December 14 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Drugs, China & AI
The S&P 500 sector with the brightest 2024 earnings growth outlook is none other than Health Care, with a share price index that’s a deep underperformer this year, Jackie reports. One of its component industries accounts for much of both this year’s stock price pain and next year’s projected earnings gains—pharmaceuticals. Three drug makers in particular appear bound for standout earnings next year. … Also: China’s government is not doing what it takes to overcome its formidable economic challenges. … And in today’s Disruptive Technologies segment: one tech veteran’s advice for working with AI, warts and all.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 11.
Markets
Stocks are soaring. How can investors take advantage? | C
The Dow Jones Industrial Average Is So Back. Here Are the Stocks Sending It to New Highs. | W
Wall Street Traders Go All-In on Great Monetary Pivot of 2024 | B
JPMorgan Strategist Aronov Sees Big Credit ‘Reckoning’ as High Rates Bite | B
U.S. Treasury yields: investors digest Fed rate outlook | C
Central banks
World Central Banks Signal Victory Over Inflation Is in Sight | W
Jerome Powell Makes His Inflation Pivot | W
Fed rarely cuts rates at a 'measured pace' | R
ECB Holds Rates With Inflation Sinking But Hastens Bond Exit | B
BOE Holds Rates With Warning of a ‘Way to Go’ on Inflation | B
US
US economy still resilient as retail sales beat expectations, layoffs stay low | R
Retail sales rose 0.3% in November vs. expectations for a decline | C
Strong Holiday Spending Adds to Signs U.S. May Beat Inflation Without Downturn | W
Americans Are Spending on the Holidays After All | W
US II
Mortgage Rates Fall Below 7%, Giving Some Relief for US Housing Market | B
What Fed Rate Cuts Mean for Home Buyers in 2024 | W
Why Doesn’t Gen Z Want to Be All It Can Be? | W
Congress passes $886 billion defense policy bill, Biden to sign into law | C
China
China is still the top dog in commodities, but its bark is changing | R
Geopolitics & trade
A World in Disarray? A Longtime Diplomat Says It’s Worse Than That | W
European Union leaders agree to open membership talks with Ukraine | C
New attack on Red Sea cargo ship as U.S. proposes naval coalition | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: Southwest CEO: Christmas meltdown ‘will never happen again’ | C
Autos: GM's Cruise laying off 900, or 24% of its workforce: Read the memo | C
December 13 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Earnings: Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow
S&P 500 companies collectively outperformed industry analysts’ Q3 expectations, posting record-high revenues and earnings per share. The profit margin was the highest in four quarters, suggesting that the cost-push inflation pressures that had weighed on margins are easing. … Analysts’ consensus estimates for 2024 and 2025 suggest accelerating growth for both revenues and earnings and rising profit margins. … The earnings outlook together with our projected valuation ranges result in our price targets for the S&P 500 of 4600 by the end of this year, 5400 by the end of next, and 6000 by year-end 2025.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 11.
Markets
S&P 500 Rises to Highest Level Since January 2022 | W
Stock Buybacks Are Getting Aggressive | W
Stock Investors Unprepared for Shocks, Wells Fargo’s Chris Harvey Warns | B
U.S. crude oil falls 4% as traders worry inflation affects demand | C
Inflation Expectations Cool as Oil Tumbles Ahead of Fed Decision | B
China Turns the Tables on Wall Street | W
Central banks
Here's everything the Fed is expected to do Wednesday | C
Fed to start cutting rates midyear in 2024 with high chance of soft landing, CNBC Fed survey finds
Traders Trim Bets on 2024 Fed-Rate Cuts After Inflation Report | B
Why Fed rate hikes take so long to affect the economy | C
The Fed Doesn’t Need to Cut. Financial Conditions Are Already Loosening. | Manhattan Institute
Fed Inflation Fight Enters Last Leg Without ‘Pain’ It Feared | B
US
Yellen Says U.S. Economy on Path to Soft Landing | W
Inflation Edges Lower, but Still Too High for the Fed | W
Stubbornly high rental costs lift US consumer inflation in November | R
CPI inflation report November 2023 | C
Here's the inflation breakdown for November 2023 — in one chart | C
Yes, Trump can win the 2024 election. Here are four reasons why | R
Europe
Europe's top economies slash carbon intensity of electricity | R
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. Companies Are Finding It Hard to Avoid China | W
United Nations demands humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Tesla to Recall More Than Two Million Vehicles Over Autopilot Safety Concerns | W
Media: Netflix Releases Full Viewership Data for First Time | W
Pharma: Pfizer gets OK for $43-billion Seagen deal after donating cancer drug rights | R
Pharma: Pfizer Warns 2024 Revenue Could Fall, Weighed Down by Soft Demand for Covid Products | W
Retail: The retail theft problem has been greatly exaggerated | Creditnews
Corporate finance
Bankrupt trucking co Yellow approved for $1.88 bln real estate sale | R
Climate
New COP28 Draft Demands Swifter Fossil Fuel Transition | B
President Biden just pledged to shut down 60% of America's electric power | P
Artificial Intelligence
OpenAI nonprofit arm $45,000 in 2022 revenue, company worth billions | C
Why creating an international body for AI is a bad idea | FO
Beyond markets
BlackRock, Other Investment Firms Next Target in House ESG Probe | B
December 12 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Global Economy Still In A Funk
Recent global indicators show economic growth at a crawl, commodity prices remaining weak, and inflation moderating. Weighing on the pace of growth have been recessions in China and Europe. China’s economic malaise is secular in nature and likely to last for a while given the challenges facing that country. But we expect the ECB to ease in the spring as inflation moderates, and the Eurozone’s shallow recession to lift. US economic growth has been slowing from Q3’s rapid pace, but a comeback in productivity growth could recharge it. … We continue to advise overweighting US stocks in global equity portfolios.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 11.
Markets
Stocks Edge Higher Ahead of Inflation Data, Fed Meeting | W
Wall Street closes at fresh 2023 highs as inflation data, Fed eyed | R
When Bond Yields Dropped, the Everything Rally Kicked Off | W
Thermal coal prices diverge as Japan, South Korea buy more, China, India less | R
Central banks
Rate cuts ahead? Fed, ECB and other central banks set for pivotal week | C
The Fed’s higher-for-longer strategy on interest rates is slowly crumbling | NN
If You Fight Inflation With Fed Rate Hikes, You Don’t Fight Inflation | FO
US
How the Fed’s Rate Hikes Broke Home Buying, in Six Charts | W
Opinion | If Homelessness Is About a Lack of Housing, This Could Be an Answer | N
Economy’s Soft Landing Comes Into View as Job Growth Slowly Descends | W
U.S. Jobs Market Cools Again, Conference Board Employment Trends Index Shows | W
China
China's control-freak leader is dragging down its economy. | P
Geopolitics & trade
Will an age of war replace our era of booming prosperity? | The Hill
Hamas Took More Than 200 Hostages From Israel. Here’s What We Know. | W
Industries & companies
Financials: JPMorgan begins First Republic makeover as it opens more branches | R
Logistics: Amazon drone delivery executive who oversaw FAA relations departs | C
Manufacturing: Hasbro Layoffs: Toy Company to Cut Nearly 20% of Workforce | W
Tech: New York Joins IBM, Micron in $10 Billion Chip Research Complex | W
Climate
New COP28 draft text does not mention phase out of fossil fuels | R
Corporate finance
Occidental Petroleum to expand Permian ops with $12 billion deal for CrownRock | R
Artificial Intelligence
Microsoft partners with labor group to quell concerns AI taking jobs | C
Beyond markets
More than 15% of teens on YouTube or TikTok almost constantly | C
House panel subpoenas Vanguard, Arjuna in ESG 'collusion' probe | C
December 11 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Hard Luck For Hard Landers
The economy has proven resilient, defying all the reasons it shouldn’t be, to which diehard hard landers still cling. We expect that it will remain resilient and that inflation will continue to fall to the Fed’s target (a.k.a. “immaculate disinflation”). In this scenario, the Fed won’t be rushing to ease and won’t ease by much. The Fed’s policy stance is perhaps better cast as “normalizing” than tightening that requires undoing. … Labor market supply and demand are coming into better balance, as the Fed would like, though November employment data attest to the labor market’s continued strength. … Also: What to make of the fact that GDI is weaker than GDP. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Reptile” (+).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 4.
Markets
A New Era of Income Investing Is Turning Boomers Into Bond Buyers | W
Why Treasury Auctions Have Wall Street on Edge | W
Central banks
Higher Interest Rates Are Here to Stay. What It Means for the Economy. | BR
Jerome Powell’s Inflation Fight Is Succeeding, Raising Questions About Rate Cuts | W
US
Inflation expectations plunge in closely watched University of Michigan survey | C
Here’s Where Prices Are Actually Coming Down | W
Runway getting clearer, U.S. economy still not assured of soft landing | C
Economy’s Soft Landing Comes Into View as Job Growth Slowly Descends | W
Opinion | The Progressive Case for Bidenomics | N
The Megafactories Are Coming. Now the Hustle Is On to Find Workers | W
Europe
Europe’s technology startups are doing just fine | E
Europe, a laggard in AI, seizes the lead in its regulation | E
China
Will China leave behind its economic woes in 2024? | E
Japan
Will a fiscal mess thwart Japan’s nascent economic growth? | E
Industries & companies
Autos: Auto Loan Rejections at Record High — How to Up the Odds of Approval | C
Banks: A Bank Safety ‘Endgame’ Is Coming. Who Wins and Loses. | BR
Health Care: Buy This Hospital Stock. It’s Making the Best of a Bad Situation. | BR
Geopolitics & trade
China and the EU risk a trade war | E
Israel and Palestine: How peace is possible | E
Europe Swears Off Russian Gas. The Unexpected Price. | BR
Zelenskyy will meet Biden at the White House amid a stepped-up push for Congress to approve more aid | C
Vladimir Putin is running Russia’s economy dangerously hot | E
Corporate finance
Cigna abandons pursuit of Humana, plans $10 billion share buyback | R
Investor Group Launches $5.8 Billion Buyout Bid for Macy’s | W
Sigma Healthcare Agrees to $5.79 Billion Merger With Pharmacy Chain | W
Climate
Disturbing UN report calls on Americans to reduce meat consumption. But that’s just the beginning of UN’s radi | FO
What to watch at COP28 on Monday | R
The Chinese and American Climate Negotiators Pushing for a Deal | W
Artificial Intelligence
Artificial: The OpenAI Story | W
Beyond markets
What bankrupt trucker Yellow's billion-dollar battle means to economy | C
Covid-19 was a disaster for the world’s schoolchildren | E
December 08 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Onshoring, Acquisitions & Octopus
Federal incentives promoting the onshoring of manufacturing plants have certainly hit their mark in Arizona and New York. Both states are sprouting new regional semiconductor manufacturing ecosystems, Jackie reports, dramatically boosting local economic development. … Also: Financial firms with investment banking operations report a pickup in M&A, a trend that should only accelerate when the interest-rate environment stabilizes. … And our Disruptive Technologies focus today is on Octopus Energy, a British company with an innovative business model that rewards green electricity consumption.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 4.
Markets
Wall Street touches four-month high after jobs data | R
U.S. Treasury yields: investors look to U.S. jobs report | C
Central banks
Fed pivot to interest-rate cuts seen likely to start in May | R
Double Trouble: Investors Fight the Fed on Two Fronts | W
US I
U.S. Consumer Confidence Jumps in December as Inflation Pressure Eases | W
Jobs report November 2023: U.S. payrolls rose 199,000 unemployment rate falls to 3.7% | C
Economy’s Soft Landing Comes Into View as Job Growth Slowly Descends | W
Solid US job growth, drop in unemployment rate underscore labor market resilience | R
Here’s where the jobs are for November 2023 in one chart | C
US II
Inflation expectations plunge in closely watched University of Michigan survey | C
'Excess profits' of big firms have driven up inflation, report claims | C
Why is buying a house in the US so hard right now? | Vox
China
How China Made a Youth Unemployment Crisis Disappear | W
Geopolitics & trade
Putin says he will run for re-election in March; U.S. aid hangs in balance after failed vote | C
Industries & companies
Autos: Falling EV prices could hinder adoption, experts say | C
Technology
Google weighing 'Project Ellmann,' uses Gemini AI to tell life stories | C
Beyond markets
Casgevy: First CRISPR gene-editing treatment approved in U.S. | C
December 07 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Onshoring, Acquisitions & Octopus
Federal incentives promoting the onshoring of manufacturing plants have certainly hit their mark in Arizona and New York. Both states are sprouting new regional semiconductor manufacturing ecosystems, Jackie reports, dramatically boosting local economic development. … Also: Financial firms with investment banking operations report a pickup in M&A, a trend that should only accelerate when the interest-rate environment stabilizes. … And our Disruptive Technologies focus today is on Octopus Energy, a British company with an innovative business model that rewards green electricity consumption.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 4.
Markets
Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500 Edge Higher; GameStop Stock Up After Earnings | W
The Most Important Debate on Wall Street: Is Inflation Licked? | W
Central banks
Pro Take: Fed Operating Losses Are Piling Up Amid Higher Interest Rates | W
US
US labor market steadily slowing; wholesale inventories revised down | R
Worker Shortage Eases a Little at Small Firms | W
The State Where Unemployment Is Rising the Fastest Is Having Trouble Filling Jobs | W
2023 was least affordable homebuying year: Redfin | C
China
China's soft crude oil imports show impact of high prices | R
China’s Exports Snap Half-Year Slide | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.S., India Signal Alleged Plot to Kill American Won’t Derail Ties | W
Xi Jinping and EU Officials Seek to Ease Economic Tensions at Beijing Summit | W
Looting, Other Crimes Break Out in Southern Gaza as Israel Presses Assault | W
Industries & companies
Banks: Big Banks Need More Out of Wall Street | W
Consumer: Amazon tests grocery subscription service for Prime members | C
Pharma: Biden administration asserts power to seize drug patents | C
Retail: National Retail Federation walks back key organized retail crime claim | C
Corporate finance
Exxon CEO dismisses worries FTC could hold up Pioneer deal | C
Climate
U.S. gives final nod to Rhode Island's $1.5 billion offshore wind farm | C
Artificial Intelligence
Google stock up after company announces Gemini AI model | C
December 06 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Over There & Over Here
Europe’s economic outlook is brightening, Melissa reports, perhaps presenting investment opportunities. The ECB’s monetary tightening has corralled inflation but also trampled GDP growth; this spring may bring monetary easing that enables revived growth. … Earlier fears of inadequate energy supplies for winter now appear ill-founded. … However, challenges remain in the form of higher energy costs and discord among EU nations over fiscal rules. … Also: Joe notes that the stock market’s post-October 27 rally has taken a turn for the broader since November 13, with more sectors participating in gains and the S&P 500 Value and Equal Weight indexes way outperforming their counterparts.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 4.
Markets
S&P 500 Erases ADP-Fueled Gains as Oil Tumbles | B
The Price Is Right for Indian Stocks | W
Energy
U.S. crude drops below $70 per barrel, gas prices fall to 11-month low | C
Oil Prices: How Russia Punched an $11 Billion Hole in West's Sanctions Regime | B
Europe’s Gas Prices Could Fall Further Next Year on Subdued Demand, Ample Inventories | W
Central banks
Deflating 'QT cushion' may have raised red Fed flag | R
Fed can slash rates and still be 'higher for longer' | R
Fed’s Barr Wants Banks Using Discount Window for Liquidity Needs | B
US
Private payrolls increased by 103,000 in November, below expectations, ADP says | C
US Visa Delays To Make Nursing Shortage Worse for Healthcare Industry | B
If Trump Weren't Running, Biden May Have Skipped 2024 Bid: Biden | B
China
The Chinese Economy Isn’t Doing Nearly as Well as China Says It Is | W
Moody's cuts China's credit outlook to negative on rising debt risks | C
Analyst Who Called Chinese Bank Turmoil Says Trusts Are Next | yahoo.com
China starts up world's first fourth-generation nuclear reactor | R
Geopolitics & trade
Russia's Putin meets Saudi crown prince in whirlwind Gulf visit | R
Italy tells China it is leaving Belt and Road Initiative | R
The U.S. Can Afford a Bigger Military. We Just Can’t Build It. | W
Industries & companies
Health Care: Senators launch bipartisan probe of private equity's growing role in U.S. health care | C
Restaurants: Searching for CosMc’s: Investors, Consumers Look for Details on New McDonald’s Brand | W
Retail: Walmart CEO Doug McMillon talks about deflation | C
Corporate finance
Rio Tinto Plans $6.2 Billion Investment in Guinea Iron Ore Project | W
Artificial Intelligence
Google launches its largest and 'most capable' AI model, Gemini | C
Beyond markets
Worrying About Pandemics Is So 2020. Should It Be? | W
Taylor Swift tops Time’s (and seemingly everyone else’s) person of the year list | C
December 04 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Ho! Ho! Ho!
The stock market’s Santa Claus rally has been turbocharged by a rallying bond market, subsiding inflation, lower oil and gasoline prices—in turn fueling consumers’ purchasing power—diminished fear of the Fed, and China’s economic weakness, which lowers the prices Americans pay for goods imported from there. … Jamie Dimon is right to warn that geopolitical dangers are great, but we don’t ascribe to his view that inflation remains troublesome, the Fed might tighten more, and the consumer’s strength likely isn’t sustainable. We think the economic evidence suggest otherwise on each score. … More good news: The sticky services inflation rates that have concerned the Fed are coming unstuck. ... Dr. Ed’s movie review: “The Holdovers” (+).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 27.
Markets I
Stock Funds Get Back on Their Feet | W
11 Stocks Left Out of the Tech Rally. Some Could Be Buys. | BR
Here's a Complete Rundown of Wall Street's 2024 Stock Market Predictions | BI
The Stocks Investors Are Putting Under the Tree | W
Markets II
Top Wall Street analysts expect these dividend stocks to enhance total returns | C
Bonds Just Had Their Best Rally Since the 1980s. What’s Next. | BR
Treasury Bond Euphoria Shifts to Market Debate on Fed Rate Cut Path | B
Central banks
Is the Fed About to Ease? Key Tests Lie Just Ahead. | BR
US
Goods Deflation Is Back. It Could Speed Inflation’s Return to 2%. | W
US Payrolls Seen Picking Up After End of UAW Strike: Eco Week | B
Jobs Report Preview: Joe Weisenthal Unravels Labor Market Expectations | B
Europe
Germany is in a bizarre fiscal mess of its own making | E
China
China's Economy Is Shifting. The World Isn’t Ready for It. | BR
China Frames ‘One Province, One Policy’ Plan for Financial Risk | B
Geopolitics & trade
Pentagon aware of attacks claimed by Houthis on ships in Red Sea | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Why Repairing Your EV Is So Expensive | W
Pharma: Pfizer weight loss pill joins list of obesity drug flops | C
Corporate finance
Alaska Air to buy Hawaiian Airlines for $1.9 billion | R
Climate
IMF chief makes the case for carbon pricing at COP28 climate talks | C
Al Gore slams COP28 climate summit host UAE, says its emissions soared | R
Exxon Mobil CEO urges COP28 climate summit to focus on emissions | C
Artificial Intelligence
Meta AI chief Yann LeCun skeptical about AGI, quantum computing | C
AI Is in the Hands of Big Tech. EU Regulation Could Help It Stay That Way. | BR
Microsoft Stock Is Near a Record High. AI Should Keep the Rally Going. | BR
Nvidia Stock Isn't the Only Way to Play AI. Super Micro and Vertiv Could Be Big Winners. | BR
Opinion | Behind China’s Plans to Build AI for the World | PO
December 02 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: MegaCap-8, AI & Gates On Climate Change
The MegaCap-8 stocks are approaching their highest collective market capitalization ever, having already hit a record high in terms of their share of the S&P 500’s capitalization. … Also: Jackie discusses Google’s AI initiatives and election-year challenges. … And: Our Disruptive Technologies segment recaps Bill Gates’ practical and innovative approach to climate-related investments as the annual COP28 climate change conference kicks off in the UAE. Three innovations seem particularly promising.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 27.
Markets
Dow Notches Longest Winning Streak Since 2021 | W
S&P 500 rises on Friday to close at 2023 high: Live updates | C
Money market funds may deliver a surprise tax bill amid higher yields | C
Uber shares pop on inclusion in S&P 500 | C
Global pension funds now balking at China | R
Global
Real wages have risen in America and are rebounding in Europe | E
A new age of the worker will overturn conventional thinking | E
Central banks
Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes Are Probably Over, but Officials Are Reluctant to Say So | W
Fed Chair Powell calls talk of cutting rates 'premature' and says more hikes could happen | C
US
US manufacturing mired in weakness, economy heading for slowdown | R
Is it cheaper to rent or buy property? | E
China
China’s economy is suffering from long covid | E
Europe
Germany is in a bizarre fiscal mess of its own making | E
Europe's clean energy boom cuts forward prices to pre-Ukraine invasion levels | R
Geopolitics & trade
Israel Plans to Kill Hamas Leaders Around the World After War | W
Putin seems to be winning the war in Ukraine—for now | E
Zelenskyy says ‘new phase of war’ has begun, Hungary to back EU ‘strategic partnership’ | C
Narendra Modi is remaking India’s 1.4m strong military | E
China is building nuclear reactors faster than any other country | E
Industries & companies
Cruise Lines: The Startling Economics of the World’s Largest Cruise Ship | W
Media: Walmart drops ads on X as Elon Musk fallout grows | C
Pharma: Pfizer to discontinue twice-daily version of weight loss pill | C
Tech: How Apple makes its own chips for iPhone and Mac, edging out Intel | C
Tech: Is This the End of ‘Intel Inside’? | W
Corporate finance
Neiman Marcus Rejects $3 Billion Takeover Bid by Saks | W
Amazon buys SpaceX rocket launches for Kuiper satellite internet project | C
Climate
What the world must do to tame methane | E
Beyond markets
Former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor dies | C
December 01 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: MegaCap-8, AI & Gates On Climate Change
The MegaCap-8 stocks are approaching their highest collective market capitalization ever, having already hit a record high in terms of their share of the S&P 500’s capitalization. … Also: Jackie discusses Google’s AI initiatives and election-year challenges. … And: Our Disruptive Technologies segment recaps Bill Gates’ practical and innovative approach to climate-related investments as the annual COP28 climate change conference kicks off in the UAE. Three innovations seem particularly promising.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 27.
Markets
S&P 500 (SPX) Gained 8.9% This Month, Second-Best November Since 1980 | B
Dow Finishes November at 2023 High | W
Oil Prices Face Wild Swings With Bot Traders Driving the Market | B
U.S. crude declines as skepticism mounts over OPEC+ cuts | C
OPEC+ may have played its final card with voluntary crude cuts: Russell | R
Foreigners Sell China Stocks For Fourth Month in Record Streak | B
Central banks
PCE inflation report October 2023: Fed's favorite gauge rises 0.2%; 3.5% from a year ago | C
Inflation’s Cooldown Gives the Fed Leeway | W
Fed Officials Shift Tone But Remain Wary of Markets’ Rate Cut Bets | B
Fed officials feel rate hikes likely done, but too soon to know | R
Eurozone Inflation Fell More Than Expected, Putting ECB Rate Cuts Into View | W
US
US Consumer Spending, Inflation Slow in Sign of Cooling Economy | B
Pending home sales drop to record low | C
China
How Huawei Is Helping China Build Up Its Semiconductor Independence | B
India
India turns to coal as hydro generation falls | R
Geopolitics & trade
Japan says 'concerned' US continues to fly Ospreys despite grounding request | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Tesla Cybertruck Price Revealed: Starts at Around $61,000 | W
Health Care: J&J Hired Thousands of Data Scientists. Will The Strategy Pay Off? | W
Media: Meta’s Threads to Launch in Europe in App’s Biggest Expansion Since Debut | W
Media: Nelson Peltz's Trian to seek at least three Disney board seats, sources say | R
Pharma: Novo Nordisk sues pharmacies over impure Wegovy, Ozempic dupes | C
Tech: Big Tech in 2024: Retail Traders Sell Positions in Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft | B
Tech: This tiny country drove 15% of Nvidia's revenue – here's why it needs so many chips | C
Crypto
U.S. Treasury lobbies for more power to chase crypto crime outside America | C
Coinbase jumps in November as FTX, Binance founders brace for prison | C
Corporate finance
Biotech stocks jump on AbbVie deal to buy cancer drugmaker ImmunoGen | C
Climate
Why No One Wants to Pay for the Green Transition | W
Germany Gets Honest About What Net Zero Will Cost | W
Artificial Intelligence
OpenAI tender offer on track despite leadership fracas: sources | C
Retailers Are Turning to AI to Get Smarter About Inventory | W
US compels Saudi fund to exit Altman-backed AI chip startup | B News | R
Beyond markets
New York’s Near Zombie Apocalypse | W
November 30 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: MegaCap-8, AI & Gates On Climate Change
The MegaCap-8 stocks are approaching their highest collective market capitalization ever, having already hit a record high in terms of their share of the S&P 500’s capitalization. … Also: Jackie discusses Google’s AI initiatives and election-year challenges. … And: Our Disruptive Technologies segment recaps Bill Gates’ practical and innovative approach to climate-related investments as the annual COP28 climate change conference kicks off in the UAE. Three innovations seem particularly promising.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 27.
Markets
S&P 500 Slips, Halting November Gains | W
Notable investor says ‘the top of growth stocks is coming’ | C
Investors Lose Legal Bid Against Exchange Over Nickel Market Blowup | W
Oil prices edge higher as OPEC+ meets to discuss supply cuts | R
OPEC+ agrees preliminary oil cut deal of over 1 million bpd, sources say | R
Central banks
Here's what it would take for the Fed to start slashing rates in 2024 | C
Fed starting gun for $6 trillion dash from cash | R
US
Consumers Likely Pulled Back Spending in October | W
Trump financial watchdog tells judge money transfers | C
Europe
Europe Needs More LNG to Ease Tight Market, Uniper CEO Says | B
Euro zone inflation tumble pits ECB against markets | R
China
China’s Manufacturing PMI Edged Lower, Signaling Continued Weakness | W
China’s Economy Faces a Sour End to the Year | W
Geopolitics & trade
No Strings Attached? Conditions on Israel Aid Split Democrats | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: Spirit Airlines offers buyouts to salaried employees | C
Autos: UAW launches union campaigns at Tesla, 12 other automakers in the U.S. | C
Media: Iger explains Marvels flop, too many Disney sequels | C
Artificial Intelligence
OpenAI’s New Board Takes Over and Says Microsoft Will Have Observer Role | W
Talking to Chatbots Is Now a $200K Job. So I Applied. | W
Corporate finance
Cigna, Humana in Talks for Blockbuster Insurance Merger in Stock-and-Cash Deal | W
European Debt: ‘Zombie’ CLOs New Hurdle | B
Climate
COP28 opens with plea to work together on fossil fuels | R
Beyond markets
Henry Kissinger, Who Helped Forge U.S. Foreign Policy During Vietnam and Cold Wars, Dies at 100 | W
Elon Musk says advertisers trying to 'blackmail' him | C
November 29 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Breaking Good
Many of investors’ fears in 2023 turned out to be unfounded; all they really had to fear was fear itself. Now that investor sentiment has improved as investors have cast some fears aside, will undue fearlessness be a concern for the stock market in 2024? … Also improved from a year ago has been the consensus outlook of Wall Street strategists for S&P 500 operating earnings per share; our own estimates for this year and next have been and are still higher than the consensus. … Also: Joe shares the latest net estimate revisions data, showing more estimate cutting than hiking over the past three months. But analysts still expect positive y/y growth in both revenues and earnings next year.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 27.
Markets
Big Oil Bets on Hot Air in Climate Talks | W
OPEC+ producers to head into meeting amid quota dispute | C
Central banks
Fed’s Bostic Says Evidence Points to Downward Path for Inflation | B
Bill Ackman Bets Fed Will Cut Interest Rates Sooner Than Markets Are Predicting | B
US I
GDP 3Q 2023: US Economy Grew 5.2%, More Than First Estimated | B
Former Trump advisor Gary Cohn says U.S. economy is back to normal | C
Even Most Biden Voters Don’t See a Thriving Economy | N
Americans are 'doom spending' — here's why that's a problem | C
Hot Healthcare Hiring Bolsters Cooling U.S. Labor Market | W
U.S. Suicides Reached a Record High Last Year | W
US II
The Price Is Wrong for Housing | W
Home Prices Hit Fresh Record in September | W
Housing Prices at Record High: Consider a Small Down Payment | C
Mortgage demand from homebuyers gets boost as interest rates fall | C
Europe
Europe's Signa toppled in property rout | R
China
China's rising copper imports belie manufacturing gloom | R
Geopolitics & trade
Biden to Limit Chinese Role in U.S. EV Market | W
Industries & companies
Shipping: The Pandemic Blunder Weighing on the Shipping Industry | W
Tech: Tech’s New Normal: Microcuts Over Growth at All Costs | W
Tech: Why Amazon and Nvidia Need Each Other | W
Corporate finance
GM Plans $10 Billion Stock Buyback in Bid to Assuage Investors, Hike Dividend by 33% | W
Stability AI Has Explored Sale as Investor Urges CEO to Resign | B
Beyond markets
After Munger's death, Berkshire succession comes into focus | R
Elon Musk’s quest in foreign affairs plagued by his own online behavior | NN
November 28 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Xi’s New Open-Door Policy
China’s economy is hurting, and the government’s recent attempt to cozy up to the US—on display in President Xi’s recent speech—reflects a dire need for more foreign direct investment. But to get it, the government may need to change its aggressive ways. … China’s consumers are feeling the economic pain firsthand, with declining net worths affecting their spending. Two major crises led China to this juncture, one related to its flailing property market and the other to its aging and shrinking population. … US consumers, on the other hand, are flush with substantial net worth, especially the Baby Boomers.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 27.
Markets
The Stocks That AI Mania Left Behind | W
Stocks hold firm as dollar dithers ahead of US data | R
US
U.S. needs 'bipartisan' leadership and a 'strong middle': Ray Dalio | C
Biden slams corporations over high consumer costs | C
Opinion | Nikki Haley Is Coming for Your Retirement | N
Europe
Europe Is Short of Ammunition at a Bad Time | W
China
China’s Property Lifeline Exposes Banks to Big Losses, Job Cuts | B
India
The Clearest Sign of India’s Very Good Year | W
Geopolitics & trade
Negotiators Press for Long-Term Israel-Hamas Truce | W
Gaza Protests at Colleges Open a Generational Divide | W
The Cost of Doing Business With China? A $40,000 Dinner With Xi Jinping Might Be Just the Start | W
Industries & companies
Aerospace: First long-haul flight fully powered by sustainable aviation fuel takes off | C
Banks: Zions, Comerica, First Horizon: Regional bank takeover risk | C
Media: Disney 'Wish' disappoints at the Thanksgiving box office | C
Retail: Shein files for U.S. IPO, looks to expand global reach | C
Tech: Amazon rolls out palm-scanning technology for office workers | C
Tech: Microsoft Needs a Better Seat at OpenAI’s Table | W
Climate
What Are the Biggest Fights at COP28 Climate Summit? | B
The Newest Airline Climate Solution? Burying Sawdust | W
Two US projects highlight divide over carbon removal’s role in climate fight | R
Artificial Intelligence
AI threatens wages, not jobs - so far, ECB paper finds | R
November 27 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Update: Another Roaring Twenties May Still Be Ahead
Our Roaring 2020s outlook for this decade centers on the idea that technological innovations such as the so-called BRAIN technologies will be widely adopted by companies, fueling productivity growth that minimizes the economy’s major problem of a tight labor market and drives widespread prosperity. The pandemic derailed a productivity boom that started gathering steam in late 2015 and is just this year getting back on track. … We think the stock market rally that began a year ago reflects the technological revolution at the core of our Roaring 2020s scenario. … Of course, there are doubters; we address each of their main points below.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 13.
Markets
How to Invest for a More Normal Market | BR
Investors Are Hungry for Risk—and Holding Record Cash Sums | W
The World’s Largest Buyer of U.S. Debt Isn’t Going Away | W
Gold at six-month high as dollar declines and investors eye rate cuts | C
American Oil—Good to the Last Drop? | W
Currency clashes sour Russia's oil trade with Asia | R
Central banks
Investors See Interest-Rate Cuts Coming Soon, Recession or Not | W
US
Amid High Mortgage Rates, Higher Share of Americans Outright Own Homes | B
As US job market softens, gains of minority groups hang in the balance | R
Biden will convene his new supply chain council and announce 30 steps to strengthen U.S. logistics | C
China
China Scrambles to Contain a Looming Shadow-Bank Meltdown | W
Geopolitics & trade
Putin Has Staked Russia’s Resources on Victory in Ukraine. Can the West Match Him? | W
Global Automakers Turn to China for EV Lessons | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Behind Tesla’s Challenges in Making the Cybertruck: Ultrahard Stainless Steel | W
Health Care: Magic Pills Are Coming | W
Logistics: Amazon Tops UPS and FedEx to Become Biggest U.S. Delivery Business | W
Media: TikTok owner ByteDance axes hundreds of jobs in gaming unit | C
Pharma: Vaccines: A Golden Age of Shots Is Here. What It Means for You. | BR
Pharma: Mounjaro superior to Ozempic for weight loss, study says | C
Real Estate: The looming office space real estate shortage. Yes, shortage | C
Retail: Retailers Have Cleaned Up Their Inventories for the Holidays | W
Retail: Buybuy Baby Comeback Bets Expectant Parents Want to Shop in Stores | W
Corporate finance
Apple iPhone maker Foxconn to invest $1.5 billion in India expansion | C
Climate
Progress on climate change has been too slow. But it’s been real | E
Now for Some Good News About Climate | W
Climate: UAE reportedly planned to use COP28 to lobby for oil deals | C
Artificial Intelligence & crypto
The fallout from the weirdness at OpenAI | E
Coinbase CEO: crypto industry can turn page after Binance settlement | C
Beyond markets
These 5 in-demand AI jobs pay $100,000 or more—and can be done from home | C
Taylor Swift’s ‘Eras Tour’ concert film will be available to stream. Here’s when and where | C
November 21 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Oil, Stocks & 3-D Hand Printing
In the spirit of the season, Jackie reflects on two sources of US investors’ gratitude—lower fuel prices and the stock market rally. … A confluence of factors has driven down fuel prices as Americans set out on their Thanksgiving travels, including record-high US oil production and lower-than-expected demand from China. … Interest-rate-sensitive industries have outperformed in recent weeks’ stock-market rally as investors lay bets that the Fed is done tightening. The rally has bumped three S&P 500 sectors to ytd gains above 30%. … And our Disruptive Technologies focus: hand-softening technology for robots, courtesy of 3-D printing.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 13.
Markets
Stocks Extend Rally, Boosted by AI Optimism | W
All Is Quiet in Oil Markets—for Now | W
Central banks
Fed Officials Thought Rates Could Rise More if Inflation Stayed Stubborn | N
Fed minutes anchor cautious policy approach as risks become more two-sided | R
The Fed Wants More Evidence Before Changing Rate Stance | W
Fed minutes November 2023 | C
US
US existing home sales slump to more than 13-year low, prices accelerate | R
Houses Too Expensive to Buy Underpin Lofty Rents | W
Rising US debt stokes calls in Congress for special fiscal commission | R
'Funflation' drives sporting event ticket prices up a whopping 25% | C
Opinion | Subscriptions Create Sneaky Sticker Shock | N
The success of the expanded child tax credit reveals the failure of phase-ins | Vox
Europe
Europe’s gas crisis is over, but not the painful adjustment | R
Germany Freezes Public Spending in New Setback for Europe | W
China
China unlikely to repeat last winter's surge of fuel exports | R
The Big Bank With a $15 Billion Conundrum in China | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. Warns Iran Is Weighing Sending Short-Range Missiles to Russia | W
Israel, Hamas Near Hostage Deal as Gaza Fighting Intensifies | W
China Steps Up Support for Palestinian Cause in Challenge to U.S. Mideast Policy | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Ford Downsizes Plan for Michigan Battery Factory, Citing Slower EV Demand | W
Autos: Ford scales back EV battery plant in Michigan | C
Artificial Intelligence
OpenAI’s Ineffective Altruists vs. Sam Altman | W
OpenAI Is a Mess. So What Happens to ChatGPT Now? | W
Corporate finance
Blackstone Nears $2.5 Billion Deal to Buy Software Developer Civica | W
Crypto
Cryptocurrencies dip as investors digest regulatory updates from Binance, Kraken | C
November 20 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Thanksgiving
Americans have many blessings to count this week: Real GDP is at a record high; so are real consumption per household, real wages, and household net worth. Thanks to our Founding Fathers, no other country cultivates entrepreneurial capitalism as well as America. … Also: Joe finds that the leadership of the stock market rally has shifted away from large-cap and Growth stocks since last Monday. That follows the script of stock market rallies generally: They get off the ground with the strongest leaders, then broaden out to include other capitalization sizes and investment styles.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 13.
Markets
Stock Market Today: OpenAI Upheaval in Focus, Microsoft Stock Edges Higher | W
US 20-Year Yield Falls After $16 Billion Sale: Markets Wrap | B
US
The Hidden Hero Fueling Soft-Landing Hopes: A Boost in Supply | W
Yellen: Food, rent inflation key factors in voters' negative economic outlook | C
‘Bidenomics’ should take a page from the ‘Clintonomics’ playbook | The Hill
There’s a Singular Fix for Inflation, and It’s All About Standards | FO
The Pay Raise People Say They Need to Be Happy | W
A record number of $50 bills were printed last year. It’s not why you think | NN
India
Indian capital resumes some activities despite hazardous air, river foam | R
Geopolitics & trade
Israeli Military Encircles Another Gaza Hospital, Doctors Say: Latest News | W
China Denies Australia’s Claim That Warship Used Sonar Against Divers | W
US to announce global nuclear fusion strategy at COP28 | R
Industries & companies
Autos: UAW clinches record Detroit deals, turns to organizing Tesla, foreign automakers | R
Autos: Will You Keep Driving When Autonomous Vehicles Are Safer Than Humans? | W
Financials: Citigroup Cuts Over 300 Manager Roles as Part of CEO Fraser's Restructuring | B
Artificial Intelligence
OpenAI Glitch Shows Weaknesses in Microsoft’s AI Armor | W
Ousted OpenAI head Sam Altman to lead Microsoft's new AI team | C
Hundreds of OpenAI employees threaten to follow Altman to Microsoft unless board resigns | C
Nvidia Earnings Preview: What Investors Should Expect From the AI Stock Star | W
Beyond markets
Ozempic, Weight-Loss Drugs Make Thanksgiving Less About the Food | B
November 18 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Retailers, Semis & Quantum Computing
With consumers employed and feeling flush, the holiday selling season is starting off well. The recent quarterly earnings reports of a few big retailers were mixed, with TJX reporting good customer traffic while Home Depot and Target beat expectations. ... Also: The S&P 500 Semiconductor industry’s price index has nearly doubled this ytd! But while some of its member stocks have posted outsized ytd gains, others have ytd drops. Jackie explores what’s fueling the price action. … And: Quantum computing is advancing by leaps and bounds. So is AI. Combine the two, as some companies are doing, and the innovation potential is astronomical.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 13.
Markets
Small-Cap Stocks Are Finally Making Some Noise. Be Careful. | BR
This Hot Market May Not Last. Why Options Look Better Than Stocks. | BR
Copper Prices Are Rising Again—and So Is Freeport-McMoRan Stock | BR
Bad Credit? Car Loans You Can’t Afford Make Millions for Wall Street | B
High yield bond market may hold less junk than before: McGeever | R
Short-seller Jim Chanos to close hedge funds -WSJ | R
Central banks
Will the Fed Cut Rates in 2024? The Case That High Inflation Isn’t Over Just Yet. | BR
US I
Profit Recession Ends as a Challenging Holiday Season Begins | B
Is a Recession Coming? Consumers Still Have Plenty to Spend. | BR
This Year’s Black Friday Bonus: Falling Prices | W
America’s Top 1% Don’t Make as Much as You Might Think | B
When Will Home Prices Drop? What It Would Take For Them to Come Down. | BR
US II
Wall Street Eyes Nikki Haley as Trump Spoiler | W
Donald Trump poses the biggest danger to the world in 2024 | E
New Speaker Mike Johnson Confronts Old GOP Problems as Honeymoon Period Ends | W
China
The Price of China’s Exports Is Dropping, Compounding Its Economic Woes | BR
China’s shoppers are gloomy and picky | E
Japan
Will Japan rediscover its dynamism? | E
Geopolitics & trade
Joe Biden and Xi Jinping rediscover the joy of talking. Good | E
Industries & companies
Airlines: Thanksgiving air travel set for records in test for airlines | C
Consumer: 6 Consumer Stocks for a Growing Economy | BR
Media: Disney box office flops put pressure on Iger, Bergman | C
Media: Apple, Disney, Warner, Paramount Global and Lionsgate pause advertising on X | C
Retail: Retailers Will Compete Harder for Holiday Sales This Year. Who Will Win. | BR
Retail: The Score: Target, Boeing, Macy’s and More Stocks That Defined the Week | W
Artificial Intelligence
OpenAI says Sam Altman exits as CEO after board loses confidence | C
Beyond markets
How Elon Musk, for Many, Went Too Far | W
SpaceX Starship rocket goes for second launch attempt | C
U.S. lawmakers urge scrutiny of worker injuries at Elon Musk's SpaceX | C
November 17 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Retailers, Semis & Quantum Computing
With consumers employed and feeling flush, the holiday selling season is starting off well. The recent quarterly earnings reports of a few big retailers were mixed, with TJX reporting good customer traffic while Home Depot and Target beat expectations. ... Also: The S&P 500 Semiconductor industry’s price index has nearly doubled this ytd! But while some of its member stocks have posted outsized ytd gains, others have ytd drops. Jackie explores what’s fueling the price action. … And: Quantum computing is advancing by leaps and bounds. So is AI. Combine the two, as some companies are doing, and the innovation potential is astronomical.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 13.
Markets
Is the Stage Set for a Year-End Rally? | W
What’s Behind the Market’s Wild Overreactions | W
Column: Geopolitical angst more a market feature than shock | R
Central banks
Powell Fed Votes Together on Interest Rates During Inflation Fight | B
Fed's Susan Collins says more rate hikes can't be taken off the table yet | C
BOJ’s Ueda Says Weak Yen Isn’t Only Negative for Japan’s Economy | B
Global
Factories Stay on Sidelines of Recovery: Bloomberg Trade Tracker
US I
Amid High Mortgage Rates, Higher Share of Americans Outright Own Homes | B
Congrats, Your House Made You Rich. Now Sell It. | W
US jobs data may be miscounting millions of 'gig' workers, research suggests | R
Tipping once rewarded good service. Now it predicts how you're treated | C
US II
Where Have All the Foreign Buyers Gone for U.S. Treasury Debt? | W
Ray Dalio says U.S. reaching a point where our debt problem gets even worse | C
Opinion | Why Great G.D.P. Growth Isn’t Good Enough for Bidenomics | N
China
Is China Ready for Combat? Russia-Ukraine War Is a Lesson for Xi’s Military | B
Geopolitics & trade
Israel Says It Is Close to Dismantling Hamas Military System in Northern Gaza | W
Xi’s Warm Words Jar With Reality for Foreign Companies in China | B
Avoiding China Has Been a Winning Investment Strategy. But It Isn’t Easy. | W
Podcast: Biden’s ‘Organic’ Strategy for US-China Diplomacy | B
Industries & companies
Autos: Are Americans Falling Out of Love With EVs? | W
Autos: Cadillac Optiq: New entry-level EV crossover | C
Consumer: Amazon.com to cut 'several hundred' Alexa jobs | R
Pharma: Retail investors crowd into Eli Lilly after weight-loss drug approval | R
Real Estate: Almost No One Pays a 6% Real-Estate Commission—Except Americans | W
Retail: Gap Is Righting the Ship With Old Navy | W
Technology
Why Brain-Reading Devices Could be the Next Big Thing in Optimizing Your Life | W
AI is about to completely change how you use computers | Bill Gates
November 16 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Retailers, Semis & Quantum Computing
With consumers employed and feeling flush, the holiday selling season is starting off well. The recent quarterly earnings reports of a few big retailers were mixed, with TJX reporting good customer traffic while Home Depot and Target beat expectations. ... Also: The S&P 500 Semiconductor industry’s price index has nearly doubled this ytd! But while some of its member stocks have posted outsized ytd gains, others have ytd drops. Jackie explores what’s fueling the price action. … And: Quantum computing is advancing by leaps and bounds. So is AI. Combine the two, as some companies are doing, and the innovation potential is astronomical.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 13.
Markets
Stocks Continue to Rally, With Investors More Confident in a Soft Landing | W
The market thinks rates will come down a lot. It could be let down | C
Bonds are still good for your retirement and college savings | WT
Boom at last for 'Big Long' in bonds | R
Wall Street Loves Washington’s New Debt Approach—for Now | W
Global
The Global Fight Against Inflation Has Turned a Corner | W
US
Joe Manchin Absolutely Considering 2024 Presidential Run, He Says | B
Senate Approves Short-Term Spending Bill as Lawmakers Eschew Shutdown Politics | W
Judge in Trump’s Georgia Case to Bar Release of Sensitive Evidence After Media Leaks | W
Trump requests mistrial in $250 million New York business fraud case | C
US producer prices unexpectedly fall in October | R
US economy cools as retail sales dip, monthly producer prices decline | R
Europe
Germany Cannot Shift Covid Funds to Climate Projects, Court Rules | N
Geopolitics & trade
The Rise and Fall of the U.S.-China Economic Partnership | N
China’s Xi Draws Standing Ovation From U.S. Business Leaders—and Some Doubts | W
Biden-Xi APEC Meeting: Military, Fentanyl, AI on Agenda | B
Biden-Xi APEC Meeting: China Denounces Report That Criticized US-China Relations | B
China objects to US bid for APEC to shift trade and investment principles | R
How US, China are Competing for Influence in Solomons, Pacific Islands | B
Al-Shifa Hospital: Israeli Troops Raid Gaza Hospital in Search of Hamas Militants | W
Why Pentagon spending billions to bring laser weapons to battlefield | C
Industries & companies
Autos: UAW Workers at GM’s Largest Plant Back Labor Pact, Boosting Deal’s Chances | W
Autos: GM-UAW deal back on track for ratification | C
Airlines: Air-Traffic Safety Threatened by Staffing, Funding Woes, Report Says | W
Energy: US Opens Talks With Global Gas Heavyweights on Emission Tracking | B
Retail: Target earnings: CEO says customers thankful for locked items | C
Tech: Microsoft CEO Nadella says company isn't focused on China domestically | C
Tech: Microsoft reveals Maia AI processor and Cobalt Arm-based chip | C
November 15 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Transitory After All
It’s no longer debatable: October’s headline and core CPI excluding shelter reveal that inflation has turned out to be a transitory rather than persistent problem. Rent-of-shelter inflation and nonhousing services inflation are coming back down to Earth more slowly but surely too, as the pandemic effects lifting them all are finally dissipating. … Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the supply of Treasuries didn’t push yields up in October, yet her actions easing supply concerns speak louder. … Also: Small business owners have plenty of job openings but not enough qualified job applicants. …. And: Joe finds just a handful of big companies account for lowered S&P 500 Q4 earnings expectations.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 13.
Markets
UBS boss Ermotti says 'incredible' bond demand is 'a signal to the Swiss banking system' | C
Central banks
Opinion | The Federal Reserve Has Frozen Our Housing Market | N
US I
U.S. Retail Sales Fall for First Time Since March as Holiday Season Approaches | W
The Elusive Soft Landing Is Coming Into View | W
House passes bill to avoid government shutdown, Senate to vote next | C
The $2 Trillion Interest Bill That’s Hitting Governments | W
'Bidenomics' is the opposite of Reaganomics | WT
US II
Inflation in the US is improving, the public mood is still sour | R
Wholesale prices fell 0.5% in October for biggest monthly drop since April 2020 | C
Mortgage demand at highest level in 5 weeks after interest rates fall | C
While All Inflation Feels Bad, Housing Inflation Is the Worst | W
UBS: Inflation is ending, but that’s 'little comfort to households' | C
Cathie Wood Has a Message for Investors: You’re Worried About the Wrong Thing | W
Europe
Europe primed for industrial reboot after key power price deals | R
Japan
Japan’s Economy Shrinks for First Time in Three Quarters | MSN
China
It’s Too Soon to Bet on China’s Housing Turnaround | W
Geopolitics & trade
Biden, Xi Jinping to Meet in California Amid Atmosphere of Friction | W
Biden-Xi: New Chinese factory data puts trade war, tariffs on agenda | C
U.S. and China vie for dominance in 'a la carte' world order: survey | C
Industries & companies
Autos: I Visited Over 120 EV Chargers: Three Reasons Why So Many Were Broken | W
Autos: UAW-GM deal: Union workers appear poised to reject contract | C
Financials: Citigroup layoffs begin as part of CEO Jane Fraser’s overhaul | C
Artificial Intelligence
The A.I. doomer backlash is here. | Slate.com
Companies Tried to Spend Less on Cloud. Then AI Showed Up. | W
November 14 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Relevant Matters
Today, we focus our observations on earnings, valuation, and inflation. … S&P 500 companies’ collective Q3 earnings, forward earnings, and forward revenues all stand at record highs. But analysts’ earnings estimates for future quarters have been dropping. … There’s not always a neat inverse correlation between stock market valuations and bond yields. One reason: The MegaCap-8 stocks represent an outsized chunk of the S&P 500’s P/E; but with less leverage than most companies, interest rates affect them less. … Our moderating inflation outlook suggests no more federal funds rate hikes this tightening round; we examine some of the data it reflects.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 13.
Markets
European stocks up ahead of U.S. inflation data | R
Central banks
UBS sees a raft of Fed rate cuts next year on the back of a U.S. recession | C
US
CPI Report Shows Inflation Cooled to 3.2% in November | W
Consumer spending fell in October, according to new CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor tracking card transactions | C
Earnings Estimates Are Falling. These Two Companies Are Shouldering the Blame. | W
With Interest Rates Above 9%, Small Businesses Slam the Brakes | W
House Speaker Johnson predicts 'bipartisan agreement' on two-step government funding plan | C
Moody's warning on the massive U.S. debt burden has turned into a nonevent | C
The Trillion-Dollar Win Hiding in Your Mortgage | W
Europe
Euro zone Q3 GDP shrinks, but employment rises | R
Europe primed for industrial reboot after key power price deals | R
China
Why Xi Can No Longer Brag About the Chinese Economy | W
Exclusive: China orders local governments to cut exposure to public-private projects as debt risks rise | R
Geopolitics & trade
Israel-Hamas war: Data shows human cost of conflict through the years | C
Industries & companies
Autos: Automakers' drive to avoid China's EV rare earth dominance gathers speed | R
Energy: Why oil companies Shell and BP are building solar on farmland | C
Retail: Home Depot earnings beat, but retailer offers a tepid outlook as sales slide | C
Technology
New Breed of Supercomputer Aims for the Two Quintillion Mark | W
Corporate finance
Chevron takeover of Hess resurrects multi-billion dollar tax shield | R
Beyond markets
Ultra-Processed Food: What We Know About the Potential Health Risks in American Diets | W
November 13 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Stock Investors Back In The Saddle Again
The stock market has a good track record as a business-cycle indicator, even though last year’s bear market was a false alarm, as investors expected a recession that never came. Since that bear market ended, in October 2022, the stock market has been in a bull market, with its August-through-October weakness simply a correction. Now the Bond Vigilantes and their concerns have retreated, clearing the way for the S&P 500 to rise to our targets of 4600 by year-end 2023 and 5400 by year-end 2024. … Such expected stock market strength jibes with our economic outlook, which presumes that a recession isn’t likely before the end of 2024. ... And: Dr. Ed reviews “NYAD” (+).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 6.
Markets
Stocks Are Suddenly Up—And FOMO Is Back | W
Growing geopolitical conflicts have some investors feeling guilty about buying defense stocks | C
A $20 Billion Week Marks Reopening of Market for EM Borrowers | B
Investors pull record sums from Saudi in Middle East fund flight | R
Central banks
Central banks need a word with budget masters | R
Stubborn Core CPI Helps Explain Some Fed Restlessness: Eco Week | B
US
The Low-Wage Pay Surge Is Over, Threatening the Consumer Boom | W
Some public workers may receive reduced Social Security benefits | C
Is Remote Work the Answer to Women’s Prayers, or a New ‘Mommy Track’? | N
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has not decided whether to seek reelection in 2024 | C
House Republicans unveil their plan to avert a government shutdown next week | C
The Biggest ‘Shrinkflation’ Scandal Yet: Oreo Fans Think Cookies Have Less Filling | W
India
Indian Stocks Advance in Diwali Session on Improving Economy | B
Geopolitics & trade
As Biden and Xi gear up for a high-stakes meeting, experts have low expectations | C
What It Took to Get Biden and Xi to the Table | W
Hamas Needed a New Way to Get Money From Iran. It Turned to Crypto. | W
Industries & companies
Media: 'The Marvels' worst opening weekend box office for MCU | C
Tech: You Paid $1,000 for an iPhone, but Apple Still Controls It | N
Climate
New satellite will detect and share CO2 data from individual facilities | R
The Path to Green Energy Is Getting Messier | W
How Cancer-Linked PFAS ‘Forever Chemicals’ Found Their Way Into Everyone | B
Beyond markets
FTX Adds a Complex Chapter to the Financial-Fraud History Books | B
Elon Musk biopic: Darren Aronofsky Oscar track record | C
Taylor Swift's postponed Argentina show prompts airline to waive flight-change fees | C
November 11 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Global Growth Fears Hit Industrials & Materials
Low hopes for the global economy have been weighing on the share price indexes of the S&P 500 Industrials and Materials sectors, especially this week. Today, Jackie examines some counterintuitive stock price action among select industries and companies within the two sectors. For example, automating factories should be a promising business these days, but investors have punished two players in this space, Emerson and Rockwell, for disappointing recent quarters. Conversely, the S&P 500 Steel industry’s share price index has been performing well despite analysts’ low earnings expectations, lifted by a legal win for continued US tariffs on steel imports and the end of the UAW strike.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 6.
Markets
Forget the S&P 500. Pay attention to the S&P 493 | E
Stocks Rallied as Treasury Yields Fell. Don’t Get Used to It. | BR
Bonds vs. Bond Funds: How Higher Rates Are Changing the Calculation | W
Oil Prices Will Head Higher Next Year on Rising Demand | BR
Central banks
Central banks need a word with budget masters | R
US I
The Earnings Recession Is Over. The Economic Recession Is Coming Soon. | BR
Moody's cuts U.S. outlook to negative, citing deficits and political polarization | C
On Main Street, time to prepare for the new minimum wage hikes in 2024 | C
California is losing people, but this region wouldn’t know it | E
US II
Democrats are giddy from this week’s electoral sweep | E
Will Joe Manchin Run for President? Democrats Fear a Disaster. | W
Donald Trump looks terrifyingly electable | E
Trump admits various people saw papers, boxes brought from White House | C
Europe
Giorgia Meloni’s “mother of all reforms” is a power grab | E
Europe’s Labor Unions Have Gone Quiet. Why Strikes Suddenly Stopped. | BR
China
How scary is China? | E
China wants women to stay home and bear children | E
India
India is in the midst of an unusual IPO boom | E
Geopolitics & trade
Will America pull the plug on Israel’s invasion of Gaza? | E
China’s aggression brings Japan and the Philippines closer | E
Yellen warns Beijing: Chinese firms aiding Russia face 'significant consequences' | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: Flight discounts are back as airlines race to fill seats | C
Autos: Three big reasons Americans haven't rapidly adopted EVs | E
Energy: Clean-Energy Stocks Have Collapsed. What Comes Next. | BR
Financials: Citi Stock: Should You Buy? How the Bank Can Get Back on Track. | BR
Financials: Bank of America Stock Is Slumping. One Director Bought Up Shares. | BR
Health Care: Prenuvo offers $2,500 full-body MRI scans that can detect cancer early | C
Media: Walt Disney’s Strong Earnings Might Not Placate Peltz | BR
Pharma: Weight loss drug Wegovy slashes risk of serious heart complications | C
Retail: Five Economic Signs You’re Smart to Procrastinate on Holiday Shopping This Year | W
Retail: Building an online sales success story is getting complex and costly | C
Retail: TJX, Nike, and Other Stocks That Belong on Your Shopping List | BR
Technology
The rapid rise of Elon Musk's Starlink satellite internet business | C
Artificial Intelligence
OpenAI will let users build custom versions of ChatGPT | C
Now AI can write, sing and act, is it still possible to be a star? | E
Climate
Carbon neutrality is harder than you think, but it’s worth it | The Hill
Beyond markets
What Elon Musk’s ‘Age of Abundance’ Means for the Future of Capitalism | W
How Seniors Could Avoid Fall Injuries With a Martial-Arts Lesson | W
November 10 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Global Growth Fears Hit Industrials & Materials
Low hopes for the global economy have been weighing on the share price indexes of the S&P 500 Industrials and Materials sectors, especially this week. Today, Jackie examines some counterintuitive stock price action among select industries and companies within the two sectors. For example, automating factories should be a promising business these days, but investors have punished two players in this space, Emerson and Rockwell, for disappointing recent quarters. Conversely, the S&P 500 Steel industry’s share price index has been performing well despite analysts’ low earnings expectations, lifted by a legal win for continued US tariffs on steel imports and the end of the UAW strike.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 6.
Markets
Stocks Snap Winning Streak After Powell Warns Inflation Victory Not Assured | W
Dow Futures Gain, Gloom Stalks European Luxury | W
Back to the future? The new interest rate normal might look a lot like the pre-crash era | The Hill
Your Money Needs to Go on a Vacation | W
Why Are Oil Prices Falling While War Rages in the Middle East? | N
Oil prices slump as fundamentals reassert themselves | R
Central banks
Central banks need a word with budget masters | R
US
When You Give Up on Buying a House, What Do You Do With the Down Payment? | W
How Work From Home Has Reshaped What Americans Buy | W
Joe Manchin: Why I Won’t Be Seeking Re-Election to the Senate | W
Why Third-Party Candidates Threaten Biden in 2024 | W
Europe
Europe Gas: Traders Tap Storage as Cold Snap Arrives | B
As American companies rethink ESG, Europe plans to force it down our throats | Washington Examiner
Japan
Japan Prepares $13 Billion to Support Country’s Chip Sector | B
China
ICBC, the world's biggest bank, hit by ransomware cyberattack | C
China's SMIC posts a 80% drop in third-quarter profit | C
India
India’s Factory Output Slows in September on Weak Demand | B
Geopolitics & trade
Israel Races to Root Out Hamas as Calls for Gaza Cease-Fire Mount | W
What the world needs from the Biden-Xi summit amid global chaos | C
China Is Making Too Much Stuff—and Other Countries Are Worried | W
Nvidia will reportedly sell new chips to China that still meet U.S. rules | C
Artificial Intelligence
AI’s Power-Guzzling Habits Drive Search for Alternative Energy Sources | W
Corporate finance
How Risky Is Private Credit? Analysts Are Piecing Together Clues | W
Private Equity, Now Featuring Less Equity | W
Beyond markets
Socially Isolated and Lonely People Are Dying Early | W
November 9 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Global Growth Fears Hit Industrials & Materials
Low hopes for the global economy have been weighing on the share price indexes of the S&P 500 Industrials and Materials sectors, especially this week. Today, Jackie examines some counterintuitive stock price action among select industries and companies within the two sectors. For example, automating factories should be a promising business these days, but investors have punished two players in this space, Emerson and Rockwell, for disappointing recent quarters. Conversely, the S&P 500 Steel industry’s share price index has been performing well despite analysts’ low earnings expectations, lifted by a legal win for continued US tariffs on steel imports and the end of the UAW strike.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 6.
Markets
Falling Treasury yields could turn Fed hawkish if financial conditions ease | R
US
Average credit card balances top $6,000, a 10-year high | C
America’s Population Projected to Shrink by 2100, Census Figures Show | W
Nikki Haley Stands Out on Foreign Policy at the Republican Debate | W
Japan
The Land Where Inflation Is Good News | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. and China to Meet as Shifting Economic Fortunes Alter Relationship | W
Surge and Swarm: How China’s Ships Control the South China Sea | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: United Airlines tweaks frequent flyer program to reward spending | C
Autos: GM's Cruise lays off contractors after suspending self-driving cars | C
Autos: The EV Era Needs a Lot of Really Big Trees | W
Media: 'The Marvels' headed for bad box office open | C
Media: SAG-AFTRA strike impact on Hollywood will linger | C
Tech: Nvidia plans to release three new chips for China - local media | R
Corporate finance
The IPO market has grown quiet again. Here's what is behind the shift in sentiment | C
Artificial Intelligence
AI’s Power-Guzzling Habits Drive Search for Alternative Energy Sources | W
Beyond markets
Shell sues Greenpeace for $2.1 million after activists boarded oil vessel | R
The $2 Million Coal Mine That Might Hold a $37 Billion Treasure | W
November 8 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Captain America
The US economy has remained remarkably strong in the face of the Fed’s attempts to tame inflation at the economy’s expense. So far, so good: Inflation has been moderating nicely but not bringing the economy down with it. Today, we review the major reasons for the US economy’s resilience. … In contrast, the global economy is weak as evidenced by the plunge in oil prices. Record US oil production has helped to lower oil prices from their September peak. ... And: Joe looks at analysts’ estimate revisions activity in the wake of a strong Q3. Despite that strength, Q4 estimates are dropping at rates faster than usual.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 6.
Markets
Market timing doesn't work: S&P 500 14% rally explained by just 8 days | C
October suddenly looks like a bad bond dream | R
Hoisington’s Hunt Says the Bond Rally Is Just Getting Started | B
UBS resumes selling the bonds at the heart of Credit Suisse controversy | C
Oil Declines Again as Demand Outlook Flashes Bearish Signs
Gold dips as Powell speech takes centre stage; palladium hits 5-yr low | R
Central banks
Why the Fed Shouldn’t Get Credit for the Fall in Inflation | W
US
Right Now Is a Bad Time to Spend Money | W
US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Tumbles by Most in More Than a Year | B
Mortgage rates plunge and demand finally inches back | C
Hot Desking Is Next Risk to Office Property Market, Morgan Stanley Says | B
Want a four-day workweek? You’re not alone | NN
Europe
Europe's record gas stocks start to pressure prices | R
China
China Is Becoming a Problem for Investors | W
Exclusive: China authorities ask Ping An to take controlling stake in Country Garden | R
Geopolitics & trade
Israel Says Its Forces Have Entered ‘Heart’ of Gaza City Amid War With Hamas | B
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict History: The Roots of the Israel-Hamas War | B
China and Russia Claim Moral High Ground Over Palestinian Deaths | W
Global Electric Car (EV) Market to Reshape Economies, Political Alliances | B
Industries & companies
Airlines: American Airlines Dangles $250,000 Bonuses to Poach FedEx and UPS Pilots | W
Health Care: Amazon to Offer Lower-Cost Primary Care to Prime Members in Latest Healthcare Push | W
Pharma: Bayer weighs break-up options as management job cuts loom | R
Railroads: Delays in Acela Upgrade Have Cost Amtrak $140 Million…and Counting | W
Artificial Intelligence
Opinion | In Regulating A.I., the Government May Be Doing Too Much. And Too Little. | N
November 7 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: What’s Next? Pickleball!
Back and forth we expect the bond and stock markets to bounce for the foreseeable future as the bulls and bears in each market alternate control. We see the 10-year Treasury bond yield ending the year at 4.50% and the S&P 500 at 4600. Next year, we expect continued volleying between bulls and bears to keep the bond yield rangebound between 4.00% and 5.00% and the S&P 500 rising to 5400 by year-end. … As for the economy, we think surprisingly strong economic growth is likely next year, led by a productivity boom that continues for the remainder of the decade—our “Roaring 2020s” scenario taking hold at last.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 6.
Markets
Growing Italy risk puts equities at deepest discount in 35 years | R
Russia’s Crude Oil Exports are Running Close to a Four-Month High | B
Global
Global rice markets are in crisis amid 'artificial' shortage | C
Central banks
Fed Inflation Fight Not Over, to Do More If Needed: Neel Kashkari | B
Central banks look to have hit peak rates. Here's how markets think they'll come down | C
US
Why the U.S. hasn't updated coins and notes | C
Europe
Flights to Europe Are Becoming Cheap Again | W
French prosecutors probing Sanofi over possible market manipulation | C
China
IMF upgrades China's 2023, 2024 GDP growth forecasts | R
China’s Exports Tumble Again in Fresh Sign of Economic Trouble | W
Geopolitics & trade
Netanyahu Says Israel Will Control Gaza Security Indefinitely | W
Japanese Automakers Face Stay-or-Go Decision in China | W
Opinion | The U.S. Can Counter China’s Control of Minerals for the Energy Transition | N
Industries & companies
Airlines: Your Pilot Has a New Job—and a Bigger Plane to Fly | W
Banks: Big Banks Cook Up New Way to Unload Risk | W
Financials: Premarket stocks: How Goldman Sachs is navigating a more turbulent world | NN
Financials: UBS’s Takeover of Credit Suisse Was a Steal. Now Comes the Bumpy Part. | W
Pharma: How Ozempic Maker Novo Nordisk’s Very Danish Capitalism Fueled Its Success, and Its Stumbles | W
Corporate finance
Private Equity Wants More US Millionaires Invested in Funds | B
WeWork files for bankruptcy | C
Artificial Intelligence
AI negotiates legal contract without humans involved for first time | C
I've Worked With AI for Months. Here Are 8 Lessons I've Learned | W
Elon Musk Unveils ‘Grok,’ an AI Bot That Combines Snark and Lofty Ambitions | W
Is It OK for Students to Use ChatGPT? More Teachers Say Yes | W
November 6 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Throwing Caution To The Wind
Last week brought epic rallies in both the stock and bond markets. We think the stock market’s correction is over and that the S&P 500 is back on track to end the year at 4600. All 11 sectors gained ground last week, many enjoying their best week in nearly a year. … As for the bond market rally that carried the 10-year Treasury bond yield down to a more comfortable distance from 5.00%, the wave of buying had multiple drivers. Nevertheless, beware of the Bond Vigilantes. … Also: Recent economic news supports our Immaculate Disinflation theory.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 30.
Markets
Stock and Bond Rallies Could Thwart hopes for Rate Cuts | BR
Markets think interest rates could stay high for a decade or more | E
Markets Got an Unexpected Boost From Washington. Will It Mark a Turning Point? | W
Wealth Is Shifting. To Cope, Individuals Need to Start Investing Like Institutions. | BR
Russia to continue voluntary cut of oil and oil product exports until year-end | R
Global
The world economy is defying gravity. That cannot last | E
US
Breaking Down the Best Earnings Quarter in a Year | W
Housing Crisis Gets Worse for Americans on Mortgage Lock-In Effect | B
Cash Buyers Are Giving the Luxury Home Market a Major Pick-Me-Up | Mansion Global
The Fun Things in Life Are Giving Us Buyer’s Remorse | W
RMDs: These Are the New Rules About Required Withdrawals From IRAs | BR
Work Absences Due to Child Care Problems Jumped in October | BR
Japan
Japan Has Fallen Far Behind in the Chipmaking Business. It’s Plotting a Comeback. | BR
Industries & companies
Autos: GM expected to invest $13 billion in U.S. plants under new UAW deal | C
Pharma: Vertex Pain Pill Could Replace Opioids. It’s an Opportunity for Investors. | BR
Retail: Amazon and Walmart’s Surprising Hiring Plans for the Holidays | BR
Tech: Apple, Tesla Give Cautious Outlooks as Big Tech Growth Status in Doubt | B
Artificial Intelligence
AI Is About to Remake the PC. Dell, HP Stock Look Like Buys. | BR
November 4 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Burritos, Stocks & Hydrogen
Packaged and fast food companies keep raising their prices, but consumers at nearly all income levels aren’t blinking at paying more. That was a common theme Jackie heard in the Q3 earnings calls of McDonald’s, Chipotle, and Unilever. … Also: What a difference a date makes! The stock market’s leaders and laggards among sectors over the first seven months of the year—prior to the S&P 500’s July 31 peak—bear little resemblance to those since July 31; former laggards-turned-leaders Health Care and Energy are cases in point … And: The discovery that large stores of pure hydrogen exist in nature holds exciting potential for powering the planet without polluting it.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 30.
Markets
Dow pops more than 200 points on Friday to cap the best week for stocks so far this year | C
Stocks, Bonds, Credit See Biggest Weekly Cumulative Gain Since November 2022 | B
US
The Improbably Strong Economy | W
Sharp U.S. Hiring Slowdown Signals Cooling Economy Ahead | W
Gen Z leans into soft saving, less focused on retirement | C
Geopolitics & trade
China Accuses US of Encouraging Provocations in South China Sea | B
Australia PM says China visit 'very positive' for bilateral relations | R
Hamas Has Deadlier Weapons Than the Last Time Israel Invaded Gaza | W
An Israeli ‘Pause’ Would Help Hamas | W
Industries & companies
Materials: Rainfall plays key role in capping Chinese aluminium capacity | R
Tech: One of the World’s Biggest Diamonds Could Be Key to Some of the World’s Fastest Microchips | W
Tobacco: Big Tobacco Can No Longer Name Its Price | W
Wireless: Carriers Look to Offer Fast-Lane Access on 5G Networks | W
Beyond markets
Daylight-Saving Time Is Ending. What to Know | W
November 3 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Burritos, Stocks & Hydrogen
Packaged and fast food companies keep raising their prices, but consumers at nearly all income levels aren’t blinking at paying more. That was a common theme Jackie heard in the Q3 earnings calls of McDonald’s, Chipotle, and Unilever. … Also: What a difference a date makes! The stock market’s leaders and laggards among sectors over the first seven months of the year—prior to the S&P 500’s July 31 peak—bear little resemblance to those since July 31; former laggards-turned-leaders Health Care and Energy are cases in point … And: The discovery that large stores of pure hydrogen exist in nature holds exciting potential for powering the planet without polluting it.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 30.
Markets
Three Concerns Facing Markets: Economy, Government Spending, the Fed | W
US
Jobs report October 2023: U.S. payrolls increased by 150,000 in October, less than expected | C
We have seen (and solved) Bidenomics before | The Hill
Who’s Running for President in 2024? Meet the Candidates | W
200,000 students accepted to college under direct admissions program | C
Europe
Hamburg skyscraper construction halted in grim sign for German property sector | R
India
India's New Delhi blanketed by toxic haze, world's most polluted city again | R
Geopolitics & trade
It’s U.S. vs. China in an Increasingly Divided World Economy | W
China, U.S. to Meet for Rare Nuclear Arms-Control Talks | W
China warms to U.S. chipmaker Micron, as tensions with Washington ease | R
Exclusive: South Korea lining up banks to help finance $22 billion arms sale to Poland | R
Is Globalization in Decline? A New Number Contradicts the Consensus | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: The Astrophysicist Who Has a Better Way to Board Airplanes | W
Retail: Shoplifting and retail theft are a problem, and companies are complicit | Vox
Shipping: Shipping giant Maersk announces 10,000 job cuts, warns of volatility | C
Tech: Investors Aren’t Buying Apple’s New iPhone | W
Artificial Intelligence
Biden's unconstitutional AI order | Washington Examiner
Biden quietly tapped Obama to help shape his AI strategy | C
Is a Rogue AI Company Training Powerful AI on a Barge to Avoid U.S. Regulations? | Vice
Beyond markets
Elon Musk bought Twitter one year ago. Here’s everything he broke there. | Slate
Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty on all seven criminal fraud counts | C
Tesla boss Elon Musk says AI will create situation where no job is needed | C
November 2 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Burritos, Stocks & Hydrogen
Packaged and fast food companies keep raising their prices, but consumers at nearly all income levels aren’t blinking at paying more. That was a common theme Jackie heard in the Q3 earnings calls of McDonald’s, Chipotle, and Unilever. … Also: What a difference a date makes! The stock market’s leaders and laggards among sectors over the first seven months of the year—prior to the S&P 500’s July 31 peak—bear little resemblance to those since July 31; former laggards-turned-leaders Health Care and Energy are cases in point … And: The discovery that large stores of pure hydrogen exist in nature holds exciting potential for powering the planet without polluting it.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 30.
Markets
Stocks extend gains as yields slide, Dow jumps nearly 400 points | C
The ‘Ozempic Effect’ on Wall Street Has Gone Overboard | W
Central banks
Fed Takes Heart in a Supply-Side Boom | W
How Higher Interest Rates for Longer Can Be Good News for the Economy | W
US
Labor costs show surprise decline in the third quarter | C
US weekly jobless claims rise moderately; productivity surges in Q3 | R
The Way You Pay to Buy or Sell a Home Is About to Change | W
Europe
German power mix may get dirtier for 1st non-nuclear winter | R
China
China regulators probe liquidity stress that sent rates to record 50% - sources | R
Geopolitics & trade
China, U.S. to Meet for Rare Nuclear Arms-Control Talks | W
Putin withdraws Russia's ratification of global nuclear test ban treaty | R
US imposes sweeping new sanctions targeting Russia over war in Ukraine | R
Russia’s Wagner Group May Provide Air Defense Weapon to Hezbollah, U.S. Intel Says | W
How Hamas Defines Cease-Fire | W
Industries & companies
Autos: The UAW Beat Detroit. Tesla Will Be a Different Beast. | W
Autos: Toyota Recalls More Than 1.8 Million RAV4 SUVs Over Battery Fire Risk | W
Retail: Target CEO says shoppers are pulling back, even on groceries | C
Corporate finance
These Oil Giants Don’t Seem Tempted by Merger Mania | W
Artificial Intelligence
Biden AI executive order: Industry, civil rights, labor groups react | C
Beyond markets
Elon Musk told Joe Rogan he bought Twitter to stop 'extinctionist' mind virus | C
Hunter Biden slams GOP, media for attacks on him and president | C
November 1 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Other Central Bankers & The MegaCap-8, Again
Today, Melissa reviews how monetary policies are being conducted outside the US. Japan’s BOJ has given itself more latitude in policy decisions, retracting a commitment to retain its long-standing ultra-easy stance and widening its target interest-rate range. … China’s PBOC and central government have been working to stimulate its economy by numerous means. ... Europe’s ECB finally paused its rate-hiking recently after a 10-hike streak and trimmed its balance-sheet assets; no more rate hikes or reductions are likely for a while. … Also: Joe updates data on the MegaCap-8 stocks’ growing share of the S&P 500.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 30.
Markets
Wall St holds gains as Fed keeps rates steady | R
Wavering ‘Magnificent Seven’ draw bargain-hunters amid U.S. stock sell-off | R
Why Investors Are Trading US Treasury Bonds, Spiking Volatility in Market | B
Central banks
Fed keeps rates unchanged, acknowledges economy is 'strong' | R
Fed Holds Rates Steady but Keeps Door Open to Another Hike | W
Fed meeting: Here's what changed in the new statement | C
5 Key Takeaways From Fed November 2023 Decision | B
US
The Economy Is Great. Why Are Americans in Such a Rotten Mood? | W
Treasury details plans to step up size of bond sales to manage growing debt load and higher rates | C
US Inflation Debt Sales Rise to Keep Pace With Treasury Market | B
US job openings stay elevated, layoffs hit nine-month low | R
US Job Openings Unexpectedly Rise a Second Month to 9.6 Million | B
China
Beware a Chinese Fall Stall | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Toyota Gives Most U.S. Auto-Factory Workers 9% Pay Bump Following UAW Gains in Detroit | W
Real Estate: How to Buy Real Estate: Creative Ways to Invest in Property Amid High Prices | B
Tech: After a Boom and Bust, the Chip Industry Is Regaining Its Health | W
Artificial Intelligence
‘Take Science Fiction Seriously’: World Leaders Sound Alarm on AI | W
October 31 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Trick Or Treat?
Treat: Consumers’ soaring net worth since the pandemic has reduced their need to save, in our opinion. That might explain why consumer spending has been resilient despite hard-landers’ warnings that households were depleting their excess saving and would have to retrench by now. … Treat: Inflation is still on course to fall to the Fed’s 2.0% target. … Trick: The Treasury might spook investors again on Wednesday when it details its next round of financing needs.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 30.
Markets
Markets on board with Fed's higher for longer policy, CNBC survey | C
U.S. Treasury yields ahead of Fed meeting kick-off | C
How This Year’s Hottest Investment Could End Up Costing You | W
Global
The U.S. and European Economies Are Diverging | W
Central banks
The Fed Can Wait | W
US
U.S. Home Prices Rose to Record in August | W
What the rise of homeowners associations means for Americans | C
62% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck amid inflation | C
Workers Keep Getting Big Raises. That’s an Issue for the Fed | W
Wages boost US labor costs in third quarter | R
China
China’s Economy Shows Fresh Signs of Slowing | W
Evergrande will struggle to revive its debt restructuring plan | R
Tracking the emissions impact of China's economic recovery | R
Europe
Euro zone inflation and growth fall as ECB hikes bite | R
Eurozone Inflation Drops Sharply Amid Energy Deflation, Economic Contraction | W
Geopolitics & trade
The Latest Tech Caught in the U.S.-China Trade War: Lasers | W
Israel Hits Hamas Tunnels as Ground Offensive Intensifies | W
Democrats Risk Long-Lasting Rift Over Israel-Hamas War | W
Industries & companies
Autos: UAW: Winners and losers of 2023 talks with GM, Ford, Stellantis | C
Autos: Three Young Activists Who Never Worked in an Auto Factory Helped Deliver Huge Win for the UAW | W
Autos: Toyota Aims to Meet Hybrid Demand With New U.S. Plant Investment | W
Commercial Real Estate: The Money Has Stopped Flowing in Commercial Real Estate | W
Energy: Why some 'clean' hydrogen hubs in the U.S. plan to use natural gas | C
Tech: Apple announces new M3 chips, cuts price of entry-level MacBook Pro | C
Tech: Microsoft’s Hotly Anticipated Generative AI Work Assistant Set to Debut | W
Corporate finance
Zombie firm bankruptcies amid Fed interest rate hikes | C
US seeks to block JetBlue's Spirit Airlines deal at trial | R
Why Exxon and Chevron’s Deals Leave Investors Cold | W
Beyond markets
Sam Bankman-Fried has one more shot at avoiding prison as trial wraps | C
October 30 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Geopolitics, GDP & Inflation
We recently raised our subjective odds of a US recession before year-end 2024 from 25% to 35% mostly because the geopolitical risks continue to escalate. We see two potential scenarios that could result in a recession, but they don’t warrant raising our recession odds at this time. The US economy remains resilient; we review recent areas of strength. … Also: Further escalation of war in the Middle East could bring unsettling uncertainty to the stock market against a backdrop of well known headwinds and a troubled Chinese economy. … And: We review the latest inflation news. We don’t expect the Fed to surprise markets with a rate hike this week.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 23.
Markets
Where Is the Stock Market Headed? Big Money Pros Weigh In. | BR
Middle East War Could Cause Oil Price Shock, World Bank Warns | N
The Big Bond Market Event Wednesday Is at Treasury, Not the Fed | B
US 'term premium' shock may need T-bill surprise | R
Should You Buy Bonds Now? Yes, Here’s Why. | BR
Investors Are Worried About Government Spending. That’s No Reason to Avoid Bonds. | BR
Central banks
Higher Bond Yields Could End the Fed’s Historic Rate Rises | W
Fed’s Forecasts Look to Fairy Tales, One Economist Says | BR
Does Strong Growth Fuel Inflation? Fed Debates Whether Old Model Still Applies | W
Middle-Class Americans Are Rattled by Fed’s Fight Against Inflation | B
US
The Sales Pitch for an 8% Mortgage: Buy Now, Refinance Later—for Free | W
US second home sales slide in pandemic-era vacation hot spots | R
What 'radically different' wage growth forecast for 2024 means for you | C
Workers Are Doing Less Work for the Same Pay | W
Americans Can’t Stop Spending. Five Reasons Why. | W
Never Mind the 1%. Mini-Millionaires Are Where Wealth Is Growing Fastest. | W
Mental Health Issues Are Growing. They Could Hobble the Economy | BR
China
China’s Age of Malaise | The New Yorker
How Far Is China’s Slowdown Spreading? Ask a Dairy Farmer 6,000 Miles Away | W
For China, Bullying Apple Suppliers Could Backfire Badly | W
Europe
German economy shrinks slightly in Q3 | R
Geopolitics & trade
American power: indispensable or ineffective? | E
Israel-Hamas War News: Airstrike in Syria, Clashes in West bank, Gaza Ground War | B
Industries & companies
Autos: U.A.W. Says It Aims to Organize Nonunion Auto Plants | N
Autos: UAW-Ford deal includes $8.1B in investment, $5,000 ratification bonus | C
Autos: Detroit Is Paying Up to End the UAW Strike. Now Carmakers Will Live With the Costs. | W
Health Care: Insurers Spar With Biden Administration Over Coverage for Mental-Health Care | W
Pharma: Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro Drug Has Big Potential. How to Play the Stock. | BR
Tech: Meta Pauses Ads for Users Under 18 in Europe as It Rolls Out Subscriptions | W
Corporate finance
Realty Income to Buy Spirit Realty Capital in $9.3 Billion Deal | W
Artificial Intelligence
Biden unveils U.S. government's first-ever AI executive order | C
Biden's AI Executive Order Imposes Safety, Security Measures on Emerging Tech | B
Can ChatGPT Replace Your Financial Adviser? Not Yet. But Wait. | W
Crypto
The Hunt for Crypto’s Most Famous Fugitive. ‘Everyone Is Looking for Me.’ | W
October 28 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumer Spending, China & Robots
Is the consumer spending pendulum swinging back to bingeing on goods from splurging on services? Jackie sees a few nascent signs pointing to that possibility. … Also: The Chinese government has been trying to pull China’s economy up by its bootstraps with new infrastructure projects, but critics say the initiatives are too small to make much difference. Property developers remain distressed, and economic activity is likely to remain anemic. … And: In our Disruptive Technologies spotlight are humanoid robots. We look at how they’re being deployed today and what they may be used for in the future.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 23.
Markets
Dow drops more than 350 points to end brutal week, S&P 500 closes in correction territory | C
Wall St Week Ahead Frazzled U.S. stock investors eye frothy Treasury market as Fed looms | R
Market Turns Vicious on Profit Misses in Tough Earnings Season | B
US
The shaky stock market is making Americans feel uneasy | NN
Mortgage Rates for US Homes Are Surging Toward 8% and Crushing Market | B
Americans' median net worth by age | C
Conservatives Won the Fight for House Speaker. Did They Also Put the GOP Majority at Risk? | W
Grand Old Party: How Aging Makes You More Conservative | W
With TikTok, Gen Z Is the Master of Comedic Deflection | B
Europe
Italy to raise taxes for flat owners doing multiple short-term rentals | R
China
What China's slow-motion property crisis means for the global economy | C
Geopolitics & trade
Israel Says It Has Killed a Planner of the Oct. 7 Attacks | W
Israel-Gaza War: Israel Ratchets Up Ground Operations After Heavy Bombardments | B
Will the Israel-Hamas War Escalate? Iran, Hezbollah and Syria Pose Risk | B
China, U.S. Look to a Biden-Xi Summit While Wrestling Tensions | W
US halts exports of most civilian firearms for 90 days | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Toyota, the World’s Biggest Carmaker, Made a Huge Bet on Tech. It Went Wrong Fast. | W
Artificial Intelligence
Stacking Boxes? Treating Cancer? AI Needs to Learn Physics First | W
Corporate finance
Exxon and Chevron Megadeals Reveal Why Days of Easy Oil Are Over | B
Beyond markets
Elon Musk’s Outlook on Our Future Turns Dour | W
Taylor Swift has entered her billionaire era | C
UChicago psychologist: Thinking in foreign language is good for brain | C
October 27 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumer Spending, China & Robots
Is the consumer spending pendulum swinging back to bingeing on goods from splurging on services? Jackie sees a few nascent signs pointing to that possibility. … Also: The Chinese government has been trying to pull China’s economy up by its bootstraps with new infrastructure projects, but critics say the initiatives are too small to make much difference. Property developers remain distressed, and economic activity is likely to remain anemic. … And: In our Disruptive Technologies spotlight are humanoid robots. We look at how they’re being deployed today and what they may be used for in the future.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 23.
Markets
Global bond rout looks 'tremendously dangerous' for stocks, hedge fund manager warns | C
Global
Global business cycle is in transition | R
Central banks
European Central Bank Ends Record Run of Rate Increases | W
BOJ meets as rising yields, inflation test cap | R
Key Fed inflation gauge rose 0.3% as expected in September; spending tops estimate | C
Inflation Trends Likely to Keep Fed Rate-Hike Pause on Track | W
US
U.S. Economy Grew a Strong 4.9%, Driven by Consumer Spree That May Not Last | W
New Speaker Mike Johnson’s To-Do List: A Looming Funding Deadline and Israel, Ukraine Aid | W
Donald Trump’s reign of tariffs | The Hill
Never Mind the 1%. Mini-Millionaires Are Where Wealth Is Growing Fastest. | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. Strikes Syrian Militias as Israel Makes Fresh Incursion Into Gaza | W
China, U.S. Look to a Biden-Xi Summit While Wrestling Tensions | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Ford’s Cost Problem Isn’t Just About EVs | W
Consumer: Amazon Beefs Up Bottom Line as AI Battle Shapes Up | W
Financials: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon to Sell One Million Shares | W
Pharma: Healthcare companies counter investor worries over Wegovy effect | R
Retail: Shein to sell co-branded Forever 21 clothes online | C
Corporate finance
Last resort of bankruptcy is rising for small businesses across U.S. | C
Climate
The Latest On Global Warming Is … There Is No Global Warming | I&I
October 26 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumer Spending, China & Robots
Is the consumer spending pendulum swinging back to bingeing on goods from splurging on services? Jackie sees a few nascent signs pointing to that possibility. … Also: The Chinese government has been trying to pull China’s economy up by its bootstraps with new infrastructure projects, but critics say the initiatives are too small to make much difference. Property developers remain distressed, and economic activity is likely to remain anemic. … And: In our Disruptive Technologies spotlight are humanoid robots. We look at how they’re being deployed today and what they may be used for in the future.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 23.
Markets
Stock Market News Today: Dow Opens Higher, Meta Stock Price Falls; Amazon Earnings in Focus | W
Treasury just dropped a financial bomb, but Bidenomics means the worst is yet to come | FO
With Interest Rates Up, Get Ready for Financial Drama | W
US
U.S. Economy Grew at 4.9% Rate This Summer, Powered by Fast-Spending Americans | W
Consumers power US economy in third quarter | R
What Will the Economy Do for an Encore? | W
Recession vs. 'richsession: Why America's rich face economic headwinds | C
Trump’s Bad Week: Ex-Advisers Line Up Against Him | W
China
Xi Jinping Is Looking for Someone to Blame for China’s Property Bust | W
Geopolitics & trade
Investing in Space: The Pentagon sizes up China’s military strength | C
Industries & companies
Autos: Toyota Chairman Says People Are Finally Seeing the Reality About EVs | W
Energy: Are iron-flow batteries the solution to variable renewables? | R
Energy: High hopes for a smaller but more focused hydrogen economy | R
Technology
This company envisions a future where humanoid robots are as ubiquitous as smartphones | NN
Corporate finance
Jeep Maker Stellantis Bets on a Chinese EV Startup, but Is It the Right One? | W
Climate
Europe's wind power goal hits new snag: security | R
Beyond markets
CEO Morning Routines Are Bananas. So I Tried a Few. | W
October 25 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Earnings Here & There
The global economy is still growing despite geopolitical and monetary policy headwinds, though the pace of growth is slow, which October’s global PMI data confirm. … Looking at stock market data globally, we find strong forward revenues, earnings, and profit margin data for the All Country World MSCI, mostly attributable to the US MSCI; the data for Emerging Markets MSCI aren’t as strong. … In the US, record-high weekly forward revenues and forward earnings suggest the same for Q3’s results. … Also: Joe reports that analysts’ estimate revisions reflect equal numbers of rising and falling estimates.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 23.
Markets
Your ‘Set It and Forget It’ 401(k) Made You Rich. No More. | W
How the Highest Bond Yields in 16 Years Could Chill the Hot U.S. Economy | W
'Tipping point' in bond shock? | R
Analysis: China holds the key to Hong Kong's shrinking stock market | R
Central banks
Strongest US Economic Growth Since 2021 Puts Fed in Tough Spot | B
What Can the Fed Do About the Deficit? Nothing | W
Jamie Dimon rips central banks for being ‘100% dead wrong’ on economic forecasts | C
Jim Cramer says hold out on buying until next interest rate hike | C
US
New Normal or No Normal? How Economists Got It Wrong for 3 Years. | N
Beef prices are at record highs, and your steak is becoming pricier | C
How Did Biden Manage To Lose $300 Billion? | Issues & Insights
The Economic Forces Pushing Both Parents to Work | City Journal
China
China's new bonds to help economic recovery, official says, as budget deficit rises | R
Exclusive: China's cabinet curbs debt growth in 12 "high risk" regions - sources | R
China Signals No Tolerance for Sharp Slowdown With Rare Aid | B
Geopolitics & trade
Hamas: US Presses Gulf Allies To Help Stem Group's Fundraising | B
Israel-Hamas war: Economists fear disruption if conflict not contained | C
Israel-Hamas: IMF’s Georgieva Says Mideast War Brings More Jitters: FII Update | B
Weapons Flood Israel’s West Bank, Fueling Fears of New War Front | W
Industries & companies
Autos: UAW Calls Strike on One of GM’s Largest and Most-Profitable Factories | W
Autos: Honda, GM scrap plan to co-develop cheaper EVs | R
Energy: Exxon, Chevron Look to the West in an Increasingly Uncertain World | W
Climate
Why the Shine Has Come Off Clean-Energy Stocks | W
October 23 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: ‘Dangerous Times’
The Middle East crisis seems to be escalating into a regional war with US involvement, existential stakes, and global effects. We’re suspending our year-end target for the S&P 500 after it fell to its 200-day moving average on Friday in response to the geopolitical risks. We expect it to breach that level this week even if the bond yield declines. Yet geopolitical crises do tend to present long-term buying opportunities in stocks. The escalation of hostilities we expect prompts us to raise our odds of a US recession before year-end 2024 again, now to 35% from 30%. … Also: We update the bond market’s supply/demand situation, discuss the consumer-spending-employment spiral, and review the movie “Past Lives” (+).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 16.
Markets
Another Black Monday May Be Around the Corner | W
Why High Yields Make Bonds Better Investments Now | N
Morning Bid: Awaiting the bond-bashing abating | R
Central banks
Where's the Recession? The Inverted Yield Curve Is Looking Like a Mistake. | BR
US
Housing market is painful, ugly, anxious with 8% high rate | C
Rising Home Prices Can Be Bad for Retirees | BR
This Real Estate Market Looks Distressed. Home Prices Are Already Falling. | BR
Food Is on Sale Again. You Might Still Have Sticker Shock. | W
America’s Downtowns Are Empty. Fixing Them Will Be Expensive. | W
House Republicans say the speaker race stalemate is "embarrassing" | C
Europe
As U.S. Debt Surges, Europe Brings Its Own Under Control | W
Marine Le Pen poses a greater threat than Giorgia Meloni | E
China
China Tightens Controls on Graphite. The Hunt Is On for New Supplies. | BR
Industries & companies
Airlines: Airlines, Regulators Weigh More Cockpit Safety Alerts After Close Calls on Runways | W
Autos: Buy BMW Stock. Shares Could Rise 41% on Its Stealth EV Program. | BR
Banks: Why America’s banks need more capital | E
Media: Taylor Swift Concert Film and ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ Top Weekend Box Office | W
Retail: How Walmart became America’s largest grocer | C
Geopolitics & trade
Israel Intensifies Bombing on Multiple Fronts, Prepares for Gaza Ground Operation | W
Video Analysis Shows Gaza Hospital Hit By Failed Rocket Meant for Israel | W
Only America can save Israel and Gaza from greater catastrophe | E
Israel’s four unpalatable options for Gaza’s long-term future | E
Russia's Gazprom to supply extra gas to Hungary and China this year | R
Xi Jinping wants to be loved by the global south | E
Corporate finance
Paramount, Shari Redstone might have missed deal window | C
Artificial Intelligence
How Does AI ‘Think’? We Are Only Starting to Understand That | W
How to make Britain’s health service AI-ready | E
Climate
The unspoken environmental impact of meat: Hogging all the land. | Vox
October 21 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Bank Earnings, CO2 & The Oceans
Three big banks have produced Q3 earnings surprises, beating consensus expectations and allaying fears about nonperforming real estate loans, declining deposits, and the pace of consumer spending. Jackie summarizes the key takeaways from the conference calls of JPMorgan, Bank of America, and PNC Financial Services, including what proposed Basel III Endgame regulations might mean for each. … And in our Disruptive Technologies segment: The ocean may hold the key to slowing climate change. Researchers in startups and academia are finding ways to ramp up the ocean’s CO2 absorption capacity.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 16.
Markets
Dow closes nearly 300 points lower after 10-year Treasury yield tops 5% for the first time since 2007 | C
Bond Market’s Bad Tidings Start to Overwhelm Miracle Stock Rally | B
Buying a burst bubble, bruised bond bulls wince | R
Central banks
Jerome Powell Signals Fed Will Extend Interest-Rate Pause | W
Transcript: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker Discusses the Economic Outlook | W
What Is ‘Normal’ for Interest Rates? | Morningstar
Global
What landing? Global economy's twin engines rev up | R
US
Home Sales at Lowest Point Since 2010 as High Mortgage Rates Squeeze Market | W
US budget gap soars to $1.7 trillion, largest outside COVID era | R
The Federal Deficit Is Growing. This Is Why. | N
Geopolitics & trade
Gaza Strip Future: US, Israel Weigh a Future Without Hamas | B
Two American Hostages Released as U.S. Pressures Israel to Delay Gaza Invasion | W
Miners race to realise graphite projects as China controls exports | R
Biden seeks $105 billion for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, border | C
U.S. and Europe Struggle to Put Trump-Era Tariffs Behind Them | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Tesla stock ends the week down 15%, the worst performance of the year | C
Autos: UAW strikes: Union's Fain says 'more to be won' despite record offers | C
Consumer: Amazon Confronts a New Rival: TikTok | W
October 20 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Bank Earnings, CO2 & The Oceans
Three big banks have produced Q3 earnings surprises, beating consensus expectations and allaying fears about nonperforming real estate loans, declining deposits, and the pace of consumer spending. Jackie summarizes the key takeaways from the conference calls of JPMorgan, Bank of America, and PNC Financial Services, including what proposed Basel III Endgame regulations might mean for each. … And in our Disruptive Technologies segment: The ocean may hold the key to slowing climate change. Researchers in startups and academia are finding ways to ramp up the ocean’s CO2 absorption capacity.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 16.
Markets
There’s a Reason This Bull Market Feels So Weird | W
10-year Treasury yield retreats after rising to 5% | C
How Five Investors Win in a World of Higher Interest Rates | W
Central banks
Powell Says Fed ‘Proceeding Carefully,’ Leaves Door Open to Rate Hike | B
Powell Says Strong Economic Data ‘Could Warrant’ Higher Rates | N
Powell says inflation is still too high and lower economic growth is likely needed to bring it down | C
Fed’s Goolsbee Hopeful US Can Avoid Recession Despite Rate Hikes | B
US
Economists Boost US Growth Projections, Reduce Recession Odds | B
Heating Your Home Should Cost Less This Winter—Unless You Live in These States | W
China
China, world's top graphite producer, to curb exports of key battery material | R
Geopolitics & trade
Israel-Hamas War Latest News Updates on October 20: Biden's Speech, Oil Rises | B
Israel Evacuates City Near Lebanon Border as It Hits Scores of Targets in Gaza | W
China weighs options to blunt U.S. sanctions in a Taiwan conflict | R
US Envoy Nicholas Burns Calls on China to Denounce Hamas | B
Industries & companies
Energy: Solar stocks tumble to 3-year low as Solaredge drops 25% on demand warning | C
Financials: Big banks cut thousands of jobs, more layoffs coming | C
Media: Elon Musk: X, formerly Twitter, to launch two new subscription tiers | C
Pharma: Ozempic Maker is Testing Weight-Loss Drugs For Kids | B
Pharma: Gray Market for Weight Loss Drug Retatrutide Spreads Online Years Ahead of FDA Approvals | W
Artificial Intelligence
Pressure to adopt AI grows for leaders across industries, study finds | C
Climate
China and India struggle to curb fossil fuels | R
Beyond markets
America needs a grand strategy for outer space | The Hill
October 19 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Bank Earnings, CO2 & The Oceans
Three big banks have produced Q3 earnings surprises, beating consensus expectations and allaying fears about nonperforming real estate loans, declining deposits, and the pace of consumer spending. Jackie summarizes the key takeaways from the conference calls of JPMorgan, Bank of America, and PNC Financial Services, including what proposed Basel III Endgame regulations might mean for each. … And in our Disruptive Technologies segment: The ocean may hold the key to slowing climate change. Researchers in startups and academia are finding ways to ramp up the ocean’s CO2 absorption capacity.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 16.
Markets
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Tops 4.9% | W
Treasury Market's New Math Upends Responses to ‘Fog of War’: Surveillance | B
Zinc market shifts to oversupply but where's the metal? | R
Central banks
Fed Chair Powell to deliver key speech Thursday. Here's what to expect | C
US
30-year fixed mortgage rate just hit 8% for the first time since 2000 | C
Household Net Worth Surged After the Pandemic Hit | W
China
China Bet It All on Real Estate. Now Its Economy Is Paying the Price. | N
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. Says Intelligence Shows Islamic Jihad Militants Behind Gaza Hospital Blast | W
Biden will seek 'unprecedented' Israel aid package | C
Egypt to Allow Aid Into Gaza, Biden Says | B
Israel-Hamas War: India Can't Float Above Mideast Fray | B
Industries & companies
Airlines: Flight Delays and Other Uncertainties Slow Business Travel’s Rebound | W
Airlines: Delta walks back some changes to Sky Club access, loyalty program | C
Airlines: United Airlines to debut new boarding order to save time | C
Autos: Ford says US fuel economy plan would cause automaker 'economic hardship' | R
Media: Disney gives investors a look at ESPN financials | C
Media: Netflix Plans Price Increase as Password-Sharing Crackdown Boosts Subscriber Growth | W
Media: Netflix returns to growth mode | C
Pharma: Pfizer to price Covid drug Paxlovid at $1,390 per course | C
Corporate finance
OpenAI Is in Talks to Sell Shares at an $86 Billion Valuation | B
Universal Music sues Anthropic for copyright infringement over lyrics | C
Beyond markets
New ‘brain atlas’ maps the highly complex organ in dazzling detail | WP
October 18 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Rolling Recovery
The rolling recession that struck goods producers and distributors in early 2021 has ended, and the goods sector is now enjoying a rolling recovery, as stronger-than-expected retail sales and industrial production data attest. Consumers are shopping with gusto and increasingly on stuff; they’re not about to retrench as some hard-landers expect. … Likewise emerging from a recession are S&P 500 companies’ earnings, which may have hit a record high in Q3 along with their revenues. … And: Joe compares how various style indexes have performed since the S&P 500’s July 31 bottom as well as reviews the aggregate S&P 500 earnings data from early reporters and checks in on the MegaCap-8.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 16.
Markets
Wall Street’s Latest Obsession Is an Unknowable Number | W
Brent hits $93 as Middle East strife heightens supply concerns | R
Central banks
Why One Fed Official Is Ready to Stop Raising Rates | W
US
Mortgage demand falls to the lowest level since 1995 as interest rates near 8% | C
A Higher Monthly Payment, but Less Square Footage | N
Roaring US economy and foreign murk feeds home bias | R
Health Inflation’s Big Hike This Year, in Charts | W
The economic impact of the ‘golden years’ is just beginning | The Hill
China
China's Q3 GDP growth shows economic recovery gaining traction | R
China’s Strong GDP Report Shows Housing Remains a Big Problem | B
China’s Economy Gets Boost From Stimulus, but Headwinds Grow | W
China’s Country Garden Was Given a Second Chance to Make a Bond Payment. It Failed. | W
Geopolitics & trade
Israel, Hamas, and 30 Million Barrels of Oil | City Journal
Israel-Hamas War: No One Can Find a Way Out | B
Biden Visits Israel Seeking to Salvage Trip After Deadly Gaza Hospital Blast | B
Biden Backs Israel Over Gaza Hospital Blast | W
Putin praises 'dear friend' Xi, pitches Russia's Northern Sea route | R
Industries & companies
Autos: GM to delay EV truck production at Michigan plant | C
Commercial Real Estate: Prologis Says Industrial-Property Demand Remains Resilient | W
Logistics: Amazon Introducing Warehouse Overhaul With Robotics to Speed Deliveries | W
Media: X Is Testing $1 Annual Fee in New Zealand, Philippines to Fight Spam | W
Pharma: GLP-1 Drug Benefits Like Ozempic Go Beyond Weight Loss | B
Retail: Walmart beefs up online marketplace in Amazon challenge | C
Tech: Apple supplier Foxconn to focus on specialty tech not cutting-edge chips | C
Tech: Foxconn and Nvidia team up to build 'AI factories' | R
Corporate finance
Lina Khan's rise was heralded as an antitrust revolution. Now she has to pull it off | NN
Climate
Stockholm bans diesel and gas cars from driving downtown starting 2025 | C
Shipping: Going green will add to inflation 'no question' says CEO | C
October 17 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: It’s Different This Time
Today, we compare the current economic and financial environment with those of three past periods—the late 1970s, early 2000s, and mid-2000s. Today’s environment resembles the other three in that easy credit conditions fueled price and/or asset inflation, which led to tightening of credit conditions. In the past periods, that set off economywide credit crunches and recessions that moderated inflation. This time is different: No economywide recession is forthcoming, yet inflation is moderating anyway. The most important difference about this period, however, is that productivity growth is unlikely to collapse but to boom throughout the rest of this decade.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 16.
Markets
Stocks close higher, Dow rallies 300 points as optimism over earnings outweighs higher rates | C
Long-End Treasuries Fluctuate by Most Since 2020 Pandemic Onset | B
Bonds Have Been Awful Investments. It’s a Good Time to Buy. | N
US, Venezuela to announce oil sanctions deal on Tuesday -report | R
Investors dumped oil among fastest rates in last decade | R
More Chinese companies vow share buybacks as market sags further | R
US
If the Economy Is So Strong, Why Are Consumer Stocks Tanking? | W
This Inflation Report Won’t Let the Fed Declare Victory | W
It’s Getting Too Expensive to Have Fun | W
Home Sales on Track for Slowest Year Since Housing Bust | W
53% of Gen Z see high cost of living as barrier to financial success | C
China
China's robust imports of major commodities question weak economy view | R
Chinese Corporate Borrowing Slumped in Q3, According to China Beige Book | B
Country Garden's entire offshore debt to be in default if Tuesday payment not made | R
The Scenarios China Evergrande Group Would Face in a Potential Liquidation | B
Geopolitics & trade
Israel-Hamas war: How geography could shape a ground incursion in Gaza | C
Biden to Visit Israel as U.S. Push for Border Opening Stalls | W
How the Israel-Hamas War Is Tilting the Global Power Balance in Favor of Russia, China | W
How Singapore Can Adapt in a Time of US-China Stress, Climate Change | B
Industries & companies
Autos: Ford, UAW leaders spar as auto strike costs rise | R
Autos: Automakers blast US plan to hike fuel efficiency rules | R
Consumer: Tyson Foods workers, activists protest child labor in US meat sector | R
Financials: Goldman Sachs Wants Out of Consumer Lending. Employees Say It Can’t Happen Fast Enough. | W
Media: Taylor Swift Eras Tour box office: Second best October open | C
Media: AMC’s Taylor Swift deal fulfills theater chain’s wildest dreams and here’s how | FO
Corporate finance
Exxon Mobil Closing In on Megadeal With Shale Driller Pioneer | W
Technology
Sweetgreen Hires Kale-Shooting Robots to Speed Up Service | W
Memory-Chip Stocks Can Ride the AI Gravy Train, Too | W
AI Could Spur an Economic Boom. Humans Are in the Way. | W
No company is immune from cyberattacks | The Hill
October 16 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: All About Inflation
To answer whether the latest bout of inflation in general will prove persistent or transitory, we must look deeper than the headline rate. Core rates exclude energy and food, but shelter arguably should be excluded to get the answer, as it too is still distorted by temporary pandemic-related factors. The resounding message we hear from September’s CPI data: Both headline and core CPI rates—ex shelter—were 2.0% y/y in September. That’s the Fed’s target rate (albeit for the PCED). For us, that’s confirmation enough that inflation is moderating. It’s transitory, not persistent. Then again, some will see signs of persistent inflation in the data details. ... And: Dr. Ed reviews “Somewhere in Queens” (+).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 9.
Markets
US oil is back, and Exxon's $60 billion deal isn't the biggest signal | C
US
A Soft Landing in the U.S. Could Be Hard for Everyone Else | W
A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus | W
These Companies Are Being Squeezed by Higher Rates | W
U.S. Races to Expand Michigan Locks and Secure the Supply Chain | W
Why the U.S. Government Has $5 Billion in Bitcoin | W
Europe
Europe should not copy Bidenomics | E
Asia
China’s banks may be loaded up with hidden bad loans | E
Large parts of Asia are getting old before they get rich | E
Geopolitics & trade
Hamas’s attack was the bloodiest in Israel’s history | E
Will Israel’s agony and retribution end in chaos or stability? | E
Clashes Intensify Along Israel’s Northern Border as It Prepares Gaza Invasion | W
Gaza’s evacuees are racing south with nowhere safe to go | E
How the tech sector in Israel is navigating the war | NN
America and China should keep doing research together | E
Industries & companies
Autos: Automakers Have Big Hopes for EVs; Buyers Aren’t Cooperating | W
Banks: Big-Bank Profits May Be Higher, but for How Much Longer? | W
Media: Taylor Swift Eras Tour concert film opening weekend box office | C
Pharma: Obesity medicine euphoria warning: Experts tackle 'miracle drugs' | C
Wireless: How 5G Has, and Hasn't, Changed the World | W
Climate
Opinion | I Study Climate Change. The Data Is Telling Us Something New. | N
Artificial Intelligence
Want to Know the AI Lingo? Learn the Basics, From NLP to Neural Networks | W
October 14 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Banks, Biotech & Digital Money
Bank stocks have tanked this ytd, and analysts are pessimistic on earnings prospects. Valuations are so depressed that both the S&P 500 Regional Banks and S&P 500 Diversified Banks industry indexes sport forward P/Es below 10. But Jackie sees signs that Q3 earnings may not be as bad as feared, including a recent pickup in capital markets activity and adequate protections against slowly rising loan losses. … Also underperforming this year has been the S&P 500 Biotech industry. But brisk M&A activity may underpin these stocks. … And: China has rolled out a digital currency; the government has been incenting its uptake in numerous ways.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 9.
Markets
Stock Investors Embrace Bond Yield Surge in Dangerous Fed Bet | B
US
Persistent US services inflation dampens oil outlook | R
Deflation is the anti-inflation. Here's the September 2023 breakdown | C
Quiet cutting: Power balance in offices may be shifting back to bosses | C
Walgreens pharmacy staff could stage nationwide walkout | C
Should I Buy a House? Higher Interest Rates Make it Cheaper to Rent | B
Geopolitics & trade
Gaza Residents Brace for Israeli Offensive After Evacuation Demand | W
Civilians trapped in Gaza can't escape Israel's siege | C
Hezbollah joining conflict in neighboring Israel would be a 'gamechanger' | C
Israeli shelling strikes Lebanese army post after infiltration warning | R
Israel-Hamas War: After Gaza Strip Invasion, US Fears Lack of Strategy | B
US must be ready for simultaneous wars with China, Russia, report says | R
Why X and Meta face pressure from EU on Israel-Hamas war disinformation | C
Industries & companies
Autos: UAW Strikes for More Worker Pay as GM, Ford, Stellantis CEOs Paid $1 Billion | B
Pharma: US FDA approves Pfizer's inflammatory bowel disease drug | R
Beyond markets
Universal basic income actually isn’t that radical — it’s just good poverty policy | Vox
October 13 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Banks, Biotech & Digital Money
Bank stocks have tanked this ytd, and analysts are pessimistic on earnings prospects. Valuations are so depressed that both the S&P 500 Regional Banks and S&P 500 Diversified Banks industry indexes sport forward P/Es below 10. But Jackie sees signs that Q3 earnings may not be as bad as feared, including a recent pickup in capital markets activity and adequate protections against slowly rising loan losses. … Also underperforming this year has been the S&P 500 Biotech industry. But brisk M&A activity may underpin these stocks. … And: China has rolled out a digital currency; the government has been incenting its uptake in numerous ways.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 9.
Markets
Stocks Drop, Ending Winning Streak After Inflation Data | W
Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Backfires With $10 Billon Loss | B
Cooperman expects little from market, only watching individual stocks | C
Central banks
Housing remains a puzzle in Fed's inflation fight | R
Inflation Bump Won’t Be Enough to Unsettle Fed | W
Getting to 2% inflation won't be easy. This is what has to happen | C
US
Surging rents lift US consumer prices; underlying inflation grinding lower | R
Mortgage rates near 8%, low inventory: Homebuyers face tricky market | C
Joe Biden meets with Target CEO Brian Cornell and business leaders | C
Geopolitics & trade
Israel-Hamas War Live News Updates: Hamas Says Attack Was Planned for Two Years | W
For Palestinians Trapped in Gaza, There Is No Way Out | W
U.S. to Hold Off on Disbursing $6 Billion in Iran Oil Revenue Unfrozen in Prisoner Deal | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Ford-UAW contract talks: Automaker 'at the limit' of what it can offer | C
Banks: Bank earnings kick off after another period of rising rates, bad loans | C
Media: Disney Goes All In on Sports Betting | W
Media: Comcast, Disney hire Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan to value Hulu | C
Artificial Intelligence
‘A.I. Obama’ and Fake Newscasters: How A.I. Audio Is Swarming TikTok | N
Beyond markets
Accounting Graduates Drop By Highest Percentage in Years | W
We Can Now See the Brain Like Never Before | W
Google opening Visitor Experience cafe, retail store, event space | C
October 12 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Banks, Biotech & Digital Money
Bank stocks have tanked this ytd, and analysts are pessimistic on earnings prospects. Valuations are so depressed that both the S&P 500 Regional Banks and S&P 500 Diversified Banks industry indexes sport forward P/Es below 10. But Jackie sees signs that Q3 earnings may not be as bad as feared, including a recent pickup in capital markets activity and adequate protections against slowly rising loan losses. … Also underperforming this year has been the S&P 500 Biotech industry. But brisk M&A activity may underpin these stocks. … And: China has rolled out a digital currency; the government has been incenting its uptake in numerous ways.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 9.
Markets
U.S. Treasury yields: Treasury yields tick higher after fresh CPI report | C
Central banks
Fed Minutes Show Officials Divided on Future Rate Rise | W
Fed QT mix may be capping, not spurring, long yields | R
US
US CPI Report September 2023: Core Inflation Rises 0.3% for Second Month | B
US consumer prices rise on gasoline and shelter costs in September | R
2024 COLA: Social Security announces 3.2% cost-of-living adjustment | C
Immigration reform could be the answer to the falling U.S. birth rate | C
Manhattan Apartment Hunters Finally Get a Break With Falling Rents | B
The Federal Deficit Is Even Bigger Than It Looks | W
China
Iron ore buyers bet bad China property news is actually good | R
Geopolitics & trade
Israel Aims to Destroy Hamas in War | B
Israel Aims to Dismantle Hamas as Blinken Tries to Prevent Wider War | W
At Israel-Lebanon Border, Fears Grow of a Second Front | W
China bans new offshore brokerage accounts to prevent 'bypassing' of forex controls | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: Fake Parts Found on Boeing, Airbus Jets Plague Airlines | B
Autos: UAW launches key strike against Ford's Kentucky truck plant | C
Banks: Are High Rates Taking a Toll on Consumers? Bank Earnings Will Provide a Clue | W
Media: Theaters Prep for Taylor Swift ‘Eras Tour’ Movie Mayhem, Will ‘Let Them Break Most of Our Policies.’ | W
Technology
OpenAI plans major updates to lure developers with lower costs: Reuters | C
Corporate finance
Exxon’s One-Time Adversary Engine No. 1 Unanimously Backed Deal | B
October 11 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Bonds & Stocks
Fitch’s downgrade of US debt on August 1 was triggering for both the bond and stock markets. Bond yields since have soared, while S&P 500 companies’ collective valuation has staggered. Today, we examine the underlying issues that have kept yields elevated and the question of whether they’ve now risen high enough to attract sufficient demand to clear supply. … And: Joe shares stats on the MegaCap-8’s valuation declines since the end of July. Notwithstanding their valuation hits, these eight stocks now represent a slightly bigger slice of the S&P 500’s market cap, at a record-high 27.4%, than they did in July.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 9.
Markets
Extended war?: Markets may be underestimating Israel-Hamas conflict | C
Inured to edgy geopolitics, markets deflect risk | R
Oil bulls turned cautious before Middle East conflict | R
Central banks & credit
Higher Bond Yields Likely to Extend Fed Rate Pause | W
Daly Brings Higher R-Star Fears Back Into Mix for Bond Traders | B
Higher Interest Rates May Be Needed to Curb Inflation, Fed’s Bowman Says | B
The Fed is at odds with itself. That's a feature, not a bug | NN
CPI: Clash of Inflation Expectations as Tighter Credit Bites | B
Muni Funds That Use Borrowed Money Take a Big Hit | W
US
Profits Are Making a Comeback | W
Worried about jobs? Inflation? The Fed? Let's talk reality | P
Why America's strike wave is barely registering on Wall Street | NN
Downsizing Your Home for Retirement Isn’t the Money Move It Used to Be | W
Tiny Homes Are the Hot New Homeowners’ Accessory | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.S., in Chip War with China, Extends Some Allowances for Asian Allies | W
China saves billions of dollars from record sanctioned oil imports | R
Industries & companies
Autos: GM, Canadian autoworkers union Unifor reach deal to end strike | C
Banks: Higher-for-Longer Interest Rates Worry World Bank as Debt Ripples Spread | B
Banks: JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup, Banks Grapple With Worst Write-Offs in Three Years | B
Media: Europe gives Musk 24 hours to respond about Israel-Hamas war misinformation on X | C
Pharma: Shares of dialysis providers drop after Ozempic's early kidney trial success | R
Corporate finance
Exxon Mobil agrees to buy Pioneer Natural Resources for nearly $60 billion in all-stock merger | C
Birkenstock prices IPO at $46 per share | C
Beyond markets
Does it Matter to You if AI Makes a Work of Art You Love? WSJ Readers Are Divided | W
What’s Changed for Crypto After FTX? Not Much. | W
Is the Eye the Window to Alzheimer’s? | W
October 10 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Reassessing Recession Risk
The prospects of a prolonged war in the Middle East heighten the chance of a recession in the US. That’s not our base-case outlook, but we are raising the odds we see of a recession before year-end 2024 to 30% from 25%. The other 70% represents the rolling recessions/recoveries scenario we expect to continue; it’s tough to envision a recession when consumers have the support of such a robust labor market. … But our worry list has expanded with the recent addition of a potential debt crisis and now the escalation of Middle East hostilities. Additionally, we’re monitoring the banking industry for any sign of an emergent credit crunch.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 9.
Markets
Oil Prices, Defense Stocks Rise as Israel-Hamas Conflict Rattles Markets | W
Crude oil risks mount as Hamas ruptures Middle East detente | R
Exclusive: US, Venezuela in talks for fresh oil sanction exemptions -sources | R
Credit
Catastrophe Bonds Defy Global Selloff With Record Returns | B
US Treasury Yields Set to Slump When Cash Market Reopens for Asia Session | B
Long Bonds’ Historic 46% Meltdown Rivals Burst of Dot-Com Bubble | B
Corporate Bond Investors Are Turning to Shorter-Dated Investment-Grade Debt | B
US
Consumers buckling for first time in decade: Former Walmart U.S. CEO | C
As student loan payments restart, Biden can cancel all loan debt | MSNBC
Geopolitics & trade
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Explained: From Peacemaking to War | B
Israel’s Hostage Crisis Deepens With Execution Threat | W
Israel-Hamas war: Pentagon pushes U.S defense titans to send weapons | C
Israel attacks: Airlines cancel flights, tours scramble | C
Industries & companies
Autos: UAW strike shows Ford, GM, Stellantis have hit the scrapyard | P
Autos: US automakers increase strike layoffs by more than 800 | R
Energy: Exxon-Pioneer tie up could squeeze US shale oil suppliers, pipelines | R
Media: Why Nelson Peltz Grew Impatient With Disney’s Turnaround Efforts | W
Media: X, formerly Twitter, amplifies disinformation amid Israel-Hamas conflict | C
Artificial Intelligence
The US, not China, should take the lead on AI | FO
Climate
Aramco, Siemens Energy launch direct air-capture project | C
October 9 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumers: Hotter For Longer
Today, we challenge another aspect of the hard landers’ narrative: the notion that consumers will retrench, leading the broad economy into a recession. True, many consumers must resume paying the student-debt piper soon, and many have depleted their excess pandemic saving. … But bigger forces are supporting consumer spending: Consumers simply don’t halt the spending they love to do when their incomes are secure and growing, as now, with wages rising and plenty of jobs to go around. And it’s retired Baby Boomers’ time to kick back and spend their ample nest eggs. … Also: Dr. Ed reviews “The Sixth Commandment” (+ +).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 2.
Markets
Stocks Sink Across Mideast as Israel Goes to War With Hamas | B
Wall Street Is Worried the Bear Market Has ‘Unfinished Business’ | B
S&P 500 Faces Threat of Profit Warnings as Concerns About US Consumer Mount | B
Wall Street Isn’t Sure It Can Handle All of Washington’s Bonds | W
Brent, WTI prices jump after Hamas attack on Israel | C
US
To understand America’s job market, look beyond unemployed workers | E
Job growth surges but Americans still think the economy stinks | C
The U.S. Economy’s Secret Weapon: Seniors With Money to Spend | W
Attack on Israel Raises Stakes for Republicans in Speaker Fight | W
The ousting of Kevin McCarthy: bad for America, worse for Ukraine | E
Europe
Rising bond yields are exposing fiscal fantasy in Europe | E
China
China’s greying population is refusing to save for retirement | E
How China’s Rich Are Using Underground Networks to Move Their Money Abroad | B
India
Why India hopes to make it into more big financial indices | E
Geopolitics & trade
War Returns to the Middle East | W
U.S. is sending a carrier strike group closer to Israel and will begin supplying munitions | C
Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks | W
Blinken says U.S. has 'not yet seen' evidence of Iran involvement in Hamas attack on Israel | C
Why investors cannot escape China exposure | E
Industries & companies
Pharma: Novavax Covid vaccine can still catch up to Pfizer, Moderna shots | C
Retail: Home Depot Tracked a Crime Ring and Found an Unusual Suspect | W
Corporate finance
Bristol-Myers Squibb to acquire Mirati in a $4.8 billion deal | C
Big-Company Bankruptcies Hang Over Economy | W
The Valuation Reckoning: When AI Startup Darlings Hit Stratospheric Levels | C
October 7 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Copper, Travel & AI
Investors worried about US inflation might want to take a look at copper prices, which have fallen ytd. Copper faces gleaming long-term fundamentals, with global demand poised to soar as the EV and other electrification markets take off. But the commodity’s recent price action has been dulled by investors’ economic pessimism. … Also: Jackie examines what’s been grounding the stock price indexes of most travel-related industries. … And: AI’s transformative reach extends way beyond OpenAI and Bard. A look at some startups’ popular AI offerings.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 2.
Markets
Dow soars nearly 300 points Friday as stocks reverse sharp losses | C
Bear steepening US yield curve dashes 'soft landing' hopes | R
Where big investors are hiding amid choppy markets | C
Copper Study Group expects big supply surplus in 2024 | R
China forex reserves fall to $3.115 trillion in September | R
US
Job growth surges but Americans still think the economy stinks | C
IT Unemployment Soars to 4.3% Amid Overall Jobs Growth | W
Could Steve Scalise Quell the House GOP Revolt to Become Speaker? | W
Kevin McCarthy denies reports he is considering resigning from Congress | C
Europe
Europe’s gas stocks at record high going into winter 2023/24 | R
Geopolitics & trade
China’s Factory Floor Is Moving—But Not to India or Mexico | W
Industries & companies
Autos: UAW, Mack Trucks workers to vote on deal | C
Cruise Lines: Cruise Lines Pursue Greener Journeys Ahead of New Climate Rules | W
Artificial Intelligence
Why AI Is Medicine’s Biggest Moment Since Antibiotics | W
Artificial Empathy Is Coming. Are We Ready for Emotions From AI? | W
A big AI and robotics idea that has attracted Walmart and Softbank | C
Corporate finance
The Oil Patch Is Primed for an Era of Megadeals | W
October 6 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Copper, Travel & AI
Investors worried about US inflation might want to take a look at copper prices, which have fallen ytd. Copper faces gleaming long-term fundamentals, with global demand poised to soar as the EV and other electrification markets take off. But the commodity’s recent price action has been dulled by investors’ economic pessimism. … Also: Jackie examines what’s been grounding the stock price indexes of most travel-related industries. … And: AI’s transformative reach extends way beyond OpenAI and Bard. A look at some startups’ popular AI offerings.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 2.
Markets
Stock Market News Today: Dow, S&P 500 Open Lower After Jobs Report Comes in Hot | W
Wall Street drops after jobs data, eyes weekly losses | R
Why Wall Street investors are freaking out | NN
'Magnificent Seven' returned 92% this year, but it's risky for markets | C
The Bond Market’s Message | W
Central banks
US job growth smashes expectations raising prospects for rate hikes | R
Monetarism Is Back. It May Not Last. | W
US
Jobs report September 2023: Payrolls soared by 336,000 in September | C
Here's where the jobs are for September 2023 — in one chart | C
Here’s a Historical Look at U.S. Employment by Sector | W
Inflation is 'always going to be a risk,' ADP chief economist says | C
The needless panic about government debt | The Hill
If Trump Wants to Be Speaker, He’ll Need a House Seat | W
Why borrowing costs for nearly everything are surging | C
Geopolitics & trade
China Is Becoming a No-Go Zone for Executives | W
Industries & companies
Autos: UAW Strike Enters Fourth Week, Companies Brace for More Walkouts | W
Autos: U.S. Treasury details EV tax credit rebate rules | C
Autos: Tesla cuts Model 3, Model Y prices in the U.S. after deliveries fall | C
Health Care: US FDA still not satisfied with Philips recall; stock falls over 9% | R
Corporate finance
Fall of the zombies? Why corporate failures could surge in 2024 | R
Companies Borrow Against Their Assets in an Uncertain Economy | W
Exxon Mobil Closing In on Megadeal With Shale Driller Pioneer | W
October 5 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Copper, Travel & AI
Investors worried about US inflation might want to take a look at copper prices, which have fallen ytd. Copper faces gleaming long-term fundamentals, with global demand poised to soar as the EV and other electrification markets take off. But the commodity’s recent price action has been dulled by investors’ economic pessimism. … Also: Jackie examines what’s been grounding the stock price indexes of most travel-related industries. … And: AI’s transformative reach extends way beyond OpenAI and Bard. A look at some startups’ popular AI offerings.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 2.
Markets
Wall Street opens lower after jobs data | R
Barclays Says Only Stocks Crash Can Rescue Bonds, as Fed Likely Won't Ease | B
US dollar's rally supercharged by soaring real yields on Treasuries | R
High Gas Prices Reek of Low Cigarette Sales | W
Peak crude demand is fueling anger and argument in the world of oil | C
Central banks
Bond Selloff Might Force Fed to Rethink Shedding Assets | W
Recession Risk Grows With Surging Bond Yields, Fed Rate Hike in Play | B
We’re on track to whip inflation, so the Fed should leave interest rates alone | The Hill
US I
Is Your Next Mortgage 7% or 8%? Depends If You Shop Around. | W
US weekly jobless claims rise slightly; trade deficit narrows sharply | R
Inflation Is Only Half the Battle for Main Street When Borrowing Costs Surge | B
American Consumers Have Everyone Fooled -- Even the Federal Reserve | B
Americans are deep in credit card debt, but Bidenomics threatens to make things even worse | FO
US II
McCarthy Ouster Has Democrats Raising Money Off Republicans in Chaos | B
Nancy Mace Explains Why She Nixed Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker | W
Rising Interest Rates Mean Deficits Finally Matter | W
EV Factory Investment Brings Changes to American Small Towns | B
Geopolitics & trade