the opportunity to jolt the world with nuclear fusion.

Dividing Up Wealth
(1) Exacerbated wealth inequality is a natural byproduct of a prolonged economic expansion. (2) Inevitably in a capitalist system, financial risk-takers benefit more than others in flush times, lose more in lean times. (3) A new Fed report on household net worth highlights these facts of capitalist life. (4) One takeaway: The wealthy’s wealth is more cyclical than other folks’ owing to bigger corporate equity stakes. (5) Another: Our rising economic tide of recent decades has lifted all boats, not just the yachts. (6) Should retired public-sector employees be counted among the wealthy?

The World According to Garp
(1) Global economic dysfunction isn’t all about Trump’s trade wars. (2) Low fertility rates around the world suggest voluntary self-extinction of the human race. (3) Debt financed fiscal spending on retirement benefits may be weighing on growth. (4) Central banks still doing whatever it takes, including enabling MMT. (5) Fiscal and monetary policies for geriatric economies. (6) Global manufacturing weighed down by trade wars and geriatric demographic profiles. (7) US economy seems less dysfunctional than many overseas economies.

The Fed Ahead
(1) Fed likely to reset policy course. (2) Economy doesn’t need a rate cut. (3) Risking a meltup and running out of ammo next time it is really needed. (4) Bostic isn’t flying with the FOMC doves, but he doesn’t have a vote either. (5) Bostic reviews the various measures of inflation. (6) Getting more attention: Dallas trimmed mean measure is around 2.0%. (7) More doves than hawks. (8) Movie review: “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood” (- -).

Targeting Big Tech
(1) Internet War Game: DOJ vs FANGs. (2) Investors trust that anti-trust is tough to prove. (3) Harm to customers may be a lower bar for Barr. (4) S&P 500 Industrials is rocking it, outperforming the broad index and in third place among sectors ytd. (5) Boosting the sector ytd are ten industries, including Aerospace & Defense. (6) A scary world and a free-spending Congress mean defense won’t be attacked. (7) The industry’s P/E has fallen to a very grounded 16.6. (8) Crouching credit crunch in China? (9) Rising defaults are ominous in a slowing economy with mammoth amounts of debt outstanding: $25 trillion of corporate bonds and bank loans.

Mark to Market
(1) The Boom-Bust Barometer is running out of room to boom. (2) There’s no ceiling on forward earnings, which is in record-high territory. (3) Yet another record high for forward revenues. (4) Another hook up for quarterly earnings? (5) Using the Blue Angels as a valuation model. (6) Some moon shots in the fundamentals of selected retailers.

Valuation Here & There
(1) The ideal mix of inflation, interest rates, and growth might be 2-2-2. (2) Low growth is good growth the longer it lasts. (3) Why are analysts’ long-term earnings growth expectations so high? (4) Blame Consumer Discretionary, not Tech this time. (5) PEG ratios aren’t extreme. (6) Heads or tails? High P/Es win either way? (7) Stay Home investment strategy is still winning and driving up US P/Es relative to the rest of the world. (8) Five MSCI sectors have higher P/Es in US than abroad. Tech is not one of them!

Mixed Signals
(1) Trucks are rolling along better than freight trains. (2) Consumers boost some bank earnings. (3) Forward earnings at another record high. (4) Typical earnings hook ahead? (5) S&P 500 profit margin remains very profitable. (6) Lots of questions about valuation. (7) Low Misery Index boosting P/Es. (8) Real earnings yield fairly valued. (9) Buffett says ignore Buffett Ratio. (10) The economic data are mixed, while the Fed’s Williams is mixed up. (11) Is near-zero inflation really an “insidious disease?” (12) Clarida is ready to ease.

Consumers Unchained
(1) Consumers spending like there’s no tomorrow—just not at department stores. (2) Retail sales hit another record high. (3) Flying consumers send airline earnings flying. (4) Consumer borrowing boosts bank earnings. (5) Transports yet to make a new high. (6) Senate throws the book at Facebook’s Libra. (7) Trump, Mnuchin, Powell, and France question the digital currency.

Central Bankers’ Ballet
(1) Meet ballerina Alexandra MacDonald. (2) Draghi & Powell: From pirouette to pas de deux. (3) June ECB minutes confirm broad support for easing. (4) Draghi’s latest “whatever-it-takes” speech. (5) Both ECB and Fed have second thoughts about normalizing. (6) Why are ECB and Fed officials freaking out? (7) Powell’s speech yesterday was a feather less dovish than last Thursday’s testimony. (8) The delusion of central bankers.

Truck & Train Spotting
(1) To be bullish, Dow Theory needs new high for DJTA. (2) Railroads are fine. The problem is Air Freight & Logistics. (3) US & China data showing global economy weaker than their domestic economies. (4) Record employment in trucking. (5) Trucks’ crossing: Wage inflation rising, while PPI inflation falling. (6) Railcar loadings growth signaling recession? (7) West Coast ports activity stalled at record high. (8) China railway freight traffic still on uptrend, while trade data stalls. (9) Powell seeing more slack in labor market than he did before.

Wuthering Heights
(1) Emily Brontë and the S&P 500. (2) Anxiety fatigue. (3) High P/Es make stocks more vulnerable to downdrafts. (4) Forward revenues and earnings rose to record highs in early July. (5) Earnings growth recession now, but market looking ahead to recovery next year. (6) No change in our bullish S&P 500 targets. (7) FAANGMs account for 18% of S&P 500 market cap and are hard to beat. (8) Powell doubles down on Fed’s easing pirouette. (9) Movie review: “Maiden” (+ + +).

Powell Gets Trumped!
(1) The Fed responds to Trump’s trade war. (2) Powell mentioned “trade” eight times yesterday. (3) Method in Trump’s madness. (4) The Fed’s existential crisis: Inflation isn’t a monetary phenomenon. (5) FANGs getting bitten. (6) Ten Asian rivers account for most of the plastic garbage in the oceans. (7) Getting hyper on hyperloops. (8) Consumers still in the mood to spend and have fun.

Fedspeak
(1) From plain-vanilla Fed governor to Numero Uno. (2) Learning-by-doing. (3) The power of words. (4) Powell’s, Put, Pivot, and Pirouette. (5) What does Powell mean to do next? (6) The Fed’s wordsmith department. (7) “Measured” was Greenspan’s favorite word. (8) Firming was needed before the Great Recession, then exceptionally low interest rates were the order of the day. (9) Defining “extended period.” (10) From “gradual” to “patient” to “appropriate,” and back again to what? (11) Keeping it real simple.

Global Economy: More Slow-Mo
(1) Powell’s Pivot and Pirouette will be tested this week. (2) The comforts of a Stay Home investment strategy. (3) Payroll employment zigs and zags the fixed-income markets. (4) One-and-done or none-and-done? (5) 50, 25, or zero bps? (6) Do the ECB and BOJ matter more than the Fed? (7) What’s wrong with Germany? (8) Sol y sombra: NM-PMI & M-PMI. (9) Leading to no good. (10) Forward revenues still on sunny side.

Another Powell Pivot Ahead?
(1) Neither weak demand nor dwindling supply in labor market, so far. (2) In our best-case scenario, productivity offsets labor shortages. (3) Labor force growth slows to a trickle. (4) Productivity growth collapsed during the Great Inflation and Great Recession. (5) The case for better real pay gains. (6) Good for consumers: Earned Income Proxy at record high. (7) Is a Fed rate cut still appropriate? (8) Will Powell pivot again?

Plastic: The Last Straw
(1) Let’s hit the beach. (2) Fracking boom sparks explosion in ethane production and plastic plants. (3) The plastics industry is a large driver of future demand for oil and gas. (4) Plastics getting trashed from all directions as recycling and reduced use are pushed by the woke, including some in corporate America. (5) Revised advice for this year’s graduates? (6) Companies embracing robots. (7) Waiting for robots to flip burgers at 4th of July BBQs.

The Rodney Dangerfield of Economic Expansions
(1) Happy birthday, expansion, and many more! (2) No boom, no bust. (3) The Trauma of 2008. (4) Longest expansion is also one of the most lag-prone expansions. (5) Credit crunches cause recessions, not old age. (6) Distressed asset funds are the new shock absorber in the credit markets. (7) Not enough distressed assets for DAFs. (8) Powell’s mini credit meltdown. (9) Do buybacks drive the stock market or vice-versa? (10) Joe’s updated analysis still finds negligible impact of share count on stock performance.

Glittering Gold, Soaring Bitcoin
(1) Trump & Xi agree to keep talking. (2) Putting more tariffs on hold. (3) Trump has a need to win. (4) Fed back on pause? (5) A golden year so far for gold. (6) Ultra is making a comeback in easy monetary policy. (7) Gold price inversely correlated with TIPS yield. (8) The copper/gold ratio coincides with US bond yield. (9) With inflation in a coma, gold may be a hedge against global political turmoil. (10) Bad batch of Eurozone and US economic indicators. (11) Bitcoin more like digital tulips than stable money. (12) The key to unlock ransomware is priced in bitcoins. (13) Movie review: “Yesterday” (+ +).

Turbulence for FedEx
(1) Fed’s Powell confirms our thinking: Don’t bank on a rate cut just yet. (2) “Appropriate” doesn’t mean imminent. (3) FedEx’s Smith frowns upon the US’s and China’s trade behavior. (4) FedEx hurt by slowing trade, but more’s afoot too. (5) S&P 500 Air Freight & Logistics industry has crashed so far it may be a bargain. (6) Shopify disrupting retail by helping little guys compete. (7) Planning to visit the “Most Interesting Store in the World.”

Earnings Season’s Greetings
(1) Get ready for another quarterly upside hook. (2) S&P 500 forward revenues and earnings per share at record highs. (3) Will macro slowdown show up in micro earnings reports? (4) Consumers are in a good place, though their confidence moderated a bit in June. (5) Are jobs really getting harder to find, or are skill mismatches getting worse? (6) Home sales should get a lift from lower mortgage rates. (7) Business equipment production is mostly down ytd with exception of information processing equipment. (8) Defense output taking off. (9) Mixed picture: trucks vs railroads. (10) Bank loans at record high. (11) Hard to find anything good to say about overseas economies. (12) Two studies with different results about S&P 500’s foreign sales exposure.

Lots of Central Bank Liquidity
(1) Normalization will have to wait. (2) Powell, Draghi, and Draghi. (3) Bears are still fighting the central banks. (4) The bears’ favorite chart has been mostly bullish. (5) The Powell Pivot has turned into the Powell Pirouette. (6) QT set to end in US. QE might be back on in Eurozone soon. (7) Kuroda, like Peter Pan, taking the BOJ to Neverland. (8) PBOC’s assets flatten, but cuts in required reserves boosting bank loans. (9) Clash of the titans: central banks vs the 4Ds. (10) Central banks are dependent on (weak) data.

Relief Rally #63
(1) What’s next: more new highs or yet another panic attack? (2) Geopolitics getting more attention. (3) Jerome Powell is on standby to respond to China, Iran, or any other crisis. (4) Mario Draghi wants to help too. (5) Still traumatized by Trauma of 2008. (6) A list of 63 panic attacks. (7) New stock market highs despite inverting yield curve. (8) LEI stalls at record high. (9) CEI signaling slower GDP growth, not recession. (10) The Fed’s word game. (11) “Patient” and “transient” are out, while “appropriate” is in. (12) July rate cut not a sure thing.

Oil & Libra
(1) There’s power in US energy independence. (2) OPEC and global GDP pushing oil in opposite directions. (3) Oil rallies on Trump/Xi meeting news. (4) Agencies cut oil forecasts. (5) US rig count falling but oil still gushing. (6) Plastics, solar, and electric cars shape oil’s future. (7) Facebook says, “Trust us with your money…really.” (8) Tech giant wants to be a banking giant, too.

Whatever It Takes, Again
(1) Can monetary policy fix all problems? (2) Pumping more liquidity. (3) Wealth Effect isn’t trickling down. (4) NIRP in Europe and Japan. (5) Draghi ready to do more of whatever. (6) Modern Tether Theory of the US bond market. (7) Draghi as Sisyphus. (8) EU car sales hitting bottom? (9) Powell’s new obsession: ELB. (10) Is ELB lower than ZLB? (11) The Fed doesn’t have much powder left and should keep it dry. (12) Stocks after first rate cut.

Progressive Economics for Dummies (PED)
(1) Everything for free. (2) Wealth taxes and MMT. (3) Heaven on Earth for all. (4) Are you better off than you were 20 years ago? (5) Never enough. (6) Bill and Elizabeth’s excellent adventure. (7) So why are consumers so upbeat? (8) Happy to quit. (9) Real pay per worker on uptrend since 2000, and so is real income per household. (10) Only 1.3 million taxpayers are in the 1% club. (11) S corporations exaggerate profits’ share of national income. (12) Why are corporations buying their shares back after they’ve run up so much? (13) MMT will make your head spin.

The Mice That Roared
(1) A big mess from one end of the globe to the other. (2) The world’s economy is flat. (3) Why are stocks holding up so well? (4) Donald Trump vs Peter Sellers: US roars back at all the roaring mice. (5) The Fed is ready to help if need be. (6) Inflation is still MIA. (7) Industry analysts remain mostly upbeat on revenues and earnings. (8) Q2 earnings estimates down y/y, but not by much. (9) American consumers doing what they do best. (10) The Fed is listening mostly to academics.

Material World
(1) The metal with the PhD in Economics has been a doomsayer for the past year, depressed by trade issues. (2) Copper price has lost 19% y/y, and the S&P 500 Copper stock price index more than twice that. (3) Only this past week has some luster returned. (4) But all that glitters isn’t copper; other S&P 500 Materials-sector industries have been sparkling ytd. (5) Prospects for Construction Materials—also an economic barometer—look particularly bright. (6) New, new thing in retail—stores without addresses or inventory—are giving traditional retailers, Amazon included, a run for their money.

Positive Spins
(1) Is the problem the demand for or the supply of labor? (2) Finally running out of qualified workers. (3) Job openings exceed unemployed workers by record amount. (4) Lots more job openings in cyclical industries, including durables manufacturing and construction. (5) Fewer openings in retail. (6) Labor force shrinking again as Baby Boomers retire faster than younger adults seek jobs. (7) Lots of help wanted at small businesses. (8) Counting on productivity. (9) No recession in latest C&I loans. (10) Fed survey finds that most Americans are comfortable.

Global Scorecard
(1) Spreading soft patch. (2) Easing does it for a while longer. (3) Trump will make or break the global outlook. (4) Famous last words: There will be peace in our time. (5) No rush to leave home and go global. (6) Using China’s trade data to assess the global economy. (7) Still looking like a slowdown rather than a downturn. (8) Europe has problems. (9) Some important soft patches in US. (10) Beige Book is neither red nor green.

Paris, Maine
(1) Watching mountains. (2) Absurd policies possible in the New Abnormal. (3) A deal with Mexico. (4) He said, Xi said. (5) Another panic attack rather than start of bear market? (6) Plenty of job openings, while labor force is shrinking. (7) Wage gains outpacing price increases, as productivity is rebounding. (8) A happy version of the New Abnormal. (9) The 4Ds keeping a tight lid on inflation. (10) Pity the impotent central bankers.

Big Government vs Big FANGs
(1) Is Powell ready to pull the trigger for a rate cut? (2) Fed’s latest word game. (3) What does “appropriate” mean? (4) Is Powell ready to fly with the doves? (5) The debate about a “makeup” strategy for inflation targeting. (6) Rate-cutting risks causing financial instability. (7) Comparing 2019 to 1999. (8) Willy Sutton and the FANGs. (9) Bullish for lobbyists and lawyers. (10) Remember what happened to Microsoft. (11) Growth is scarce. FANGs have it.

Are Analysts Unperturbed or Uninformed?
(1) Are industry analysts too busy to watch the news? (2) Waiting for guidance. (3) Q2 earnings season is coming. (4) Consensus revenues forecasts remain upbeat in the US and abroad. (5) Q1 revenues and earnings growth rates hit cyclical lows? (6) Falling share count added 2.3ppts to Q1 per-share revenues and earnings growth. (7) Blaming the weather, the dollar, and trade tensions. (8) Macro indicators for revenues remain subdued. (9) Looking like an earnings growth recession during H1. (10) The earnings hook again. (11) Joe finds no significant relationship between buybacks and stock prices.

Uncharted Waters
(1) One more month to go to US economy’s 10-year jubilee. (2) LEI does look toppy. (3) More record highs ahead for CEI. (4) No boom, no bust. But what about protectionism? (5) Jury is out on Trump’s helter-skelter approach to trade. (6) Some misgivings about LEI signals during the longest expansion on record. (7) Some cyclical indicators (like jobless claims) simply can’t get much better. (8) Business loans at record high. (9) Borrowing by NFCs in the bond market cooled off dramatically last year. Why?

Trade: Helter Skelter
(1) Stepping up the pressure on Mexico. (2) Will there be any relief for the latest panic attack? (3) Recession signals from the bond market? (4) Yield curve predicting easier monetary policy. (5) US beef with China is about more than just trade. (6) China’s M-PMI shows weakening economy. (7) Mexican standoff. (8) Clarida’s Put. (9) Slicing and dicing NIPA profits. (9) Movie review: “Rocketman” (+ +).

Tapping the Brakes
(1) Are Transports hitting a speed bump? (2) What’s shaking the movers? (3) Shipping hitting tariffs sand bar. (4) Truckers fear the growing Bezos transportation empire. (5) Rail traffic chu-chug-ging slower. (6) Air Freight & Logistics company warns supply chains are up in the air pending tariff resolution. (7) Suffering from senior moments? There are apps for that.

Bonds Have More Fun
(1) Wrong-way bond forecasts. (2) Tethered at the hip. (3) Bond Vigilantes vs Yield Reachers. (4) US bond yields remain outstanding in a world of NZIRP, ZIRP, NIRP, and QE. (5) Low inflation driving bond yields. (6) Economic surprise index also driving bond yields. (7) Yields fall as consumer optimism rebounds. (8) The trade war’s impact. (9) Summers and Krugman attack Kelton’s MMT. (10) Our argument against MMT: Too much debt weighs on growth and can be deflationary.

Game of Thrones
(1) A disappointing ending. (2) Trump’s Game of Thrones spans the world. (3) The new endgame scenario includes no end to trade war with China. (4) Another bearish May will soon go away. (5) Mixed messages from credit markets. (6) The dollar is betting on Trump to win the trade war with China. (7) Both sides still need a deal, but they need to resume trade talks. (8) Panic Attack #63? (9) The world economy remains in pain. (10) Stable genius vs Mao in a business suit. (11) Trump’s iron throne doesn’t have the power to unseat Powell from his Chair. (12) Trump and Pelosi rant wars.

CEOs Discussing Tariffs
(1) In the trade war’s trenches. (2) Coming back to America. (3) Leaving China, seeking new suppliers. (4) Earnings hits coming. (5) A letter of protest from sneaker companies. (6) The not-so-good earth for farmers. (7) Huawei getting chipped. (8) It was a really bad winter. (9) Department Stores on sale. (10) Home Improvement Retail fundamentals still improving.

Will Trade Winds Blow Away Earnings?
(1) Q1 earnings tick up y/y. (2) Q2 earnings consensus showing y/y downtick. (3) Escalating trade war starting to weigh on revenues? (4) Forward earnings moving higher. (5) Forward profit margin bottoming at 12%? (6) Boom-Bust Barometer drops along with CRB commodity index. (7) Earnings growth momentum due for a rebound. (8) Still expecting a peace dividend by the end of the summer. (9) Our new comprehensive study on buybacks. (10) Counting shares for the S&P 500 since Q1-2011. (11) Powell’s unalarming speech on corporate debt.

US Consumers: Still Born To Shop?
(1) The United States of Consumers. (2) Blaming the winter weather. (3) We are all minimalists now. (4) Soft patch for consumer spending? (5) Auto sales and gasoline usage may have peaked. (6) Home improvement sales likely to improve. (7) Consumer sentiment at new cyclical high in May. (8) Don’t count on Millennials to buy your house. (9) Buddy, can you spare $400 in an emergency?

Global Economy Dropping Like Lead?
(1) CRB raw industrials spot price index drops on escalating US-China trade war. (2) Another global growth recession, or worse? (3) Global forward revenues on uptrends. (4) Steel price down sharply as European auto production staggers in wake of new auto emissions standard. (5) Still expecting Chinese to cave. (6) Rail freight traffic stalling in China. (7) Six weeks from the longest US economic expansion on record. (8) Home, sweet home. (9) The Fed’s semi-existential crisis. (10) Fed Governor Brainard says Phillips curve is not flat but broken. (11) Brainard begs to differ with her colleagues on low inflation: It may not be transient. .

Yin and Yang
(1) A smaller earnings hook. (2) Not a good year for pigs. (3) The Chinese don’t want to be bullied. (4) China’s Orwellian state and Gulag. (5) Real retail sales growth falling as China turns into world’s biggest nursing home. (6) Xi needs a trade deal with US and Trump needs a deal with China. (7) Digital payments system disrupting financial system. (8) Lots of competition to deliver caffeine.

The Recession Question
(1) US economy dwarfs trade flows. (2) Higher tariffs on Chinese goods not likely to boost inflation much. (3) Iran launches a proxy war against the US and its Gulf allies. (4) No recession for earnings during Q1. (5) Expecting double-digit earnings growth in 2020. (6) Remarkably optimistic outlook for S&P 500 revenues. (7) Profit margin getting squeezed, but remains historically high. (8) The Fed is monitoring financial stability. (9) A few signs of stress in credit system, but no cracks.

M*A*S*H
(1) No laughing matter. (2) PTSD from the Trauma of 2008. (3) Latest panic attack (#63) about more than just China trade tensions. (4) Sabotage in the Persian Gulf. (5) Apple’s bad day in court. (6) Flattening yield curve flattens Financials. (7) VIX rising. (8) Too many bulls charged up by trade deal assurances. (9) Commodity prices take a hit. (10) Oil price slips despite attack on tankers. (11) The soybean story. (12) Round trip for lumber.

Trade War & Peace
(1) Miss Piggy, Roger Moore, and trade. (2) Tit for tat. (3) Will Chinese change their laws to protect US trade interests? (4) China selling in US almost four times more than US selling in China. (5) Trump’s tariffs aimed at moving manufacturing out of China rather than at raising US prices of Chinese imports. (6) Not much inflation showing up in US non-oil imports. (7) Weaker yuan offsetting some of the US tariff effect. (8) Our hawks vs their hawks. (9) The Year of the Swine Flu. (10) Other fronts in Trump’s trade war. (11) Movie review: “Tolkien” (+ +).

2020 Vision for Semis
(1) Investors look beyond the semi slump. (2) Hello 2020. (3) Who’s afraid of a trade war? (4) Tech invades real estate. (5) Marriott loving Home Sweet Home. (6) How to sell your home for cash in 24 hours. (7) The We Company makes going to work cool and fun. (8) Free coffee and beer for everyone. (9) Traditional landlords upping their game.

Slowing But Growing
(1) A global soft patch, or something worse? (2) Still counting on a “peace dividend” and on a global productivity boom. (3) Neither boom nor bust in April global PMIs. (4) No recession in commodity prices or in global forward revenues. (5) US transportation indicators may be slowing, or stalling at record highs. (6) Is the US trucking industry downshifting? (7) The Q1 earnings recession has been called off.

Productivity Rebound: Why Now?
(1) Geopolitical crises tend to create buying opportunities. (2) Disorderly world. (3) Iran is between Iraq and a hard place. (4) From community organizers to dealmakers. (5) Trump threatens more tariffs on China to close the trade deal. (6) If productivity is making a comeback, as we expect, potential output growth is higher and NAIRU is lower than CBO estimates. (7) Fed officials, focusing on “transient” disinflation story, may be missing secular one again. (8) Tight labor markets may be triggering faster productivity growth. (9) The “productivity-compensation gap” is a statistical mirage.

Productivity Is Making a Comeback!
(1) Another Powell gaffe, or just a market overreaction? (2) Still bullish on earnings, a China trade deal, and a rebound in productivity. (3) Word game: From “patient” to “transient.” (4) Powell says persistently low interest rates possible. (5) The pragmatic case for one or two rate hikes before Election Day 2020. (6) Powell says “transient.” We say “persistent.” (7) The “Amazon Effect.” (8) Guiding inflationary expectations. (9) Room to grow if productivity continues to rebound with enough slack in labor market. (10) Productivity growth is looking up.

FANGs’ Rivalry Heating Up
(1) FANGs eyeing each other’s turf. (2) Hey, when you’ve gotta grow, you’ve gotta grow. (3) FANGs’ rivalry hasn’t fazed investors much so far. (4) Collectively, FANGs make up a tenth of the S&P 500’s market cap. (5) Facebook’s next act: e-commerce and payments. (6) Amazon’s non-retail businesses—e.g., web services and advertising—growing faster than the core store. (7) Google elbows into video streaming à la Prime and Netflix. (8) Only Netflix is sticking to its knitting.

It’s a Slow World After All
(1) No boom, no bust. (2) An ideal scenario for staying home. (3) Commodity markets waiting for a peace dividend when Trump’s trade war ends with China. (4) Global revenues continue to rise slowly. (5) China dips, while Europe turns weaker. (6) Not enough Tiger cubs in Asia. (7) Q1 real GDP was an upside surprise. (8) Business capital spending remains solid. (9) Consumers coming out of winter hibernation. (10) Confidence among consumers younger than 35 years old is soaring. (11) Obituary for inflation makes the front cover. (12) The PCED inflation rate is back below Fed’s 2.0% target. (13) Setting the stage for lower-for-longer federal funds rate.

Abigail vs Scrooge McDuck
(1) Abigail’s complaint. (2) How much is too much? (3) The ultra-rich are different than the rest of us. (4) In 2016, the “1%” included 1.3 million taxpayers earning $500,000 or more. (5) Either round them all up, or make them pay more taxes. (6) Stiglitz’s complaint. (7) Have incomes stagnated for 90% of Americans since 1989? (8) A very flawed measure of income. (9) Using PCED rather than CPI eliminates a great deal of stagnation. (10) Households with singles have fewer mouths to feed than those with married couples and their children. (11) Lots of measures of income and consumption confirm that the standard of living is at a record high for many, if not most, Americans.

Sound of Silence
(1) The good old days are back for bonds. (2) Falling in love with bonds again? (3) Turning up the volume. (4) The bond yield’s two quirky components. (5) Oil greases the widely followed 10-year expected inflation yield spread. (6) US bond yields still tethered to overseas yields. (7) Bond yields driven by fertility rates? (8) Central banks stuck in a rut. (9) Flat yield curves predicting no change in monetary policies of the Fed, ECB, and BOJ. (10) The TIPS yield is unreal.

Health Care for Socialists
(1) Health care stocks sickened by “Medicare for All,” which investors fear is “traditional insurance for none.” (2) Single-payer health care is an old idea getting new legs. (3) Bernie’s Buddies: Lots of Dem POTUS candidates are for socialized medicine. (4) The disruptive impacts on insurers and other health care industries could be HUGE. (5) Two new health care technologies have disruptive potential as well: drug compounding and 3D joint printing.

Run, Bull, Run!
(1) Run, Forrest, run! (2) Earnings leading the charge to record highs. (3) The bears grumble that the Fed is feeding the bull. (4) Two charts that have been the downfall of the bears so far. (5) Our Boom-Bust Barometer at record high lending support to record high for stocks. (6) S&P 500 forward earnings is the comeback kid. (7) Fairly valued again. (8) Lots of black-and-blue PMIs during April in the US, Europe, and Japan.

Tale of Two Countries
(1) Bull market appears in two recent cover stories. Time to worry? (2) Bull/Bear Ratio staged V-shaped recovery since last Xmas. (3) There was growth in the winter, and there will be more of it in the spring. (4) Will Trump save China? (5) China is getting less bang per yuan for its fiscal and monetary stimulus. (6) OECD report says China has some homegrown, structural problems that need to be fixed. (7) Chinese trade data was weaker than widely perceived during Q1-2019. (8) Latest Chinese GDP and production stats were strong thanks to government stimulus. (9) Explosion in Chinese bank loans is cushioning the decline in economic growth with less effect.

Financials Going High Tech
(1) Bankers upbeat on economy. (2) Financials: From laggard to leader? (3) Nothing to fear but shadowy fintech upstarts. (4) Old bankers learning new tricks. (5) JayDee watching shadows. (6) A by-the-way comment on leveraged loans. (7) Spending big bucks on high tech. (8) Marcus and Siri getting hitched. (9) Drones are already on the job, and helped Parisian firefighters fight Notre Dame fire. (10) Look up in the sky: More industries using drones to cut costs and increase productivity.

Many Unhappy Returns?
(1) “Tax Return” is a non sequitur for more Americans this year. (2) Failure to increase withholding rate boosted take-home pay for many last year, reducing refunds this year. (3) Pleasant surprise for high-income earners. (4) Rising personal saving offsetting the stimulus from tax cuts. (5) Corporate tax rate falls to 13.2% on “kitchen-sink” transactions. (6) S&P 500 capital spending during 2018 back at 2014 record high. (7) Buybacks widely misunderstood, though tech companies did boost EPS last year with buybacks.

Hipsters and Oldsters
(1) Overweight replacement parts for knees and hips. (2) No shortage of seniors. (3) Health care equipment may be more popular than gym equipment for a while. (4) Medicare for all would be bad for the health of working stiffs. (5) The Age Wave continues to be disinflationary and bullish for bonds. (6) Are Millennials finally starting to buy homes? (7) Homebuilders and homeowners could get squeezed by dearth of demand for big homes. (8) Millennials want to live where homes are cheap, while Baby Boomers want to live where taxes are low.

The Fed Is Listening
(1) The Fed’s review of the Fed. (2) Open minds. (3) Despite renewed commitment to data dependence, FOMC folks can’t resist forecasting interest rates. (4) Clarida suggests Fed’s review is focusing on alternative ways to target inflation. (5) Trying to find something to do when the federal funds rate is at the effective lower bound. (6) Targeting the price level vs the inflation rate. (7) Inflation misses: Should bygones be bygones? (8) Bernanke and Yellen still matter.

Trouble Spots
(1) Manufacturing employment slipped in March—blip or inkling of trouble? (2) If Captains of Industry suffer, so do their supply-chain crews. (3) Are new cars getting too pricey in an Uber-enabled world? (4) GM and Ford both rerouting themselves operationally. (5) Drones finally deliver. (6) Alphabet-owned Wing beats Amazon to the skies.

Is the Earnings Recession Over?
(1) Stock market looks forward, not backward. (2) Green shoots popping up in revenues and earnings estimates. (3) S&P 500 forward earnings may be starting to bottom. (4) Consensus Q1 earnings estimate is down y/y, but actual results could be up slightly thanks to the “hook.” (5) Lots of angst about income inequality despite record readings for labor market indicators. (6) Income inequality seems to be worst during boom times. (7) Still more job openings than jobless workers. (8) Real hourly wage at record high. (9) The income stagnation myth is based on one flawed data series. (10) Consumption equality: We all eat about the same every day.

Global Growth Dearth
(1) Everybody is easing, so why is the global economy so weak? (2) Still expecting a peace dividend once Trump wins his trade wars. (3) The 1990s all over again with a few differences. (4) There are signs of life in the commodity pits. (5) Global PMIs are mixed. (6) OECD leading indicators are awful. But are they accurate? (7) Is Germany a big canary? (8) Good and bad news for fans of Phillips curve tradeoff. (9) Wages rising fastest in industries that can’t pass costs on into prices.

Topical Topics
(1) Reviving our Topical Studies. (2) More thoughts on the yield curve. (3) Yield-Curve Rules for the Fed’s money-meisters. (4) The Fed pauses just as suggested by Rule #2. (5) More upside for stocks if Fed pause averts a (meaningful) yield-curve inversion. (6) Labor market is golden for Goldilocks. (7) Running out of workers? Not yet. (8) Wages still rising ahead of price inflation. (9) Rooting for a rebound in productivity. (10) Movie review: “The Highwaymen” (+).

Health Care’s Maladies
(1) From best to worst. (2) Trump attacks Obamacare and will fix it in 2021, maybe. (3) Drug pricing has become a political piñata. (4) Taking out some benefits from pharma-benefits managers. (5) AI will start suggesting you have fries with your order based on your license plate. (6) AI is micromanaging inventories. (7) Unlike Google, AI can do evil. (8) Mark Cuban keeps a book on AI for dummies next to his water closet.

Room with a View
(1) A CEO summit. (2) Avoiding cabin fever. (3) Anxiety about an imminent recession turns to concerns about high valuations. (4) S&P 500 revenues and earnings growth rates may be starting to bottom. (5) What about the earnings recession? (6) Flying to record highs with the Blue Angels. (7) Sentiment on outlook for China and the global economy improving. (8) What’s the matter with Germany? (9) Green regulations cause German auto sales to skid.

Another ‘Eureka!’ Moment on Buybacks
(1) Why does a senator from Wisconsin want to ban buybacks? (2) The Baldwin report is a fundamentally flawed analysis of corporate finance. (3) Are corporate executives looters? (4) We calculate that since 2011, S&P 500 companies repurchased 72 billion shares. So why is share count down only 22 billion? (5) Roughly 2/3 of buybacks may be offsetting share dilution from employee stock plans. (6) TCJA reduced incentive to pay employees with stock. (7) Meet the intellectual godfather behind the progressive movement to limit or ban buybacks.

Bonds Are from Venus, Stocks Are from Mars
(1) Bond yields showing signs of gravitational pull, while stock prices are on verge of escape velocity. (2) Mixed message from bond market. (3) Latest relief rally led by cyclical stocks (again). (4) Are stocks discounting a “peace dividend?” We think so. (5) The next recession could start on Election Day 2020, or not. (6) Q1 seasonality may still be an issue. (7) Commodity prices set for lift-off, maybe. (8) Forward earnings starting to look skyward. (9) MMT combines fiscal and monetary policies to take care of old people. (10) Is the bond market looking forward to AOC’s greener pastures with fewer humans? (11) Movie review: “Hotel Mumbai” (+ +).

FANG Fight
(1) More pie or just more whipped cream from Apple? (2) Do consumers value their privacy? (3) How much content is too much content even at $9.99/month? (4) Apple’s fan base: 1.4 billion is a big number. (5) Battle of the entertainment and media disruptors. (6) Lots of digital players want to play with our wallets.

Tossing a Curveball
(1) A hedged warning about rising recession risk in updated Fed study. (2) Recession risk up from 14% last summer to 50% now. (3) Then again, maybe the yield curve is forecasting monetary policy more than anything else. (4) Credit crunches cause recessions, not inverted yield curves! (5) A false positive signal, again? (6) Guess what the yield curve is predicting the Fed will do next: Nothing! (7) Buffett likes companies that buy back their shares. (8) We agree, as long as they don’t offset that with employee stock compensation.

The New Abnormal & the 4Ds
(1) Lots of global angst. (2) The 4Ds (Demography, Debt, Disruption, and Deflation) all weighing on global growth. (3) Industry analysts haven’t gotten the recession memo. (4) Global trade indicators still on uptrends. (5) Powell is right about the global economy. (6) Blame China for Europe’s weakness, or Uber? (7) Japan is in a soft patch. (8) In US, trucks and trains are cruising along just fine, and existing homes are selling well again. (9) The services sector is also fine in the US, and overseas too.

Sense of Humor
(1) The yield inversion show-and-tell. (2) A funny thing happened on the way to the next recession. (3) Lots of good material for Seinfeld. (4) Two-ring circus under the bond tent. (5) Trump is half right. (6) Meet Steve Moore, a fan of Abbott & Costello. (7) Comparing the yield curve to the business, monetary, and stock-market cycles. (8) Flat world, flat yield curve. (9) Fed study on yield curve yields less fear about a recession. (10) The secrets behind Powell’s pivot. (11) Movie review: “The Mustang (+ +).

Disrupting the Disruptors
(1) Internet pioneers circling the wagons. (2) Arrows, barbs, tar, and feathers. (3) Is sharing data criminal? (4) EU slaps Google with another big speeding ticket. (5) Horror in New Zealand. (6) Trust-busters on the warpath. (7) Chinese offering US semiconductor companies a raw deal. (8) Hybrids may be the next fashion statement in computing.

Dodging an Earnings Recession?
(1) 2018: A good year for earnings, and bad one for stocks. (2) 2019: So far so good for stocks despite weak earnings. (3) Q2 earnings growth still (barely) positive, while Q1 likely to be down slightly. (4) Weekly data on forward revenues, earnings, and margins turning more upbeat for comparable quarterly data—maybe. (5) Joe explains growth vs value styles. (6) Melissa explains how Baby Boomers are weighing on one popular measure of wage inflation.

G-Star Astrology
(1) Wish upon an r-star and g-star. (2) Ranting about Fed’s reliance on astrology. (3) Business output outpacing real GDP by a full percentage point. (4) More potential for growth if labor shortages stimulate labor-saving innovations. (5) Fed’s pause may be justified even if economic growth picks up over the rest of the year. (6) Not much cost-push inflation from labor markets. (7) Pensions are underfunded, especially government-sponsored ones. (8) Lots more millionaires hiding in public sector. (9) Life is exceptionally good if you can retire at 50 and live until 90.

Bond Yields: Failure To Launch
(1) Lots of bonds. (2) Predicting the bond market is more about global inflation and monetary policies than about supply and demand. (3) Bearish bond gurus wrong so far. (4) Demography, debt, and deflation weighing on global growth, and keeping a lid on bond yields. (5) A world of hurt. (6) Yield curve spread signaling recession, while credit yield spreads sending all-clear message. (7) Fed data show big drop in US direct investment abroad led by plunge in reinvested earnings. (8) Are Trump’s “America First” policies working?

Getting Energized
(1) The Fed’s cornucopia of data. (2) US direct investment abroad turns negative in reaction to Trump’s trade policies. (3) Last year, foreigners were (1) Forecasting oil prices gets slippery when the biggest users and producers shift. (2) As autos use less oil, plastics use more. (3) There’s a new king of production. (4) Energy sector’s 2019 earnings expected to tumble. (5) Tesla holds its lead in the electric car race. (6) But EV competitors have the pedal to the metal.

Disconnecting the Dots
(1) Don’t miss seeing the data for the dots, warns Powell. (2) Defining “normal,” for the balance sheet at least. (3) The new normal fed funds rate remains nebulous. (4) The pause that refreshes (markets). (5) Did the bull make it to 10? (6) The past decade has favored Growth over Value.

Following the Money
(1) The Fed’s cornucopia of data. (2) US direct investment abroad turns negative in reaction to Trump’s trade policies. (3) Last year, foreigners were sellers of US stocks and corporate bonds. They bought some Treasuries. (4) Bears have more corporate debt to be bearish about. (5) Leveraged loans at record high. (6) Lots of private equity available to purchase distressed assets. (7) Supply-and-demand credit analysis not very rewarding for predicting bond yield. (8) The truth about households.

Peace & Productivity Dividends Ahead?
(1) Bad vs good data. (2) Rules for forecasters. (3) Draghi’s new mantra. (4) Remember Eurosclerosis? It’s back. (5) All we are saying is give peace a chance. (6) How the moon impacts Chinese trade. (7) Don’t put much weight on latest payroll stat. (8) Upward revisions to payrolls matter. (9) DC shutdown boosted January’s employment and depressed February’s number. (10) Blaming the weather too. (11) Earned Income Proxy at record high. (12) Tightening labor market could produce productivity dividend.

Getting Loopy
(1) Slicing and dicing the S&P 500 sectors. (2) Last year’s tax cut boosted profit margins of some sectors more than others. (3) Winners emerging from Retail Apocalypse. (4) Shrinking can make a store stronger. (5) Going loopy over hyperloops.

Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow
(1) S&P 500 revenues at new record high. (2) The revenues growth cycle is turning down. (3) S&P 500 earnings and profit margin dip from recent record highs. (4) The tax cut was a big earnings booster last year. (5) The current “earnings recession” reflects last year’s tax cut rather than this year’s weakness. (6) Weekly market fundamental indicators looking toppy after big run-up. (7) Shaving our EPS forecasts. (8) Record-high dividends.

Will There Be a Peace Dividend?
(1) Another bout of irrational exuberance? (2) Will there be a peace dividend after trade war ends? (3) Stocks rally despite recession-like readings for M-PMIs in China and Europe. (4) Negative economic surprises. (5) Can old age kill a bull market and an economic expansion? (6) Joe devised an alternative to S&P 500 divisor. (7) Joe’s share count confirms that buybacks haven’t boosted earnings per share by much. (8) Drilling down to the sectors’ share counts. (9) Melissa reports that TCJA may reduce stock compensation.

The Truth About Buybacks
(1) Frustrated bears. (2) More recessionary indicators. (3) Chauncey Gardiner predicts: “There will be growth in the spring.” (4) Industry analysts on (1) Older, but wiser. (2) A simple model of the bull market driven by share buybacks. (3) Why aren’t earnings per share growing much faster than aggregate earnings? (4) Goldman says corporations will continue to be biggest buyers of stocks. (5) Contrary to popular belief, few buybacks benefit shareholders. (6) Buybacks are mostly offsetting the dilution resulting from stock grants. (7) Three measures of shares outstanding down only modestly during current bull market. (8) Dividend payouts are the only true cash return to investors and remain around 50% of after-tax profits. (9) Fed’s data on buybacks widely misinterpreted. (10) Progressive politicians should leave buybacks alone. (11) Movie review: “Free Solo” (+ + +).

Intrusive Disruptive Technology
(1) Holding onto gains. (2) Hot cyclicals. (3) Waiving a deadline. (4) Downturn in interest rates helps too. (5) About Facebook. (6) Our smart devices are spying on us. (7) Smile for the cameras. (8) Alexa feels your pain. (9) Your DNA can be easily traced. (10) Governments’ Big Brothers have our numbers.

Fed Heads Galore
(1) Frustrated bears. (2) More recessionary indicators. (3) Chauncey Gardiner predicts: “There will be growth in the spring.” (4) Industry analysts on verge of calling an earnings recession for H1-2019, yet they are turning more upbeat on 2020. (5) A sunnier disposition for consumers. (6) A funny thing happened on the way to the forum. (7) Fed officials pontificate on Fed’s balance sheet and inflation targeting.

From MOU to MAMU?
(1) Extending the deadline. (2) Open issues include how to enforce a deal. (3) Trump has a tiff with Lighthizer. (4) Both Xi and Trump need a deal. (5) Once again, “it’s the economy, stupid.” (6) Diverging labor markets: Strong in US, weak in China. (7) The Cheerleader-in-Chief: Trump likes meltups more than meltdowns in the stock market. (8) Global stock and commodity markets discounting a trade deal and better global growth. (9) The forex and bond markets are sitting on the fence. (10) No recession in credit yield spreads.

Stocks Go from Doom to Vroom!
(1) Birthday bull. (2) Lots of corrections followed by lots of relief rallies. (3) V-shaped rebound. (4) In the spring, there should be more growth. (5) Cap on SALT could weigh on economy. (6) Another reason why Millennials would rather rent than own a home. (7) Explaining the plunge in existing home sales. (8) More weakness than strength in latest batch of economic indicators. (9) Another record high in trucking index. (10) FOMC coop now full of doves.

Demography Goes Mainstream
(1) More concern about the extinction prediction. (2) The rest of the world is catching up to Japan’s birth dearth problem. (3) A new book predicts an “empty planet.” (So it should be easier to make a reservation at good restaurants.) (4) Hungary running out of goulash eaters. (5) It’s official: China’s maternity wards are emptying out as its nursing homes fill up. (6) Chinese producing more debt, fewer babies. (7) Stimulating baby-making with incentives in Russia. (8) Round up the usual suspects: US DOJ has a long rap sheet on Chinese spies.

In Praise of Folly: Stopping Stock Buybacks
(1) Mencken, Reagan & Emanuel on government. (2) Senators Schumer and Sanders are here to help. (3) Buybacks were once banned. Should they be limited now? (4) Unintended consequences of Clinton’s million-dollar cap for exec pay. (5) S&P data suggest aim of buybacks is to reduce dilution from stock compensation rather than to boost earnings per share! (6) Almost 100% of profits used for buybacks and dividends, leaving “only” depreciation allowance to fund plenty of capex. (7) Labor market data belie notion that real incomes and wages have been stagnating for most households and workers. (8) The income inequality debate. (9) Workers of America, buy stocks in your 401(k)s and IRAs!

Recharging Bull
(1) Rational buying follows irrational selloff. (2) V-shaped rebound in stock prices. (3) Bull will get big prize in early March. (4) New record high? Toga! Toga! Toga! (5) Flash recession? (6) Temps and truckers remain upbeat. (7) Earnings recessions aren’t always bearish. (8) Who’s to blame for Panic Attack #62? (9) Naming names: The falsely and justly accused. (10) Quiet time ahead for Fed’s QT? (11) Movie review: “Capernaum” (+ + +).

Techlash
(1) 2015 all over again? (2) 2018 was a banner year for earnings and impossible to beat this year. (3) Earnings growth recession possible this year. (4) So why are stock prices rallying when everyone is cutting earnings estimates? (5) Those forecasting an earnings recession are also predicting test of Xmas Eve low. (6) All we are saying is: Give 3100 a chance, again. (7) Trump’s tax cut was worth $20 per share. (8) Tech companies have a privacy issue. (9) Internet Bill of Rights. (10) Don’t get Zucked! (11) Information Fiduciaries. (12) Will 5G fry our brains?

A Passage to India
(1) EM stock prices rebounding from last year’s rout. (2) Fed calls the shots for EM stocks, bonds, and currencies. (3) US stocks have significantly outperformed the rest of the world during the current bull market. (4) The rest of the world has more homegrown problems than does the US. (5) After five-year run, India’s Modi is facing a spring election. (6) India’s farmers and poor haven’t fared well under Modi. (7) India has lots of mouths to feed, yet food prices are falling. (8) Rigging GDP growth and the jobless rate. (9) The central bank is easing just in time for elections.

One & Done? Up or Down?
(1) An old adage. (2) Yellen is a classic “two-handed economist.” (3) 2016: Déjà vu all over again. (4) 2-year Treasury divines the Fed’s future moves. (5) Flat yield curve is in none-and-done camp. (6) No recession in credit-quality yield spreads. (7) Will the buck stop here? (8) ECB and BOJ remain much more dovish than Fed. (9) Oil prices remarkably firm given gushing US oil wells. (10) EMs get a boost from Fed pause. (11) A deal with China could provide a short-term boost to Go Global investment strategy.

Donald Trump & Gwyneth Paltrow
(1) Can the US economy decouple from China and Europe? (2) January’s payroll gain was boosted by government shutdown. (3) No sign of recession in US employment indicators. (4) Will tighter lending standards derail US expansion? (5) China needs a trade deal with US. (6) Trump wants supply chains to leave China. (7) More disintegration than integration in EU. (8) Europe on the edge of a recession. (9) Raise taxes on the wealthy, and they will leave. (10) Movie review: “The Invisibles” (+ + +).

Spy Games
(1) CEOs tacitly support Trump’s calling out China on trade and IP. (2) Case studies of how China steals IP. (3) Swiping Tappy from T-Mobile. (4) Undercover hackers uncovered. (5) Planting spies in US companies. (6) Recruiting Chinese students studying abroad. (7) Communication Services companies on spending spree for streamable content.

Modern Monetary Theory
(1) Why are bond yields so subdued? (2) Modern Monetary Theory is the flavor of the day. (3) Kelton says federal deficits don’t matter until they matter to inflation. (4) Politicians, naturally, love MMT. (5) Link between deficits and inflation isn’t what it once was. (6) Other than Starbuck’s ex-CEO, does anyone hate deficits anymore? (7) Taking a walk on the supply side. (8) The CBO is so old school.

Revenues: Good & Bad News
(1) Good news for revenues in January’s M-PMI. (2) New orders index rebounded last month, while new factory orders continued to grow in November. (3) Hard to match last year’s revenues growth. (4) Weak global economic indicators weighing on outlook for S&P 500 revenues growth. (5) Global M-PMI falling. (6) Global leading indicators increasingly downbeat, especially for Europe and China. (7) Copper starting to shine. (8) Dollar remains a headwind for revenues growth.

Recession: Gone in a Flash
(1) Fed goes from alarmingly hawkish to remarkably dovish. (2) Is the stock market looking at 2020 earnings? (3) Valuation has been on a rollercoaster. (4) Rounding up more suspects for 2018’s year-end crash. (5) Self-induced selloff. (6) Flash crashes create buying opportunities. (7) Perma-bears waiting for Godot. (8) No recession in employment, wages, and M-PMI. (9) Kudlow for Fed governor! (10) Fed moving to the supply side? (11) Powell is flexible and patient after all. (12) Movie review: “They Shall Not Grow Old.” (+ + +).

Technology Today & Tomorrow
(1) S&P 500 no longer predicting a recession. (2) Consumer expectations are depressed, but that’s likely to be temporary. (3) Fed back on right track for bulls. (4) Tech companies may be facing saturated markets for smartphones and cloud servers, and a China slowdown. (5) Nevertheless, the future remains bright for tech hardware and software. (6) Bloomberg’s must-see video on China’s great leap into the future. (7) China is becoming a Digital Orwellian State (DOS).

The Global Birth Dearth
(1) Household count increases as households last longer. (2) More owner-occupied households led by more of those 65 years of age and older. (3) Demographic forces netting out, as some may be causing a shortage, others a glut, of housing inventory. (4) More Millennial women are working and having fewer babies. (5) The baby bust may be weighing on global growth. (6) A very skewed male/female ratio in China. (7) The case for having fewer children. (8) Productivity is the only good response to low fertility.

On the Margin
(1) Puzzle: Why are analysts cutting their earnings estimates but not their revenues estimates? (2) Lots of good reasons why profit margins might be getting squeezed. (3) Analysts are natural-born optimists. (4) S&P 500 forward revenues at record high, while forward earnings are sliding from recent record high. (5) Wage version of Phillips curve making a comeback finally. (6) Pricing power isn’t what it used to be back in the 1970s and 1980s. (7) Corporate managements took an oath after “Trauma of 2008” to keep their profit margins high. (8) Forward profit margins looking toppy for the S&P 500 sectors. (9) Tech’s profit margin stands out because it is outstanding.

The Next Recession
(1) The boom-bust cycle. (2) Might fear of a recession cause a recession? (3) Bad news sells newspapers. (4) WSJ article suggests QT will soon be off autopilot. (5) Both US and China need to end trade war. (6) Stock market climbing walls. (7) The next recession could start November 4, 2020. (8) Leading indicators index stalls, while jobless claims remain upbeat. (9) Regional Fed surveys remained downbeat in January, but Markit M-PMI was happier. (10) Europe has a bunch of woes weighing on economy. (11) Movie review: “Serenity” (+).

Analysts Cutting Earnings Estimates
(1) Analysts scrambling to cut 2019 earnings estimates, but not doing so for revenues. (2) IMF shaves world GDP growth, led by Europe, with no change for US and China. (3) Q1-Q3 consensus earnings growth down to low single digits. (4) Valuation multiples may have more upside in a world of slow growth with low inflation and interest rates. (5) Two downbeat, and one upbeat, earnings conference calls. (6) Preparing for a recession reduces likelihood it will happen. (7) Will batteries be the next New, New Thing?

The Latest Word from the Fed
(1) China has too much debt producing too much excess capacity. (2) One child to support two parents. (3) “Ghost” trains, airports, and highways? (4) Slowing growth despite record bank loan expansion. (5) Lowest number of births since 1961. (6) Capital outflows increasing again. (7) US frackers are moving US to oil independence. (8) “Patient” is the new word at the Fed, replacing “gradual.” (9) FOMC rotation gives the vote to more patient members.

Happy New Year!
(1) The sixth correction. (2) Trump calibrates China trade talk updates to boost stock prices. (3) Fed officials all stressing “patience” and “flexibility.” (4) Reduced earnings estimates are easier to beat. (5) Highly correlated: Oil price goes up, dollar goes down, EM stock prices go up. (6) Risk-on making a big comeback for stocks and credit. (7) 2016 all over again? (8) Government shutdown impacting economic data availability. (9) Available data showing growing economy. (10) Data-dependent Fed has enough to monitor economy. (11) Beige Book is colorful. (12) Movie review: “Stan & Ollie” (+ +).

Is the Bear Market Over?
(1) 1987 all over again? (2) Six S&P 500 sectors have rebounded from bear-market territory. (3) Easing does it for Fed, ECB, and PBOC. (4) Financials making a comeback. (5) Despite flat yield curve, interest margin remains high. (6) Commercial and industrial loans are growing. (7) Less mortgage lending. (8) Lower tax rate and more buybacks. (9) Financials are cheap. (10) US and China race for AI dominance. (11) Big Brother is watching. (12) Chinese use AI to direct traffic and check into hotels.

European Tour
(1) Lots of woes in Eurozone. (2) Rapidly decelerating real GDP growth. (3) Underperforming stocks. (4) ECB drops QE and starts looking for other easing tools. (5) Bad batch of leading indicators, sentiment readings, and industrial production. (6) Germany teetering on the edge of recession as auto sales weaken. (7) Not enough Rhine water. (8) Social unrest in France weighing on economy. (9) Hard or soft Brexit? (10) Some good news out of Europe. (11) Draghi sees need for more easy money.

Liquidity: Plenty or Not Enough?
(1) An ugly scenario much loved by the bears. (2) From QE to QT. (3) Is it all about central bank liquidity? (4) Is the ebb and flow of liquidity like looking in the rear-view mirror? (5) International reserves aren’t growing. (6) Other measures of liquidity showing lots of personal saving, lots of buybacks and dividends, and lots of bank loans. (7) Commercial banks buying Treasuries. (8) 2016: Déjà vu all over again? (9) Global economic indicators are mixed, but mostly weak. (10) Movie review: “Mary Queen of Scots” (+).

Lesson Learned in 2018
(1) A show of hands in Charlotte. (2) Bull-Bear Ratio so low it’s bullish. (3) Are the bears satisfied, or do they want more? (4) 1987: Déjà vu all over again. (5) No recession in the wings. (6) Volatility confirms that stocks should be held for the long run rather than traded in the short run. (7) Earnings growth this year weighed down by unbeatable earnings growth last year. (8) Industry analysts lowering their earnings growth rates for this year, though revenues growth expectations firming. (9) Profit margins have peaked. (10) Valuation multiples are cheap. (11) Movie: “On the Basis of Sex” (+ +).

5G or Not 5G?
(1) The next New, New Thing? (2) 4G is the Old, Old Thing for Apple and Samsung. (3) Will 5G stay in Vegas? (4) Bulls vs. bears on 5G. (5) The Internet of Things can use a faster wireless network with more capacity for more things. (6) IBM showing off its latest quantum computer at CES. (7) Neither 5G nor quantum computing is ready for prime time. (8) Could an amateur scientist featured on “60 Minutes” possibly have the next New, New Thing in energy?

The Dark Side of the Moon
(1) China’s lunar landing to collect moon’s fairy dust. (2) China’s Xi has problems back on Earth. (3) Wilbur Ross disagrees with Tim Cook. (4) China’s M-PMIs are below 50.0. (5) China’s real retail sales growth slowing. (6) Getting harder to sell autos and apartments in China. (7) Trump and Ross believe China needs a deal badly. (8) The talks are going “well.” (9) The end of the ceasefire is approaching. (10) PBOC cutting reserve requirements.

Deflationary Demographic Developments
(1) Humans on a demographic path to self-extinction. (2) Crowded nursing homes. Empty maternity wards. (3) China will soon be world’s largest nursing home. (4) Japan is leading the way with more deaths than births. (5) China’s misguided one-child policy now turning into a demographic nightmare. (6) Births fall in US to lowest since 1979. (7) Too many minimalists? (8) Prices-paid indexes taking a dive along with oil prices. (9) Q4 earnings season starting.

Patient Powell’s Put
(1) No recession in GDPNow model. (2) Credit market indicators say Fed is done tightening. (3) There was a December “flash recession” in Fed district surveys, led by drop in new orders. (4) A few leading indicators flashing yellow. (5) Labor market still booming. (6) Trucking indicators still barreling along. (7) Powell turns from hawk to dove. (8) Pressing the pause button. (9) Fed going from “gradual” to “flexible.” (10) The Dow Vigilantes have gotten the Powell Put for now. (11) Powell concedes that financial markets matter. (12) Movie review: “Vice” (-).