December 29 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. …. China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 12.
Yardeni Says Stock Bulls Have ‘Narrow Path’ to Victory in 2023 | B
Markets
These Are the Stocks That Kept Investors Up at Night in 2022 | B
The Great Liquidity Debate: Top Wall Street Traders Size Up the 2022 Fallout| B
An Epic Dollar Rally Goes Into Reverse—and Investors Expect Further Declines | W
Energy
Oil Market Was Splintered in 2022 by Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine | W
Europe Taps Tech’s Power-Hungry Data Centers to Heat Homes | W
Here’s why the U.S. electric grid isn’t running on 100% renewable energy yet | C
US
US Jobless Claims Rise Slightly But Remain Near Historic Lows | B
The second housing bubble of the 21st Century ends
Mortgage Rates in the US Rise for the First Time in Seven Weeks | B
Consumers Change Food-Delivery Habits | W
Economy Has Drinkers Choosing Prosecco Over Champagne | W
Here’s why egg prices surged in 2022. Those elevated costs could last into the first quarter of 2023, expert says | C
$1 million in retirement savings lasts longest in these 10 states—almost half are in the southeast | C
China
China's Xi solidified grip on power during tumultuous 2022 | R
Beijing Calls for Measured, Science-Based Response to Its Covid Outbreak | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: Southwest Airlines meltdown: When ultra-efficiency is not supported by technology | The Hill
Media: 2022 was tough for media stocks like Netflix and Disney, and 2023 doesn’t look good, either | C
Retail: Retail Investors Took a Beating in 2022. Will It Continue in 2023? | B
Tech: Apple iPhone Output in China Begins to Catch Up Despite Covid-19 Issues | W
Tech: Amazon lost half its value this year as tech stocks got crushed and recession fears grew | C
December 28 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. …. China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 12.
Markets
What's Ahead—and 3 Stocks to Watch—for Every S&P 500 Sector | BR
Negative-Yielding Bonds Could Be Approaching Their Final Days | W
Energy
Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe collapse to a post-Soviet low | R
Why natural gas plays a key role in the clean energy transition | The Hill
Opinion | This Year Was the Beginning of a Green Transition | N
US
Inflation Takes Biggest Bite From Middle-Income Households | W
U.S. pending home sales sag more than expected in November | C
China
China’s Censors End Crackdown on Covid-Policy Criticism—of a Certain Kind | W
Geopolitics & trade
Russia’s War Has United Europe, but Highlights Bloc’s Dependence on U.S. | W
Putin attempts to undermine oil price cap as global energy markets fracture | C
South Korea must respond to N.Korea despite its nuclear arms - Yoon | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Top 2022 auto stocks: Ferrari outshines EV makers like Tesla | C
Airlines: Southwest cancels more flights as rival carriers cap fares for stranded flyers | C
Airlines: Southwest flight upheaval a 'system failure,' U.S. says | R
Airlines: Flight cancellations: Why Southwest Airlines is melting down | CNN Business
Media: 'Avatar: The Way of Water' makes $1 billion in 14 days | C
Covid
U.S. to impose mandatory COVID-19 tests for travelers from China | R
U.S. records 100 million Covid cases, but more than 200 million Americans have probably had it | C
December 27 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. …. China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 12.
Markets
After Muni-Bond ‘Bloodbath,’ Expectations for 2023 Are Muted | W
US
U.S. retail sales grows 7.6% in holiday season -Mastercard data | R
Home Prices Fell in October for Fourth Straight Month | W
Baking Supplies Cost a Lot More This Year. So Did Flying. But That Flat-Screen TV Got Cheaper. | W
Europe
European Luxury Shares Rise on Easing of Chinese Border Restrictions | W
China
Does Zero Covid’s End Mean China Is Running Out of Money? | W
With ‘Zero Covid,’ China Proved It’s Good at Control. Governance Is Harder. | N
China's COVID cases overwhelm hospitals | R
China Cities’ Covid Estimates Suggest Infections May Peak in January | B
Chinese make travel plans as Beijing dismantles zero-COVID rules | R
China Covid: Lemons, peaches and TCM bought as protection from virus | C
Wealthy Chinese, Fed Up at Home, Find a Haven in Japan | W
Japan
Japanese Companies Reach Natural-Gas Deals With Oman, U.S. | W
India
India’s Upscale Housing Market Strengthens, Defying Global Trend | W
Geopolitics & trade
China-US Diplomatic Relations: Chinese Plan to Improve Ties | B
Taiwan reports China's largest incursion yet to air defence zone | R
The new geopolitical epoch | E
Industries & companies
Airlines: Southwest cancels 70% of flights as travel disruptions ease elsewhere | C
Airlines: Southwest Airlines CEO Says More Cancellations Ahead as Airline Tries to Recover | W
Autos: Why 2023 could be another difficult year for the auto industry | C
Autos: Auto-Loan Interest Rates Are Skyrocketing. No One Told Credit Unions. | W
Tech: IBM stock outperformed technology sector in 2022 | C
Tech: Chip Inventories Swell as Consumers Buy Fewer Gadgets | W
Tech: Laid Off Tech Workers Quickly Find New Jobs | W
Technology
Robots Are Replacing Workers Lost in the Pandemic. Why They're Here to Stay. | BR
December 23 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. …. China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 12.
Markets
S&P 500 Facing a Historical Warning Sign After This Year's Slump | B
Central banks
Japan Inflation Hits Four-Decade High, Pressuring Central Bank in 2023 | W
How the Federal Reserve affected 2022's stock market | C
Opinion | Larry Summers: what to do next on inflation | WP
Energy
Russia says it may cut oil output up to 7% over price cap | R
Column: Key coal import hubs in China perk up as economy reboots | R
US I
Why America's economy remains surprisingly strong -- but you don't realize it | NN
Why everyone thinks a recession is coming in 2023 | C
U.S. Household Spending Rose Sightly in November as Inflation Eased | W
U.S. Population Growth Remains Sluggish Despite Uptick This Year | W
Low weekly jobless claims underscore U.S. labor market tightness; Q3 growth revised up | R
U.S. Home Sales Post Record 10th Straight Month of Declines | W
Biden must take on the cost of rent next — and urge Congress to act | The Hill
CarMax results hit by 'used-vehicle recession'; buyback paused | R
US II
Egg Prices Surge to Records as Bird Flu Hits Poultry Flocks | W
Senate passes government funding bill, teeing up House vote | C
$52 billion plan to save New York's low-lying areas from sea flooding | C
Winter weather: Biden urges Americans to travel early with a massive blizzard slated to hit the U.S. | C
China I
Opinion | China’s Future Isn’t What It Used to Be | N
China Covid News: Soaring Cases Push Economic Activity Off A Cliff | B
China Covid Cases Surge Infecting 37 Million People a Day, According to Estimate | B
China's Covid Outbreak Could Spark Dangerous New Variant That Infects the World | B
Shanghai hospital warns of 'tragic battle' as COVID spreads | R
Opinion | In China, ‘Zero Covid’ Is Gone, but the Trauma Lingers | N
Sour U.S.-China Relations Feed the Fentanyl Crisis | W
Xi’s Support for Big Tech Is About More Than Covid | B
Geopolitics & trade
Exclusive: US says Russia's Wagner Group bought North Korean weapons for Ukraine war | R
Europe Is Rushing Arms to Ukraine but Running Out of Ammo | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: Winter storm Elliott: Airlines cancel flights before Christmas | C
Autos: Tesla stock slides on demand concerns, Elon Musk Twitter distraction | C
Beyond markets
Covid, flu, RSV: Tripledemic means masking up again, says virus expert | C
Schools Prepare for Rise in Flu, Covid-19 Cases Tied to Holiday Break | W
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried to be released on $250 million bail, will live with his parents | C
December 21 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. …. China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 12.
Markets
Dow Edges Higher After Surprise Bank of Japan Adjustment | W
Column: Commodity forecasts are absurd, but China is key as Ukraine fades | R
Bill Gross says markets are headed for 'potential chaos' if interest rates keep going up | C
Central banks
Bank of Japan Lets a Benchmark Rate Rise, Causing Yen to Surge | W
Japan to revise statement with central bank to water down price target, Kyodo reports | R
Fed zooms in on American paychecks as it takes inflation battle into 2023 | B
Energy
Gazprom: gas supplied in full, bypassing damaged Russian export pipeline | R
Porsche starts production of e-fuel that could provide gas alternative | C
US
Higher mortgage rates depress U.S. single-family housing starts, building permits | R
Lawmakers Boost Military, Domestic Spending in $1.65 Trillion Omnibus Bill | W
'Secure 2.0' on track to usher in changes to the retirement system | C
China
China population: with 2022 set to be a turning point, what’s next as economy, coronavirus take toll? | SCMP
China’s sudden ‘reopening’ reveals new economic challenges | C
Geopolitics & trade
Opinion | The U.S. Needs to Change the Way It Does Business With China | N
Industries & companies
Media: Marvel sequels are most anticipated movies of 2023: Fandango survey | C
Pharma: Many Hospitals Get Big Drug Discounts. That Doesn’t Mean Markdowns for Patients. | W
Beyond markets
JFK taxi dispatch system hacked, New York men arrested for conspiracy | C
December 20 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. …. China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 12.
Markets
What's Ahead for the Stock Market in 2023? Our Strategists Weigh In. | BR
Stock Picking Makes a Comeback in Market Turbulence | W
Central banks
The Bank of Japan shocks investors | E
Bank of Japan shocks global markets with bond yield shift | C
Bank of Japan Lets a Benchmark Rate Rise, Causing Yen to Surge | W
Japan Bends to Global Forces Pushing Up Interest Rates | W
Treasury Rally to Be Tested by Fed’s Next Move | W
Energy
Why the Gulf’s oil powers are betting on clean energy | E
U.S. Scores $4 Billion Windfall on Oil-Reserve Sales | W
US
2023 Could Bring Rolling Recessions and a Glimmer of Hope for Financial Markets | BR
The man behind Trump World’s myth of rigged voting machines | R
Congress releases spending bill with election reforms to prevent another Jan. 6 | C
China
China’s covid wave could kill as many as 1.5m people | E
Two health experts say China’s haste to re-open risks needless death and disruption | E
The world fears a new China COVID wave, ponders how to help Xi | R
Emerging
Emerging Markets Haven’t Seen a Bull Run in a Decade. Why There’s Hope for 2023. | BR
Geopolitics & trade
Japan’s Weapons Buildup to Bolster U.S. Efforts to Counter China | W
A looming Russian offensive | E
Analysis: Russia's grim battle for Bakhmut may yield pyrrhic victory at best | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Why More EV Makers Aren't Making Cars at All | BR
Autos: Auto execs less confident in EV adoption amid economic fears: KPMG | C
Chemicals: 3M to Stop Making, Discontinue Use of ‘Forever Chemicals’ | W
Financials: Wells Fargo Reaches $3.7 Billion Deal With Regulators Over Consumer Banking | W
Retail: Target under pressure, hopes value-hungry shoppers come to the rescue | C
Tech: Apple will reportedly begin producing some MacBooks in Vietnam in 2023 | C
Corporate finance
Oatly, Other Deflated IPO Stocks Haunt New-Issue Market | W
December 17 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. …. China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 12.
Markets
Dow closes more than 200 points lower, falls for second straight week | C
Forget Stock Predictions for Next Year. Focus on the Next Decade. | N
Global
Price Pressures Ease in U.S. and Europe, Businesses Say | W
Central banks
Italian economy minister says ECB rates hikes worrying for Rome | R
Energy
Breakneck LNG build-out shows Germany can move fast, Scholz says | R
Bill Gates-backed nuclear demonstration delayed by at least 2 years | C
US
Americans Expect Worsening U.S. Economy in 2023, WSJ Poll Finds | W
Why This Housing Downturn Isn’t Like the Last One | W
China
New Covid model predicts over 1 million deaths in China through 2023 | C
In COVID-hit Beijing, funeral homes and crematoriums are busy | R
Europe
EU Greenlights 15% Corporate Minimum Tax, Advancing Global Deal | W
Italy urges EU to give strong and strategic response to U.S. IRA | R
Geopolitics & trade
Putin’s New Strategy: Laying Claim to Traditional Values | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Ford F-150 Lightning electric pickup gets another price hike | C
Financials: Goldman Sachs is planning to cut up to 8% of its employees in January | C
Media: 'Avatar: The Way of Water' makes $17 million in Thursday previews | C
December 16 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. …. China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 12.
Markets
Dow Falls More Than 700 Points on Interest-Rate Expectations | W
Stock Market Traders Discover That Bad News Is Bad After All | B
The Markets Don’t Believe the Fed | W
Energy
Keystone pipeline break spilled diluted bitumen, complicating cleanup | R
Column: China boosted crude oil storage even as refiners processed more | R
California lowers solar energy incentives for homeowners | C
Central banks
How rules-based Fed policy can reduce recession risk and fight inflation | The Hill
How the Federal Reserve flawlessly curbed inflation in the ’90s - Vox
US
Retail Sales, Manufacturing Declines Point to Slowing Economy | W
Home flipping profits drop at fastest pace in over a decade | C
Senate Passes $858 Billion Defense-Policy Bill | W
Trump vows free speech reform of government, universities, tech | C
Europe
Is Europe’s Energy Crisis Actually A Boon? | OilPrice.com
EU Greenlights 15% Corporate Minimum Tax, Advancing Global Deal | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. Regulator Says It Has Access to Audit Papers of Chinese Companies | W
U.S. slaps restrictions on Chinese chipmaker, other companies over national security | C
Industries & companies
Airlines: The Bleisure Traveler—Coming to the Rescue of Airlines Everywhere | W
Healthcare: How a Sprawling Hospital Chain Ignited Its Own Staffing Crisis | N
Crypto
Sam Bankman-Fried’s Parents Under Scrutiny in FTX Collapse | N
Binance CEO brushes off $2.1 billion FTX clawback concerns | C
Beyond markets
Covid news: Most nursing home residents have not received omicron booster | C
December 15 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Consumers, China, & Fusion
FOMC sees rates headed higher for longer, but a soft economic landing remains in the cards. …. The Consumer Discretionary sector stands to profit from the drop in prices for gas, cotton, and shipping on the high seas. Lower inflation and higher wages should help, too. …. China’s politicians may hope eliminating zero-Covid policies will boost the nation’s economy. But the likely surge of Covid cases may prompt citizens to enter self-imposed isolation. …. Scientists reported a great advancement in nuclear fusion. But expect many more years of development before we’ll know if fusion will become an economically feasible way to generate carbon-free electricity.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 12.
Markets
Chinese firms avert delisting risk as U.S. watchdog gets 'full access' in audit inspections | R
Central banks
Jerome Powell’s Grim Inflation Outlook Is at Odds With Markets | W
Fed Raises Rate by 0.5 Percentage Point, Signals More Increases Likely | W
ECB slows rate hikes, says inflation fight must go on | R
ECB hikes rates, sees significant increases ahead as it announces plan to shrink balance sheet | C
Energy
Germany's half-a-trillion dollar energy bazooka may not be enough | R
Aramco and TotalEnergies to build $11 bln Saudi petrochemicals plant | R
US
Retail sales November 2022: Sales fall 0.6% as consumers feel pressure from inflation | C
U.S. retail sales post biggest drop in 11 months; labor market tight | R
China
China’s Leaders Plot Pivot Back Toward Boosting Economy | W
Geopolitics & trade
Exclusive: The global supply trail that leads to Russia’s killer drones | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: American Airlines frequent flyer reward changes make it harder to earn | C
Crypto
Binance CEO brushes off $2.1 billion FTX clawback concerns | C
December 14 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Disinflation?
Inflation peaked in June and continued to moderate in November. The Santa Claus rally should continue unless the Fed’s Grinches get in the way. …. Small business owners still facing labor shortages and raising wages and prices. …. S&P 500 forward revenues, earnings, and margins losing their mojo. And: What if home prices don’t fall much?
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 12.
Markets
Stocks close higher on cooler inflation report, notch second day of gains | C
Unpredictable 10-Year Treasury Yield Poses Puzzle for Investors, Fed | W
Central banks
Fed rate hike expected to be half a percentage point as central bank fights inflation | C
Slowing Inflation Could Intensify Fed Debate Over When to Stop Raising Rates | W
US
U.S. Inflation Eased in November, CPI Report Shows | W
Prices for Used Cars, Plane Tickets and Electricity Eased in November | W
Mortgage rates drop after CPI inflation report | C
Unhappy New Year: CBO Forecasts Poor Economy, Soaring Deficits in 2023 | The Heritage Foundation
Too Much Gloom and Doom? by Willem H. Buiter | PS
Europe
Europe Strikes Deal to Tax Imports Based on Greenhouse-Gas Emissions | W
Europe’s Energy Ministers Fail to Agree on Plan for Natural-Gas Price Curb | W
Geopolitics & trade
The supply chain that keeps tech flowing to Russia | R
Two Americans and five Russians charged with running a smuggling network to obtain military technology and ammunition for Russia | C
Industries & companies
Pharma: Moderna’s mRNA Cancer Vaccine Shows Promise in Preliminary Study | W
Technology
Nuclear fusion breakthrough: More power than used to create reaction | C
ChatGPT is a new AI chatbot that can answer questions and write essays | C
Crypto
Exclusive: How a secret software change allowed FTX to use client money | R
FTX executives spent $256 million on Bahamas real estate | C
Beyond markets
Opinion | The Great Delusion Behind Twitter | N
December 13 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Bubble in Everything Has Burst. Now What?
The bubble in everything has burst without dire consequences so far. Surprisingly, it has been a relatively smooth transition back to the Old Normal from the New Normal. Among the biggest bubbles to pop was in the bond market. The cryptocurrency calamity hasn’t turned into a contagion. The SPAC debacle has also been contained. There is still some air in the stock market bubble, but less than there was at the beginning of the year. Home prices may get supported by a shortage of inventory.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 12.
Markets
10-year Treasury yield drops below 3.5% after inflation reading comes in lighter than expected | C
Copper prices — traditionally a barometer for the global economy — are expected to soar next year | C
Central banks
Interest-Rate Paths for U.S., Europe Set to Diverge | W
US
CPI Report Shows U.S. Inflation Eased in November | W
CPI inflation November 2022: Prices rose less than expected in November, up 7.1% from a year ago | C
Supply-Chain Shortfalls Targeted by New Bill | W
Four-day workweek: How shortening the week could change office life | C
Europe
Europe Strikes Deal to Tax Imports Based on Greenhouse-Gas Emissions | W
Energy crisis: EU works on gas cap and contingency measures for next winter | C
China
China’s Zero-Covid Policy Is Ending, but Not Everyone Is Celebrating | W
China reportedly delays key economic meeting amid signs of surging infections | R
Geopolitics & trade
China brings WTO case against U.S. chip export restrictions | C
Industries & companies
Airlines: United Airlines places Boeing order for 100 Dreamliners | C
Pharma: Moderna’s mRNA Cancer Vaccine Shows Promise in Preliminary Study | W
Climate
Explainer: Could fusion energy help fight climate change? | R
Crypto
Sam Bankman-Fried ran FTX as fraud ‘from the start,’ SEC charges | C
December 12 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Call Of The Wild
A few choice negative words about consumer spending prospects from a few high-profile bank CEOs tripped up the S&P 500 last week. But on Monday, a strong NM-PMI release did the same, setting investors fretting about the very opposite: that consumer spending might be too strong. Meanwhile, the bankers are crying all the way to the bank: The S&P 500 Financials sectors’ forward revenue and forward earnings have never been higher. If investors need reassurance that the economy isn’t headed south, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model certainly provides it. … Also: PPI inflation is falling relatively quickly. … And: Wage growth seems to have peaked.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 5.
Markets
A Global Upheaval Is Under Way, Says Market Veteran Felix Zulauf. Don’t Get Caught Flat-Footed. | BR
Some Activists Are Leading an ESG Backlash | BR
Central banks
Investors Grow More Confident Fed Will Pull Off a Soft Landing | W
Interest-Rate Paths for U.S., Europe Set to Diverge | W
Global
Column: Fiscal cavalry trots to inflation battle | R
US
U.S. inflation will be much lower by end of 2023, Yellen says | R
You’re Hired! No Interview Required in Tight Labor Market | W
Inflation Is Forcing Many Retirees to Put Long-Awaited Plans on Hold—Again | BR
Homelessness Worsens in Older Populations as Housing Costs Take Toll | W
From Disney to Target, Boeing, CEO retirements are a thing of the past | C
Sen. Sinema's switch to Independent will not impact Democrats' control of the chamber, representatives say | C
China
China is loosening its covid restrictions, at great risk | E
China is dismantling its zero-covid machine | E
Chinese consumers wary of splurging after Beijing relaxes COVID strictures | R
Waning trust: China shadow banks pivot away from property to survive | R
China Props Up Belt-and-Road Borrowers Via Unusual Channel | W
China's Balance of Payments Data Does Not Add Up | Council on Foreign Relations
Europe
Why Italy, like Europe, is crying out for big reform | E
Geopolitics & trade
How Washington Persuaded Europe to Put a Price Cap on Russian Oil | W
Industries & companies
Healthcare: CVS Wants to Be a Healthcare Provider. So Why Doesn't It Have Any Doctors? | BR
Materials: Coal Price’s Rally May Soon Burn Out | BR
Media: I Found the Perfect Replacement for Twitter. It’s LinkedIn | WIRED
Technology
SpaceX launches Japanese ispace lunar lander first mission | C
Beyond markets
NASA Prepares for Orion Spacecraft Splashdown to Conclude Artemis I Mission | W
December 09 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Industrials, P/Es & Chinese Protestors
The Industrials sector is outperforming the S&P 500 despite market expectations for a recession. The sector’s exposure to airlines, the defense industry, Boeing, and General Electric may continue to support its performance into 2023. … Also: The bear market has taken a bite out of most industries’ forward P/Es, especially those involved with Information Technology or Consumer Discretionary sectors. Meanwhile, forward P/Es have expanded for select industries in the defensive Consumer Staples and Health Care sectors. … And Jackie examines how technology both helped and hurt Chinese protesters.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 5.
Markets
S&P 500 snaps losing streak on jobless claims rise | R
US
U.S. labor market still tight despite continuing claims hitting 10-month high | R
U.S. Jobless Claims Rise Slightly in Tight Labor Market | W
'The worst is yet to come': the curse of high inflation | R
Gas Prices Fall Below Last Year’s Average | W
A $100 Billion Lesson In Why Building Public Transportation Is So Expensive in the US | Vice
House passes $858 billion defense bill that would scrap Covid vaccine mandate | C
China
How Will China Turn Its Economy Back On? The World Is About to Find Out. | N
Shanghai Disneyland Reopens as Businesses in China Welcome Covid-Control Easing | W
Letter From Apple Supplier Foxconn’s Founder Prodded China to Ease Zero-Covid Rules | W
Europe
The Five-Year Engineering Feat Germany Pulled Off in Months | W
Germany expects more arrests after coup plot swoop | R
Geopolitics & trade
Saudi Arabia signs Huawei deal, deepening China ties on Xi visit | R
NATO Membership for Sweden and Finland on Track, Officials Say | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Auto Dealers Gird for Softening Demand Amid Higher Rates, Uncertain Outlook | W
Autos: Tesla Sales of Chinese-Made Cars Hit Record, as Nation’s Auto Market Shrinks | W
Energy: Column: 'Dispatchable' renewables in spotlight after upbeat IEA report | R
Energy: Exxon Holds Firm on Its Five-Year Spending Outlook | W
Financials: The $42 Billion Question: Why Aren’t Americans Ditching Big Banks? | W
Corporate finance
FTC sues to block Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard | C
Crypto
SEC issues new guidance requiring companies to disclose cryptocurrency risks | C
FTX spokesman Kevin O'Leary says he lost $15 million crypto payday | C
December 08 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Industrials, P/Es & Chinese Protestors
The Industrials sector is outperforming the S&P 500 despite market expectations for a recession. The sector’s exposure to airlines, the defense industry, Boeing, and General Electric may continue to support its performance into 2023. … Also: The bear market has taken a bite out of most industries’ forward P/Es, especially those involved with Information Technology or Consumer Discretionary sectors. Meanwhile, forward P/Es have expanded for select industries in the defensive Consumer Staples and Health Care sectors. … And Jackie examines how technology both helped and hurt Chinese protesters.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 5.
Markets
S&P 500 Notches Five-Day Losing Streak as Investors Mull Path for Rates | W
Bruising Stock Market Reversal Shows How Fed’s Pivot May Come Too Late | B
What China’s Covid-19 Reopening Means for Markets | W
Emerging Economies Have a High Default Risk in 2023 | B
Energy
Russian Oil-Price Cap Adds to Fiscal Pressure on Moscow | W
US
What’s Going On With the Housing Market? | W
Used vehicle demand and prices continue to decline from record highs | C
Long Covid Is a Threat to the Whole Economy | B
Wells Fargo, BofA CEOs say consumer demand is cooling, recession looms | C
U.S. SEC to vote on proposals that could overhaul Wall St. trading | R
Georgia Win Ends Headaches of 50-50 Senate for Democrats | W
Europe
Germany Arrests Extremists in Plot to Overthrow Government | W
China
China Scraps Most Covid Testing, Quarantine Requirements in Policy Pivot | W
'Too many positives!': As China rows back COVID curbs, virus fears spread | R
Rich Chinese keep spending while others cut back: McKinsey survey | C
Japan
Japan upgrades Q3 GDP as global recession, COVID risks linger | R
Geopolitics & trade
U.S., Europe Need a Grand Bargain on Semiconductors and Electric Vehicles to Counter China | W
December 07 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Bonds & Europe
Bond yields aren’t determined as much by supply and demand as they are by investor expectations regarding inflation and the Fed’s likely response to it. But it’s helpful to stay aware of the latest supply-and-demand-related developments in the bond market, which we review today. … Also: The EU has been doing a remarkable job of finding alternative fuel sources to replace energy imports from Russia. If a war-provoked energy crisis this winter causes a recession in Europe, chances seem good that it’ll be mild and brief.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 5.
Markets
S&P 500 closes lower for a fourth straight day as recession worries jolt markets | C
Stocks Tumble After Strong Data Raises Rate Fears | W
Oil Prices and Energy Stocks Are Headed in Different Directions. What Gives? | W
Energy
Europe Can’t Count On U.S. Shale To Make Up For Russian Crude | OilPrice.com
Analysis: G7 Russian oil price cap evolves from revenue squeeze to market anchor | R
The $60 price cap on Russian oil, explained - Vox
Oil Price Cap Triggers Tanker Traffic Jam in Turkish Straits | W
Central banks
Fed to Weigh Higher Interest Rates Next Year While Slowing Rises This Month | W
Global
High Debt Levels Could Pressure Developing Countries as Global Economy Slows | W
US
America’s $66 trillion in debt that could crash the economy | P
Trump Organization, owned by Donald Trump, convicted in tax fraud case | C
Japan
Japan business mood up, global slowdown weighs on outlook -poll | R
Geopolitics & trade
U.S., EU Agree to Coordinate Semiconductor Subsidy Programs | W
TikTok National-Security Deal Faces More Delays as Worry Grows Over Risks | W
Industries & companies
Banking: Sen. Brown introduces bill to close 'shadow' banking loophole after Elon Musk says Twitter will process payments | C
Tech: Meta’s Targeted Ad Model Faces Restrictions in Europe | W
Technology
Bezos' space company teams with Lockheed, Boeing for NASA moon pitch | C
Crypto
Former FTX engineer quietly became millionaire Democratic donor | C
December 06 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Earnings Matters
Industry analysts following S&P 500 companies collectively lowered their earnings sights for this year and next when they heard Q3 earnings reports. The past three weeks have brought a reprieve in the estimate cutting, but will Q4 earnings reporting season revive it? Our soft-landing economic forecast suggests forward earnings moving sideways, not dropping, through H1-2023. … Also: PMIs correlate with the growth rates of S&P 500 earnings and revenues, and the latest readings yield insights into consumer spending patterns and inflationary pressures. … And: There’s no simple rule of thumb for when to over- and under-weight stocks of various capitalization sizes, but there are specific economic conditions that can guide the decision.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on December 5.
Markets
China’s Covid Easing Fuels Stock-Market Hopes—and Fans Fears | W
Energy
Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Reshaping Geopolitics | OilPrice.com
Russian oil cap: EU ministers insist it'll work despite Kremlin's opposition | C
Oil Prices and Energy Stocks Are Headed in Different Directions. What Gives? | W
Renewables to be main source of electricity generation by 2025: IEA | C
US
Housing Costs, Inflation’s Biggest Component, Are Poised to Ease | W
Jamie Dimon says inflation eroding consumer wealth may cause recession next year | C
Warnock, Walker Wrap Up Senate Runoff Campaign as Georgia Voters Head to Polls | W
Inside the fight for an end-of-year deal to expand the child tax credit | Vox
Europe
Germany: EU shouldn't borrow more to compete with U.S. green subsidies | C
China
Beijing drops COVID testing burden as wider easing beckons | R
China's Covid lockdowns are having a lessening impact on its economy | C
Industries & companies
Airlines: United CEO says business travel has 'plateaued' but revenue is still rising | C
Airlines: Airlines warn of higher fares from green transition | R
Autos: Ford CEO says 65% of U.S. dealers agree to sell EVs | C
Real Estate: Investors Yank Money From Commercial-Property Funds, Pressuring Real-Estate Values | W
Retail: Inflation still a problem for Americans, Walmart CEO says | C
Corporate finance
NRG Energy to Buy Vivint Smart Home for $2.8 Billion | W
Microsoft offers Sony 10-year deal for Call of Duty on PlayStation | C
December 05 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
We’ll be glad to put this year behind us—pessimism reigned as inflation raged, the Fed tightened, and investors revalued stocks downward. But the resultant bear market was a mild one as bear markets go. If it ended on October 12, as we believe, the S&P 500 actually was in bear-market territory—down more than 20%—for only 45 days of the 282-day span. … Next year, the economic backdrop should be more bullish as inflation moderates and rising wages outpace rising prices. We expect a soft landing, not a recession. … Longer term, we stand by our “Roaring 2020s” thesis, anticipating that labor shortages and technological advances will unleash a productivity boom.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 28.
Markets
Dow Shines as Higher Rates Squeeze Nasdaq’s Tech Stocks | W
Small-Cap Stocks Are Some of the Best Buys in the Stock Market | BR
China’s Stock Market Is Seeing a Rebound. But It Might Not Last Long. | BR
Bonds Are Primed for a Better 2023, but How Much Better? | W
Central banks
A Central Bank That Raised Rates Early Now Talks Up Recession | W
The Fed's path to a 'Goldilocks' economy just got more complicated | C
Energy
OPEC+ keeps steady policy amid weakening economy, Russian oil cap | R
OPEC+ Keeps Oil Curbs Despite Russia Price Cap | W
OPEC+ meeting: Oil producer group in focus ahead of Russia sanctions | C
Russia will not export oil subject to Western price cap, deputy prime minister says | R
US
Economists Think They Can See Recession Coming—for a Change | W
Is the Housing Market Headed for a Big Crash? What's Ahead for Real Estate. | BR
Employers Try to Hold Line on Wages, With Mixed Success | W
Companies need to increase salary transparency or workers will quit | C
China
Manufacturing orders from China down 40% in demand collapse | C
China Loosens Covid Restrictions as Public Anger Simmers | W
Chinese cities ease curbs, full zero-COVID exit seen some way off | R
Xi Jinping’s zero-covid policy has turned a health crisis into a political one | E
The protests in China may change the way Xi Jinping runs the country, says Minxin Pei | E
The Chinese government exercises control through local busybodies, explains Lynette H. Ong | E
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. intel chief on Russia using up ammunition in Ukraine | C
Chinese Solar Manufacturers Dodged U.S. Tariffs, Probe Finds | W
Poor Countries Feel Sting of Local-Currency Debt | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: Delta pilots would get more than 30% in pay raises under new contract deal | C
Housing: The Housing Boom Is Over. But Housing Stocks Could Still Be Winners. | BR
Media: Who will be Disney's next CEO? Top contenders to succeed Bob Iger | C
Tech: Apple Makes Plans to Move Production Out of China | W
Tech: Business-Software Companies Say Customers Are Pulling Back Amid Economic Concerns | W
Crypto
Can You Buy Bitcoin Without an Exchange Like FTX? We Tried. | BR
FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Says He Can’t Account for Billions Sent to Alameda | W
Clashes Over FTX Bankruptcy Go Global | W
Beyond markets
Parents Who Share Info About Their Kids Online Are a Cybersecurity Risk. Here’s Why. | W
Billions in Covid Aid Went to Hospitals That Didn’t Need It | W
December 02 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Powell, Onshoring & Tech
Reassurance from Fed Chair Powell yesterday that the Fed would proceed on its tightening course with “moderation,” to avoid setting off a recession, was music to investors’ ears—lifting stock prices and lowering bond yields. Today, we look at the words that had such a palliative effect on markets and recap Powell’s main points, especially about inflation. … Also: Rising reshoring and FDI trends suggest a revival of US manufacturing, which will benefit supply chains and labor markets. … And: Jackie examines the reasons for tech stocks’ recent malaise.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 28.
Central banks
ECB’s Lagarde Leads Chorus Warning That Inflation Must Be Anchored | B
Column: Powell wisely passes up financial conditions 'open goal': McGeever | R
Jobs Report Keeps Federal Reserve on Track for 0.5-Point Rate Rise | W
Energy
Gas Prices Are Dropping: Here’s How Much Lower They Might Go | W
Lack of Wind Pushes Europe’s Power Prices Higher, Just as Cold Sets In | W
OPEC meeting: Oil output cuts on the table ahead of Russia sanctions | C
EU, G-7 Wait on Poland to Advance Russian Oil-Price Cap | W
Why Silicon Valley is so hot on nuclear energy | C
US I
Jobs report November 2022: Payrolls and wages blow past expectations and flying in the face of Fed rate hikes | C
November Employment Report Shows U.S. Economy Added 263,000 Jobs | W
U.S. job growth strong in November; wages rise | R
How COVID-19 transformed the jobs market | The Hill
US II
Railroad strike: How the trains are getting longer and the job is getting worse. | slate.com
Opinion | The Rail Strike Is a Chance For Biden to Prove He Really Is a Pro-Union President | N
Next steps on the Child Tax Credit | brookings.edu
China
China Turns to Well-Worn Playbook to Keep Protesters Off Streets | W
China Clamps Down on Internet as It Seeks to Stamp Out Covid Protests | W
Inside China's fight over the future of zero-COVID | R
China people worry wrong Covid test results mean pandemic won't end | C
Geopolitics & trade
The U.S. wants the EU to be strict with China. But Europe can't afford it | C
European Frustration Over U.S. Subsidies Mounts Ahead of Key Meeting | W
Russia 'open' to talks on Ukraine but presses demands after Biden comment | R
Chinese Solar Manufacturers Are Evading Tariffs, US Finds | B
Industries & companies
Financials: Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Goldman Cut Banker Bonuses | B
Tech: Tech layoffs leave visa holders scrambling for jobs to remain in U.S. | C
Crypto
Is cryptocurrency still a good investment? | The Week
FTX: DOJ watchdog calls for review over crypto fraud allegations | C
December 01 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Powell, Onshoring & Tech
Reassurance from Fed Chair Powell yesterday that the Fed would proceed on its tightening course with “moderation,” to avoid setting off a recession, was music to investors’ ears—lifting stock prices and lowering bond yields. Today, we look at the words that had such a palliative effect on markets and recap Powell’s main points, especially about inflation. … Also: Rising reshoring and FDI trends suggest a revival of US manufacturing, which will benefit supply chains and labor markets. … And: Jackie examines the reasons for tech stocks’ recent malaise.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 28.
Markets
S&P 500 ends 3-day losing streak. Dow jumps 700 points after Powell signals smaller rate hikes | C
Central banks
Jerome Powell Signals Fed Prepared to Slow Rate-Rise Pace in December | W
Fed Chair Jerome Powell says smaller rate hikes could come in December | C
Fed's Powell: Rate hikes to slow, but adjustment just beginning | R
US
House Approves Imposing Railroad Labor Deal, Paid Sick-Leave Measure | W
Some Rail Workers, Seeking Sick Days, Say Biden Betrayed Them | N
U.S. Economic Growth Slowed This Fall, Fed’s Beige Book Says | W
Third-Quarter U.S. Growth Was Stronger Than Previously Thought | W
Companies are cutting Zoom accounts and office space instead of jobs - Vox
China
Overseas Chinese step up protests as calls mount for change | R
China’s Covid Protests Began With an Apartment Fire in a Remote Province | W
Proud, Scared and Conflicted. What the China Protesters Told Me. | N
Industries & companies
Media: EU warns Musk that Twitter faces ban over content moderation -FT | R
Media: Disney warns restructuring could result in impairment charges | R
Tech: Mark Zuckerberg says Apple's app store policies are not 'sustainable' | C
Crypto
Bitcoin Family moving more than $1 million into DEXs after FTX collapse | C
‘No Cooperation’: How Sam Bankman-Fried Tried to Cling to FTX | N
UK charity backed by Bankman-Fried sounds alarm to British regulators | C
Crypto exchange Kraken lays off 1,100 employees | C
Technology
Elon Musk's Neuralink Hopes for Approval to Implant a Computer in a Human Brain | B
Beyond markets
Megalopolis: how coastal west Africa will shape the coming century | Africa | The Guardian
November 30 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: 2024 Is Coming!
As 2023 approaches and progresses, it will be the 2024 outlook that the stock market increasingly will discount. Today, we examine the stock market equation P = P/E x E, with E representing S&P 500 forward earnings, in the context of both the consensus and our expectations for earnings and the economic backdrop next year and in 2024. … Also: The inverted yield curve is predicting neither a credit crunch nor a recession, in our view. This time, it may be anticipating a hasty retreat of inflation. That could mean that the yields on both the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries are peaking.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 28.
Markets
The Best Stocks to Buy Next Year as Inflation Dies | InvestorPlace
Junk Bonds Rally as Investors Speculate Inflation Has Peaked | W
Central banks
Eurozone Inflation Eased in November, but Further Rate Rises Likely | W
Elon Musk says the Fed must cut rates ‘immediately’ to stop a severe recession | C
US
Job Openings Report to Indicate Tightness of Labor Market | W
Private hiring increased by just 127,000 jobs in November, well below estimate, ADP reports | C
Mortgage rates fall for the third straight week, but demand still drops further | C
What Congress could do to avoid a rail strike — and why unions are upset | Vox
China
Two Chinese cities ease COVID curbs after protests spread | R
Jiang Zemin, Leader Who Presided Over China’s Economic Rise, Dies at 96 | W
Geopolitics & trade
Chinese Startups Try to Make It Big in the U.S.—but Without the Backlash | W
Why Macron? Biden state dinner highlights France's U.S. appeal | R
Industries & companies
Media: Opinion | Why Disney Fans Celebrated the Firing of Bob Chapek | N
Retail: Amazon records biggest ever Thanksgiving shopping weekend | Reuters
Crypto
European Central Bank says bitcoin is on the 'road to irrelevance' | C
Early Alameda Staffers Quit After Battling Sam Bankman-Fried Over Risk, Compliance Concerns | W
Climate
COP27's green agenda will leave many out in the cold this winter | WT
November 29 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Anxious Index
If the economy is in for a hard landing next year, it would be the most widely anticipated recession ever. The Philly Fed’s survey of forecasters, the WSJ’s survey of economists, and even the Misery Index that reflects the sum of unemployment and inflation rates point to a recession. … But we think this time is different. There’s been no broad-based credit crunch, liquidity is ample, consumer incomes are growing, multi-family housing remains strong, capital spending does too, and fiscal stimulus has been gushing. Real GDP shouldn’t contract in such an environment but grow, slowly but surely. We’re in the soft-landing camp.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 28.
Markets
Dow tumbles 500 points but could actually end the year in the green | NN
Stocks close lower, Dow drops nearly 500 points as supply chain concerns mount amid protests in China | C
Central banks
Fed has 'a ways to go' on interest rate hikes, Bullard says | R
Fed’s Williams Says Inflation Fight Could Last Into 2024 | W
Resolute and Mindful: The Path to Price Stability | FRBSF
US
400 groups urge U.S. lawmakers to take 'immediate steps' to block potential rail strike | R
Job Cuts in Tech and Banking Don't Mean Mass Layoffs in Looming Global Recession | B
Joe Biden wastes billions on COVID boosters vaccines | P
China
China Clamps Down on Protesters Against Zero-Covid Policies | W
Chinese Protests Put Xi Jinping in a Bind | W
Protests against Covid controls erupt across China | C
Geopolitics & trade
White House Says Chinese Have a Right to Peacefully Protest | W
Russia Cancels Arms-Control Talks, U.S. Says | W
Industries & companies
Media: Elon Musk claims Apple has threatened to remove the Twitter app | C
Retail: Returns Are the Retail Industry’s Quietly Mounting Logistics Problem | W
Tech: Exclusive: Microsoft likely to offer EU concessions soon in Activision deal -sources | R
Crypto
BlockFi Bankruptcy: More Crypto Trader Funds Trapped After FTX Collapse | B
How FTX 'death spiral' spelled doom for BlockFi, according to filing | C
FTX: The Enron case on steroids, fueled by woke capitalism | The Hill
Corporate finance
Shell to Buy Biogas Producer in $2 Billion Deal | W
Climate
U.S. warns California cities possible water cuts in fourth dry year | C
Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Volcano Is Erupting for the First Time Since 1984 | W
Idealab, Heliogen founder Bill Gross sold solar energy kits in 1973 | C
ESG
Sign of the times: BlackRock closes ESG fund due to lack of interest, amid poor performance - Citywire | Twitter
Populist House Republicans Picking a Fight With US Business Over ‘Woke Capitalism’ | R
November 28 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: 2023 Is Coming!
The consensus is now bracing for a 2023 recession that tempers inflation and ends the Fed’s reign of tightening but also depresses corporate earnings, suggesting more downside for stocks’ valuation multiples. We’re more optimistic, expecting no broad-based recession but a rolling one, no continued bear market in stocks but sluggish earnings limiting their upside. … Both scenarios hinge on inflation: If it remains persistently high despite having peaked, expect a broad-based recession and all that entails. If not, the 2023 outlook will be brighter. … Also: A look at data supporting both soft- and hard-landing scenarios. … And: What the Fed might do next.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 14.
Markets
Stocks Are on the Rise, but Earnings Could Drag Them Down Again | W
Xi Jinping’s big bang for Chinese stock markets | E
Oil Prices Face Fresh Volatility With New Russia Sanctions, OPEC Decision | W
Global
Globalized Supply Chain Brings More-Turbulent Food Prices | W
Energy
The Next U.S. Energy Revolution Is Here | BR
The costs and consequences of Europe’s energy crisis are growing | E
US I
Why the nation is once again close to a devastating freight railroad strike | MSN
With unions aligned, timeline for rail strike and railroad emergency prep is now clear | MSN
Biden’s Railroad Deal Falls Apart | W
US II
New Help for a Group at Risk for Suicide: Middle-Aged Men | W
California’s Homelessness Problem Pits Gov. Gavin Newsom Against Mayors | W
Employers Rethink Need for College Degrees in Tight Labor Market | W
Europe
German Consumers Are Boosting the Economy. These Stocks Stand to Gain. | BR
Europe faces an enduring crisis of energy and geopolitics | E
China
China’s Economy Faces Challenges Despite Latest Moves to Stimulate Growth | W
Clashes in Shanghai as COVID protests flare across China | R
Protests against Covid controls erupt across China | C
China Could Reignite Its Growth. How to Play It While Limiting Risks. | BR
Geopolitics & trade
In Ukraine, living as normal is an act of defiance | E
Zelenskiy warns Ukraine to brace for more Russian attacks | R
South Korea govt plans first talks with striking truckers | R
Industries & companies
Logistics: The Logistics and Supply-Chain Slowdown Has Begun. Here’s How to Take Advantage. | W
Media: Disney is the biggest winner and loser at the Thanksgiving box office | C
Retail: Black Friday online sales top $9 billion in new record | C
Retail: Black Friday 2022: Walmart overtakes Amazon in shoppers' search for bargains | C
Tech: Tech's reality check: How the industry lost $7.4 trillion in one year | C
Technology
Quantum Computing Will Change the World. How to Play the Stocks. | BR
Beyond markets
Caroline Ellison Was a Little-Known Crypto Trader. Then FTX Collapsed. | NYT
What is long-termism? | E
The U.S. is 'certainly' still in a Covid-19 pandemic, Dr. Fauci says | C
November 21 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Thanksgiving In The Twilight Zone
While Covid-19 has upended life the world over, Americans have plenty of blessings to count this Thanksgiving. The US economy continues to grow, employment continues to expand, and consumers continue to spend. Although the single-family housing industry is in recession, multi-family housing starts are going strong. The auto industry is also doing well despite tighter credit conditions. Capital spending remains robust. The nasty supply-chain disruptions that had fueled high inflation appear to be over. And the US fossil fuel industry not only is meeting domestic energy needs but exporting to help meet Europe’s.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 14.
Markets
Energy shares, China COVID cases weigh on Wall St; Disney jumps | R
Central banks
Fed’s Aggressive Rate Hikes Are a Game Changer | W
The Federal Reserve Is Surely Not the Cause of Silicon Valley’s Swinging Ax | FO
Energy
U.S. Crude Oil Price Falls Below $80 a Barrel | W
Saudi Arabia Eyes OPEC+ Output Increase Ahead of Restrictions on Russian Oil | W
America must future-proof its energy sector with nuclear power | Washington Examiner
US
Stressed-Out Americans Plan to Buy Fewer Christmas Gifts, Donate Less to Charity | W
DeSantis, Others Draw Distinctions With Trump in 2024 GOP Nomination Race | W
Democrats must protect Social Security by raising the debt ceiling | The Hill
China
Mainland China reports first Covid-related deaths since Shanghai lockdown | C
Geopolitics & trade
China Turns to Back-Channel Diplomacy to Shore Up U.S. Ties | W
Top Russian official warns of possible nuclear accident at Zaporizhzhia | R
Explainer: Ukrainian nuclear plant shelled: Here's what we know | R
Industries & companies
Media: How Elon Musk is changing Twitter, from mass layoffs to check marks | Vox
Media: 'It's over': Twitter France's head quits amid layoffs | R
Media: Disney blindsided Chapek with decision to replace him with Iger | C
Retail: Retailers Are Expecting Unpredictable Holiday Sales. These Companies Will Come Out On Top. | BR
Corporate finance
Biden grants PG&E $1.1 billion to keep Diablo Canyon nuclear plant open | C
Crypto
Is this the end of crypto? | E
Collapsed crypto exchange FTX owes top 50 creditors $3 billion: Filing | C
Beyond markets
NASA's Orion spacecraft flies by the moon on Artemis 1 mission | C
Opinion | Musk, Bezos, Bankman-Fried, Trump: It Was a Bad Week for Billionaires | N
Sam Bankman-Fried tries to broker FTX bailout from his Bahamas home | C
November 19 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Consumers, Chips & The Oceans
Consumers are still spending robustly in many categories, as the surprisingly strong retail sales report for October showed. But Walmart and Target brass speaking on Q3 conference calls described heightened budget consciousness across income demographics. And while consumers have income, their balance sheets have been weakening as they take on more debt. … Are semiconductor stocks becoming attractive at their depressed valuations? Perhaps, but news this week reminds us why valuations are so depressed—demand is weak and analysts pessimistic. … Also: The oceans are about to get greener if innovative solutions employing AI, 3D printing, and low-tech dragnets succeed.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 15.
Markets
S&P 500 closes higher on Friday, but ends week with losses | C
Higher Rates Mean “Bonds Are Back,” JPMorgan’s Michele Says | B
Central banks
NY Fed: Bank liquidity may be tighter than thought, with policy implications | R
Fed’s Susan Collins Says Her View on Rate Hikes Unchanged by Recent Data | B
US
U.S. Home Sales Fell for Ninth Straight Month in October | W
As Republicans Take Command in House, Fight Over 2023 Farm Bill Looms | W
Geopolitics & trade
North Korea’s Kim Reveals Daughter to Public at ICBM Launch | B
Larry Summers Warns Very Risky for US to Aim at ‘Tearing China Down’ | B
Industries & companies
Airlines: What Do the Worst (and Best) Airports Look Like? Ask United Airlines | W
Autos: Tesla recalls 321,000 U.S. vehicles over rear light issue | R
Media: Musk’s Twitter Fix-It Team Fades Out as Billionaire Says Transition Is Almost Done | B
Retail: Home Depot and Lowe's are booming in a housing market bust | C
Retail: Follow these rules from experts to get the most out of Black Friday | C
Tech: Why Everything in Tech Seems to Be Collapsing at Once | The Atlantic
Theme Parks: Disney Parks’ Ride Stoppages and Wait Times Grow as Ticket Prices Rise | W
Corporate finance
How Did AT&T’s $100 Billion Time Warner Deal Go So Wrong? | N
Climate
COP27 Agrees on Loss and Damage Fund for Vulnerable Countries, Officials Say | W
Crypto
They Lived Together, Worked Together and Lost Billions Together: Inside Sam Bankman-Fried’s Doomed FTX Empire | W
FTX launches strategic review, seeks court relief to pay critical vendors | C
Beyond markets
Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes sentenced to over 11 years in prison | C
November 18 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Consumers, Chips & The Oceans
Consumers are still spending robustly in many categories, as the surprisingly strong retail sales report for October showed. But Walmart and Target brass speaking on Q3 conference calls described heightened budget consciousness across income demographics. And while consumers have income, their balance sheets have been weakening as they take on more debt. … Are semiconductor stocks becoming attractive at their depressed valuations? Perhaps, but news this week reminds us why valuations are so depressed—demand is weak and analysts pessimistic. … Also: The oceans are about to get greener if innovative solutions employing AI, 3D printing, and low-tech dragnets succeed.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 15.
Markets
Wall Street seen opening higher but U.S. recession priced in | R
‘Exhausted’ sellers are behind the market’s strength | C
Central banks
Fed's Bullard says rate hikes have had 'only limited effects' on inflation so far | C
ECB begins great cash mop-up as banks repay 296 bln euros of loans | R
Energy
Nord Stream: Sweden says explosives found at site of Russian pipelines | C
Oil heads for second weekly decline as demand concerns weigh | R
'Indiscriminate use of hydrogen' could slow energy transition: Report | C
US
Stagnant Scientific Productivity Holding Back Growth | W
Inflation and Unemployment Both Make You Miserable, but Maybe Not Equally | W
60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck heading into 2022 holiday | C
Fearing Future Losses, More Republicans Look to Move On From Trump | W
China
Column: China’s fast-growing renewables limit coal generation | R
Industries & companies
Autos: GM investor day: Barra expects EV profit to be comparable to gas vehicles by 2025 | C
Media: What Elon Musk memo to Twitter workers means for his FTC troubles | MSNBC
Media: After Elon Musk's ultimatum, Twitter employees start exiting | R
Retail: Early Black Friday 'deals' abound, but actual bargains are scarce | R
Tech: Meta Employees, Security Guards Fired for Hijacking User Accounts | W
Crypto
Opinion | Is This the End Game for Crypto? | NYT
Crypto firm Multicoin says contagion fallout from FTX will continue | C
Interview: Fallen crypto CEO Sam Bankman-Fried opens up about FTX, Alameda Research, and his regrets | Vox
FTX filing reveals slipshod accounting, freewheeling expenses, perks | C
FTX Disclosed Related-Party Transactions but Didn’t Name Names | W
Beyond markets
Taylor Swift public ticket sale canceled over extreme demand, Ticketmaster says | C
November 17 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Consumers, Chips & The Oceans
Consumers are still spending robustly in many categories, as the surprisingly strong retail sales report for October showed. But Walmart and Target brass speaking on Q3 conference calls described heightened budget consciousness across income demographics. And while consumers have income, their balance sheets have been weakening as they take on more debt. … Are semiconductor stocks becoming attractive at their depressed valuations? Perhaps, but news this week reminds us why valuations are so depressed—demand is weak and analysts pessimistic. … Also: The oceans are about to get greener if innovative solutions employing AI, 3D printing, and low-tech dragnets succeed.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 15.
Markets
Stocks Slip After Retail Sales Top Forecasts | W
Central banks
Reducing Inflation Without a Recession Might Not Be Feasible, Fed Official Says | W
Fed's Waller says he's open to a half-point hike at December meeting | C
Yellen Meets China’s Central Bank Governor as U.S. Seeks to Repair Ties With Beijing | W
US
U.S. Consumers Show Strength With Jump in Retail Sales | W
Republicans win U.S. House majority, setting stage for divided government | R
How to stop inflation | WT
Industries & companies
Autos: Elon Musk Recently Floated Possibility of Having a Successor at Tesla, a Board Member Says | W
Home Builders: Home-Builder Stocks Stage Big Rebound | W
Tech: Micron to Cut Production of Memory Chips | W
Theme Parks: Disney World Announces Another Round of Price Increases | W
Geopolitics & trade
Missile Blast in Poland Risked Russia-NATO Clash Before Both Sides Dialed Back | W
Targeting of Ukrainian energy grid is a war crime, Pentagon says | C
Putin calls for price controls as Russian car sales crash to record low | R
Analysis: China's freeze on Taiwan contact fuels worry as tensions build | R
Crypto
Gemini, BlockFi, Genesis announcing new restrictions as FTX contagion spreads | C
Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX, and the beginning of the crypto ice age | Vox
FTX wanted to let investors borrow to trade derivatives: CFTC head | C
How Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX-Alameda crypto empire vanished overnight | C
Beyond markets
ESG: BlackRock’s Hard Place | National Review
November 16 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Inflation & Financial Stability
The inflation-is-peaking euphoria that’s driven the stock market skyward in recent days adds to our confidence that the bear market bottomed on October 12. … The latest batch of inflation indicators was mixed but overall suggests progress in the right direction, which may mean the Fed has done enough tightening already. … Don’t fear systemic effects from the bursting of the cryptocurrency bubble—US banks are just fine. … Also: Melissa examines what the Fed thinks about the resilience of the US financial system, recapping points from its latest Financial Stability Report.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 15.
Markets
S&P 500 closes higher after another lighter-than-expected inflation report, Nasdaq jumps 1.4% | C
Wall Street gains on inflation data, but rocky on geopolitics | R
Central banks
Banking giants and New York Fed start 12-week digital dollar pilot | R
Energy
Russian Oil Exports Hold Up Despite Impending EU Ban | W
Half of France’s Nuclear Plants Are Off-Line | N
US
U.S. Supplier Price Increases Eased in October, Taking Pressure Off Inflation | W
Mortgage Rates Are High Because Nobody Is Buying Mortgages | W
Household debt soars at fastest pace in 15 years as credit card use surges, Fed report says | C
Republicans on Verge of Retaking House as Counting Continues | W
As Trump readies possible 2024 White House run, GOP megadonors back DeSantis, Youngkin, other Republicans | C
Uncle Sam is playing the same game as broke, disgraced crypto king | P
Gen Z Really Does Have It Harder Than Millennials | Manhattan Institute
China
China’s Economy Takes a Deeper Hit as Retail Sales Turn Negative | W
Japan
Japan’s Economy Shrinks Unexpectedly, Hit by a Weak Yen and Rising Inflation | N
Geopolitics & trade
Biden-Xi Talks Mark Shift in U.S.-China Ties Toward Managing Fierce Competition | W
The U.S.’s Struggle to Wean Itself From Chinese Solar Power | W
G20 Leaders Meet in Bali as Global Economy Faces Multiple Threats | N
Poland says a Russian-made missile fell inside their country, killing 2 | C
Industries & companies
Autos: Consumer Reports: New technologies make EVs less reliable | C
Autos: Tesla cuts delivery waiting time for all model 3, model Y cars | R
Autos: Musk's all-nighters at Twitter raise concern for Tesla investors | R
Autos: Ford says making its own parts for electric vehicles could offset job losses | C
Retail: Walmart Sales Rise as Retail Giant Gains More Shoppers | W
Tech: Tech stocks have been crushed. What's next for the FAANGs? | NN
Tech: Microsoft, Meta, others face rising drought risk to their data centers | C
Corporate finance
Estée Lauder Agrees to Buy Tom Ford Brand in $2.8 Billion Deal | N
FTX
How Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX-Alameda empire vanished overnight | C
FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Attempts to Raise Fresh Cash Despite Bankruptcy | W
FTX’s Collapse Casts a Pall on ‘Effective Altruism’ Movement | N
Fed’s Michael Barr Says Crypto Turmoil Highlights Potential Risks to Financial System | W
Climate
New Climate Early Warning System Aims to Plug Weather Blind Spots Around the World | W
November 14 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Earnings & Inflation
Economic recessions invariably produce earnings recessions, but earnings slowdowns and downturns can occur without economic recessions: Nominal GDP and revenues growth can stay strong as profit margins narrow, causing earnings growth to falter. That’s what seems to be happening now, with the earnings weakness looking like that of a soft, not hard, landing. Whether that changes up ahead depends much on what happens to profit margins. … In this context, Joe discusses the latest earnings results for Q3, explaining how to interpret the results supplied by two different data providers. …And: A look at the components of October’s CPI results, which cheered the stock market at the end of last week. ... Also: Feshbach sees trading range ahead.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 7.
Markets
These currencies have tanked this year — and one is down over 75% against the dollar | C
Central banks
Japanese Inflation Shows Signs of Easing, Kuroda Says | W
Global
IMF says global economic outlook getting 'gloomier', risks abound | R
G-20 Discord Likely to Thwart Efforts to Boost Sagging Global Economy | W
U.S. may skirt recession in 2023, Europe not so lucky - Morgan Stanley | R
Energy & climate
The global energy crisis may be accelerating decarbonisation efforts, says Fatih Birol | E
'Vaccination-style' intervention needed for UK energy crisis: Ovo CEO | C
The 'world's largest floating wind farm' produces its first power | C
Used-Car Dealer Tricolor Became an ESG Favorite Amid Customer Complaints and Expensive Cars | BR
US
House Majority Undecided as Democrats Keep Senate Control | W
Labor Market Mystery: Where Are the Older Gen Z Workers? | W
China
China Dials Back Property Restrictions in Bid to Reverse Economic Slide | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Ford vs. GM: Same industry, two increasingly different companies | C
Retail: Retailers Are Already Offering More Holiday Sales. What to Watch. | BR
Retail: Retailers' biggest holiday wish is to get rid of all that excess inventory | C
Tech: Tech Companies Won Big in the Midterm Elections. Here’s Why. | BR
Geopolitics & trade
Biden, Xi stress need to work together as they meet for talks | R
Germany is open to trade with China — but we're not stupid, vice chancellor says | C
On what terms could the war in Ukraine stop? | E
FTX
The FTX debacle makes SEC Chair Gensler look bad—again | Fortune
FTX’s Digital Coin Was at Heart of Crypto Exchange’s Fall | W
Sam Bankman-Fried’s Alameda quietly used FTX customer funds without raising alarm bells, say sources | C
Beyond markets
Elon Musk says 'I have too much work on my plate' | R
Can You Tell Whether This Headline Was Written by a Robot? | W
November 12 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Transports, Oil & Climate Change
Does the recent rally in the S&P Transports signal that investors think transportation stocks have been beaten down enough so far this year? Will they continue to chug uphill despite the drag from slowing fundamentals? Jackie examines the challenges up ahead for shippers, truckers, railroads, and air freight and logistics companies; airlines, though, seem headed for blue skies. … Also: A look at the oil market’s tug of war between China’s downward pressure and Russia’s upward pressure on prices. … And: Today’s Disruptive Technologies segment focuses on news from the UN’s international climate change conference, COP27.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 7.
Markets
Stocks Extend Rally After Inflation Slowdown | W
Nasdaq adds 1.9%, S&P 500 closes nearly 1% higher and notches best week since June | C
Wild Stock Spike Revives Is-This-the-Bottom Debate for Third Time This Year | B
Central banks
Krugman Says the Fed Should Pause Rate Hikes, Has Done Enough | B
Energy
Growing number of Germans won't be left in dark with blackout courses | R
EXCLUSIVE India can buy as much Russian oil as it wants, outside price cap, Yellen says | R
US
Inflation Report: What Costs More—and Less | W
Arizona Senate: Mark Kelly beats Trump GOP pick Blake Masters, NBC News projects | C
Trump on defense after weak GOP midterms, raising questions about 2024 | C
China
China Eases Zero-Covid Rules as Economic Toll and Frustrations Mount | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. Downgrades Russia to Nonmarket Economy | W
Industries & companies
Consumer discretionary: A first look at Amazon's new delivery drone | C
Media: Disney plans layoffs, hiring freeze, cost cuts, CEO Bob Chapek says in memo | C
Utilities: The U.S. Electric System Is Leaning on Customers to Avoid Blackouts | W
Crypto
Exclusive: At least $1 billion of client funds missing at FTX | R
FTX Files for Bankruptcy, CEO Sam Bankman-Fried Resigns | W
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried says he is in the Bahamas | R
Climate
This Former BlackRock Executive Says ESG Investment Model Is Broken | W
Carbon Market Under Pressure to Deliver Billions in Climate Funding | W
Beyond markets
From Elon Musk to Sam Bankman-Fried, a bad week for market geniuses | C
November 11 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Transports, Oil & Climate Change
Does the recent rally in the S&P Transports signal that investors think transportation stocks have been beaten down enough so far this year? Will they continue to chug uphill despite the drag from slowing fundamentals? Jackie examines the challenges up ahead for shippers, truckers, railroads, and air freight and logistics companies; airlines, though, seem headed for blue skies. … Also: A look at the oil market’s tug of war between China’s downward pressure and Russia’s upward pressure on prices. … And: Today’s Disruptive Technologies segment focuses on news from the UN’s international climate change conference, COP27.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 7.
Markets
Wall Street Goes Crazy: The Numbers | FO
Chinese Stocks Surge as Beijing Eases Some Covid Restrictions | W
Goldman Sachs CEO says he expects a 'reopening' in capital markets next year | C
Rising Interest Rates Hit Banks’ Bond Holdings | W
Central banks
Fed officials welcome October CPI but still see tighter policy ahead | C
Inflation Report Leaves Fed on Track for 0.5-Point Rate Rise in December | W
US
October Inflation Report Shows Consumer Prices Rose 7.7% From Year Earlier | W
It may be cheaper to eat out on Thanksgiving as grocery prices soar | C
Mortgage rates fall sharply to under 7% after inflation eases | C
What midterm voting results tell us about the economy going forward | FO
Midterm Elections Point to Closely Divided House as Voters Shift in Pivotal Districts | W
Midterms: We may not know who controls the Senate until December | C
'Start adding zeroes': Big money expected to pour into Georgia midterm runoff | R
Biden says he plans to run again, to make it final in early 2023 | R
Europe
Price Rises Are Helping European Manufacturers Defy a Downturn | W
China
China Eases Zero-Covid Rules as Economic Toll and Frustrations Mount | W
Geopolitics & trade
Global shipping industry faces a new problem — too many containers | C
Ukrainian official describes chaotic Russian withdrawal from strategic city | R
Corporate finance
SoftBank Posts Profit of More Than $21 Billion After Selling Alibaba Shares | W
Climate
COP27 delegates in Egypt battle a growing list of logistics nightmares | C
Beyond markets
Read Elon Musk's first email to all Twitter employees | C
Healthy infants face considerable risk of RSV hospitalization: study | C
November 10 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Transports, Oil & Climate Change
Does the recent rally in the S&P Transports signal that investors think transportation stocks have been beaten down enough so far this year? Will they continue to chug uphill despite the drag from slowing fundamentals? Jackie examines the challenges up ahead for shippers, truckers, railroads, and air freight and logistics companies; airlines, though, seem headed for blue skies. … Also: A look at the oil market’s tug of war between China’s downward pressure and Russia’s upward pressure on prices. … And: Today’s Disruptive Technologies segment focuses on news from the UN’s international climate change conference, COP27.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 7.
Markets
Wall Street layoffs pick up steam as Citigroup and Barclays cut hundreds of workers | C
China Stocks Slide as Covid Curbs Temper Reopening Hopes | B
US
Frustrated Republicans Try to Explain Lack of Midterm ‘Red Wave’ | W
October CPI seen showing inflation up even as some goods prices cool | C
Democrats Hold Off Steep Losses by Driving Turnout and Winning Independent Voters | W
Control of Congress Remains at Stake as Democrats Fend Off Anticipated ‘Red Wave’ | W
China
China Producer Prices Turn Negative in Warning Sign for Global Economy | W
Column: China reopening may add inflation headache | R
Under Xi Jinping, Women in China Have Given Up Gains | W
Column: China’s diesel exports recover but not enough to reverse global shortage | R
Emerging
Korea Unveils $7 Billion in Financing to Help Property Market | B
Industries & companies
Autos: Tesla stock hits 2-year low after Musk sells $4 bln worth of shares | R
Real Estate: Redfin Shuts Home-Flipping Business, Lays Off 13% of Staff in Slumping Housing Market | W
Geopolitics & trade
Russia says troops leaving strategic Kherson, Ukraine doubts full pullout | R
Russia Orders Withdrawal From Kherson, Only Regional Ukrainian Capital It Held | W
November 09 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Political Cycles, Earnings Estimates & Fiscal Fatigue
The stock market historically has performed well after midterm elections and during third years of presidential cycles, but none of these positive political cyclical trends will make much difference if inflation remains elevated, which would force the Fed to cause a hard landing of the economy. … Also: Analysts’ earnings estimates are falling mostly because their expectations for margins are falling. We review the relevant data for the S&P 500 sectors. … And: How fiscal policy has contributed to the deficit and inflation.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 7.
Markets
Investors face unclear outcome in midterms, with questions over spending, regulation | R
Oil prices fall 2.5% on U.S. inventory build, China COVID worries | R
Central banks
Some Investors Bet Fed Could Lift Rates to Two-Decade High | W
US
Republican 'red wave' turns into a ripple, Georgia Senate headed to runoff | R
Midterm Election Could Make Democrats Latest Governing Party to Pay Price for Inflation | W
Midterm election results: Trump candidates disappoint on Election Day | C
We’re using 1960s guidance to measure poverty in 2022 | The Hill
Maxwell Frost will be the first Gen Z member of Congress | C
Europe
Europe Doubles Down on Big Government | W
Europe's retailers strive to keep prices low to win struggling shoppers | R
Japan
Japanese Companies Are Making Less but Profiting More Thanks to Weak Yen | W
China
China Producer Prices Turn Negative in Warning Sign for Global Economy | W
China’s Business Elite See the Country That Let Them Thrive Slipping Away | N
Geopolitics & trade
Treasury Chief Janet Yellen Heads to India as U.S. Seeks to Deepen Ties | W
Industries & companies
Communications Services: Meta laying off more than 11,000 employees: Read Zuckerberg's letter | C
Media: Elon Musk’s Twitter is a case study of how not to lay people off | Vox
Media: Elon Musk took over a struggling Twitter and has quickly made it worse | C
Climate
US launches carbon offset program to help developing countries | C
China Resists Climate Pressure From West, but Makes Gains on Its Own | W
November 08 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Labor, Productivity & Wages
For a variety of reasons, there’s a severe mismatch between the demand for and supply of labor in the US. That’s created a maelstrom in the market, with extraordinary levels of turnover: One third of payroll employees have quit their jobs over the past 12 months, most for higher-paying ones. That’s driving up wage inflation and driving down productivity. … But we still expect productivity to recover this decade as businesses react by investing in productivity-boosting technologies—our “Roaring 2020s” scenario. … While the latest data show some moderation in wage inflation, it probably won’t continue to moderate sustainably until turnover subsides.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 7.
Markets
U.S. stocks end higher, Meta jumps as investors eye midterms | R
Stocks Rise Ahead of Midterms, Inflation Data | W
China reopening hopes keep dollar on guard | R
Column: Rebound in China crude oil imports less impressive than it looks: Russell | R
Energy
EU Energy Crisis Sparked by Ukraine War to Create Blackouts in Poor Countries | B
Sanctions on Russian Energy Loom Over Oil Market | W
Central banks
Fed announces another rate hike. But inflation is even more painful. | USA
Fed Will Stick to the Task of Curbing Inflation, Thomas Barkin Says | B
Despite What You’re Told, There Are No ‘Bubbles’ and Certainly No ‘Fed Bubbles’ | FO
BOJ debated impact of future exit from easy policy amid rising prices | R
US
Homeowners have lost over $1 trillion in equity since May | C
Inflation Strains Voters Across Income Levels Ahead of Midterm Elections | W
More Professionals Need to Get Second Jobs Because of Inflation | W
Biden warns on risk to democracy, Trump hints at another run on eve of midterms | R
Musk encourages independents to vote Republican ahead of midterms | C
China
China Weighs Gradual Zero-Covid Exit but Proceeds With Caution, Without Timeline | W
Guangzhou's COVID outbreak deepens as more lockdowns loom in China | R
China’s Exports Drop Sharply as Global Economy Slows | W
Who Is Li Qiang? What Does Xi's New No. 2 Mean for China? | B
China's super-rich see fortunes plunge as economy slows | R
Geopolitics & trade
From Teslas to BMWs, cars are piling up on land and sea at German port | C
Germany likely to block Chinese takeover of Elmos' chip production | R
Corporate finance
Foxconn to become biggest shareholder in Lordstown Motors with up to $170 mln investment | R
Walgreens Unit to Buy Summit Health | W
Beyond markets
Covid’s Drag on the Workforce Proves Persistent. ‘It Sets Us Back.’ | W
November 07 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Powell Is From Mars, Brainard Is From Venus
Has the stock market been voting early? It‘s up 5% since the S&P 500’s October 12 bottom—which may turn out to be the bear market’s ultimate bottom. Tomorrow’s midterm elections may further boost stock prices in coming months if history is a guide. Our soft-landing economic outlook, if it pans out (60% subjective odds), may be another wind at the stock market’s back. … A headwind last week was Fed Chair Powell’s peak hawkishness, but we expect to hear counterbalancing views from other Fed officials now that their quiet period is over. … Much now—both the economic and financial market outlooks—hinges on inflation reports in coming months. ... On inflation, Brainard makes sense. ... And: Dr. Ed reviews “Don’t Worry Darling” (+ +).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 31.
Energy
Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting | E
Frackers Say Oil Production Slowing in the Shale Patch | W
Central banks
Housing-Price Inflation Is a Problem. The Federal Reserve Can’t Solve It. | BR
US
Elevated Inflation Presents Risk to U.S. Economy, Fed Report Finds | W
Why the October Jobs Report Is So Strong Despite Tech Layoffs | W
Midterm Election Campaigning Intensifies Across U.S. in Closing Days | W
China
China's exports shrink in October, badly missing expectations for growth | C
The never-ending campaign against graft in China | E
Japan
Japan’s bond-market peg could snap | E
Geopolitics & trade
Senior White House Official Involved in Undisclosed Talks With Top Putin Aides | W
Ukraine warns of more Russian attacks on energy infrastructure | R
Who wins from the unravelling of Sino-American trade? | E
Industries & companies
Communications Services: Meta could begin large-scale layoffs this week, report says | C
Media: Twitter Is Elon Musk’s Biggest Test—and Tesla’s Biggest Challenge. How They’ll Make It Work. | BR
Retail: Inflation, Recession Fears Have Some Holiday Shoppers Trading Down | W
Tech: Apple warns Covid restrictions in China are hurting iPhone production | C
Climate
Climate: COP27 opens with a rallying call for rich nations to pay up | C
The world is missing its lofty climate targets. Time for some realism | E
November 05 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Powell, China, Consumers & AI
Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference yesterday deflated the stock market, but we think the S&P 500 bottomed on October 12 and see a few potentially uplifting developments to come. … Also: What might it take for the China MSCI to start performing better? Jackie considers this question and examines two big issues holding it back. … And: The shift in consumer purchasing patterns from stuff to services was apparent in the Q3 earnings of companies affected both positively and negatively. … Finally, today’s Disruptive Technologies piece showcases the rapidly advancing technology of AI.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 31.
Markets
Stocks Finish Higher After U.S. Jobs Report | W
Goldman Wealth Strategist Sees Buying Opportunity in Stock Slump | B
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Swings to Loss, Stung by Battered Market | W
Climate
Climate Change Eclipsed by Inflation, Crime, Abortion in US Midterm Races | B
Climate activists block private jets at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport | R
Central banks
Fed Watchers Put ‘Finger in the Air’ and See Rate Peak Above 5% | B
China Investigates Central Bank Deputy Governor in First Major Probe Since Party Congress | W
US
Elevated Inflation Presents Risk to U.S. Economy, Fed Report Finds | W
Why the October Jobs Report Is So Strong Despite Tech Layoffs | W
Jobs Report Shows Payrolls Grew 261,000 in October | W
House hunting this weekend? There's more out there now | C
Obama warns of 'dangerous' U.S. political climate ahead of midterms | R
China
Possible China Covid Reopening Prompts Jittery Markets, Intense Speculation | W
China vows to continue with 'dynamic-clearing' COVID strategy | R
Geopolitics & trade
North Korea Shoots Ballistic Missiles Off Its West Coast | W
Train crosses North Korea border into Russia after arms report, think tank says | R
Ukrainian forces brace for bloody fight for Kherson | R
Ukraine Curbs Power Use as Russian Strikes Take Toll on Electric Grid | W
Industries & companies
Media: Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey speaks out after mass layoffs | C
Media: Elon Musk Says Twitter Has Had Massive Revenue Drop as Layoffs Begin | W
Retail: Travel has edge over shopping this holiday season amid inflation | C
Retail: Inflation to dampen holiday spending, retail trade group forecasts | C
Tech: For Chip Makers, the Flip from Shortage to Glut Intensifies | W
Crypto
Crypto Firms, Executives Step Up Campaign Donations, Lobbying Ahead of Midterms | W
Beyond markets
This School Took Away Smartphones. The Kids Don’t Mind. | W
What Moneyball Has Done to American Culture | The Atlantic
November 04 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Powell, China, Consumers & AI
Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference yesterday deflated the stock market, but we think the S&P 500 bottomed on October 12 and see a few potentially uplifting developments to come. … Also: What might it take for the China MSCI to start performing better? Jackie considers this question and examines two big issues holding it back. … And: The shift in consumer purchasing patterns from stuff to services was apparent in the Q3 earnings of companies affected both positively and negatively. … Finally, today’s Disruptive Technologies piece showcases the rapidly advancing technology of AI.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 31.
Markets
Stocks Finish Lower After Fed Signals Higher Rates | W
Traders scramble for protection after Fed spooks markets | R
Energy
Exclusive: G7 coalition has agreed to set fixed price for Russian oil | R
Oil prices drop as demand fears dominate | R
U.S. sells last batch of emergency reserve oil from historic release | R
Central banks
Fed’s Hard Line on Interest Rates Fuels Bond Rout | W
Bank of England raises rates by most since 1989 even as long recession looms | R
Global
Barclays cuts China GDP after forecasting U.S., Europe recession | C
US
Jobless Claims Remain Low in Tight U.S. Labor Market | W
The guy who inspired the "quiet quitting" movement is back to working 50 hours a week | qz.com
Geopolitics & trade
Taiwan, U.S. to hold in person trade talks next week | C
The Messy Unwinding of the New World Order—in Charts | W
Industries & companies
Media: General Mills, Audi and Pfizer Join Growing List of Companies Pausing Twitter Ads | W
Media: Twitter to begin layoffs Friday, days after Elon Musk's $44 billion takeover | C
Central banks
You Can Thank the Fed for Boosting the $1.5 Billion Powerball Jackpot | W
November 03 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Powell, China, Consumers & AI
Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference yesterday deflated the stock market, but we think the S&P 500 bottomed on October 12 and see a few potentially uplifting developments to come. … Also: What might it take for the China MSCI to start performing better? Jackie considers this question and examines two big issues holding it back. … And: The shift in consumer purchasing patterns from stuff to services was apparent in the Q3 earnings of companies affected both positively and negatively. … Finally, today’s Disruptive Technologies piece showcases the rapidly advancing technology of AI.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 31.
Markets
Stocks Fall After Fed’s Interest-Rate Decision | W
Strategists See EM Asia Getting Sold as Dollar Back on Ascent | B
Big Shorts Are Quickly Turning Dangerous in China’s Wild Market | B
China Says It’s Sticking to Covid Zero, But That Hasn’t Stopped Stock Frenzy | B
Central banks
Fed Statement Tracker | W
Federal Reserve Approves Fourth 0.75-Point Rate Rise, Hints at Smaller Hikes | W
Fed's Powell: 'Ultimate level' of rates likely higher than earlier estimates | R
Fed rate hikes could go even further than expected as Powell commits to stomp out inflation | C
Fed's Powell: 'Soft landing' chances have narrowed | R
Jerome Powell’s Not for Turning—Yet | W
To Solve Inflation, First Solve Deficits, This Theory Advises | W
Energy
Nord Stream 1 operator says it found craters at damaged pipeline site | R
CEOs fixing Biden’s Saudi oil mess because he won’t | P
US
There Is a Painless Way to Fix Inflation | Time
Biden blames extreme MAGA Republicans for intimidating voters and election officials, calling it ‘corrosive’ to democracy | C
China
Who Is China’s New No. 2? A Business Pragmatist or a Party Loyalist? | W
China Tells Officials to ‘Resolutely Adhere’ to Covid Zero | B
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. cautioned Germany against a Chinese controlling stake in Hamburg port | R
North Korea fires multiple ballistic missiles, residents in Japan told to shelter | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: The Weird-Looking, Fuel-Efficient Planes You Could Be Flying In One Day | W
Media: Netflix With Ads Launching as Talks Continue With Studios Over Content | W
Technology
Musk Plans to Eliminate Half of Twitter Jobs to Cut Costs | B
Climate
Climate Change Costs Are Eating Up the Money to Avert It | B
November 02 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Powell, Inflation & Home Prices
After Fed Chair Powell’s press conference today, investors are bound to see more light at the end of the tightening tunnel. We’re hoping he’ll suggest that just two more 75bps turns of the federal-funds-rate screw—one announced today and another in December—may be tight enough. … Also: We assess the latest persistently high inflation data with an eye toward assessing whether our inflation forecast for the rest of this year is overly optimistic. … And: Housing prices are falling in the wake of rising mortgage rates. But we don’t see the market crashing as in 2007, Melissa explains. The downward drivers then and now are nothing alike.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 31.
Markets
Stocks finish lower as Wall Street braces for key Fed decision | C
China Markets Rally After Unconfirmed Social Posts on Reopening | B
Treasury: Series I bond rate is 6.89% through April 2023 | C
Central banks
Fed seen raising rates by three-quarters of a point, may slow pace ahead | C
Column: Fed may be alert to favoured yield curve alarm | R
Traders Expect Higher Interest Rates to Stay for Foreseeable Future | W
US
Food Prices Soar, and So Do Companies’ Profits | N
JOLTS September 2022 | C
Marcus vs Mortgage: High-Yield Savings Account Rates Beat Some Home Loans | B
Midterm Elections 2022: 5 Key Races That Could Impact Election Security | B
With deep recession coming, Biden prepares by blaming Republicans | P
Europe
Europe Braces for a Winter Without Russian Gas | N
China
Auditor exodus at embattled China property firms triggers governance concerns | R
Emerging
Brazil protests escalate, disrupting fuel, grain and meat industries | R
Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro Pledges to Respect Constitution After Election Loss | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Toyota cuts output target amid chip crunch as profit tumbles 25% | R
Financials: U.S. banks processed about $1.2 billion in ransomware payments in 2021 | C
Media: Elon Musk Wants More Paying Twitter Users, Hinting at $8 a Month for Verified Accounts | W
Pharma: Pfizer CEO reveals growth plan as company faces up to $18 billion revenue hit | C
Corporate finance
DuPont pulls the plug on $5.2 bln buyout of Rogers on clearance issues | R
China Evergrande unit gets notice for $4.48 bln loan from Shengjing Bank | R
Beyond markets
Taylor Swift holds top 10 spots in Billboard Hot 100, announces tour | C
November 01 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Back To The Old Normal?
The unconventional ultra-easy monetary policy that reigned from the Great Financial Crisis to the Great Virus Crisis—a.k.a. the “New Normal”—aimed to stimulate the economy and shore up inflation. Now the “Old Normal” is back, characterized by more conventional tight monetary policy aimed at taming inflation, even if that kickstarts a recession. … But this post-pandemic business cycle isn’t following the usual Old Normal script—instead featuring an oddly quick snapback of GDP growth and oddly vigorous comeback of inflation. … Today, we look at what’s been happening in various segments of the economy this year and forecast what’s in store for 2023.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 31.
Markets
European stocks hit six-week high on hopes for rate hike slowdown | R
Dollar drops as optimism spreads before Fed and BoE decisions | R
Energy
Biden Calls for Penalties on Oil-and-Gas Companies’ ‘Windfall’ Profits | W
Joe Biden threatens higher taxes on oil companies amid high gas prices | C
Energy crisis: Next winter will be worse than this one, oil CEOs warn | C
Global
Factory output weakens on widespread slowdown, China COVID curbs | R
Central banks
Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates’ Coming Path | W
The Federal Reserve Has a Secret Weapon to Fight Inflation | B
US
Report on Worker Demand to Indicate if Labor Market Cooled Further | W
The Accountant Shortage Threatens Capitalism's Future | B
Immigration and Education Are Key to Fixing the US Supply Chain | B
34% Of Millennials Report Being Behind On Their Retirement Savings | C
Meet the 6 Latina GOP Candidates That Are Driving Democrats Nuts | townhall.com
Bigger Affordable Care Act Subsidies Likely to Boost Enrollment | W
Europe
Eurozone Inflation Rate Rises to 10.7% as Recession Looms | W
China
Chinese Property Bonds Set Record Lows as Investors Lose Faith | W
Fearing COVID, workers flee from Foxconn's vast Chinese iPhone plant | R
Apple iPhone maker Foxconn says no Covid deaths at China plant | C
China Docks Final Module to Space Station | W
Emerging
Brazilian President Remains Silent a Day After Losing Election | W
Geopolitics & trade
Biden Is All-In on Taking Out China, Whatever the Consequences | foreignpolicy.com
China's Xi greets Vietnamese ally with ceremony, call for defiance
Ukraine Races to Restore Electricity, Water Supplies After Russian Strikes | W
North Korea demands the U.S., South Korea halt joint military drills | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: Delta pilots vote in favor of potential strike as contract talks drag on | C
Autos: Chip Shortages Still Plague Toyota, Some Other Auto Makers | W
Pharma: Pfizer RSV vaccine given to pregnant moms protects newborns, company data shows | C
Corporate finance
J&J to buy heart pump maker Abiomed in $16.6 billion deal | C
Beyond markets
LinkedIn Survey Finds Work-From-Home Trend May Have Peaked | B
October 31 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Bear Bottoms
The bear market has clawed 30% out of stock valuations, returning the S&P 500’s forward P/E to its historical average of 15. But October 12 may have marked the bear’s bottom. If GDP and inflation perform as we expect and the Fed does what everyone expects, that bottom should hold. … We think the stock market has discounted a soft-landing scenario (to which we give a 60% subjective probability) but is nervous about a hard landing (40%). … Also: The MegaCap-8 stocks’ outsized influence over their resident indexes has been diminished. … Movie review: “All Quiet on the Western Front” (+ + +).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 24.
Markets
Good News: Bad S&P 500 Earnings Are Playing Into the Fed’s Hand | B
Rising Markets Seem to See the Fed Easing. It’s Too Early for That. | BR
Small-Cap Stocks Have Rarely Been So Depressed. 7 to Buy Now. | BR
Municipal Bonds Are Offering the Yields You’re Looking For. Here’s Where to Look. | BR
The Year That Changed How Wealth Grows | BR
U.S. Pensions Take a Fresh Look at China | W
Energy
Column: U.S. diesel shortage increasingly likely until economy slows | R
Diesel market in perfect storm as prices surge and supplies dwindle | C
Natural-Gas Prices Have Plunged Into Autumn | W
Central banks
Column: Fed may be alert to favoured yield curve alarm | R
Goldman Sachs Now Sees Fed Rates Peaking at 5% in March | B
Fed and BOE Prepare 75 Basis-Point Salvos on Inflation: Eco Week | B
Job Markets Are Defying Central Bankers’ Efforts to Cool Demand | B
Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer | W
US
Joe Biden attempts the biggest overhaul of America’s economy in decades | E
3 Potential Outcomes for the Midterms—and What Each Scenario Would Mean | BR
Inflation, Economy Are Top of Mind for US Voters in Midterm Poll | B
The Midterm Elections Are Almost Here. 5 Key Areas to Watch. | BR
How much is long COVID reducing labor force participation? Not much (so far) (brookings.edu)
Senate Republicans want the SEC to explain why staff are quitting | R
Europe
Storm clouds loom for Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s new prime minister | E
China
China Nods to Even Tighter Ties With Russia in Xi Jinping’s Third Term | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.N., Turkey Race to Save Ukraine Grain Deal | W
EU urges Russia to revoke Ukraine Black Sea grain deal suspension | C
Factbox: What is known about the drone attack on Crimea? | R
Russia says it recovers drones used in Black Sea fleet attack in Crimea | R
Russia's Lavrov needles Biden over Cuban missile crisis and Ukraine | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Where Are the Air Bags? Russia’s Hobbled Auto Industry Struggles to Reboot | W
Materials: Steel Companies’ Profits Hurt by Falling Prices | W
Retail: JPMorgan, Macy’s and Other Companies Reveal What They Pay Workers as Deadline Looms | W
Tech: Digital Dollars Could Be a Boon for Amazon, Alphabet, and Other Tech Companies | BR
Tech: Rate Squeeze Punishes Once-Triumphant Tech Stocks | W
Corporate finance
A brief history of Twitter: From its founding in 2006 to Musk takeover | C
Beyond markets
The attack at the Pelosis’ home was part of a dangerous pattern | E
October 29 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China and Semiconductors
Today, our focus is the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment manufacturing industries, both down on their luck these days. The US Commerce Department has barred the door to one of their major markets, China. Yet the CEOs have been curiously acquiescent. … Jackie examines the administration’s possible motivations and the impacts on specific players in the space. … This bad news couldn’t have hit at a worse time: The semiconductor cycle may be heading south. Earnings estimates have been getting slashed and stocks battered.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 24.
Markets
Dow closes 800 points higher on Friday, registers fourth straight week of gains | C
Dow Jumps More Than 800 Points as Apple Gains 7.6% | W
Why the Most Common Gas Price Is Far From Average | W
Central banks
U.S. data brings some encouraging signs for inflation-weary Fed | R
Opinion | The Federal Reserve deserves a new variation on the Peter Principle | WP
Global
International Discord Undercuts Global Growth, Worsens Inflation | W
US
U.S. Wages Rose Rapidly in Third Quarter, Keeping Pressure on Inflation | W
U.S. pending home sales tumble in September | R
Consumer Spending Rose in September as Prices for Rent, Transportation Increased | W
Rise in U.S. consumer spending beats expectations; wage inflation slows | R
Credit-Card Debt Returns to Levels Before Covid-19 Pandemic | W
Opinion | Republicans Have No Inflation Plan | N
Europe
Discontent Rises in Europe as Economic War With Russia Pushes Up Cost of Living | W
China
China Nods to Even Tighter Ties With Russia in Xi Jinping’s Third Term | W
Shanghai Disneyland reduces operations as China tightens COVID curbs | R
Japan
Japan Is the One Place Where Inflation Might Be About Right | W
Geopolitics & trade
Star Economist Roubini on the Global Crises: "World War III Has Already Effectively Begun"
Iranian Drones in Ukraine Project Tehran’s Power Beyond Mideast, Testing U.S., Europe | W
U.S. says North Korea policy unchanged after nuclear remark raises eyebrows | R
UN report: Accounts of rape, torture and executions by Russian troops | C
Industries & companies
Communications Services: GM temporarily suspends advertising on Twitter following Musk takeover | C
Energy: Exxon Hits Record Profits Again as Oil Industry Sees Banner Quarter | W
Beyond markets
Flu Hospitalizations Hit Decade-Plus High for October | W
FDA sees limits to omicron-booster studies from Columbia, Harvard | C
Paul Pelosi, Husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Attacked in San Francisco Home | W
October 28 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China and Semiconductors
Today, our focus is the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment manufacturing industries, both down on their luck these days. The US Commerce Department has barred the door to one of their major markets, China. Yet the CEOs have been curiously acquiescent. … Jackie examines the administration’s possible motivations and the impacts on specific players in the space. … This bad news couldn’t have hit at a worse time: The semiconductor cycle may be heading south. Earnings estimates have been getting slashed and stocks battered.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 24.
Markets
Why Stock Multiples Say the Market Could Continue to Drop | Morningstar
The bear hasn’t broken passive yet | FT
Central banks
ECB Raises Rates by 0.75 Point to Highest in More Than a Decade | W
Japan to keep ultra-low interest rates, defy global tightening trend | R
US
U.S. Mortgage Rates Top 7%, Highest in More Than 20 Years | W
U.S. Economy Grew 2.6% in Third Quarter, GDP Report Shows | W
U.S. economy rebounds in Q3 on boost from trade, but demand stalling | R
Analysis: How Congress might look for Biden post midterms: The good, bad, and the ugly | R
Trump loses court bid to block Congress from getting tax returns | C
Geopolitics & trade
Inside the Secret Prisoner Swap That Splintered the U.S. and China | W
Industries & companies
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon predicts sales growth slowdown for holidays, crushing shares | R
Technology
Amazon to open Kuiper internet satellite factory | C
Beyond markets
Buffalo Bills unveil first design images of their new $1.4 billion stadium | C
October 27 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China and Semiconductors
Today, our focus is the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment manufacturing industries, both down on their luck these days. The US Commerce Department has barred the door to one of their major markets, China. Yet the CEOs have been curiously acquiescent. … Jackie examines the administration’s possible motivations and the impacts on specific players in the space. … This bad news couldn’t have hit at a worse time: The semiconductor cycle may be heading south. Earnings estimates have been getting slashed and stocks battered.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 24.
Markets
Big Tech tumbles as results set off alarm bells | R
Central banks
Powell again faces political pressure as worries mount over economy | C
Energy & climate
Europe, Once Fearing Gas Rationing This Winter, Has a Glut | W
Column: Europe’s gas inventories, the risk from complacency | R
Biden Team Reworks Plan for Russia Oil-Price Cap as Markets Sour | B
Column: China still added to crude oil inventories despite refining, fuel export surge | R
Hydropower Production Falls as Dams From China to US Hit by Sweeping Drought | B
US I
New-Home Sales Fell Nearly 11% in September Amid Rising Interest Rates | W
U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001 | R
Zillow (Z) Lays Off 300 Employees as US Housing Market Slows | B
US II
Ahead of Midterms, How Bad Is the Economy, Really? | W
Biden has ambitious infrastructure goals. Made-in-America rules could slow them. | Vox
Unmitigated gall of Joe Biden claiming that he 'lowered' debt | P
Europe
Germany to legalize cannabis use for recreational purposes | R
Germany, France Divided Over Energy Crisis and China | W
China
Xi Jinping’s Vow of World Dominance by 2049 Sends Chill Through Markets | B
Geopolitics & trade
China Wants to ‘Speed Up’ Its Seizure of Taiwan, US's Blinken Says | B
Opinion | Biden Just Clobbered China’s Chip Industry | N
Ukrainians hold out in east, prepare battle for Kherson | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Exclusive: Tesla faces U.S. criminal probe over self-driving claims | R
Autos: Ford to Take $2.7 Billion Charge on Argo Driverless Startup Stake | W
Media: Disney CEO Bob Chapek Wants to Customize Fan Experiences | W
Tech: Microsoft’s Struggles Enter the Metaverse | W
Corporate finance
U.S. SEC adopts executive compensation clawback rules | R
Accounting Errors to Cost Executives Their Bonuses Under SEC Rule | W
Beyond markets
U.S. Army struggles to find recruits its needs to win fight of future | C
A Possible Covid, Flu and RSV ‘Tripledemic’ Has Doctors Worried. What to Know | W
Brands have fled Kanye. What about his music career? | NN
October 26 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: ECB On Thursday, Inflation On Friday
ECB hawks will be squawking at their meeting on Thursday. Fed hawks will be all over the critical US inflation data that comes out on Friday: The Employment Cost Index may suggest a peaking of wage inflation, and September’s PCED may reflect a declining headline rate (albeit rising core rate, as did September’s CPI, due to services inflation). Today, we examine the significance of each. … Also: We drill down to inflation within services industries, where the worst of it now roosts. … And: Once again, the ECB is on a mission and vowing to “do whatever it takes” to achieve it. This time, the goal is smothering Europe’s inflation fire even if GDP is dampened in the process.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 25.
Markets
The bear market blues: a diagnosis for our times | R
Opinion | Why OPEC Is Cutting Oil Production (and Why There’s Not Much the U.S. Can Do About It) | N
Central banks
Fed's Powell, on eve of next rate hike, urged to protect jobs | R
The Age of Inflation: Easy Money, Hard Choices
Global
Global economy approaching a recession, central banks unchained: Reuters poll | R
US
Leading Economic Index: What it is, why it's flashing a recession warning | C
A 'catastrophe' is coming for economy: Labor Secretary Marty Walsh | C
Home prices cooled at a record pace in August, S&P Case-Shiller says | C
Poor report cards at U.S. companies fan recession fears | R
Surging Rents Push More Americans to Live With Roommates or Parents | W
Health-Insurance Inflation Is Poised to Drop Sharply | W
Steering the conversation toward the economy could actually help Democrats | The Hill
China
Fire Sale! China’s “Warren Buffett” Races To Sell Assets | FO
Europe
New PM Rishi Sunak pledges to lead Britain out of economic crisis | R
Geopolitics & trade
Russian Oligarchs Obscure Their Wealth Through Secretive Isle of Man Network | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: Airlines have the passengers. Now they need the planes | C
Media: Exclusive: Twitter is losing its most active users, internal documents show | R
Corporate finance
Intel Prices Widely Anticipated IPO for Self-Driving Car Unit Mobileye | W
Covid
Men Died From Covid-19 at Much Higher Rate Than Women in Pandemic’s First Year | W
People who had mild Covid had increased risk of blood clots: UK study | C
Beyond markets
Remote work isn’t going away. What’s happening to extra office space? | Vox
October 25 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Your Wish Is Our Command
Our Monday webinars often don’t allow time to answer all your questions. So today’s Morning Briefing is devoted to a few recent ones. … We don’t expect much economic impact when the drawdown of the SPR ends, as we don’t foresee gasoline prices spiking as a result since tapping the SPR didn’t contribute much to the decline in prices. … Also: We counter our skeptics who expect a rampant recession, explaining why we see greater odds (60%) that the gently rolling recession already underway will continue. … And: The strong dollar should peak when monetary policymakers’ hawkishness does, to the relief of US companies with foreign-derived sales and earnings.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 25.
Markets
U.S. yields climb as hawkish Fed concerns outweigh weaker economic data | R
Shares in Chinese Companies Crash After Xi Jinping Stacks Party With Allies | W
Column: Oil investors on defensive as recession forces intensify | R
Charts suggest the U.S. dollar could be peaking, Jim Cramer says | C
Global
Global Economic Growth Is Weighed Down by Inflation, Rising Interest Rates | W
Energy
President Biden forcefully responds to Saudis on oil | The Hill
Biden’s SPR follies will hurt Americans and damage our national security | P
Factbox: How is Germany replacing Russian gas? | R
The Hidden Corner of the Energy Market Where Russian Exports to Europe Are Booming | W
US
The economy may be in better shape than you think...for now | NN
What the state of the U.S. economy means for the midterm elections | The Week
As They Wholly Redefine ‘Inflation,’ Republicans Hand Dems the Tools to Shoot Down Tax Cuts | FO
Inflation is dominant topic on earnings calls. What execs are saying | C
Opinion | The Way Los Angeles Is Trying to Solve Homelessness Is ‘Absolutely Insane’ | N
Mortgages Sold to Fannie, Freddie Should Use More Than FICO Scores, Regulator Says | W
Europe
Rishi Sunak to be Britain's new prime minister as rival Penny Mordaunt drops out | C
Industries & companies
Autos: Tesla Cuts Prices in China as Costs Fall, Competition Heats Up | W
Financials: Banks Are Offering 4.5% CDs—Just Not to Regular Customers | W
Tech: Intel CEO Calls New U.S. Restrictions on Chip Exports to China Inevitable | W
Geopolitics & trade
Russia could plan 'dirty bomb' pretext, Western countries say | R
How Wikipedia is documenting suspicious Russian oligarch deaths. | slate.com
Chinese intelligence officers charged in Huawei prosecution obstruction | C
Beyond markets
U.S. student test results show toll of pandemic lockdowns on learning | R
October 24 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Great Monetary Policy Reversal
Both the bearish and bullish cases for the stock market currently boil down to how the economy responds to the tectonic monetary policy adjustment from unconventionally ultra-easy to conventionally tight, a.k.a. “The Great Monetary Policy Reversal.” … We describe both cases, pointing out that bullish could morph into bearish if services inflation doesn’t abate. We’re in the minority as glass-half-full bulls, counting on a muted rolling recession, with rolling inflation, passing through the economy and out. … Also: Fed officials may be dialing back their hawkishness, which would support the bullish case. We think monetary policy is decidedly restrictive now already. … And: Midterm elections could energize Santa Claus rally. ... Plus: Dr Ed reviews “Eiffel” (+).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 17.
Markets
Dollar see saws on suspected yen intervention, shares rally | R
China’s Yuan Is Weakening Against the Dollar. It’s Easy to Misread Why. | BR
Palladium Is Outshining Gold and Silver. Why Its Price Could Keep Rising. | BR
Central banks
What CEOs Are Saying: The Fed ‘Should Look Out the Front Windshield’ | W
Even super-tight policy is not bringing down prices | E
Higher Interest Rates Can Take a Long Time to Bring Down Inflation | W
Energy & climate
France’s Nuclear Reactors Malfunction as Energy Crisis Bites | W
India’s next green revolution | E
Buy BP and Exxon Stock. They Have a Surprisingly Green Future. | BR
US
Early Earnings Reports Worry Investors Already Battered by Stock Selloff | W
A global house-price slump is coming | E
Companies Take Different Strategies to Navigate High Inflation | W
U.S. cities where starter homes are affordable | C
Europe
Welcome to Britaly | E
China
China reports third-quarter GDP grew by 3.9%, beating expectations | C
China Economy Shows Mixed Recovery as Industrial Activity Climbs | B
Xi Jinping leaves no doubt who is in charge of China | E
Xi Jinping has no interest in succession planning | E
China’s Xi Claims Third Term as Communist Party Leader | W
China names Xi Jinping loyalists for core leadership group | C
Will the Chinese of tomorrow live like the Spaniards of today? | E
Geopolitics & trade
Russia hits Ukraine homes, evacuates Kherson, warns of escalation | C
Two Koreas exchange warning shots near maritime border amid tensions | C
Industries & companies
Autos: Tesla Stock Could Rebound in 3 Months. Here’s What it Would Take. | BR
Financials: Big Banks Can Weather a Recession. Here Are the Top Stocks to Buy. | BR
Media: Netflix experiments with Knives Out sequel, but sticks with limited theater runs | C
Tech: How U.S. Uses Supply Chain Sway to Throttle China’s Chip Development | W
October 22 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On China, Banks & Solar
China’s economy is ailing, but you wouldn’t know it to hear President Xi’s speech before the Chinese Communist Party’s annual National Congress. Jackie puts into perspective the points he made and, more importantly, the ones he omitted. … Also: Big banks’ Q3 earnings reports showcase their resilience so far in the current higher interest-rate environment but leveraged loans could be a problem area in the future if companies have trouble making higher interest payments. ... And: A look at solar energy’s sunny future: With new technologies making panels lighter and more versatile, the sky’s the limit to their potential applications.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 17.
Markets
Dow climbs more than 700 points on Friday as Wall Street clinches its best week since June | C
U.S. yields slide from multi-year highs on hopes of Fed pivot | R
The $1 Million Amazon Conflict: Washington’s Ethics Czars Struggle to Enforce Stock-Trading Laws | W
2-year Treasury yield falls below 4.5% as traders weigh a potential slowdown in Fed hikes | C
Central banks
Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes | W
Why Japan Stands Virtually Alone in Keeping Interest Rates Ultralow | NYT
Energy
France joins other European countries in pulling out of treaty protecting energy investments | R
Europe’s Energy Shock Spurs Rethink of Liberalized Gas Markets | W
Please, someone: hit the brakes on Biden’s gas and energy nonsense | P
US
Inflation is not becoming 'embedded' in economy, Yellen says | R
Burnout at work is getting worse, according to new data | Vox
U.S. Deficit Shrank Last Fiscal Year, but Is Poised to Widen as Economy Slows | W
Student loan forgiveness: President Biden says 22 million people have signed up | C
Europe
Boris Johnson’s Potential Return Shakes Up Race for U.K. Prime Minister | W
China
China's Decade of Change Under Xi Jinping, in Nine Charts | W
Industries & companies
Retail: How Lululemon competes against Athleta, Alo, Gymshark, Nike and Adidas | C
Beyond markets
Cases of BQ.1, BQ.1.1 COVID variants double in U.S. as Europe warns of rise | R
Surge in Pediatric Respiratory Viruses, Including RSV, Strains Children’s Hospitals | W
CDC may use oral polio vaccine for first time in 20 years to halt New York outbreak | C
October 21 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On China, Banks & Solar
China’s economy is ailing, but you wouldn’t know it to hear President Xi’s speech before the Chinese Communist Party’s annual National Congress. Jackie puts into perspective the points he made and, more importantly, the ones he omitted. … Also: Big banks’ Q3 earnings reports showcase their resilience so far in the current higher interest-rate environment but leveraged loans could be a problem area in the future if companies have trouble making higher interest payments. ... And: A look at solar energy’s sunny future: With new technologies making panels lighter and more versatile, the sky’s the limit to their potential applications.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 17.
Markets
Big News for Investors: TINA is Dead | Morningstar
Oil near flat as inflation concerns contend with potential quarantine easing in China | R
Central banks
The Fed, Staring Down Two Big Choices, Charts an Aggressive Path | N
Businesses Expect Economy to Weaken, Fed’s Beige Book Says | W
Fed's Harker sees 'lack of progress' on inflation, expects aggressive rate hikes ahead | C
Fed may have to slow or stop balance sheet trimming in 2023, Barclays says | R
Greg Mankiw's Blog: Why I fear the Fed may be overdoing it
Cramer: Earnings reports show the Fed is making progress on inflation | C
Global
Sanctions on Russia aluminum could hurt global supply chains: Analysts | C
US
U.S. Home Sales Drop for Eighth Straight Month in September | W
Existing home sales fall to a 10-year low in September | C
Jobless Claims Fell Last Week in Still-Tight Labor Market | W
An often-overlooked economic measure is signaling serious trouble ahead | C
College Enrollment Declines Again Though Online Schools, HBCUs See Increases | W
Container imports to Los Angeles and Long Beach are plummeting
China
Why Another Xi Jinping Term Might Be in U.S.’s Interest | W
China’s Military Is Catching Up to the U.S. Is It Ready for Battle? | W
Europe
Truss Defied the Markets, and They Ruthlessly Sealed Her Fate | N
Who will replace Truss as UK prime minister? Sunak? Mordaunt? Johnson? | R
U.K. Government Is High-Profile Casualty in World of Higher Borrowing Costs | W
Japan
Japan's inflation hits 8-year high in test of BOJ's dovish policy | R
Geopolitics & trade
Iran Is Training Russian Drone Pilots in Crimea to Aid Moscow’s War Effort, U.S. Says | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: At American Airlines, First Class Out, Business Class In for International Trips | W
Airlines: Why cheap airfare is so hard to find this year | C
Airlines: Travel Demand Remains Strong, Airlines Say | W
Autos: Elon Musk Calls Tesla ‘Recession-Resilient’ as Wall Street Eyes Demand | W
Autos: GM's 2024 GMC Sierra EV offers electric truck alternative to Hummer | C
Railroads: Union Pacific Profit Rises 13% as Railroads Benefit From Higher Freight Rates | W
Retail: Second Amazon Style apparel store officially opens | Chain Store Age
Tech: Apple Is an Ad Company Now | WIRED
Tech: Chip Maker TSMC Weighs Expansion in Japan to Reduce Geopolitical Risk | W
Tech: Facebook shuttle bus drivers face layoffs as Meta slashes costs | C
Beyond markets
What Have Workers Done with the Time Freed up by Commuting Less? | NY Fed
Ask an AI Art Generator for Any Image. The Results Are Amazing—and Terrifying. | W
October 20 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On China, Banks & Solar
China’s economy is ailing, but you wouldn’t know it to hear President Xi’s speech before the Chinese Communist Party’s annual National Congress. Jackie puts into perspective the points he made and, more importantly, the ones he omitted. … Also: Big banks’ Q3 earnings reports showcase their resilience so far in the current higher interest-rate environment but leveraged loans could be a problem area in the future if companies have trouble making higher interest payments. ... And: A look at solar energy’s sunny future: With new technologies making panels lighter and more versatile, the sky’s the limit to their potential applications.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 17.
Markets
Japanese yen hits 150 against the U.S. dollar | C
Central banks
BOJ conducts emergency bond buying to underpin debt market, but yields keep rising | R
Japan ramps up intervention threats after yen slides past key 150 level | R
Energy
Factbox: Europe's alternatives if Russia shuts off gas supply | R
America's new nuclear power industry has a Russian problem | R
Biden says oil companies should prioritize lowering prices over stock buybacks | C
US
GOP holds big leads on key economic issues ahead of the November elections, CNBC survey shows | C
China
China’s Surveillance State Pushes Deeper Into Citizens’ Lives | W
Europe
UK PM Liz Truss locked in Downing Street talks as political crisis escalates | C
Geopolitics & trade
Ukrainians Urged to Ration Electricity as Russian Missiles Target Energy Infrastructure | W
U.S., Europe Struggle to Keep Iran’s Drones From Russian Military | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Biden administration awards $2.8 billion in grants for electric vehicle battery manufacturing | C
Autos: Elon Musk says Tesla is 'pedal to the metal' even in recession | C
Pharma: Drugmakers Look to Limit Medicare’s New Power to Negotiate Lower Drug Prices | W
Beyond markets
Trump's company faces criminal tax trial as his legal woes mount | R
Toxic Workplaces Are Bad for Mental and Physical Health, Surgeon General Says | W
October 19 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Mid-Terms, Earnings & Commodities
Octobers tend to turn out decent returns during mid-term election years. Twelve bear markets have met their demise during October, often setting the stage for Santa Claus rallies. … Q3 earnings season has stumbled out of the gate, but stocks have rallied anyway. We look at which sectors and industries benefited the most and where estimate-cutting industry analysts are cutting the most. … Also: Melissa discusses how recent news from China and Europe has been affecting commodities prices.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 17.
Markets
Stocks Notch Second Day of Gains | W
Biden to Sell More Oil From Strategic Reserve to Keep Gas Prices in Check | W
Central banks
Fed's Bostic: U.S. needs to work through labor market "shuffle and churn" | R
ECB set to warn of risks in its non-binding opinion on Spanish tax proposal, sources say | R
Energy
EU Seeks Power to Set Emergency Cap on Gas Prices | W
French Protests Highlight Pressure on European Leaders From Energy Crisis | W
Biden to lay out plan to complete emergency oil sales, support U.S. production | R
Fashion Industry Gets Torn by Europe’s Soaring Energy Bills | W
US
Inflation Causes IRS to Raise Tax Brackets, Standard Deduction by 7% | W
Currency hit to N. American companies seen 'bad' after rough Q2 -report | R
Home Buyers Flock to Florida Cities Devastated by Hurricane Ian | W
China
Xi Jinping’s Ideological Ambition Challenges China’s Economic Prospects | W
Geopolitics & trade
Russian commander admits situation is 'tense' for his forces in Ukraine | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Rolls-Royce has over 300 orders for its $413,000 Spectre electric vehicle | C
Financials: Goldman Shuffle Aims to Reduce Reliance on M&A | W
Materials: EXCLUSIVE Glencore delivers Russian-origin aluminum into LME system -sources | R
Media: Netflix Gains 2.4 Million New Subscribers, Reversing Trend | W
October 18 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Going Fishing
Our bond market analysis suggests that the 10-year Treasury bond yield might peak at 4.00%-4.25%, probably in November after the Fed raises the federal funds rate by 75bps and possibly in anticipation of one final 75bps hike in December that puts the terminal federal funds rate at 4.50%-4.75%. … Our stock market outlook involves the S&P 500 remaining in a volatile trading range between 3666 and 4305 for the rest of this year. ... Also: Why hasn’t the labor-force participation rate snapped back to its pre-pandemic levels now that the pandemic has abated? Melissa explores various reasons. … And: She examines trends perpetuating today’s extreme labor shortages.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 17.
Markets
U.S. Stocks Jump, With Dow Up About 550 Points | W
Energy
U.S. Permian oil production forecast to hit record in November -EIA | R
White House Planning Oil Reserve Release Announcement This Week | B
Dozens of LNG-laden ships queue off Europe's coasts unable to unload | R
New England Risks Winter Blackouts as Gas Supplies Tighten | W
Exclusive: Exxon exits Russia empty-handed with oil project 'unilaterally terminated' | R
US
US Recession Forecast Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden Before Midterms | B
Democrats Spent $2 Trillion to Save the Economy. They Don’t Want to Talk About It. | N
Mark Mobius Warns US Interest Rates Will Hit 9% If Inflation Persists | B
JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Trims Risk as He Turns More Wary on Economy | B
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says the U.S. consumer is healthy | C
Europe
UK Prime Minister Truss says 'sorry' for mistakes, but 'I'm sticking around' | R
Emerging
China Abruptly Delays GDP Release During Communist Party Conference | W
China’s Xi Jinping Likely to Pack Party Leadership With Allies in Show of Strength | W
Warren Buffet bails as Chinese economy flounders, tensions rise | P
Asia could stand out from economic doom and gloom next year: economists | C
Geopolitics & trade
US's Blinken Says China Wants to Seize Taiwan on ‘Much Faster Timeline’ | B
U.S. condemns 'war crimes' after Russia drone attack hits Kyiv apartment block | R
Marine Le Pen Wants France to Chart Its Own Course Between U.S. and Russia | W
The string of mysterious deaths among businessmen in Putin’s Russia, explained | Vox
Industries & companies
Autos: Are electric vehicles really better? | The Week
Autos: GM's Cadillac Celestiq EV costs $300,000 and is customizable | C
Media: Netflix Seeks Ways to Get Subscribers to Return After Visits Decline | W
Tech: We need to keep Big Tech strong — so it can keep America strong | P
Wireless: A New Space Race Targets the Smartphone | W
Wireless: Why smartphones are getting cheaper in the CPI | C
Technology
Meet the Army of Robots Coming to Fill In for Scarce Workers | W
Corporate finance
Regulators should finally require some transparency of large private firms | The Hill
Kanye West to Buy Parler, a Libertarian Social-Media Platform, Company Says | W
Beyond markets
The NFL is a ticking time bomb. Congress could set it off. | MSNBC
Despite What the Experts Told You, This Was Never ‘Inflation’ | FO
Many Americans Ignore Covid Boosters as Winter, Variants Loom | W
October 17 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Mostly All About Inflation
More persistently pernicious inflation than expected is at the root of the financial market’s bearish sentiment. Revenues, profit margins, and earnings have been holding up relatively well; the market’s big problem is a significant downward rerating of the P/E multiples that investors are willing to pay in this inflationary economic environment. ... We continue to think the economy is undergoing a rolling recession afflicting different industries at different times. We also think that inflation might be following a similar rolling script. Notably, goods inflation pressures have abated as services inflation pressures have picked up.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 10.
Markets
Whiplash in Stock Market Shows Investors Are Still on Edge | W
The Stock Market Rebound Fizzled. Why a Real Bottom Could Be Forming Soon. | BR
Markets are reeling from higher rates. The world economy is next | E
Stocks Look Alluring for the Longer Term, say U.S. money managers | BR
If Ukraine Wins and Putin Loses, What Happens to Markets? | BR
Junk-Rated Companies Search for the Right Time to Tap Investors | W
Commodities
OPEC+ members line up to endorse output cut after U.S. coercion claim | R
OPEC production cuts: Why Saudi Arabia’s move might not help Russia all that much | Vox
Gazprom CEO says gas price cap would lead to supply halt | R
Column: Record European copper premiums as buyers shut out Russia | R
Global
High Inflation Darkens Global Economic Outlook | W
Households across the rich world have never been so gloomy | E
Central banks
The Fed will continue to raise interest rates: How high could they go? | The Hill
US
How Americans feel about the economy | E
When Mortgage Rates Might Stop Rising, and More Takeaways From a Top Housing Market Economist | BR
Some Companies Are Leaving California as It Pushes Ahead on Regulations | BR
White House pushes ahead research to cool Earth by reflecting sunlight | C
Europe
Thousands take to the streets of Paris to protest soaring prices | R
China
China’s Xi Is Getting a Third Term. Investors Are Hoping Something Gives. | BR
Xi Jinping’s Quest for Control Over China Targets Even Old Friends | W
China's Xi talks up security, reiterates COVID stance as congress opens | R
China's Xi downplays need for rapid growth, praises Covid achievements | C
At China’s Communist Party congress, Xi Jinping sails on undaunted | E
An obsession with control is making China weaker but more dangerous | E
China is no longer just any emerging market | C
Geopolitics & trade
Failure to Control Ukraine’s Skies Betrays Key Flaw in Russia’s War Strategy | W
Xi warns against Taiwan interference at China's CPC national congress | C
Industries & companies
Autos: For GM auto union workers, there's still a lot to learn about EVs | C
Financials: The Stocks Are Down, but Regional Banks Are Stress-Tested With 4% Dividends | BR
Materials: 8 Mining Stocks: Why Their Long-Term Outlook Is Bright | BR
Retail: Kohl's Faces a New Activist Push to Change Its Board | BR
Tech: Tech Companies Embrace Silicon Valley, Despite Rising Regulation | BR
Tech: Why the Chip-Ban Panic Over Taiwan Semiconductor May Be Overblown | BR
Tech: Meta Horizon Worlds metaverse losing users, falling short of goals: Report | C
Technology
Meet the Army of Robots Coming to Fill In for Scarce Workers | W
Climate
Shasta Lake Helped Water California; Now Its Dryness Is a Threat to the State | W
Beyond markets
Elites realize they need blue-collar workers they derided | P
It is becoming harder to take off a sick day | E
Elon Musk tweets on Starlink: 'We’ll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free' | C
October 15 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Semis, Valuation & Energy
The cyclical S&P 500 Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment industry indexes have had a terrible week and year. … Also: The stock market’s poor recent performance has been mostly attributable to valuation resets at lower levels. Jackie finds a mixed valuation picture among sectors and industries. … And: Developments that exert upward pressure on oil prices have been countered by factors with the opposite effect; three in particular have been sapping global demand for oil lately.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 10.
Markets
Stocks Drop After Wild Surge on Wall Street | W
Dow closes 400 points lower to end a wild week of trading | C
Groping for a Bottom - The Big Picture (ritholtz.com)
Jamie Dimon says expect 'other surprises’ from choppy markets after U.K. pensions nearly imploded | C
OPEC+ Cuts Could Lead To Supply Deficit In Oil Markets | OilPrice.com
Global
IMF Urges Faster Debt Relief for Nations Fighting High Inflation, Hunger | W
Central banks
Federal Reserve probing Bostic's trading after blackout period transactions | C
Exclusive-Fed's Bullard favors 'frontloading' rate hikes now, with wait-and-see stance in 2023
US
Americans Spend Less on Gas, More on Food as Inflation Varies Across Items | W
Inflation and the Midterm Elections | W
Deere invests $29.8M to shift production from China to Louisiana (NYSE:DE) | Seeking Alpha
Europe
U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss Fires Treasury Chief, U-Turns on Taxes | W
China
Xi Jinping’s Endgame: A China Prepared for Conflict With the U.S. | W
A Slew of China Builders Gets Ratings Dropped as Crisis Worsens | B
Chinese Internet Users Lose Access to WeChat App After Beijing Protest | W
Geopolitics & trade
Exclusive: EU ministers to discuss Iran drones to Russia, future sanctions, sources say | R
Sweden shuns formal joint investigation of Nord Stream leak, citing national security | R
Marine Le Pen Wants France to Chart Its Own Course Between U.S. and Russia | W
U.S. Has Made ‘Dramatic Change’ in Technology Used for Nuclear Code System | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Lithium for Tesla, EVs, batteries: Touring Silver Peak, Nevada | C
Pharma: Review: Abbott Freestyle Libre 3 CGM for diabetics | C
Retail: Retail Spending Was Flat in September Amid High Inflation | W
Corporate finance
Kroger and Albertsons in Deal Talks to Create Supermarket Powerhouse | W
Fed Approves U.S. Bancorp Acquisition of MUFG Union Bank | W
Beyond markets
Omicron BA.5 is declining as emerging variants gain ground: CDC data | C
October 14 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Semis, Valuation & Energy
The cyclical S&P 500 Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment industry indexes have had a terrible week and year. … Also: The stock market’s poor recent performance has been mostly attributable to valuation resets at lower levels. Jackie finds a mixed valuation picture among sectors and industries. … And: Developments that exert upward pressure on oil prices have been countered by factors with the opposite effect; three in particular have been sapping global demand for oil lately.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 10.
Markets
Dow Closes More Than 800 Points Higher in Volatile Day | W
Bond Yields End Higher After Wild Session, Lifted By Inflation Data | W
As Bond Investors’ Bets Blow Up, They Might Usher In Era of Higher Rates | W
Central banks
Inflation Report Seals Case for 0.75-Point Fed Rate Rise in November | W
A gummy theory for the Fed's high-stakes interest rate gamble | NN
Energy
Threat Against Gas Plant in Norway Rattles Tense European Markets | W
Column: Europe's gas prices retreat as storage almost full | R
EU Readies New Proposals to Drive Down Energy Costs | W
A shift in global energy demand could be coming this winter | C
Biden signals new effort to lower gasoline prices next week | R
US
Inflation Sits at 8.2% as Core Prices Hit Four-Decade High | W
Inflation’s Storm From the Shelter | W
Here's the inflation breakdown for September 2022 — in one chart | C
Mortgage Rates Hit 6.92%, a 20-Year High | W
Delaying big purchases, reducing debt: How to prepare for a recession | C
Opinion: Employers should stop caring so much about college degrees | NN
China
Morning Bid: Xi bangs the drums | R
What Do Chinese People Think of Xi Jinping? It’s Very Hard to Tell | W
Posh ice cream, craft beer in vogue as Chinese downsize their love of luxury | R
Geopolitics & trade
Analysis: China faces its "Sputnik" moment as US export curbs deal a blow to its chip ambitions | R
Seoul scrambles fighters as North Korean planes fly close to border | R
Treasury's Yellen says Russia's war has weakened its economy | C
Exclusive: Russia is prepared to quit Black Sea grains deal, writes to UN with demands | R
Industries & companies
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon executives overseeing Alexa, hardware group depart the company | C
Financials: BlackRock Profit Falls 16% | W
Media: Netflix’s Ad-Supported Plan Will Launch in November at $6.99 a Month | W
Media: Netflix to get Nielsen ratings as streaming giant rolls out ad-supported plan | C
Tech: Inside Mark Zuckerberg’s Metaverse Struggles | N
Climate
White House pushes ahead research to cool Earth by reflecting sunlight | C
Beyond markets
U.S. extends Covid public health emergency | C
Ben Bernanke Led the Fed During the Global Financial Crisis | N
October 13 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Semis, Valuation & Energy
The cyclical S&P 500 Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment industry indexes have had a terrible week and year. … Also: The stock market’s poor recent performance has been mostly attributable to valuation resets at lower levels. Jackie finds a mixed valuation picture among sectors and industries. … And: Developments that exert upward pressure on oil prices have been countered by factors with the opposite effect; three in particular have been sapping global demand for oil lately.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 10.
Markets
S&P 500 closes lower, notching six days of losses ahead of key inflation report | C
Stocks Slip After Fed Minutes and Inflation Data | W
Stocks Move in Lockstep as Fed’s Rate Increases Show No Mercy | W
Cash is king again as money managers are in no rush to embrace risk with Fed raising rates | C
Treasury yields fall slightly as traders await Thursday's CPI report | C
Column: OPEC+ risks overtightening the oil market | R
Central banks
Federal Reserve Worry About Faster Inflation at Last Meeting | N
Fed officials worried more about doing too little on inflation than too much | R
Fed Minutes Show Concerns of More Persistent High Inflation | W
How the Fed Might Slow Down | W
ECB closing in on rule change to shave banking profits, sources say | R
Global
IMF Urges Governments Restrain Spending to Fight Inflation | W
Treasury's Yellen says global economy faces headwinds, warns of geopolitical 'coercion' | R
US
Consumer inflation seen to have run hot in September, boosted by rent | C
Labor Hoarding Could be Good News for the Economy | N
ACT Test Scores Drop to Lowest Levels in More Than 30 Years | W
China
A Dissident Escapes Xi Jinping’s China and a Life ‘Made Up of Lies’ | W
Europe
Bank of England Ultimatum Puts New Pressure on U.K. Markets | W
U.K. Pension Funds Rush to Raise Cash as Central-Bank Deadline Looms | W
Geopolitics & trade
How Ukrainian Strategy Is Running Circles Around Russia’s Lumbering Military | W
U.N. denounces Russian 'annexation' while West backs Ukraine with more air defenses | R
U.S. may block Russian aluminum imports -source | R
Putin moots gas hub in Turkey with Nord Stream supplies | R
Special Report: U.S. firm supplied networking tech to maker of Russian missiles | R
U.S. Sees ‘Decisive Decade’ Ahead in Competition With China, Russia | W
Industries & companies
Autos: GM's Chevrolet Trax crossover comes with new tech, design, lower price | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon's growing private label business is challenge for small brands | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon Second Prime Day: Shoppers Pick Household Goods Over Pricey TVs, Laptops | B
Tech: The Quest Pro’s $1,500 ticket to Mark Zuckerberg’s metaverse | Vox
Beyond markets
Deadly Ebola Outbreak Spreads to Uganda’s Capital | W
October 12 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Most Widely Anticipated Recession In History
Some areas of US economy are thriving while others flounder, and several looming challenges signal tough times ahead. JPMorgan Chase’s CEO yesterday said a recession is coming. Our assessment is that a rolling recession is already here and should linger well into next year. … We’re raising our Q3 forecast for real GDP and lowering our Q4 one. … Notably, small business owners remain depressed, with inflation topping their worry list even as they’re forced to exacerbate it. … Also: Industry analysts have been continuing to lower their earnings sights; we may do the same for S&P 500 earnings this year and next depending on the strength of Q3 earnings results.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 10.
Markets
Further 20% fall in U.S. stocks ‘certainly possible’: IMF director | C
Federal Officials Trade Stock in Companies Their Agencies Oversee | W
Global
IMF Warns Rate Increases Could Spur A Global Recession | N
IMF Warns of Growing Global Risks, Says U.K. Turmoil Largely Contained | W
US I
Biden Says Very Slight Recession Is Possible, but He Doesn’t Anticipate One | W
U.S. mortgage interest rates rise to highest level since 2006 | R
Demand for riskier home loans is high as interest rates soar | C
Supplier-Price Report to Offer Clues on September Inflation Trend | W
US II
Federal Deficit Fell by $1.4 Trillion in Fiscal Year 2022, CBO Estimates | W
The never-ending state of rotten and excessive government | WT
Legal challenges could hamper U.S. rule to limit independent contracting | R
Whither Long-Term Inflation? | Morningstar
China
American Universities Continue to Falter in World Rankings as China Rises | W
China's 'liberal' Wang Yang seen as possible premier as reshuffle looms | R
Japan
Japan Bond Market Sets Record for Nothing Happening | W
Geopolitics & trade
NATO, partners to discuss bolstering Ukraine air defence | R
Putin blames Europe for energy crisis as EU works on price cap | R
U.S. Suppliers Halt Operations at Top Chinese Memory Chip Maker | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: United adds new trans-Atlantic flights for summer 2023 in bet on travel recovery | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon cost cuts under Andy Jassy reflect new reality after 25 years | C
Tech: The CHIPS Act alone won’t secure US semiconductor supply chains | The Hill
Tech: Meta Quest Pro: A $1,500 Virtual-Reality Headset for Working in the Metaverse | W
Corporate finance
Philips to Take $1.3 Billion Write-Down on Sleep-Apnea Business | W
Vista Equity Nears Roughly $4.5 Billion Deal for Cybersecurity Provider | W
Beyond markets
Covid news: U.S. is tracking omicron subvariants but booster should protect | C
October 11 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: More Inflation (News) Is Coming
The financial markets have been laser focused on inflation news this year, and are bracing for the next couple of days’ releases. Thursday’s CPI report for September is bound to move the markets, and tomorrow should bring a sneak peek of what it holds in store via the PPI release, specifically its personal consumption expenditures index. … Today, we examine the inflation information available to date in preparation for the big releases. … Notably, global supply-chain pressures eased in September, and the prices-paid indexes in both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMIs are way down from their peaks.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 10.
Markets
Nasdaq registers lowest close since July 2020; chips stocks fall | R
German bond yields jump after Scholz reported to support joint EU debt | R
Central banks
Two Fed Officials Make Case for Caution With Future Interest Rate Raises | W
Fed's Evans says fighting inflation is the top priority even if that means job losses | C
Ark's Cathie Wood issues open letter to the Fed, saying it is risking an economic 'bust' | C
Why Is the Fed Always Late to the Party? | The Big Picture
Bank of England Offers More Support for Pension Funds Amid Crisis | W
Global
World’s Emergency-Lending Capacity Is Getting Stretched as Crises Deepen | W
US
Price Increases Come Easily for Big Businesses, but Inflation Still Squeezes Profits | W
JPMorgan CEO Dimon warns of recession in 6 to 9 months - CNBC | R
Paul Tudor Jones believes we are in or near a recession and history shows stocks have more to fall | C
Fix the housing market by widening the pathway to work | Washington Examiner
Europe
Column: Pension fund jam may jolt private credit boom | R
Geopolitics & trade
Sweden won't share Nord Stream investigation findings with Russia - PM | R
Russia Unleashes Its Biggest Barrage of Strikes on Ukraine Since Invasion | W
Industries & companies
Autos: GM, Ford shares tumble after UBS downgrades cite weakening demand | C
Retail: Retailers Kick Off Black Friday in October Again, This Time With Too Much Stuff | W
Tech: PC shipments fall for HP, Lenovo and Dell but Apple shipments rise in Q3 | C
Corporate finance
Bio-Rad Laboratories in Talks to Combine With Qiagen | W
Climate
Earthquake rattles Taiwan, but epicentre out at sea | R
Beyond markets
Why China was quiet quitting well before the rest of the world caught on | C
October 10 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Volcker 2.0 vs Bernanke 2.0?
Our current Fed chief has recently turned to Paul Volcker’s playbook to fight inflation. The risk is that he will trigger the kind of financial instability that occurred during Ben Bernanke’s term as Fed chair. Powell and his colleagues seem hellbent on further rate hikes with no pause to assess the impacts of recent ones. One Fed governor recognizes the risks of doing so but agrees with the Fed’s risky course. Another one is quite dismissive of financial stability concerns. But we see red flags in the weakness of the housing market, the negative wealth effect, and the strength of the dollar. … Also: The labor market remains robust, but wage inflation may be peaking. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Operation Mincemeat” (+ +).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 3.
Markets
Growth Funds Gave Hopes to Investors in the Third Quarter. They Disappointed Instead. | BR
Since 1311 bond yields have fallen with metronomic regularity | E
Currencies
The U.S. Dollar Is Superstrong. 8 Ways to Invest Abroad. | BR
Strong Dollar Pressures U.S. Manufacturing Rebound | W
Global
A new macroeconomic era is emerging. What will it look like? | E
Elderly populations mean more government spending | E
Steel and Iron-Ore Prices Are Weakening as Global Economy Slows | BR
Central banks
Policymakers are likely to jettison their 2% inflation targets | E
Fed’s Inflation Fight Has Some Economists Fearing an Unnecessarily Deep Downturn | W
Payrolls Are Strong, Oil Is Rising, and the Fed Seems Intent on Raising Rates. | BR
US
The inflation problem will get better before it gets worse | E
Allianz Chief Economic Adviser El-Erian believes core inflation 'is still going up' | C
The Biden administration is quietly completing bits of Donald Trump’s wall | E
Europe
Europe Can Weather a Recession, Says Franklin Templeton’s Katrina Dudley | BR
Can Italy’s Giorgia Meloni afford the things she wants? | E
There are not enough Germans to do the jobs Germany needs | E
China
China’s Xi Is Getting a Third Term. Investors Are Hoping Something Gives. | BR
Xi’s Third Term Will Double Down on a Mission of Revitalizing Chinese Socialism | BR
Japan
Japan reopens to tourists with shuttered souvenir shops, hotel staff shortage | R
Energy
Why fracking cannot solve Europe’s energy crisis | E
Paris Cuts the Lights to Save Energy. Will It Help? | W
Geopolitics & trade
Russia Scrambles to Reconnect Supply Lines to Crimea After Bridge Explosion | W
Putin accuses Ukraine of Crimea bridge blast, calls it terrorism | R
North Korea launches missile toward sea after U.S.-South Korea drills | C
Industries & companies
Autos: Not Ready to Go Full EV? Some Car Companies Bet Bigger on Hybrids | W
Autos: Tesla sells record China-made vehicles in September following Shanghai factory upgrade | C
Media: Showtime chief's exit signals Paramount moving toward streaming merger | C
Retail: Retailers trot out 12-foot skeletons to boost Halloween sales | C
Corporate finance
Elon Musk’s Twitter Deal Is Very Pricey. Here’s the Math. | BR
Technology
Generative AI: Silicon Valley's next trillion-dollar companies? | C
Beyond markets
Space mining business still highly speculative | C
October 08 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Earnings, JOLTS & Housing
While S&P 500 forward revenues has hit successive record highs lately, the forward profit margin and forward earnings both peaked in June. Since then, forward earnings has been flat. We see more of the same for earnings given our expectation that economic growth will be close to zero in our growth recession scenario. … Also: One in three workers quit their jobs over the past year! But their ex-employers quickly rehired. We examine the reasons for the labor market’s mind-boggling pace of job churn. … And: Home affordability challenges have sent the recently hot housing market into a deep freeze. Melissa traces the causes and the effects on homebuilders.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 3.
Markets
Dow drops 600 points, Nasdaq closes 3% lower as rates pop after September jobs report | C
Treasury Yields Rise After Jobs Data | W
Energy
OPEC+ oil output cut shows widening rift between Biden and Saudi royals | R
EXCLUSIVE U.S. Navy jet flew across Baltic hours after Nord Stream burst | R
Central banks
Fed to deliver another big rate hike as job market fails to cool | R
Fed on Track for Another Large Interest-Rate Hike After Jobs Report | W
Fed Officials Say Stubborn Inflation Justifies Continued Rate Increases | W
September job gains affirm that the Fed has a long way to go in inflation fight | C
Global Fallout From Rate Moves Won’t Stop the Fed | N
US
U.S. Economy Added 263,000 Jobs in September, Labor Market Shows Signs of Cooling | W
Unemployment rate falls to 3.5% in September, payrolls rise by 263,000 as job market stays strong | C
Here's where the jobs are for September 2022 - in one chart | C
Europe
German Production Falls as Higher Energy Prices Hit Manufacturing | W
China
In China, a European executive becomes an increasingly rare critical voice | R
Geopolitics & trade
Biden Warns of Growing Nuclear Risk as Ukraine Slams Russia for Drone Use | W
U.S. buys radiation sickness drug as part of long-standing program | R
U.S. aims to hobble China's chip industry with sweeping new export rules | R
U.S. Restricts Semiconductor Exports in Bid to Slow China’s Military Advance | W
Industries & companies
Autos: New cars are finally back in stock, but they come at a steep price | C
Autos: Tesla stock had its worst week since March 2020 amid wild week for Musk | C
Autos: Rivian Recalling Nearly All of Its Vehicles | W
Retail: Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale 2022: Here are the best deals | C
Media: You Hated Your Cable Package. Your Streaming Services Are Bringing It Back. | W
Pharma: FDA clears whooping cough vaccine for use during pregnancy to protect newborns | C
Beyond markets
Covid vaccines prevented at least 330,000 deaths among U.S. seniors in 2021 | C
New York City Declares Emergency Over Migrant Influx | W
October 07 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary:
On Earnings, JOLTS & Housing
While S&P 500 forward revenues has hit successive record highs lately, the forward profit margin and forward earnings both peaked in June. Since then, forward earnings has been flat. We see more of the same for earnings given our expectation that economic growth will be close to zero in our growth recession scenario. … Also: One in three workers quit their jobs over the past year! But their ex-employers quickly rehired. We examine the reasons for the labor market’s mind-boggling pace of job churn. … And: Home affordability challenges have sent the recently hot housing market into a deep freeze. Melissa traces the causes and the effects on homebuilders.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 3.
Markets
Wall Street closes lower as the Fed pounds rate hike drum | R
Stocks close lower as investors await September jobs report, Dow drops nearly 350 points | C
Why Wall Street shouldn't sweat the midterms | CNN
U.K. Bond Markets Come Under Pressure Again | W
Central banks
Fed Official Says Inflation Is ‘Stubbornly Persistent,’ Justifying Rapid Rate Rises | W
The Fed Wants to Quash Inflation. But Can It Do It More Gently? | N
The Fed Has to Stay the Course Against Inflation | W
Energy
Britain could face three-hour power cuts this winter, National Grid warns | R
Column: Third European smelter closure compounds zinc conundrum | R
Biden Weighs Options After OPEC+ Moves to Cut Oil Output | W
Shell Braces for Profit Hit From Volatile Natural-Gas Prices, Rising Costs | W
Column: Outsized OPEC+ output cut raises global risks | R
Global
IMF to Lower Global 2023 Growth Forecast Amid Shocks to Economy | W
US
Column: Earnings squeeze heralds winter freeze on Wall Street | R
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Climbing Again, Pressuring Consumers | W
Conagra Says Food Inflation Shows Signs of Moderating | W
‘Hiring Has Never Been Harder!’ | W
Biden pardons thousands of people convicted of marijuana possession, orders review of federal pot law | C
Hunter Biden case: Feds believe evidence supports tax and gun charges | C
Industries & companies
Consumer Discretionary: How this popular Jeff Bezos quote drives Amazon's climate goals | C
Media: How YouTube Created the Attention Economy | The New Yorker
Corporate finance
Twitter, Elon Musk Talks Continue, Focus on Financing, Litigation | W
Beyond markets
Ebola: U.S. will screen people arriving at airports from Uganda | C
COVID wave looms in Europe as booster campaign makes slow start | R
October 06 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Earnings, JOLTS & Housing
While S&P 500 forward revenues has hit successive record highs lately, the forward profit margin and forward earnings both peaked in June. Since then, forward earnings has been flat. We see more of the same for earnings given our expectation that economic growth will be close to zero in our growth recession scenario. … Also: One in three workers quit their jobs over the past year! But their ex-employers quickly rehired. We examine the reasons for the labor market’s mind-boggling pace of job churn. … And: Home affordability challenges have sent the recently hot housing market into a deep freeze. Melissa traces the causes and the effects on homebuilders.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 3.
Markets
Stocks Close Lower After Two-Day Rally | W
Traders Pile Into Boom-or-Bust Options to Play Stock Market Volatility | W
Currencies & commodities
A Strong Dollar Is Wreaking Havoc on Emerging Markets. A Debt Crisis Could Be Next. | N
What a Strong U.S. Dollar Means for Investors | Morningstar
OPEC+ agrees deep oil production cuts, Biden calls it shortsighted | R
Central banks
Fed’s Rate Increases Defy All the Rules | W
Fed's Bostic says inflation fight "still in early days" | R
Geopolitics & trade
Ukraine recovers more territory in region Russia claims to have annexed | R
U.S. Looks to Ease Venezuela Sanctions, Enabling Chevron to Pump Oil | W
North Korea fires a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan | C
Industries & companies
Autos: Ford ups starting price of electric F-150 Lightning pickup to $51,974 | C
Retail: How Macy’s Has Avoided—So Far—the Inventory Pileup Plaguing Other Apparel Chains | W
Corporate finance
Elon Musk and Twitter Discussed Price Cut to $44 Billion Takeover in Recent Weeks | W
Beyond markets
Colleges struggle with enrollment declines, underfunding post-Covid | C
October 05 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Central Bankers, Stocks & Batteries
Policymakers in both China and the UK recently have made policy 180s, abandoning their former plans. Now US financial markets seem to think economic conditions will compel the Fed to do the same, ending this round of tightening sooner rather than later. … Did the stock market’s impressive comeback rally of the past two days benefit the same S&P 500 sectors and industries as last summer’s two-month rally did? Jackie takes a look, isolating the most dramatic winners and losers of both. … And: GM and other companies are charging ahead on the development of solid-state batteries for electric vehicles. In our ongoing coverage of disruptive technologies, we highlight some of their plans.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 3.
Markets
Sterling softens after UK PM Truss speech | R
Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis True? | US News
Global
Opinion | The First Global Deflation Has Begun, and It’s Unclear Just How Painful It Will Be| N
WTO Sees Sharp Slowdown in Global Trade, Pointing to Possible Recession, Lower Inflation | W
Energy
Column: Mission accomplished? Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule | R
High prices, war in Ukraine, a cold winter ahead — and now OPEC+ piles on | The Hill
German minister criticizes U.S. over 'astronomical' natural gas prices | C
Central banks
Fed Official Says Inflation Fight Will Take Time, Despite Signs of Progress | W
Fed's delayed inflation fight sparks fears of a policy overcorrection | R
When Interest Rates Rise Fast, Markets Tend to Break: How to Spot the Cracks | W
US
U.S. Job Openings Fell in August, Layoffs Up Slightly | W
ADP jobs report September 2022: | C
Mortgage applications fall 14% as higher rates, Hurricane Ian crush demand | C
What Biden must do right now to fix our broken economy | FO
Biden’s Student-Loan Forgiveness Test: Processing Millions of Applications | W
Europe
Inflation, Consumer Pessimism Push U.K. Firms to Close Their Doors | W
Column: UK quake could spur pension fund asset 'hibernation' | R
Geopolitics & trade
South Korea, U.S. fire missiles into the sea to protest 'reckless' North Korea test | R
Industries & companies
Autos: U.S. Electric-Vehicle Tax Breaks Rile Asian, European Allies | W
Logistics: LNG shipping rates ‘shooting for the stars’ at $500,000 per day | freightwaves.com
Tech: Apple Told to Ditch Unique iPhone Charger in EU | W
Corporate finance
Elon Musk wants to buy Twitter for $44 billion again. What changed? | Vox
Beyond markets
These executives are asking their staff to work less for the same money. Will it pay off? | NN
October 04 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Valuation, Liquidity & Inflation
The S&P 500’s forward P/E has sunk practically to its historical average of 15.0. What happens to it next depends much on what happens to the economy. If our growth recession scenario continues to play out (to which we subjectively assign 60% odds), the historical average valuation likely will hold and the S&P 500 drift sideways until climbing again in 2023; if a hard-landing recession scenario unfolds (40% odds), the P/E may sink into the single digits. … On the bright side, the financial markets have plenty of liquidity to buoy valuations. … Also: We look at what inflation has been doing by two different measures, the CPI and PCED, and examine how they differ.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 3.
Markets
Stocks surge to kick off October and a new quarter as bond yields tumble, Dow closes up 760 points | C
U.S. Stocks Rally to Start New Quarter | W
For Corporate America, Strong U.S. Dollar Cuts Both Ways | W
Column: Iron ore navigates choppy seas amid some positive China signs | R
Column: Crop Watch: Mass bean harvest fails to bring impressive yields | R
Energy
China Is Rerouting U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas to Europe at a Big Profit | W
US
U.S. manufacturing nearly brakes; price pressures abating | R
A new definition of what makes a job good | The Hill
Will DHS Again Leave H-2B Winter Industries Short Workers? | Cato at Liberty Blog
Port of New York moves ahead with ocean carrier empty container fee | C
Emerging
Right-wing wins in Brazil's Congress show staying power of 'Bolsonarismo' | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: Airlines Face a Shortage of New Boeing, Airbus Jets | W
Autos: As More Cars Hit Dealership Lots, Buyers Feel Pinch of Rising Interest Rates | W
Autos: Rivian production grows 67% in 3Q, confirms 2022 goals | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon's latest product announcements are a reminder the company is always watching | CNN
Tech: Apple’s Fall 2022 Event Products: Reviews of iPhone 14, iOS 16, Apple Watch Ultra, AirPods Pro 2 and More | W
Beyond markets
Ukrainian ambassador tells Elon Musk off after billionaire's Twitter poll | C
Trump sues CNN claiming defamation, seeks $475 million in punitive damages | R
October 03 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Volcker 2.0, Recession & Inflation
The latest economic indicators suggest that the economy is doing better than expected—supported by consumer spending but dragged down by the housing recession—but also that inflation remains too high. That alignment increases the odds of more Fed tightening than previously expected, a higher terminal fed funds rate, and a Fed-induced hard landing. A hard landing isn’t currently our economic forecast—we see the growth recession continuing through year-end. But fears of a Fed-induced hard landing are increasing bearishness in both bond and stock markets. We are assessing whether our forecasts for both S&P 500 earnings and valuation might be too optimistic. … Also: Dr. Ed reviews “Blonde” (+).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 26.
Markets
Markets are reeling from higher rates. The world economy is next | E
After Punishing Year for Stocks, Investors Aren’t Betting on Post-Midterm Rally | W
Bond Yields Are Finally Looking Attractive. What to Buy Now. | BR
How to Build a Bond Ladder for Income | BR
Column: Dollar shock threatens global economy | R
Liability Driven Investment (LDI*) – quick explainer | Word Press
Energy
Russia’s Gazprom Suspends Gas Flow to Italy | W
OPEC+ to consider oil cut of over than 1 million barrels per day | R
Central banks
Central Banks’ Higher Rates, Bond Sales Clash With Government Needs | W
‘The Fed is breaking things’ – Here’s what has Wall Street on edge as risks rise around the world | C
Opinion | Is the Fed Braking Too Hard? | N
Column: BoE in murky water with qualified 'whatever it takes' | R
Global
A European Recession Will Hurt the U.S. Economy and Complicate the Defense of Ukraine | BR
US
Inflation Keeps the U.S. From Stepping In to Slow Dollar’s Rapid Rise | W
'Big Short' investor Michael Burry suggests current economic downturn could be 'worse than 2008' | P
Recession could be big obstacle for Starbucks, Amazon unions | C
Europe
U.K. Might Look Cheap, but It’s Hardly a Bargain Yet | BR
China
How to make sense of Xi Jinping, China’s enigmatic ruler | E
Geopolitics & trade
Autos: Lithium Demand From EVs Is Strong. Shortages Will Keep Prices High. | BR
Autos: Lithium-Ion Battery Inventor Introduces New Technology for Fast-Charging, Noncombustible Batteries | UT News
Autos: Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda talks EV skepticism, 'happy dance,' his legacy | C
Retail: Walmart bets inflation will push customers to join subscription service | C
Climate
To protect Germany’s green transition, accept coal and nuclear power, says Veronika Grimm | E
Biden to visit Florida and Puerto Rico as scale of Hurricane Ian's death and destruction emerges | C
Search and rescue efforts underway in Florida after 'catastrophic' hurricane | C
Beyond markets
Elon Musk’s Texts Shatter the Myth of the Tech Genius | The Atlantic
October 01 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Troubled Times In The UK & China
In the UK, fiscal and monetary policy are at odds. Massive tax cuts and new spending programs will boost government debt—aggravating inflation even as the BOE is trying to subdue it. Bond Vigilantes clearly disapprove. … In China, the real estate sector is in shambles, and the government’s investments abroad are going belly up. A messy debt restructuring looks likely. The PBOC is hustling to prop up both the falling yuan and the weakening economy, introducing new rules to discourage shorting the currency and easing monetary policy at a time when other central banks are tightening.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 26.
Markets
Dow tumbles 500 points on Friday to end September down nearly 9% | C
Stocks Finish a Losing Week, Month and Quarter | W
Bonds May Be Having Their Worst Year Yet | N
Central banks
Fed’s Lael Brainard Warns on Inflation, Financial Stability Risks | W
PCE inflation August 2022: Inflation accelerated even more than expected in August | C
Energy
Nord Stream gas 'sabotage': who's being blamed and why? | R
U.S. has much to gain from Nord Stream damage, Russia says at U.N. | R
Nord Stream rupture may mark biggest single methane release ever recorded -UN | R
Exxon CEO Warns Biden Administration Against Limiting Fuel Exports | W
US
U.S. Consumers Boosted August Spending as High Inflation Spread | W
U.S. consumers spurn cars, couches and cruises, results show | R
Underlying Inflation Gained Steam in August | W
Why are ad sales slumping before the economy slumps? - Vox
Fast Food Chains Raise Millions to Oppose California Wage Law | W
House Approves Stopgap Funding Bill With Ukraine Aid | W
Europe
Eurozone Inflation Hits Record 10% Amid Energy Crunch | W
EU Approves Sweeping Energy-Market Intervention | W
S&P cuts UK rating outlook after tax cut plan | R
Geopolitics & trade
Russia Announces Annexation of Four Regions of Ukraine | W
U.S. Dismisses Annexation of Ukraine Regions and Imposes Sanctions on Russian Elites | W
U.S., allies need to be 'concerned' about attacks on Western infrastructure | R
North Korea fires ballistic missiles, marking fourth in a week | C
Industries & companies
Airlines: United Airlines to Suspend Operations at JFK at End of October | W
Autos: Electric and autonomous vehicle ETF falls 15% in September | C
Communications services: Facebook scrambles to escape death spiral as users flee, sales drop | C
Energy: Lithium-Ion Battery Inventor Introduces New Technology for Fast-Charging, Noncombustible Batteries - UT News | utexas.edu
Tech: Smart glasses from Amazon, Meta, and Snap are just the start | qz.com
Technology
Elon Musk Unveils Humanoid Robot Optimus at Tesla’s AI Day | W
Climate
Biden: Destruction from Hurricane Ian likely to be among the worst in U.S. history | R
Drought in U.S. West Leads Farmers to Look Elsewhere for Revenue | W
September 30 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Troubled Times In The UK & China
In the UK, fiscal and monetary policy are at odds. Massive tax cuts and new spending programs will boost government debt—aggravating inflation even as the BOE is trying to subdue it. Bond Vigilantes clearly disapprove. … In China, the real estate sector is in shambles, and the government’s investments abroad are going belly up. A messy debt restructuring looks likely. The PBOC is hustling to prop up both the falling yuan and the weakening economy, introducing new rules to discourage shorting the currency and easing monetary policy at a time when other central banks are tightening.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 26.
Markets
Stocks Close Lower in Volatile Day as Treasury Yields Resume Climb | W
Even as Oil Prices Ease, U.S. Keeps Tapping Strategic Reserve | N
Investors Fear Bond-Market Turmoil Is Entering a New Phase | W
Central banks & currencies
Fed policymakers press ahead with inflation fight, even with markets in turmoil | R
This ‘trifecta’ needs to see dampening inflation for the Fed to stop raising rates | C
Japan to confirm size of yen-buying intervention, eyes on size of war-chest | R
Europe energy
Russia says Nord Stream likely hit by state-backed 'terrorism' | R
US
U.S. Economy Weaker Than Thought in Year’s First Half, by One Measure | N
U.S. Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level in Five Months | W
Why Are Companies Still Hiring When GDP Is Shrinking? | W
Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.7%, Highest Since 2007 | W
Some federal student loan borrowers cannot consolidate for forgiveness | C
China
China’s ‘Absurd’ Covid Propaganda Stirs Rebellion | N
Geopolitics & trade
Putin to host Kremlin ceremony annexing parts of Ukraine | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Toyota CEO doubles down on EV strategy amid criticism it's not moving fast enough | C
Pharma: FDA approves controversial new drug designed to slow the progression of ALS | C
Retail: How to make the most of Amazon's 'Prime Day' and Target's 'Deal Days' | C
Tech: Apple sparks tech sell-off; Alphabet, Microsoft hit 52-week lows | C
Climate
New York State to Ban Sale of Gasoline-Powered Vehicles by 2035 | W
September 29 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Troubled Times In The UK & China
In the UK, fiscal and monetary policy are at odds. Massive tax cuts and new spending programs will boost government debt—aggravating inflation even as the BOE is trying to subdue it. Bond Vigilantes clearly disapprove. … In China, the real estate sector is in shambles, and the government’s investments abroad are going belly up. A messy debt restructuring looks likely. The PBOC is hustling to prop up both the falling yuan and the weakening economy, introducing new rules to discourage shorting the currency and easing monetary policy at a time when other central banks are tightening.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 26.
Markets
Wednesday’s market rally was ‘based on a dream’ | C
Global central banks & currencies
Bank of England Buys Bonds in Bid to Stop Spread of Crisis | W
Pension fund panic led to Bank of England's emergency intervention | C
Exclusive: China's state banks told to stock up for yuan intervention | R
'Do not bet': China's central bank PBOC warns against yuan speculation | C
Federal reserve
Column: Fed's neutral rate forecast nods to 'transitory', eventual pivot | R
Jerome Powell’s inflation-unemployment tradeoff | The Hill
Interest Rates and Fed Tightening | AIER
Fed has not done enough, must continue on its path to reset inflation expectations | C
Europe energy
Spain says Russia likely responsible for Nord Stream gas leaks | C
Fourth leak found on Nord Stream pipelines, Swedish coastguard says | R
Exclusive: Europe braces for mobile network blackouts | R
Energy Crisis Pushes German Industry to the Brink | W
Global
Developing Countries Face Stiff Economic Headwinds, World Bank Chief Says | W
US
How the United States is exporting inflation to other countries | NN
Opinion | FOMO Helped Drive Up Housing Prices in the Pandemic. What Can We Expect Next? | N
China
Chinese Developers Meltdown | C
Geopolitics & trade
How the CIA failed Iranian spies in its secret war with Tehran | R
Corporate finance
Brookfield Buys U.S. Renewable Developers for $1.5 Billion | W
Beyond markets
Ian now tropical storm after hitting Florida as a category 4 hurricane | C
The Jetsons, now 60 years old, is iconic. That's a problem. | Slate.com
September 28 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Recessions Here & There
The Fed is hawkish, investors are bearish, and now industry analysts are cutting their earnings estimates after FedEx’s recent warning about macroeconomic trends. ... The latest economic indicators still suggest a growth recession is underway in the US. … Over in Europe, economic prospects are dimming as the daylight hours shorten, with no gas likely from Russia this winter. Dour business sentiment in Germany suggests a broad-based recession there. … With debt limits for EU member countries suspended for another year, we expect governments to make plenty of investments, especially in digital and energy areas.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 26.
Markets
Dow Slips Again After Entering Bear Market | W
Treasury 10-Year Yields Rise Above 4% for First Time Since 2010 | B
Strong Dollar Is Good for the US but Bad for the World | N
Exclusive: China prepares to tweak yuan fixing process to slow its fall -source | R
Column: Copper price slump brings Chinese buyers out in force | R
Central banks
Fed Chair Powell warned of 'pain' to come. Seniors on fixed incomes are already feeling it | NN
Kashkari Says Fed Needs to Keep Tightening Until There’s Compelling Evidence of Declining Inflation | W
Fed's Daly: Do not want to tip economy into downturn | C
US
US Home Prices Fall: Case-Shiller 20-City Index Posts First Decline Since 2012 | B
July S&P Case-Shiller Index: Home prices cooled at the fastest rate in index history | C
Home Prices Suffer First Monthly Decline in Years | W
Stopgap Funding Bill Includes $12.3 Billion in New Ukraine Aid | W
Why is fiscal responsibility not discussed anymore? | The Hill
Geopolitics & trade
EU sees sabotage of Nord Stream, warns against attacks on 'active infrastructure' | R
Ukraine 'sham' referendum results point to Russia annexation | R
Industries & companies
Autos: EV Tax Credits to Spur More Vehicle Sales Are Entering a Critical Phase | W
Autos: Ford unveils new F-Series Super Duty trucks | C
Financials: Wall Street to Pay $1.8 Billion in Fines Over Traders’ Use of Banned Messaging Apps | W
Beyond markets
Opinion | Do Not Bring Your ‘Whole Self’ to Work | N
Cuba entirely without power after Hurricane Ian | R
Teacher, Staff Shortages Reported by About Half of Schools, Survey Finds | W
September 27 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Powell’s Latest Pivot Shocks Markets
Pessimism and bearishness are widespread; from a contrarian standpoint, that spells buying opportunities for the long term. … Meanwhile, monetary tightening appears to be making headway against inflation given the dollar’s strength and weakening commodity prices. We think PCED inflation peaked in June and is on track to fall to 3.0%-4.0% next year. One more 75bps rate hike in November may be enough. … We’ve reassessed our economic and stock market forecasts given renewed Fed hawkishness. We still expect a growth recession and range-bound S&P 500, but with greater short-term downside risk. And we now see the 10-year bond yield peaking at 4.25%. … Also: A dizzying review of Powell’s recent pivots.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 26.
Markets
Dow Industrials Fall Into Bear Market | W
The Dow is in a bear market. What does that mean? | R
Everything-Selloff on Wall Street Deepens on 98% Recession Odds | B
Why Bonds Make Sense for Your Portfolio | Financial Advisors | U.S. News
Central banks
Fed officials stare down markets, say inflation is top focus | R
Boston Fed President Says More Rate Increases Needed to Cool Inflation | W
Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester Says More Restrictive Policy Needed for Longer | B
China’s Central Bank Moves Further to Bolster the Yuan | W
US
Remote Work Drove Over 60% of US House-Price Surge, Fed Study Finds | B
Silicon Valley Had Its Heyday. Can Tech Ecosystems Now Grow Inland? | N
Biden’s Student-Loan Forgiveness Plan Could Cost $400 Billion, CBO Says | W
Europe
British Pound, Bonds Roiled as Tax-Cut Plans Spook Investors | W
China
World Bank Cuts China Growth Forecast as Covid-19, Real-Estate Crunch Take Toll | W
China Industrial Profits Slump Further as Producer Prices Slow | B
China Reins In Its Belt and Road Program, $1 Trillion Later | W
Japan
Japan’s 20-Year Bond Yield Rises Above 1% for First Time Since 2015 | B
Japan prepares to bid farewell to slain Abe with controversial state funeral | R
Geopolitics & trade
Ukraine annexation votes to end amid Russian mobilisation exodus | R
Iran says U.S. attempting to use unrest to weaken country | R
Russia’s War in Ukraine to Cost Global Economy $2.8 Trillion, OECD Says | W
Putin grants Russian citizenship to whistleblower Edward Snowden | C
Industries & companies
Airlines: Southwest Airlines hired a record 3,000 flight attendants so far this year | C
Autos: Ford Seeks New Trial After $1.7 Billion Jury Verdict in Truck Rollover Lawsuit | W
Autos: China's new electric cars cost more to insure than fuel-powered cars | C
Pharma: Biogen to pay $900 million to settle drug kickback allegations | C
Corporate finance
IPO Stocks Have Tumbled, Hobbling Demand for New Listings | W
Beyond markets
Latest Track for Tropical Storm Ian: Where It Will May Make Landfall | B
NASA’s DART Spacecraft to Crash Into Asteroid Tonight in Planetary Defense Test | W
September 26 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: ‘Keeping At It’
We’re in a period of global gloom, with pessimism blanketing different countries for different reasons. In the US, measures of consumer, investor, and business sentiment all have sunk recently, which the stock market mirrors. America’s despondency stems much from the Fed’s words and deeds as it attempts to corral inflation at all costs. … Today, we offer a brief review of Fed Chair Powell’s public statements over recent months, tracing his increasing hawkishness. … And: How’s the economy been holding up in the face of Fed hawkishness? So far, so good. The latest data jibe with our growth recession scenario, but the risks of a full-blown recession are obviously increasing.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 19.
Markets
Buying the Stock-Market Dip Is Backfiring. Investors Keep Piling In Anyway. | W
Junk-Bond Yields Top 8%. It Could Be a Good Time to Buy. | BR
Why Standard Deviation Is the Wrong Way to Measure Risk in a Bear Market | BR
Never Mind Growth vs. Value Stocks, Look to Beta | Morningstar
Central banks
Central Banks May Stoke Risks by Raising Interest Rates Together | W
The Fed Appears More Optimistic Than Some Investors. Here’s Why. | N
Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects job losses but says there’s a really good chance to get to 2% inflation without killing the economy | C
US
The U.S. Is Running Short of Land for Housing | W
Fight Over Joe Manchin’s Permitting Overhaul Clouds Stopgap Funding Bill Outlook | W
Breaking Down New York’s Long-Awaited Fraud Lawsuit Against Donald Trump | The New Yorker
Europe
How afraid should Europe be of Giorgia Meloni? | E
Exclusive: Italy and Intel pick Veneto as preferred region for new chip plant | R
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. warns of catastrophic consequences if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine | R
Zelenskyy on Putin's threat of nuclear weapons: 'I don't think he's bluffing' | C
Vladimir Putin vows to send more invaders. The West should arm Ukraine faster | E
China Stresses Its Taiwan Stance at U.N. | W
North Korea fires ballistic missile ahead of U.S. VP Harris visit | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Toyota Engages With Critics of Its EV Push | W
Autos: Ford Stock Is Still a Buy, Despite Supply Issues. Here’s Why. | BR
Energy: APA Corp. Scours the Globe for Oil and Gas. Its Stock Could Surge. | BR
Financials: New minimum tax could hit Berkshire Hathaway and Amazon hardest, study shows | C
Healthcare: Healthcare Learned a Lot From Covid. 12 Ways to Invest Now. | BR
Media: 'Avatar' re-release shows franchise's overseas strength | C
Media: 'The Woman King' shows why the box office needs more mid-budget movies | C
Pharma: Trial Results for Biogen’s New Alzheimer’s Drug Are Coming Soon and Have Huge Implications | BR
Retail: What Kroger, Walmart, Target learned from China about grocery's future | C
Climate
An energy crisis and geopolitics are creating a new-look Gulf | E
Climate Change Forces French Vineyards to Alter the Way They Make Wine | W
Beyond markets
How to keep the brain healthy | E
Why Jack Welch Wouldn’t Cut It Today | Institutional Investor
September 24 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumers, Lithium & Waves
With recession fears topping investors’ worry list, why has the cyclical S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector outperformed every other sector over the past two months? Jackie explores. … Also: Lithium demand is expected to surge in coming years, driven by EVs—but can supply keep up? Would-be lithium producers face daunting roadblocks. … And: A look at the latest wave in alternative energy, wave energy.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 19.
Markets
Dow Closes at Lowest Level of 2022 as Growth Fears Roil Markets | W
Dow drops nearly 500 points to close at new low for 2022 on rising recession fears | C
Stocks tumble, dollar soars and bonds plunge as recession fears grow | R
From the Fed to Europe's currency crisis, here's what's behind this selloff in financial markets | C
Central bankers
World’s Central Banks Race to Raise Rates After Fed Increase | W
Energy
A Natural Gas Shortage Is Looming For The U.S. | OilPrice.com
Column: Recession will be necessary to rebalance the oil market | R
Europe
U.K.’s Sweeping Tax Cuts Send Pound Tumbling, Bond Yields Higher | W
Italy's election campaign ends, tensions between EU and right flares | R
Italy’s Election Is the First Test of the West’s Anti-Putin Resolve | W
US
Middle-Income Households Feel Bigger Pinch From Inflation, Report Finds | W
Geopolitics & trade
Russia holds votes in occupied parts of Ukraine; Kyiv says residents coerced | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Ford’s Latest Supply-Chain Problem: a Shortage of Blue Oval Badges | W
Materials: Column: Russian supply uncertainty weighs on aluminium market | R
Tech: Tech stocks notch worst two-week stretch since the start of pandemic | C
Beyond markets
Is the Hyperloop Doomed? | NYT
Some investors backing out of SPAC merging with Trump's media firm | R
World Bank’s David Malpass Says He Isn’t Resigning Amid Criticism of His Climate Views | W
September 23 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumers, Lithium & Waves
With recession fears topping investors’ worry list, why has the cyclical S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector outperformed every other sector over the past two months? Jackie explores. … Also: Lithium demand is expected to surge in coming years, driven by EVs—but can supply keep up? Would-be lithium producers face daunting roadblocks. … And: A look at the latest wave in alternative energy, wave energy.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 19.
Markets
Bond selloff risks liquidation of world's most crowded trades- BofA | R
2-year Treasury tops 4.2%, a 15-year high as Fed continues to jolt short-term rates higher | C
Oil prices down 3% with recession fears in focus | R
Goldman Sachs cuts 2022 target for S&P 500 by 16% | R
HSBC warns investors to avoid European stocks | C
Central banks
ECB seeks to cut subsidy to banks as rate hikes leave it on hook, sources say | R
Global
War, Inflation Knock World Economy Off Balance | W
US
Charts suggest inflation could soon come down ‘substantially’ | C
From a booming economy to an economic bust! | Washington Examiner
Geopolitics & trade
Putin’s ‘incredibly dangerous’ nuclear threats raise the risk of an unprecedented disaster | C
Google Sees Russia Coordinating With Hackers in Cyberattacks Tied to Ukraine War | W
U.S. vs. China: The Race to Launch the Next Generation of Space Telescopes (video) | W
Industries & companies
Logistics: FedEx hikes package rates, details cost cutting as demand weakens globally | C
Pandemic
WHO warns ability to identify new Covid variants is diminishing as testing declines | C
September 22 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumers, Lithium & Waves
With recession fears topping investors’ worry list, why has the cyclical S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector outperformed every other sector over the past two months? Jackie explores. … Also: Lithium demand is expected to surge in coming years, driven by EVs—but can supply keep up? Would-be lithium producers face daunting roadblocks. … And: A look at the latest wave in alternative energy, wave energy.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 19.
Markets
Fed Rate Decision Sends U.S. Treasury Yields in Different Directions | W
Japan Jumps Into Market to Buy Yen for First Time in 24 Years; Currency Rallies | W
Japan intervenes in FX market to stem yen falls after BOJ keeps low rates | C
Energy
The U.K. has lifted its fracking ban, digging up a long-running debate | C
Central banks
The Fed forecasts hiking rates as high as 4.6% before ending inflation fight | C
Fed rate hike September 2022: Rates raised by three-quarters of a percentage point | C
US
U.S. Home Sales and Prices Fell in August as Mortgage Rates Rose | W
After Years of Low Mortgage Rates, Home Sellers Are Scarce | W
Workers’ Changing Attitudes Tighten Labor Market | W
Opinion | Can Republicans Tax the Rich? | N
House Approves Electoral Count Act Overhaul as Senate Weighs Own Changes | W
Europe
Italian election: Italy turns to the right with FDI's Georgia Meloni | C
Geopolitics & trade
Russia begins massive Ukraine war call-up, spurring some men to flee | R
Ukraine war: Russia arrests over 1,300 after Putin mobilizes troops | C
Biden Urges the World to Stand United Against Russia in Address to U.N. | W
Ecuador Reaches Deal With China to Restructure Debt | W
Semiconductor alliances between U.S. and Asia could hold back China | C
Industries & companies
Airlines: Airline tickets could become even more expensive, aviation execs warn | C
Communications services: Meta Quietly Reduces Staff in Cost-Cutting Push | W
Retail: Target plans to hire 100,000 seasonal workers and start deals early | C
Climate
China urges Europe to take positive steps on climate change | R
Will the Patagonia founder's gift help save the world? | The Week
September 21 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Earnings & Central Banks
S&P 500 forward earnings works well as a leading indicator of actual results during expansions and a coincident indicator of them during recessions; the same goes for forward revenues and forward profit margins. … Our takeaways from the three forward data series add up to a flat forward earnings outlook through early next year—a rosy viewpoint amid widespread recession trepidation. Our forward earnings and P/E forecasts together suggest a range-bound S&P 500 for the rest of this year. … Also: Melissa ferrets out the policy intentions of the ECB and BOJ.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 19.
Markets
S&P 500 History Points to a Sharp Bounce After Fed Meeting | B
Why Index Funds Could Fade | BR
Woke Wall Street is in for a reckoning | FO
High Natural-Gas Prices Push European Manufacturers to Shift to the U.S. | W
Central banks
Fed expected to hike rates by three-quarters of a point again, but its forecast may matter most | C
‘Rip off the Band-Aid’: Wells Fargo makes case for 150 basis point hike at Fed meeting | C
US
Climbing Housing Costs Could Prop Up Inflation for a While | W
August Home-Sales Report Comes as Mortgage Rates Rise | W
Mortgage demand rises for the first time in six weeks, despite sharply higher interest rates | C
The puzzling disconnect between production and employment | Hill
Democrats’ push for guaranteed income is a slap in the face to working people | P
Food Supply Stays Tight as Disappointing U.S. Harvest Adds to Global Challenges | W
China
China’s Vast 14,000-Bed Covid Isolation Center Revealed in Drone Footage | B
Geopolitics & trade
Putin accuses West of 'nuclear blackmail', mobilises more troops for Ukraine | R
Germany nationalizes energy giant Uniper as Russia squeezes gas supplies | C
European businesses are rethinking their plans for a ‘closed’ China | C
Industries & companies
Airlines: American Airlines will add new premium suites in 2024 in race for high-paying travelers | C
Autos: Ford stock suffers worst day since 2011 after cost warning, shedding $7 billion in market value | C
Technology
Watch Regent take its prototype electric seaglider out for a test flight | C
The robots are here. And they are making you fries. | WP
September 20 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: How’s Business?
Today we focus on business sales, showing how it relates to the key economic indicators that feed into our economic outlook and how it correlates with S&P 500 companies’ aggregate and forward revenues, feeding into our stock market outlook. … For the economy, we forecast a “rolling recession”—a.k.a. “growth recession”—that depresses different industries at different times but avoids shrinking the overall economy. For the S&P 500, we estimate forward EPS of $215 this year, up 3.1% y/y, and $235 next year, up 9.3%.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 19.
Markets
Stocks Rise as Investors Await This Week’s Fed Meeting | W
Wall Street ends choppy session higher with focus firmly on Fed | R
Dow closes nearly 200 points higher, stocks snap two-day losing streak to start big Fed week | C
Need Your Money Now? The Markets Aren’t Helping. | N
Credit
10-year Treasury yield jumps to 3.51%, the highest level since 2011 | C
Rising Bond Yields Change the Calculus for Stocks | W
Central banks
Jerome Powell’s Inflation Whisperer: Paul Volcker | W
US
More homebuilders lower prices, sentiment falls for ninth straight month | C
Put Away the Smelling Salts, the Fed Doesn’t Threaten Washington’s ‘Solvency’ | FO
The Subprime Loans for College Hiding in Plain Sight | N
Geopolitics & trade
China Is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says | W
EU Seeks New Powers Over Supply Chains During Emergencies | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: FAA rejects proposal to halve pilots' flight-time requirement amid shortage | C
Autos: Ford Warns Parts Shortages Will Lead to Higher-Than-Planned Number of Unfinished Vehicles | W
Materials: This Should Have Been a Great Year for Gold. Here’s Why It Isn’t. | W
Corporate finance
VW Sets Price Range for Porsche IPO | W
Technology
China’s Factories Accelerate Robotics Push as Workforce Shrinks | W
Beyond markets
Biden Draws Criticism for Saying Covid-19 Pandemic Is Over | W
September 19 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Blackouts & Liquidity
Fed Chair Powell seems to be channeling his 1970s predecessor Paul Volcker—who masterfully tamed high inflation amid a severe recession. Today, we assess how August’s CPI shocker may alter the FOMC’s economic projections and policy decisions. … We expect Wednesday’s FOMC meeting to bring a 100bps hike in the fed funds rate to 3.25%-3.50% and more hawkish projections of committee members, suggesting a terminal rate this tightening cycle of 4.25%-4.50%. … For the economy, we expect the current rolling recession to continue without turning into an official recession because there is ample liquidity to avert a credit crunch. And: Dr. Ed reviews “Five Days at Memorial” (+ + +).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 6.
Markets
Stocks subdued, dollar firm for central bank jamboree | R
Oil Prices Retreat After an Earlier Surge. Why That Makes Perfect Sense. | BR
Dollar off 20-year peak as Fed headlines big central bank week | R
Dollar’s Rise Spells Trouble for Global Economies | W
Central banks
Do Wages Drive Prices, or Vice Versa? The Answer Matters for Interest Rates | W
US
Consumers Show Signs of Uncertainty Amid High Inflation | W
America still has an inflation problem | E
Emerging markets
India, Indonesia, and Brazil Are About to Outshine Other Emerging Markets. Here’s How Investors Can Profit. | BR
‘At the Breaking Point’: Tibetans, Under Lockdown, Make Rare Cries for Help | N
China’s Factories Accelerate Robotics Push as Workforce Shrinks | W
China’s Ponzi-like property market is eroding faith in the government | E
Frugal is the new cool for young Chinese as economy falters | R
Geopolitics & trade
Biden says U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion | R
Vladimir Putin’s Energy War With Europe Seems to Falter | W
Vladimir Putin’s war is failing. The West should help it fail faster | E
Op-ed: Putin's battlefield failures provide an opportunity for the world to step up efforts to help end the war in Ukraine | C
Industries & companies
Autos: Electric Vehicles Took Off. Car Makers Weren’t Ready | W
Energy: Electric Bills Soar Across the Country as Winter Looms | W
Financials: Big Regional Banks Might Face New Rules for Dealing With a Crisis | W
Materials: Newmont Stock Cheap and Has a 5% Dividend Yield. It’s Time to Buy. | BR
Media: Netflix and Disney+ Ads Are Almost Here. What It Means for Streaming Stocks. | BR
Retail: Home-Goods Retailers Jolted by Slowdown in Housing Market | W
Retail: Bed Bath & Beyond closing 150 stores. Map of ones on the list so far | C
Climate
Devastating floods like Pakistan’s will be more common in a warming world | E
Corporate finance
Volkswagen targets $70.1 billion to $75.1 billion valuation in planned Porsche IPO | C
Technology
China testing floating car that uses magnets to hover at 143 mph | C
Beyond markets
As Britons Wait to See Queen’s Coffin, ‘The Queue’ Takes On a Life of Its Own | W
Games That Push the Brain to the Limit Get Scientists’ Attention in Fight Against Dementia | W
September 17 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: MegaCap-8, Strikes & Hydrogen
How the mighty have fallen. We’re talking about the eight large-capitalization stocks dubbed the “MegaCap-8,” which collectively—and most individually—have sorely underperformed benchmarks. When these behemoths swoon, most Growth portfolios feel the thud. … Also: Unions are up in arms over wages that aren’t surging as fast as inflation, and they’re feeling empowered by the tight labor market. Strikes may be coming. Jackie looks at some hot spots in various industries. … And: Don’t dismiss hydrogen as a green alternative to fossil fuels. It’s starting to look like the go-to fuel source for energy-intensive industrial processes.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 6.
Markets
U.S. Stocks Close Lower After FedEx Warning | W
Stocks close lower on Friday, extending sell off for worst week since June for S&P 500 and Nasdaq | C
Energy
Column: U.S. gas producers struggle to meet demand | R
Putin tells Europe: if you want gas then open Nord Stream 2 | R
Germany Takes Control of Oil Refineries Owned by Russia’s Rosneft | W
Central banks
Forecast for Fed terminal rate hits new high, shaking stocks and bonds | R
US
Strikes Becoming More Common Amid Inflation, Tight Labor Market | W
As Mortgage Rates Top 6%, More Borrowers Choose Adjustable-Rate Loans | W
NYC Mayor Eric Adams asks tech execs to keep companies in the city | C
New York City is nearing the tipping point in return to office work | C
Geopolitics & trade
Putin Threatens to Walk Away From Ukraine Grain Deal | W
Exclusive: Zelenskiy accuses Russia of war crimes, sees no early end to war | R
Industries & companies
Retail: Home Depot’s customers have been resilient despite turmoil, CEO says | C
Shipping: FedEx Stock Tumbles After Warning on Economic Trends | W
Technology
Scientists hail autoimmune disease therapy breakthrough | Science | The Guardian
Crypto
Here's what's in Biden framework to regulate crypto | C
September 16 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: MegaCap-8, Strikes & Hydrogen
How the mighty have fallen. We’re talking about the eight large-capitalization stocks dubbed the “MegaCap-8,” which collectively—and most individually—have sorely underperformed benchmarks. When these behemoths swoon, most Growth portfolios feel the thud. … Also: Unions are up in arms over wages that aren’t surging as fast as inflation, and they’re feeling empowered by the tight labor market. Strikes may be coming. Jackie looks at some hot spots in various industries. … And: Don’t dismiss hydrogen as a green alternative to fossil fuels. It’s starting to look like the go-to fuel source for energy-intensive industrial processes.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 6.
Markets
U.S. Stocks Close Lower as Investors Eye Next Fed Meeting | W
Oil extends losses on recession fears | R
Dollar holds ground ahead of Fed, yuan under pressure | R
Global
World Bank sees rising risk of global recession in 2023 | R
Globalization of trade isn't ending, despite Covid, war, inflation | C
Central banks
Opinion: 3 things the Fed needs to see before it stops hiking rates | NN
US I
U.S. Retail Sales Rose 0.3% in August, Showing Resilience in Face of Inflation | W
U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Last Week | W
US II
This is how much Social Security benefits are likely to rise next year | MSN
Mortgage Rates Top 6% for the First Time Since the 2008 Financial Crisis | W
Biden says haters won't have 'last word'; wants to end social media immunity | R
Europe
Households a Wild Card as Europe Moves to End Russian Gas Dependence | W
How Did Europe Stumble Into an Energy Catastrophe? (nymag.com)
China
China economy: August industrial output, retail sales | C
Japan
Japan PM's support tumbles as anger over state funeral grows | R
Geopolitics & trade
Russia’s Vladimir Putin Says China’s Xi Jinping Raised Concerns on Ukraine War | W
Ukraine Battles Flooding After Russian Strike on Dam | W
Industries & companies
Chemicals: From Shortage to Glut: Scotts Miracle-Gro Is Buried in Fertilizer | W
Railroads: Railroads and labor unions reach tentative deal to avert strike | C
Shipping: FedEx CEO says he expects the economy to enter a ‘worldwide recession’ | C
Shipping: FedEx to Close Offices, Park Aircraft After Warning of Sales Shortfall | W
September 15 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: MegaCap-8, Strikes & Hydrogen
How the mighty have fallen. We’re talking about the eight large-capitalization stocks dubbed the “MegaCap-8,” which collectively—and most individually—have sorely underperformed benchmarks. When these behemoths swoon, most Growth portfolios feel the thud. … Also: Unions are up in arms over wages that aren’t surging as fast as inflation, and they’re feeling empowered by the tight labor market. Strikes may be coming. Jackie looks at some hot spots in various industries. … And: Don’t dismiss hydrogen as a green alternative to fossil fuels. It’s starting to look like the go-to fuel source for energy-intensive industrial processes.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 6.
Markets
Stocks Edge Higher After Steep Selloff | W
Markets Keep Making the Same Mistake About Inflation | W
Oil rises on weakening dollar, potential supply disruptions | R
Central banks
Brace for recession as the Fed spikes interest rates and inflation soars | NYP
Federal Reserve Wants Citigroup to Move Faster to Fix Problems With Its Risk Systems | W
US
Inflation for U.S. Suppliers Remained Elevated in August | W
U.S. Inflation Remained High in August | W
Possible U.S. Railroad Strike Could Fuel More Inflation | W
Battery Recycling Race Heats Up After Inflation Reduction Act | W
Europe
Russia’s Economic War Hits Europe’s Factories | W
Japan
Japan posts record trade deficit in August as energy imports soar | R
Industries & companies
Autos: 2024 Ford Mustang: Gas-powered muscle car to take on electric rivals | C
Autos: Ford asks dealers to invest in EVs as it chases Tesla-like profit | C
Autos: Tesla struggles with Elon Musk's strict return to office policy | C
Railroads: U.S. passenger railroad Amtrak to cancel all long-distance trains | C
Geopolitics & trade
China’s next Taiwan targets are lifelines of the US economy | The Hill
Russia Strikes Zelensky’s Hometown as Ukrainian President Visits Recaptured Territory | W
Ukraine's Zelenskiy sees damage in recaptured towns; Russia strikes city water system | R
Technology
Taiwan president warns of 'volatile' challenges facing chip industry | R
Climate
Patagonia founder gives away company to help fight climate crisis | R
Newsom to CNBC: California avoided rolling blackouts in extreme heat
September 14 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Corporate Finance Review
An Austrian assessment of August’s CPI. … And: It’s time again to focus on US corporate finance. We find American businesses in great shape—with record-high profits and cash flow on income statements and solid balance sheets. The effect of the chronic labor shortage on profit margins is businesses’ biggest challenge, but workarounds are coming that should boost productivity. … Also: Progressives give share buybacks a bad name, but they play a key role in corporate finance: counteracting the dilution from stock compensation plans. … And: Both worker compensation and capital spending remain on healthy uptrends, also contrary to popular (progressive) belief. … Finally, we recap capital markets activity from Fed data.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 6.
Markets
Analysis: Why the dollar's wrecking-ball rally is not done yet | R
Central banks
Inflation Data Scrambles Fed Rate Outlook Again | W
Energy
EU seeks $140 billion to cope with energy crisis as utilities teeter | R
EU Seeks to Raise $140 Billion Clawing Back Energy Profits | W
EU plans windfall levies on energy firms to tackle price spike | R
Europe can shrug off Putin’s Chinese gas Plan B | R
Global Oil Demand Undermined by China Lockdowns, IEA Says | W
US
Inflation isn't just about fuel costs anymore, as price increases broaden across the economy | C
U.S. Inflation Remained High in August | W
Feel burnt out at work? The Great Resignation left many workers behind. - Vox
Mortgage demand declines 29% from last year as rates eclipse 6% | C
Europe
UK inflation rate unexpectedly dips to 9.9% as fuel prices decline | C
Geopolitics & trade
EXCLUSIVE U.S. weighs China sanctions to deter Taiwan action, Taiwan presses EU | R
Putin, Erdogan to Meet Amid Questions Over Ukraine Grain Deal | W
As Ukraine recaptures lost land, is this a turning point in the war? | C
Industries & companies
Retail: Walmart, Target Urge Lawmakers to Pass Bill Taking Aim at Visa, Mastercard Fees | W
Pandemic
Johns Hopkins Slows Frequency of Covid-19 Data Publication | W
Covid-19 booster shots may become as routine as the flu shot | MSNBC
Corporate finance
Wall Street slump leads to 50% plunge in JPMorgan advisory revenue | C
Beyond markets
Royal Family Will Unite to Accompany Queen Elizabeth II’s Coffin Through London | W
September 13 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Keeping Up With The Joneses
Q2 GDP revisions may well show that the US economy was not in a recession during H1 after all. If so, we have the consumer to thank. Consumer spending has held up well this year despite depressed sentiment and inflation-eroded purchasing power. But purchasing power soon should get a shot in the arm as wage inflation starts outpacing price inflation. … Also: A look at how much the average US household spends and on what. … News flash: “The Joneses” have been spending as though they’ve never been better off—because they haven’t! Inflation-adjusted consumption per household has been running at a record high.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 6.
Markets
US Inflation Data Will Determine If Stock Rally Continues | B
Inflation 'collapse' will spark big stock market gains: Credit Suisse | C
JPMorgan slashes EM corporate debt issuance forecast by a third | R
Commodities & currencies
Oil Extends Advance as Weaker US Dollar Offsets Demand Concerns | B
U.S. emergency oil reserves tumble to lowest since 1984 | R
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Down 13 Weeks in a Row | W
Central banks
NY Fed Says Consumers Saw in August Steep Declines in Future Inflation | W
Falling gas prices are raising hopes that inflation is slowing, New York Fed survey shows | C
Fed is likely to pause by year end, says Evercore's Julian Emanuel | C
Earliest BOJ Shift May Come in Mid-2023, Ex-Board Member Says | B
US
Sliding Earnings Forecasts Pose Next Test for Markets | W
World's Hottest Housing Markets Are Down All Over as Interest Rates Hike | B
Guaranteed Income Programs Spring Up City by City | N
Industries & companies
Financials: Goldman Sachs to kick off Wall Street layoff season with hundreds of job cuts this month | C
Restaurants: Starbucks to unveil 'reinvention' strategy at investor day on Tuesday | C
Tech: Apple iOS 16 released: Here's what's new and how to get it | C
Travel: Expedia CEO: 'Business travel is back' true to my pandemic prediction | C
Technology
Assembly OSM makes pre-fab high rises like Boeing makes airplanes | C
Pandemic
Covid-19 Illnesses Are Keeping at Least 500,000 Workers Out of U.S. Labor Force, Study Says | W
September 12 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: What’s The Matter With Productivity?
We aren’t giving up on our “Roaring 2020s” scenario. The idea is that labor shortages should trigger capital spending on technology that boosts productivity. The pandemic derailed that train over the first three years of the decade, exacerbating the chronic labor shortage and temporarily squashing productivity growth. We expect productivity growth to resume during H2 and strengthen to peak around 3.5%-4.0% within the next few years. … Boosting this rosy scenario: US manufacturers are spending more on productivity-enhancing tech as they expand domestic production capacity—which should continue as they move out of China.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 6.
Markets
Wall Street’s top analysts are bullish on these stocks amid an uncertain economy | C
Europe’s Unfolding Crises Could Impact U.S. Stocks. Here’s How. | BR
For Wall Street, a Strong Dollar Is Front and Center | W
Market Volatility Spells Opportunity for Options-Savvy Investors | BR
Why Is the Dollar So Strong? American Innovation | W
ESG on the edge: Controversy weighs on sustainable ETFs | C
Energy I
How Europe’s Energy Crisis Could Play Out | BR
How to deal with Europe’s energy crisis | E
Oil Prices Slump as Recession Fears Grow | W
Treasury Spells Out How Firms Can Comply With Russian Oil-Price Cap | W
Energy II
Korean nuclear fusion reactor achieves 100 million°C for 30 seconds | New Scientist
Elon Musk Slams Fusion, Says Future of Energy Is Wind and Solar | Futurism
Central banks
Quantitative Tightening Is About to Ramp Up. What It Means for Markets. | BR
US
Inflation Showed Signs of Easing in Several Industries in August | W
U.S. Heat Wave Hits Supermarkets’ Produce Sections | W
China
Will China’s economy ever overtake America’s? | E
Evergrande crisis deepens after lender seizes headquarters | FT
Geopolitics & trade
Xi to meet Putin in first trip outside China since COVID began | R
West weighs contentious anti-China move as U.N. rights council opens | R
Ukraine offensive 'snowballs' with fall of Russian stronghold | R
India’s Rice Export Ban to Further Strain Global Food Supplies | W
Industries & companies
Consumer discretionary: Amazon Buys Warehouse Robotics Company Cloostermans | W
Financials: PNC Financial Services Has Big Ambitions—and a 3.4% Dividend Yield | BR
Materials: Alcoa Has a Plan for Zero Emissions. Buy the Stock While It’s a Bargain. | BR
Retail: Should You Buy Target Stock? Yes, Its Problems Won’t Last Forever. | BR
Retail: Where Walmart, Amazon, Target are spending billions in slowing economy | C
Theme Parks: Everything we learned at Disney's parks panel at the 2022 D23 Expo | C
Pandemic
Covid-19 Is Still Killing Hundreds of Americans Daily | W
September 10 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Bad Times In Europe & China
European governments aren’t about to leave their people out in the cold after Russia suspended its gas deliveries to Germany indefinitely. Jackie examines plans they’ve pulled together to keep people warm, businesses open, and utilities financially viable. … Also: China has been fighting to vanquish Covid via strict lockdowns whenever and wherever the slippery foe appears. The government’s failure to rid the country of Covid is one problem leaders will want to keep swept under the rug when the Chinese Communist Party meets in mid-October. Another is a UN report shining a spotlight on China’s outrageous human rights abuses perpetrated against Uyghurs.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 6.
Markets
Dow closes more than 300 points higher; stocks snap 3-week Fed-induced slide | C
Forced Buying Puts a Price Floor Under Stocks Nobody Else Wants to Own | B
Credit
Municipal Bonds Suddenly Look Cheap. Some Are Tax Traps. | W
Buy US High-Yield Debt as Inflation Hedge, Nuveen’s Malik Says | B
Energy
European Governments Back Broad Intervention in Energy Markets | W
Russian oil price cap: G-7 tries to recruit countries | C
How a CEO Rescued a Big Bet on Big Oil; ‘There Were a Lot of Doubters’ | W
Central banks
Fed Officials Back Another Large Rate Increase | W
Fed's Waller: need aggressive rate hikes now while economy can take it | R
How the Fed Screwed Up the Housing Market
US
Confused about the housing market? Here's what's happening | C
US Household Net Worth Falls Most on Record on Slump in Stocks | B
New Tax on Stock Buybacks Would Have Raised Over $8 Billion in 2021, Study Says | W
UK
Prince Charles became king after Queen Elizabeth II’s death. How will he rule the UK? | Vox
Queen Elizabeth's death comes as a new economic era for UK begins | C
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. working with U.N. on Russia food, fertilizer export complaints | R
Ukraine’s Rapid Advance in East Puts Russian Forces on Defensive | W
France, Germany and Other EU Countries Pledge to Advance Minimum Tax | W
White House Weighs Order to Screen U.S. Investment in Tech in China, Other Countries | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: Democrats want probe of airline Covid bailouts over staff buyouts | C
Media: Summer Movie Season Fizzles Out, With Few Blockbusters to Count On This Fall | W
Climate
California Wildfires Force Evacuations, While Fire Threat in Oregon Causes Power Shutdowns | W
Beyond markets
New York declares polio state of emergency to boost vaccination rates | C
September 09 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Bad Times In Europe & China
European governments aren’t about to leave their people out in the cold after Russia suspended its gas deliveries to Germany indefinitely. Jackie examines plans they’ve pulled together to keep people warm, businesses open, and utilities financially viable. … Also: China has been fighting to vanquish Covid via strict lockdowns whenever and wherever the slippery foe appears. The government’s failure to rid the country of Covid is one problem leaders will want to keep swept under the rug when the Chinese Communist Party meets in mid-October. Another is a UN report shining a spotlight on China’s outrageous human rights abuses perpetrated against Uyghurs.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 6.
Markets
Stocks End Higher Amid New Fed Comments | W
Broad Declines Drag Bonds Into Rare Bear Market | W
Central banks
Fed’s Powell Affirms Need to Act Strongly to Fight Inflation | W
Powell vows to raise rates to fight inflation 'until the job is done' | R
Fed's Powell: Fed's two mandates not in conflict | R
Businesses Expect Economy to Lose More Steam, Fed’s Beige Book Says | W
ECB Raises Interest Rates by Historic 0.75 Point as Europe Stares at Recession | W
US
Mortgage Rates Hit 5.89%, Highest Level Since 2008 | W
Why We Expect Inflation to Fall in 2023 | Morningstar
Opinion: We could see slow economic growth for the rest of the decade | NN
Janet Yellen Renews Call for Tax Hikes on Rich, Social-Spending Boost | B
Yellen sees lower gas prices putting downward pressure on U.S. inflation | R
Yellen says Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS Act rescue U.S. economy | R
China
China’s Lending Strategy in Emerging Markets Risks Prolonging Borrowers’ Pain | W
Geopolitics & trade
Exclusive: German economy ministry reviews measures to curb China business | R
N.Korea makes nuclear weapons policy 'irreversible' with new law - KCNA | R
Russian Billionaire Mikhail Fridman Offers $1 Billion to Ukraine in Hope of Sanctions Relief | W
Industries & companies
Autos: GM bets on electric Equinox to kick-start 'massive adoption' of EVs | R
Climate
Edison Warns Southern California Customers of Power Shutoff on Fire Risk | B
Wildfires Add New Threat to Escalate California’s Power Crisis | B
Companies Are Buying Large Numbers of Carbon Offsets That Don’t Cut Emissions | W
Beyond markets
Queen Elizabeth II Dies at 96 After 70 Years on the Throne | W
NASA repairing hydrogen leak to launch Artemis 1 mission in late Sept | R
September 08 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Bad Times In Europe & China
European governments aren’t about to leave their people out in the cold after Russia suspended its gas deliveries to Germany indefinitely. Jackie examines plans they’ve pulled together to keep people warm, businesses open, and utilities financially viable. … Also: China has been fighting to vanquish Covid via strict lockdowns whenever and wherever the slippery foe appears. The government’s failure to rid the country of Covid is one problem leaders will want to keep swept under the rug when the Chinese Communist Party meets in mid-October. Another is a UN report shining a spotlight on China’s outrageous human rights abuses perpetrated against Uyghurs.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 6.
Markets
Dow closes more than 400 points higher, Nasdaq snaps 7-day slump as Wall Street shakes off rate hike concerns | C
Stocks Shrug Off Growth Concerns, Rise in Broad-Based Reversal | W
Stocks Set for Reprieve After Drop in Oil, Yields: Markets Wrap | B
Wall Street reaches four-week highs as bond yields drop | R
Central banks
Fed on Path for Another 0.75-Point Interest-Rate Lift After Powell’s Inflation Pledge | W
U.S. firms see tentative progress on inflation and labor supply, Fed says | R
Fed Vice Chair Brainard vows ‘we are in this for as long as it takes’ to stop inflation | C
New Fed banking chief targeting crypto and climate change as top priorities | C
Fed’s Top Banking Regulator Signals Tougher Merger Reviews, ‘Living Wills’ | W
US
Quiet Quitters Make Up Half the U.S. Workforce, Gallup Says | W
The Case for a Soft Landing: How High Inflation Could End Without Recession | W
It's a Housing Slump, Not a Crisis | B
Gas Prices Can Rev Up Spending Again | W
China
Exports, the Engine of China’s Slowing Economy, Are Sputtering | W
How China Has Added to Its Influence Over the iPhone | N
China Puts Cement Shoes on Metals: Elements by David Fickling | B
Europe
Fast EU Deal on Fiscal Rules Would Cheer Markets, Gentiloni Says | B
Geopolitics & trade
EU plans to cap Russian gas price as Putin warns West of winter freeze | R
The chips are down: Putin scrambles for high-tech parts as his arsenal goes up in smoke | PO
Russia Destroyed Mariupol. Now It’s Using It for Propaganda. | W
Technology
The Supply Chain Broke. Robots Are Supposed to Help Fix It. | N
Corporate finance
China Evergrande’s Stake in Regional Bank Sold for $1.05 Billion | W
Crypto
'Blockchain is bunk': Crypto critics find their voice
El Salvador's Bitcoin Experiment a Failure | National Review
Climate
California Gov. Newsom says prolonged extreme heat is a wake-up call on climate change | C
EXCLUSIVE: Former Greenpeace Founder Patrick Moore Says Climate Change Based on False Narratives
The energy historian who says rapid decarbonization is a fantasy | LA Times
September 07 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Can TINAC Survive A Global Recession?
Prospects for a global recession have risen in the wake of recent geopolitical developments. Global economic indicators have been showing signs of weakness too. … If the global economy sinks into a recession, will the US economy follow suit, as typically has happened in the past? Not necessarily this time. We still expect no more than a “rolling recession” that hits different sectors at different times without an economy-wide downturn. … Our rationale for recommending overweighting US stocks in global portfolios still holds—i.e., there is no alternative country (TINAC). ... And: Joe clears up some confusion about Q2 earnings.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 6.
Markets
U.S. Stocks End Lower After Labor Day Weekend | W
U.S. Dollar Strength Lifts Americans’ Relative Spending Power | W
U.S. bonds: U.S. Treasury yields rise following strong economic data | C
US
Conflicting Surveys Paint Mixed Picture of Services Providers | W
California Power Grid Faces Biggest Blackout Risk of Year as Heat Wave Intensifies | W
Manchin Plan to Fast-Track Energy Projects Headed for Showdown | B
Europe
Energy crisis: Why has Russia cut off gas supplies to Europe? | C
The Dirty Job of Rationing Electricity and Gas: Elements by Javier Blas | B
Germany to keep two nuclear plants available as a backup, burn coal | C
China
A Slowing China Helps Rein In Inflation Around the World | W
China's ESG Fund Investing Boom Follows Xi's Political Agenda | B
Geopolitics & trade
Ukraine's Zelenskiy 'rings' NYSE bell, seeks $400 bln in foreign investment | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: How airlines give you internet access at 35,000 feet — and why it still needs a lot of work | NN
Beyond markets
People who recently caught Covid can wait to get omicron booster | C
Covid omicron booster shots should better protect against infection, serious illness | C
U.S. Plans Shift to Annual Covid Shots as New Boosters Roll Out | W
September 06 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Back To The Old Normal?
Fed Chair Powell has put the kibosh on financial markets’ wishful thinking that the Fed will start easing monetary policy next year. How will the Fed—and investors—know when it has achieved optimal tightening, with monetary policy restrictive enough to tame inflation but not enough to touch off a recession? “Immaculate disinflation” has proven elusive in the past, but we think it’s possible today. A federal funds rate of 3.00%-4.00% might be the sweet spot, harkening back to the “Old Normal” before the 2008 financial crisis. … Also: Indicators suggest the broad economy is growing this quarter, though certain sectors aren’t. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Candy” (+ + +).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 29.
Markets
Stocks Could Have a Messy Fall. Time to Embrace the Risks. | BR
Emerging Market Bonds May Be Buying Opportunity | BR
The digital yuan offers China a way to dodge the dollar | E
U.S. Dollar Strength Lifts Americans’ Relative Spending Power | W
Oil producer group OPEC+ surprises energy markets with a small production cut | C
Gasoline prices are expected to continue to fall after Labor Day and some states could see below $3 | C
Central banks
The Fed Isn’t Moving the Stock Market, or the Price of Credit | FO
US I
The Labor Shortage Will Get Worse and May Last for Decades | BR
UPS, Chipotle, and Other Stocks That Could Thrive as the Labor Shortage Lingers | BR
Yes, the unemployment rate rose. Here's why that's good news | NN
Now Is the Most Rewarding Time to Switch Jobs in Years | W
US II
American states are now Petri dishes of polarization | E
Biden’s Student-Debt-Forgiveness Plan May Cost Up to $1 Trillion, Challenging Deficit Goals| W
Affordable-Housing Projects Derailed as Developers Struggle for Financing | W
Europe
Russia’s Nord Stream Pipeline Closure Lands Economic Blow Against Europe | W
Europe scrambles to protect citizens from sky-high energy prices | E
Macron: France, Germany to provide each other with gas, electricity, to weather crisis | R
Germany keeps two nuclear reactors on standby to weather gas crisis | R
Gazprom: off-line Nord Stream compressor station now deemed hazardous | R
Italy’s election and the war against corruption | E
China
China’s Economic Slump Bodes Ill for Birth Numbers | W
A Slowing China Helps Rein In Inflation Around the World | W
China Blinked on Public-Company Audits. It Won’t Happen Twice. | BR
Industries & companies
Materials: Column: European smelter closures fracture aluminum pricing | R
Retail: Buy Target Stock. The Retailer’s Problems Won’t Last Forever. | BR
Corporate finance
CVS to buy home health giant Signify Health for about $8 billion | C
Volkswagen to List Porsche in One of Biggest IPOs in Years | W
Beyond markets
Can We Save the Planet and Still Eat Meat?
September 03 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China, Earnings & FedNow
China’s government is mobilizing to shore up the country’s struggling, debt-laden economy. New initiatives will facilitate home-buying, guarantee the debt of select private developers, make low-interest loans to banks, and provide financial backing for infrastructure projects. More may be needed. … Industry analysts still expect S&P 500 companies to log respectable earnings growth this year and next despite having lowered their sights for many. Jackie examines how and why estimates have been changing for various sectors and industries. … And better late than never: FedNow brings the instantaneous financial transactions that other countries enjoy to the US.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 29.
Markets
Major stock averages slide for third week, Nasdaq posts six-day losing streak | C
Bond Yields Fall on Higher August Unemployment | W
Energy
Russia scraps gas pipeline reopening, stoking European fuel fears | R
Russia to Keep Nord Stream Pipeline Shut, Citing Mechanical Problems | W
Factbox: Europe's alternatives if Russia shuts off gas supply | R
US I
August Jobs Report Shows Labor Market Has Cooled But Remains Solid | W
Wage Gains Ease as More Americans Join the Labor Force | W
The Americans Who Never Went Back to Work After the Pandemic | W
How 'quiet quitting' became the next phase of the Great Resignation | C
More home sellers drop their asking price as the housing market cools | C
Rising Mortgage Rates Complicate Decision on Buying Versus Renting | W
US II
Opinion: This is what will prevent stagflation from hitting the US economy | NN
1970s inflation: Historian Niall Ferguson has a warning for investors | C
Recession or Not, There Will Be Pain | Morningstar
Traveling for Labor Day? Expect Busier Airports, More Traffic Than Last Year | W
China
China’s Economy Won’t Overtake the U.S., Some Now Predict | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. approves potential $1.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan amid China tensions | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: Your Flight Is Canceled. See What Each Airline Is Supposed to Offer You. | W
Autos: Ford’s U.S. Sales Rose 27% in August on Strong EV Demand | W
Materials: Column: European smelter closures fracture aluminium pricing | R
Materials: This Remote Mine Could Foretell the Future of America’s Electric Car Industry | N
Utilities: Jackson Water Crisis Forces Cities to Confront Their Own Aging Infrastructure | W
Corporate finance
CVS Is in Advanced Talks to Buy Signify Health for Around $8 Billion | W
Greek yogurt maker Chobani pulls IPO amid listing slowdown | R
Technology
Latest U.S. Chip Curbs Deliver Setback to China’s AI Ambitions | W
Beyond markets
NASA Poised for Second Artemis Launch Attempt Saturday | W
White House Seeks $47.1 Billion to Fight Covid and Monkeypox, Aid Ukraine | W
September 02 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China, Earnings & FedNow
China’s government is mobilizing to shore up the country’s struggling, debt-laden economy. New initiatives will facilitate home-buying, guarantee the debt of select private developers, make low-interest loans to banks, and provide financial backing for infrastructure projects. More may be needed. … Industry analysts still expect S&P 500 companies to log respectable earnings growth this year and next despite having lowered their sights for many. Jackie examines how and why estimates have been changing for various sectors and industries. … And better late than never: FedNow brings the instantaneous financial transactions that other countries enjoy to the US.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 29.
Markets
Dow, S&P 500 close higher to snap four-day losing streak and begin September | C
S&P 500 snaps four-session losing streak with payrolls on deck | R
Hopes for Fed Pivot Have Faded, Sapping Stocks’ Momentum | W
Man Group Warns of Contagion to European Firms From EM Defaults | B
As the U.S. Dollar Surges, American Buyers Splurge on European Homes | W
Gasoline Prices Extend Declines Into Labor Day Weekend | W
Central banks
US Jobs Data Have Potential to Push Fed Toward Third Jumbo Hike | B
Big Japan Short Redux Outside Tokyo Even as Locals Bet on BOJ | B
New Dallas Fed Chief Puts Inflation Fight on Front Burner | W
US
U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level in Two Months | W
Independent Voters Now Tilting Toward Democrats in Midterm Elections, WSJ Poll Finds | W
Mortgage Rates Rise to 5.66% | W
China
Chengdu locks down 21.2 million people as Chinese cities battle Covid-19 | C
In China, Some Cities Edge Into Covid-19 Lockdowns Ahead of Party Congress | W
Chinese Property Giants See Fortunes Diverge During Housing Crisis | B
Tech Companies Slowly Shift Production Away From China | N
Japan
Steel Price Hikes to Impact Japan’s Manufacturers as Costs Surge | B
Geopolitics & trade
U.N. says China may have committed crimes against humanity in Xinjiang | R
Xinjiang Rights Report Ratchets Up Standoff Between the U.S. and China | W
Ukraine Says Russia Is Using Cargo Ships to Ferry Weapons to the Black Sea | W
IAEA experts 'not going anywhere' after reaching Ukraine nuclear plant | R
Nvidia says U.S. government allows A.I. chip development in China | C
Industries & companies
Airlines: Service Is Slow. Luggage Is AWOL. Companies Struggle With an Influx of New Hires. | W
Autos: GM’s Driverless-Car Unit Recalls Software Used in Some Robotaxis | W
Energy: Amazon took solar rooftops offline last year after fires, explosions | C
Materials: Aluminum Buyer Novelis Excludes Russian Metal in Key Supply Deal | B
Materials: Column: European smelter closures fracture aluminium pricing | R
Media: GameStop meme stock movie 'Dumb Money' in the works with Seth Rogen, Pete Davidson | C
Corporate finance
Exxon, Shell sell California oil assets for $4 billion to IKAV | R
Beyond markets
CDC Panel Backs Moderna (MRNA), Pfizer (PFE) Covid Omicron Vaccine Boosters | B
Covid Boosters Targeting Omicron Backed by CDC Advisers | W
Reading and Math Scores Plummeted During Pandemic, New Data Show | W
September 01 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China, Earnings & FedNow
China’s government is mobilizing to shore up the country’s struggling, debt-laden economy. New initiatives will facilitate home-buying, guarantee the debt of select private developers, make low-interest loans to banks, and provide financial backing for infrastructure projects. More may be needed. … Industry analysts still expect S&P 500 companies to log respectable earnings growth this year and next despite having lowered their sights for many. Jackie examines how and why estimates have been changing for various sectors and industries. … And better late than never: FedNow brings the instantaneous financial transactions that other countries enjoy to the US.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 29.
Markets
Dow, S&P 500 fall for a fourth day, major averages end August with losses | C
Famed Investor Jeremy Grantham Warns of Super Bubble in Stocks as Rally Falters | B
Central banks
Fed’s instant payment service ‘FedNow’ set to launch by July 2023 | yahoo.com
Energy
Russia deepens Europe's energy squeeze with new gas halt | R
US
California Dreamin’ —A No-Choice Nightmare That Benefits China | The Heritage Foundation
IRS is not hiring an 'army' of auditors, what's really happening | C
U.S. Justice Dept says Trump team may have moved classified papers amid probe | R
Emerging
China’s dim prospects turn disastrous | The Hill (ampproject.org)
China’s Economic Woes Drag On With Factory Disruptions, Property Slump | W
China’s heat wave is creating havoc for electric vehicle drivers | MIT Technology Review
India’s GDP Jumps as Consumer Spending Revives, Covid Fears Ebb | W
Industries & companies
Media: Disney Explores Membership Program Like Amazon Prime to Offer Discounts and Perks | W
Retail: Walmart-owned Sam's Club raises annual membership fee for first time in 9 years | C
Restaurants: Starbucks Is Rethinking Almost Everything, Including How to Make Frappuccinos | W
Technology
NASA orders five more astronaut missions from Musk's SpaceX in $1.4 billion deal | R
Beyond markets
U.S. FDA green lights Omicron-targeted COVID boosters ahead of revaccination campaign | R
Anthony Fauci Warns of a Bad Flu Season Brewing as He Nears Office Exit | B
August 31 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Earnings Matter
Will the rolling recession—which we believe is occurring now in the US economy—steamroll corporate earnings growth? Our economic outlook suggests that earnings growth could turn negative, but not by much and not for long. … We think August’s M-PMI will be telling, suggesting that both this index and S&P 500 earnings growth are getting closer to bottoming. … And: Melissa looks under the hood of the auto manufacturing industry, still challenged globally by parts-supply problems and still short on inventory. … Also: A look at various factors driving rising EV sales.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 29.
Markets
Column: RIP Great Moderation, hello Great Volatility | R
Column: Diverging U.S. corn and soybean yields would be a rare outcome | R
Central banks
Powell Abandons Soft Landing Goal as He Seeks ‘Growth Recession’ | B
Fed's Mester sees benchmark rate above 4% and no cuts at least through 2023 | C
Fed’s John Williams Says Rates Will Stay High for a While | W
Fed Gets New Path to Go Big as Job Openings, Confidence Surprise | B
Federal Reserve Quantitative Tightening Fallout Should Be Limited | B
Energy
Russia temporarily halts gas flows to Europe via Nord Stream 1 | C
Russia deepens Europe's energy squeeze with new gas halt | R
Analysis: Full gas storage no fix for Europe's winter energy crunch | R
Japan’s Kishida Says He Wants to Reduce Reliance on Nuclear Power as Much as Possible | W
Column: Saudi jawboning up crude oil prices contrasts with soft physical market | R
US
U.S. Job Openings Rose in July as Hiring Accelerated | W
Home-Price Growth Decelerated in June | W
Mortgage demand falls even further, as rates shoot back up to July highs | C
US Life Expectancy Falls as Covid Takes Their Toll on The Population | B
Women Not Having Kids Get Richer Than Men | B
Trump Mar-a-Lago raid: DOJ opposes special master request | C
Europe
Euro zone inflation hits another record of 9.1% as food and energy prices soar | C
Inflation Tops 9% in Eurozone, Piling Pressure on Policy Makers | W
China
China is set to convene a historic meeting on Oct. 16. Here's what to expect | C
China's True Elite
Geopolitics & trade
Biden Still Undecided on Chinese Tariffs, Commerce Secretary Says | W
Industries & companies
Communications services: Social-Media Firms Would Have to Consider Children’s Health Under Bill Passed by California Legislature | W
Corporate finance I
Bosch $200 million investment fuel cells South Carolina | C
Toyota says it will invest extra $2.5 billion in North Carolina plant | C
Toyota to Put Additional Billions of Dollars Into EV Batteries | W
Corporate finance II
Bed Bath & Beyond announces store closures, layoffs and new financing in push to fix struggling business | C
Buyback Tax Will Distort Capital Markets & Hurt Smaller Companies | NR
Technology
Autonomous delivery company Gatik wins new pilot program with Pitney Bowes in Dallas | C
Beyond markets
NASA to Try Artemis I Moon Launch Again on Saturday | W
Ukraine’s Overstretched Psychiatric Hospitals Face Wave of Traumatized Soldiers | W
August 30 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Anatomy Of A Rolling Recession
In an eight-minute talk at Jackson Hole last week, the Fed chair squawked like a true hawk and obliterated $1.2 trillion in S&P 500 market capitalization. He said bringing inflation down will be painful. He didn’t say how painful. … We don’t see an “official” recession, but a “growth recession” that rolls through economic sectors in succession while still allowing real GDP to grow overall, albeit slowly. … In fact, such a rolling recession is likely underway already. We look at how vulnerable areas of the economy are holding up.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 29.
Markets
Dow closes 100 points lower as sell-off continues, Treasury yields surge | C
Stocks End Lower, Yields Rise After Powell’s Hawkish Remarks | W
Panic Button Is Nowhere in Sight as Memory of 7th S&P 500 Market Rout Fades | B
Central banks
Fed’s QT to Hit ‘Full Stride’ With Central Bank Shrinking $9 Trillion Portfolio | B
At Jackson Hole, World’s Central Bankers Gauge Economic Risks in Covid’s Wake | W
Fed’s instant payment service ‘FedNow’ set to launch by July 2023 | yahoo
White House Gives Fed Leeway on Interest Rates After Warren Critique | B
US
64% of consumers worry about shrinkflation. Here's what to watch for | C
Fannie Mae says fixed mortgage rates could fall to 4.5% next year | C
These Are the Most Expensive US Cities for Renters in August | B
Fewer Americans live paycheck to paycheck as inflation starts to ease | C
Hunter Biden, Border Crossings and Covid Policies Face New Scrutiny if GOP Wins House | W
Trump's home search unearths material possibly covered by attorney-client privilege, prosecutors say | R
China
'It felt like my insides were crying': China COVID curbs hit youth mental health | R
Geopolitics & trade
Ukraine War Is Depleting U.S. Ammunition Stockpiles, Sparking Pentagon Concern | W
Russia Confounds the West by Recapturing Its Oil Riches | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Honda, LG Energy Solution to build $4.4 billion battery plant in U.S. | C
Autos: How Amazon is giving Rivian an edge in the EV industry | C
Autos: China’s heat wave is creating havoc for electric vehicle drivers | MIT
Climate
Greenland ice loss will raise sea levels by nearly one foot: study | C
Beyond markets
Biden administration to stop sending free at-home Covid-19 tests Friday | C
NASA’s Artemis Launch Postponed After Engine Procedure Fails on Moon Rocket | W
Why Some Americans Are Still Isolating From Covid-19 | W
August 29 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Powell’s Latest Pivot Won’t Be His Last
Keeping track of whether Fed Chair Powell is dovish or hawkish is making us dizzy. His latest clues—dropped at last week’s Jackson Hole conference—reversed the dovish impression he’d left in July that caused stocks to rally. So stocks pivoted southward last week. … We anticipate Powell’s next pivot and potentially encouraging inflation news. … Might BEA’s upcoming H1 GDP revisions reveal that the economy grew after all, making the “technical recession” illusory? We wouldn’t be surprised. We project 1.5% GDP growth during H2 and 2.5% next year. … Also: Q2 data on S&P 500 revenues and profits show new record highs for both. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Blackbird.”
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 22.
Markets
Stocks jilted as central banks promise tough love | R
Investors Ramp Up Bets Against Stock Market as Summer Rally Fizzles | W
Dollar gains as investors brace for higher rates | R
Oil mixed as OPEC supply cut prospect offsets demand fears | R
Central banks
Powell Says Fed Must Show Resolve in Fighting Inflation | W
Powell warns of 'some pain' ahead as Fed fights to lower inflation | C
US
A Different Take on the U.S. Economy: Maybe It Isn’t Really Shrinking | W
Want a Lower Mortgage Rate? Take Someone Else’s Loan | W
American cities want rent control to rein in housing costs | E
Everyone’s a Landlord—Small-Time Investors Snap Up Out-of-State Properties | W
The rent crisis on Main Street just took a turn for the worse | C
High Grocery Bills Pose Liability for Democrats as Midterms Approach | W
Europe
This Income-Focused Money Manager Sees Bargains in Europe. ‘Mass Fear Is an Opportunity.’ | BR
China
How China should handle its bad loans to poor countries | E
Faced with an overseas debt crisis, will China change its ways? | E
Geopolitics & trade
What is at stake at Ukraine’s Zaporizhia nuclear plant | E
Are sanctions on Russia working? | E
Industries & companies
Aerospace: NASA’s Artemis Launch Gives Boeing Chance to Restore Its Space Credibility | W
Airlines: Airlines Keep Flight Cuts, Other Curbs as Industry Woes Drag On | W
Autos: EV makers face cash squeeze amid soaring battery, production costs | C
Materials: Alcoa Has a Plan for Zero Emissions. Buy the Stock While It’s a Bargain. | BR
Retail: Inventory Pileup, Uneasy Shoppers Put Retailers in Jeopardy | W
Climate
Beyond Drought: The Coming Water Shortage Is a Threat From Main Street to Wall Street | BR
Beyond markets
NASA's Artemis 1 mission: What you should know about SLS, Orion | C
Why has polio returned to London and New York? | E
August 27 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Industrials, Russia & Robots
A heat wave and drought are prompting China to close some industrial plants in hard hit regions to preserve electricity for air conditioning. In Europe, some industrial plant owners are closing shop because surging electricity prices are battering the bottom line. Look for supply chain problems to ensue. The Eurozone’s August PMI took a hit. … A study out of Yale University contends Western sanctions are taking a large toll on Russia’s economy. We take a look. … North American companies bought more robots in Q1 than ever before. Here are some new ways robots are making companies more efficient today and a peek at what scientists are working on for the future. Pizza anyone?
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 22.
Markets
Dow Falls More Than 1,000 Points After Powell Speech | W
Wall Street ends in a hole after Powell's Wyoming speech | R
Stock Bulls’ Swagger Gets Deflated as Powell Delivers a Warning | B
Bond Yields Inch Higher After Powell Says Fed Will Hold the Line on Inflation | W
U.S. bonds: U.S. Treasury yields are higher after Powell speech | C
Global
World Economy Needs Policy Reset to Revitalize Growth, BIS Says | B
Central banks I
Powell warns of 'some pain' ahead as Fed fights to lower inflation | C
Powell Says Fed Must Show Resolve in Fighting Inflation | W
Powell’s New Guidance: Higher Rates for Longer to Beat US Inflation | B
Powell's Jackson Hole Speech Erases $78 Billion From Richest Americans' Fortunes | B
Fed Officials Welcome July Inflation Data, But Not Ready to Say Prices Have Peaked | W
Column: A crisis too far? Central bank safety net compromised :Mike Dolan | R
Central banks II
ECB Lacking Consensus for Jumbo Rate Hike Some Officials Want | B
Some ECB Officials Want Quantitative-Tightening Talks in 2022 | B
ECB’s Knot Says Up to Three-Quarter-Point Hike Needed Next Month | B
Can Central Banks Maintain Their Autonomy? | W
US
U.S. Consumer Spending Inched Forward in July, With Inflation Historically High | W
Inflation Eased in July, According to the Fed’s Preferred Measure | W
Brookings: Long Covid keeps millions of Americans out of workforce | C
Biden Describes Trump’s Governing Philosophy as ‘Like Semi-Fascism’ | W
New York Fuel Supply Is So Low It Triggered White House Warning | B
China
China’s Scorching Heat and Hydropower Missteps Test Nation’s Power Grid | W
Industries & companies
Consumer: There’s a Carbon Dioxide Shortage, and Food and Drink Makers are Scrambling | W
Energy: EXCLUSIVE Exxon to sell Arkansas shale gas assets to Flywheel Energy | R
Pharma: Moderna Sues Pfizer and BioNTech, Alleging mRNA Patent Infringement | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. and China Reach Agreement on Chinese Company Audits | W
Zelenskiy says danger remains after nuclear plant resumes power supply | R
U.N. Set to Inspect Ukraine Nuclear Plant Early Next Week | W
Beyond markets
Monkeypox: CDC cautiously optimistic outbreak might be slowing | C
August 26 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Industrials, Russia & Robots
A heat wave and drought are prompting China to close some industrial plants in hard hit regions to preserve electricity for air conditioning. In Europe, some industrial plant owners are closing shop because surging electricity prices are battering the bottom line. Look for supply chain problems to ensue. The Eurozone’s August PMI took a hit. … A study out of Yale University contends Western sanctions are taking a large toll on Russia’s economy. We take a look. … North American companies bought more robots in Q1 than ever before. Here are some new ways robots are making companies more efficient today and a peek at what scientists are working on for the future. Pizza anyone?
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 22.
Markets
Dow closes 300 points higher, extends rally to second day ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech | C
China Economic Stimulus Lifts Mood Ahead of Powell Speech: Markets Wrap | B
Treasury Yields Rise on Bet That Recovery Will Last Longer | W
Central banks
Fed Policy Revamp Turns Two in Jackson Hole. It’s Not Aged Well | B
Fed’s Esther George Says It Has to Get Interest Rates Higher to Slow Down Demand | B
Fed Can’t Blink After Being ‘Asleep at the Wheel,’ El-Erian Says | B
Powell isn't likely to tell investors what they want to hear Friday | C
US I
U.S. GDP Fell Less Than Previously Thought in Second Quarter | W
US Corporate Profits Soar With Margins at Widest Since 1950 | B
US Jobless Claims August 2022: Fall for Second Week in Sign of Labor Strength | B
US economy may have actually grown in the first half of 2022 | Quartz
US II
US Mortgage Rates Soar to 5.55%, Renewing Squeeze on Homebuyers | B
Mortgage Rates Rise to Two-Month High at 5.55% | W
Teacher Shortage 2022: Why US Schools Flush With Cash Can't Keep Up | B
Biden Student-Loan Forgiveness Raises Inflation, Budget Risks | W
China
China’s New Economic Efforts Fall Short, Economists Say | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.S., China Near Deal to Allow Audit Inspection of N.Y.-Listed Chinese Companies | W
Taiwan Proposes Big Jump in Military Spending Amid Chinese Pressure | W
Power Outage in Southern Ukraine Raises Tensions Over Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant | W
Industries & companies
Retail: How Whole Foods has changed in the five years since Amazon took over | C
Climate
California bans the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035 | C
France Considers Taxing Private Jet Use in Fight Against Climate Change | W
Amazon strikes green hydrogen deal with fuel cell maker Plug Power | C
Beyond markets
Baby Formula Shortage: A Deadly Bacteria and Abbott’s (ABT) Missteps | B
August 25 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Industrials, Russia & Robots
A heat wave and drought are prompting China to close some industrial plants in hard hit regions to preserve electricity for air conditioning. In Europe, some industrial plant owners are closing shop because surging electricity prices are battering the bottom line. Look for supply chain problems to ensue. The Eurozone’s August PMI took a hit. … A study out of Yale University contends Western sanctions are taking a large toll on Russia’s economy. We take a look. … North American companies bought more robots in Q1 than ever before. Here are some new ways robots are making companies more efficient today and a peek at what scientists are working on for the future. Pizza anyone?
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 22.
Markets
Invesco Sees ‘Rude Awakening’ With Oil, Food Set to Spike Soon | B
Dollar eases from near two-decade peak as Jackson Hole looms | R
Column: Dollar's historic surge may be music to Fed's ears: McGeever | R
Oil prices rise on possible OPEC supply cuts | R
Central banks
Jackson Hole: Lockstep Markets Primed for All-or-Nothing Sweepstakes on Powell | B
Jerome Powell’s Dilemma: What if the Drivers of Inflation Are Here to Stay? | W
Morgan Stanley’s Wilson and JPMorgan’s Michele Warn About QT | B
US
Biden’s Student Loan Forgiveness Plan to Cancel Up to $20,000 in Debt for Millions | W
Will Biden's Student Loan Relief Add to Inflation? Here's What Economists Say | B
The Surprise in a Faltering Economy: Laid-Off Workers Quickly Find Jobs | W
'Ghost gun' regulations go into effect after judges reject challenges | C
China
China Rolls Out Aid to Help Power Firms and Save Rice Harvest | W
U.S. Entertainment Industry Hits Wall in China | W
Europe
Italy Elections: Mario Draghi Warns Next Leader Not to Play With Protectionism | B
Industries & companies
Wireless: Phone Companies Want to Be Your Home-Internet Provider—and Vice Versa | W
Climate
Inflation Reduction Act’s Real Climate Impact Is a Decade Away | W
Arizona Needs to Cut 300,000 Olympic Pools’ Worth of Water. Here Is Who Will Be Hit the Hardest. | W
August 24 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Will Inflation Persist?
If inflation is peaking, definitive proof could make all the difference to the near-term direction of the stock market. It could also affect how hard the Fed pumps the monetary brakes and what that does to the economy. Our happy outlook features inflation peaking, tightening ending sooner rather than later, and the economy slowly growing. … Recent data releases provide peeks into upcoming inflation readings—and some signs that it is peaking. … Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act seems almost satirically named: The Act is more about climate than inflation, think-tanks say it will hardly move the inflation needle, and Melissa found several aspects to be downright inflationary.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 22.
Markets
Stocks End Slightly Lower Amid Rate Uncertainty | W
S&P 500 seen a little higher by end of 2022 -strategists | R
China’s Yuan Slides to Two-Year Low as Economy Stumbles, Dollar Soars | W
Central banks
Fed's Kashkari says his biggest fear is inflation will be more persistent | R
Global
Global Economies Flash Warning of Sharp Slowdown | W
Energy
Can’t Pay Utility Bills? 20 Million US Homes Behind on Payments, Facing Shutoffs | B
Endless Demand Spurs U.S. Natural-Gas Prices to Shale-Era Highs | W
How Much Is Power in Europe? It’s Now Equal to Oil at $1,000 a Barrel | B
US
What a housing recession means for homeowners, buyers, sellers | C
Biden's decision on student loan forgiveness could come tomorrow | C
Judge orders Trump to give details about Mar-a-Lago warrant lawsuit | C
China
Column: China's weak crude imports and pariah purchases ease global market | R
China Reopens to Foreign Students For First Time After Covid Outbreak | B
Geopolitics & trade
After Six Months of War in Ukraine, Momentum Tilts Against Russia | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: Thousands of Flights Canceled, Delayed as Bad Weather Disrupts Air Travel | W
Consumer: Amazon seller Packable lays off employees, begins liquidating | C
Tech: Apple to Cut New iPhone 14 Production Lag Between India and China | W
Corporate finance
Intel, Brookfield Sign $30 Billion Deal to Finance Chip Factories | W
Beyond markets
The 30-Year-Old Spending $1 Billion to Save Crypto | W
Moderna Asks FDA to OK Updated Covid-19 Shot | W
August 23 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Raging Debate
Today, we examine stock market sentiment—where it’s been this year and why, as well as where it might be headed. … The bulls had a good two-month run, for a host of reasons we discuss, but it might be ending as they go on the defensive for a while for a host of other reasons. … And: QE lifted the Fed’s securities holdings and the stock market followed suit during the bull market years. But does that necessarily mean the opposite will happen when QT starts to unwind those holdings in September? The bears think so, but we see reasons to differ.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 22.
Markets
Dow falls 600 points, heads for worst day since June as the market's summer rally flails | C
Wall Street tumbles on fears of aggressive Fed | R
US
U.S. business borrowing for equipment rises 2% in July - ELFA | R
US Housing Market: Jump in New Apartment Construction May Ease Pressure on Rents | B
Cheap Homes? House Prices Are Being Slashed In Former Pandemic Boomtowns | B
Companies Are Cutting Back on Maternity and Paternity Leave | W
Trump PAC paid lawyers almost $1 million amid Georgia, New York probes | C
Europe
Europe braces for more cuts in Russian oil and gas exports | R
Geopolitics & trade
Crimea, Once a Bastion of Russian Power, Now Reveals Its Weakness | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Ford Stock Falls After $1.7 Billion Verdict in Fatal Rollover Case | W
Autos: Ford to eliminate 3,000 jobs in an effort to cut costs | C
Communications services: Should we break up Facebook to save it? | The Hill
Tech: Apple self repair service expands to MacBooks starting Tuesday | C
Corporate finance
Where have the unicorns gone? The IPO window has slammed shut | NN
IPO Market Faces Worst Year in Two Decades. ‘Really Hard Pill to Swallow.’ | W
Pandemic
Fauci, face of U.S. COVID response, to step down from government posts | R
Pfizer asks FDA to authorize Covid booster shots that target omicron BA.5 for people ages 12 and older | C
Polio Vaccines Are Urged in New York as Once-Defeated Virus Lurks | W
Beyond markets
Why Tom Brady and other stale celebs keep pretending to retire | P
August 22 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Searching For Godot
The economic slowdown so far this year is not the game-changing “official” recession so widely feared. Waiting and waiting for this Godot of a recession is muting economic activity, but also inhibiting excesses. That’s why we expect any recession that does show up—a scenario we give 35% odds—to be mild and roll through the economy gradually by sector. We see a slow-growth scenario as the most likely outlook (60% odds) and an inflationary boom the least (5%). … Also: We turn our spotlight on what a rolling recession might look like and how September might treat the stock market.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 15.
Markets
Stocks Are No Longer a Sure Thing. Where to Invest Now. | BR
The February Effect: Dividend Hikes Spike in the Shortest Month | BR
How an Emerging Market Stock Fund Stays on Top, With Less Risk | BR
Central banks
Shrinking Deficits Cushion Fed’s Retreat From Markets | W
Chinese Banks Cut Rates to Spur Economic Growth | W
China trims lending rates one week after surprise cuts in key rates | C
Energy
European gas prices surge as Russia announces Nord Stream 1 shutdown | C
Europe’s Natural-Gas Crunch Sparks Global Battle for Tankers | W
Energy Projects Sought Across the U.S. Face Local Hurdles | W
US I
Recession Is Already Here for Many Small Businesses | BR
Your Steak Is Getting Cheaper at the Supermarket | W
Americans are concerned student loan forgiveness will worsen inflation | C
US II
Will Donald Trump run again? | E
Donald Trump’s hold on the Republican Party is unquestionable | E
Merrick Garland is not naive about political violence | E
Ex-White House Aide Kash Patel Presses View Trump Broadly Declassified Documents | W
More IRS Audits Are on the Way for Taxpayers. How to Respond if You're Targeted. | BR
China
China’s economy is beset by problems | E
China's Alibaba and Tencent focus on cost cuts amid slowing growth | C
How China's Covid policies lead to hampered supply chains, higher inflation | C
Mao-loving websites are in a grey zone between propaganda and dissent | E
Japan
Prices are rising in Japan, but not wages | E
Industries & companies
Autos: Elon Musk says Tesla will raise price of FSD by 25% in September | C
Financials: PNC Financial Services Has Big Ambitions—and a 3.4% Dividend Yield | BR
Media: AMC shares tank more than 30% as Regal Cinemas owner warns of potential bankruptcy | C
Logistics: Railroad Regulator Turns Up Heat on Industry to Fix Shipping Delays | W
Manufacturing: Pandemic Bolsters China’s Position as the World’s Manufacturer | W
Geopolitics & trade
Korea and U.S. begin largest military drills amid N. Korea backlash | C
Russia launches murder investigation after car bomb kills daughter of key Putin ally | C
Ukraine’s Zelensky Warns Against Trial of Prisoners Captured at Azovstal Steel Plant | W
Climate
Droughts Hurt World’s Largest Economies | W
Bill Gates Is Ecolab’s Largest Shareholder. He Just Scooped Up More Shares. | BR
August 20 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumers, Russia & The Metaverse
With gasoline prices down in July, consumers had more money to spend on discretionary purchases, and retailers of most kinds benefited. Jackie taps Target’s Q2 results for consumer-spending trends and takeaways . … Also: Waging war in Ukraine has cost the Russian economy a great deal, but Q2 GDP contracted much less than economists expected, buoyed by the high prices that Russia’s energy exports fetched. … And: The Metaverse is hopping with diverse events—from concerts and celebrity-hosted parties to fashion shows and fine art sales. And everyone’s invited.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 15.
Markets
Stocks Slide as Short-Sellers Cash In on Fedspeak: Markets Wrap | B
Column: Stocks rebound shows the devil in the retail | R
US I
If the Economy Is Shrinking, Why Is Everything Going Gangbusters? | B
'The Godfather' Insight: Oil Prices Have Been Driving Markets All Along | B
Jobless Rate Drops to or Below 3% in Almost Half of US States | B
America's small businesses are running out of workers | NN
What Is Quiet Quitting? Is It a Good Idea? Pros and Cons of Latest TikTok Trend | B
US II
Inflation peaking? 10 common consumer items where prices are falling | C
Gen Xers are cutting spending, continue to save for retirement, study says | C
Can't Afford Rent? College Students Tap Parents, Buy RVs for Housing | B
Opinion | California Needs More Housing. Unions Might Stand in the Way. | N
US III
U.S. Treasury disputes finding that new IRS funding would increase middle-class taxes | R
Five ways the Inflation Reduction Act will reduce business owners’ taxes | The Hill
Geopolitics & trade
Russia to Halt Nord Stream Gas Flows to Europe, Citing Pipeline Maintenance | W
Ukraine’s Southern Forces Wage a Slow Campaign to Wear the Russians Down | W
China’s Xi Considers Visiting Central Asia, Potential Meeting With Putin Next Month | W
Industries & companies
Materials: Column: Power is the big new problem for industrial metals supply | R
Media: Regal Owner Cineworld Nears Bankruptcy as Theater Comeback Lags | W
Beyond markets
Northern Lights Will Be Visible in Parts of Mainland U.S. This Week | W
Monkeypox Virus Can Stay on Common Household Items, Surfaces, CDC Says | B
It Now Costs $300,000 to Raise a Child | W
August 19 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumers, Russia & The Metaverse
With gasoline prices down in July, consumers had more money to spend on discretionary purchases, and retailers of most kinds benefited. Jackie taps Target’s Q2 results for consumer-spending trends and takeaways . … Also: Waging war in Ukraine has cost the Russian economy a great deal, but Q2 GDP contracted much less than economists expected, buoyed by the high prices that Russia’s energy exports fetched. … And: The Metaverse is hopping with diverse events—from concerts and celebrity-hosted parties to fashion shows and fine art sales. And everyone’s invited.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 15.
Markets
Wall Street Bets the Fed Is Bluffing in High-Stakes Inflation Game | W
Shares choppy, U.S. yields fall as investors digest Fed minutes | R
Central banks
Fed’s Bullard Leans Toward Favoring 0.75-Percentage-Point September Rate Rise | W
US
U.S. Home Sales Dropped in July for Sixth Straight Month | W
Home sales fell nearly 6% in July as housing market slides into a recession | C
Why the Rent Inflation Is So Darn High | MSN
Jobless claims edge lower as Fed looks to cool labor market | C
Judge Says He Will Unseal Parts of Affidavit That Led to Search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago | W
China
China’s Scorching Heat Leads to Power Cuts, Factory Disruptions | W
Geopolitics & trade
China, U.S. Trade Climate Barbs as Ties Fray | W
North Korea Resumes Weapons Activity With Two Cruise-Missile Launches | W
Industries & companies
Financials: Bank Stocks Make a Comeback | W
Media: Americans Spent More Time Streaming Than Watching Cable TV in July—a First | W
Retail: Home Depot and Lowe's cite strong demand, but softening could be ahead | C
August 18 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumers, Russia & The Metaverse
With gasoline prices down in July, consumers had more money to spend on discretionary purchases, and retailers of most kinds benefited. Jackie taps Target’s Q2 results for consumer-spending trends and takeaways . … Also: Waging war in Ukraine has cost the Russian economy a great deal, but Q2 GDP contracted much less than economists expected, buoyed by the high prices that Russia’s energy exports fetched. … And: The Metaverse is hopping with diverse events—from concerts and celebrity-hosted parties to fashion shows and fine art sales. And everyone’s invited.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 15.
Markets
Stocks End Lower After Fed Minutes, More Earnings | W
Oil prices ease as Russia output increases | R
Column: 'Peak inflation' ambiguous for dollar | R
Central banks
Fed Officials See Need for Continued Interest-Rate Increases, but Less Certainty Over Destination | W
Fed Minutes July 2022 FOMC Meeting: Smaller Hikes Ahead to Assess Past Moves | B
US
U.S. Retail Spending Held Steady in July | W
The Inflation Reduction Act does more than clean energy and EV tax credits | Vox
Inflation Reduction Act Shows Far Left’s Extremism and Elitism | The Heritage Foundation
Not one Republican stood up for climate, jobs or lower costs | The Hill
Biden's IRS Army will declare war on political enemies | P
Biden Labor Department Seeks to Redefine Independent Contractors | CJ
Industries & companies
Manufacturing: Makers of Heating, Cooling Systems Expect Climate Bill to Boost Sales | W
Geopolitics & trade
US and Taiwan Begin Formal Negotiations on Trade Initiative | B
China to Join Russia Military Exercises as U.S. Rivals Deepen Ties | W
Climate
Feds call for water cutbacks as Colorado River is in 23-year drought | C
Beyond markets
Covid’s Harmful Effects on the Brain Reverberate Years Later | B
U.S. CDC plans to focus on public health response after pandemic failings | R
August 17 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: More On The Bulls Vs Bears Debate
Is the stock market rally since June 16 a rally within the bear market or the start of a new bull market? The answer hinges on the economic outlook. We’re in the bull camp, believing that inflation is peaking, Fed tightening is nearly over, and a recession won’t result; bears may believe the opposite. … Analysts have been cutting their estimates for earnings but not revenues, so expected profit margins have been falling. That suggests they see no recession, just more difficulty passing fast-rising costs on to customers. … Also: Peeks at the MegaCap-8’s rally impacts on the S&P 500, Senator Schumer’s wrong-headed anti-buyback stance, and alternative measures of inflation.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 15.
Markets
Dow closes 200 points higher on Tuesday for fifth day of gains, buoyed by Walmart and Home Depot | C
Stocks End Mostly Higher With Retail Earnings in Focus | W
Five Not-Quite-Impossible Things the Market Believes | W
As Oil Falls Below $90, Where Do Prices Go From Here? | N
Flush With Oil Profits, Saudi Arabia Pours $7.5 Billion Into U.S. Stocks From Amazon to Microsoft | W
Central banks
Fed Warns Banks Jumping Into Crypto to Do Legal Homework First | B
US politics
US Inflation Reduction Act Is a Climate Bill by Another Name | B
Bill Gates, Joe Manchin, and How Biden's Inflation Reduction Act Almost Failed | B
Biden signs inflation act, hands pen to Manchin | R
Biden Signs $437B Tax-Climate Law In Win for Democrats Ahead of Midterms | B
Biden signs Inflation Reduction Act into law, setting 15% minimum corporate tax rate | C
Inflation Reduction Act to cap costs for Medicare patients on insulin | C
Five Things That Biden’s Climate Bill Will Change for Automakers | B
US
Homebuyers are backing out of more deals as recession fears linger | C
Home Building Fell Sharply in July as Costs Increased | W
Consumers Pay More for Less, Boosting Walmart and Home Depot | W
If the Job Market Is So Good, Why Is Gig Work Thriving? | N
Opinion | Gen X Is Kind of, Sort of, Not Really the Boss | N
Schools Are Looking in Unusual Places to Deal With Teacher Shortage | W
States Expand Sales-Tax Holidays as Americans Feel Price Increases | W
Europe
Heat Wave Intensifies Energy Crisis in Europe | W
Germany to Keep Last Three Nuclear-Power Plants Running in Policy U-Turn | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. Approves Nearly All Tech Exports to China, Data Shows | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: American Airlines agrees to purchase 20 supersonic jets - CNN
Retail: Walmart.com drew higher-income shoppers looking to buy food | R
Tech: Cloud hangs over U.S. chipmakers on worries data center growth could slow | R
Tech: Apple and Meta headsets could face a big challenge: Sticker shock | C
Corporate finance
Why the 1 Percent Buyback Tax Doesn’t Scare Investors | N
Beyond markets
WHO vows nothing 'ridiculous' as public submits ideas to rename monkeypox | R
Polio circulating locally in NYC area, poses risk to unvaccinated, CDC says | C
August 16 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Why Are Oil Prices Falling?
Wondering what brought the price of gasoline and other petroleum products back down toward earth in recent weeks? Our data show it’s not Biden’s release of crude oil reserves but the effects of previously soaring prices—which depressed demand and sparked production—combined with China’s economic slowdown. … Speaking of which: Just when we thought the much-anticipated recession would be a no-show like Godot, he was spotted in China and maybe New York too. Might the US be in for a “rolling recession” à la the 1980s?
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 15.
Markets
Stocks Extend Winning Streak | W
Wall Street climbs, adding to recent gains as megacaps rise | R
Investors Are Betting Yet Again That Inflation Will Cool | W
Gold Holds Decline as Dollar Reigns Amid Concerns Over Slowdown | B
Central banks
Federal Reserve Can Fight Recession With Lessons from Its Past | B
Goldman sees a 'feasible but difficult path' for the Fed to defeat inflation without a recession | C
Federal Reserve Finalizes Guidelines for Access to Its Payment Systems | W
US
U.S. is in housing recession, homebuilders say | C
Stores, suppliers fight over price hikes as inflation squeezes shoppers | C
Biden's created our bad new normal, and he's loving it | P
What Democrats' call for Social Security reform means for benefits | C
China
China’s Growth Slowed Across All Fronts in July, Prompting Unexpected Rate Cut | W
China Needs More Stimulus to Boost Economy, PBOC Paper Says | B
China pares back holdings of U.S. Treasuries for 7th month | R
Geopolitics & trade
Ukraine calls on world to 'show strength' after shelling near nuclear plant | R
What a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan Would Mean for Global Business | W
China Restarts Military Drills in Response to Latest U.S. Lawmakers’ Visit to Taiwan | W
NYSE delistings signal Beijing may be willing to compromise on U.S. audit dispute -analysts | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: This is a great time to be an airline. It's the worst time to be a passenger | NN
Airlines: Why Is Airline Travel So Miserable? Blame Florida | W
Autos: SoftBank-backed Ola Electric wants to launch India-built EV in 2024 | C
Pharma: Newly-launched U.S. drugs head toward record-high prices in 2022 | R
Retail: Walmart enters streaming deal with Paramount+ in race with Amazon | R
Tech: Apple tells employees to come in 3 times a week starting September | C
Corporate finance
Stock Buybacks and Dividends Become a $1.5 Trillion Political Target | N
Dan Loeb’s Third Point Calls for Disney to Spin Off ESPN, Refresh Board | W
Climate
South, Midwest will see worst increases in extreme heat by 2053 | C
The Basic Math Problem that Undoes Global Warming Hysteria | American Thinker
Beyond markets
For Rent: 327 Square Foot Apartment With 5 Rooms—Thanks to Robot Furniture | W
August 15 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Waiting For Godot
Today, we sift through the recent economic data and recent Fed head chatter for clues to the critical question: Now that recession fears have abated for 2022, what are the odds of one in 2023? … We give 60% odds to a slow-growth scenario, with GDP growing 1.5% in H2-2022 and 2.5% in 2023; 35% odds to a recession next year precipitated by the Fed’s inflation battle; and 5% odds to a boom scenario. … Critical to the recession question is whether inflation is peaking. We think so but need to see more evidence to be sure. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Elvis” (+ + +).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 8.
Markets
Earnings Season Is Over. The Stock Market’s Gains Won’t Come Easy Now. | BR
Market Rebound Draws Wary Eye From Some Investors | W
Wall Street, Like the Climate Bill, Bets on Both Green Energy and Fossil Fuels | W
Short-sellers are struggling despite a bad year for stocks | E
These Funds Hold Just 1 Bond. Why They're Revolutionary. | BR
Climate-plus bill
The Climate Bill Is About to Reshape Global Energy. Here’s How to Invest. | BR
Inflation Reduction Act: House passes massive climate, tax and health bill | C
America’s climate-plus spending bill is flawed but essential | E
Drug-Price Rules for Seniors Change With Passage of Climate and Health Bill | W
US
This was a good week for inflation numbers, but whether it can last is the big question | C
Consumers Are Still Spending on Fun | W
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improved in August From Early Summer Low | W
Rent Prices Are Climbing Fast. What’s Happening—and How Much More It Could Rise. | BR
Labor Shortage Is Vexing Challenge for U.S. Economy | W
China
China’s mortgage boycotts are a symptom of a broader crisis | E
An Interview With Allianz Global’s China Expert Virginie Maisonneuve | BR
Industries & companies
Pharma: Buy Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk Stock. Their Weight-Loss Drugs—and Their Shares—Could Take Off. | BR
Technology
Faster Internet Is Coming to America—as Soon as the Government Knows Where to Build It | W
Geopolitics & trade I
China’s huge exercises around Taiwan were a rehearsal, not a signal, says Oriana Skylar Mastro | E
Xi Jinping may attack Taiwan to secure his legacy, warn Admiral Lee Hsi-min and Eric Lee | E
How to prevent a war between America and China over Taiwan | E
Geopolitics & trade II
Thanks to Vladimir Putin, Germany has woken up | E
Why isn’t Russia blocking GPS in Ukraine? | E
Ukraine Accuses Russia of Using Nuclear Plant to Blackmail West | W
First ship carrying Ukraine wheat under UN deal docks in Turkey | R
August 13 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Health Care, Earnings & Uncle Sam
Today, Jackie takes the pulse of the S&P 500 Health Care sector, examining the M&A activity that has spurred it to outperform the market ytd and what the Inflation Reduction Act will mean for drug makers. … Also: A look at the 2023 earnings growth prospects of various S&P 500 sectors and industries. … And: How the Inflation Reduction Act aims to buy a greener US. … Plus: What will the newly passed CHIPS and Science Act spend $280 billion on? Lots more than chips.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 8.
Markets
Dow closes up 400 points, S&P 500 rises for fourth straight week as investors warm to cooler inflation | C
Have Stocks Bottomed? | Morningstar
Japanese Yen Attracts Hedge Funds as a Speculator’s Currency | W
Central banks
Fed's Barkin says rate increases need to continue until inflation holds at 2% | C
Global
Global Population Is About to Hit 8 Billion—and Some Argue It Is Near Its Peak | W
US Politics--breaking news
Trump's Mar-a-Lago, a security 'nightmare' that housed classified documents | R
FBI Recovered 11 Sets of Classified Documents in Trump Search, Inventory Shows | W
Trump search warrant cites statutes that call for prison sentences | C
US
This was a good week for inflation numbers, but whether it can last is the big question | C
Best Way to Measure Inflation Rates? The Mysterious Price of Mayonnaise | B
Inflation Reduction Act’s Needless Health-Care Provisions | city-journal.org
Can I Buy a House? Market is Cooling Off With Fewer Bidding Wars Across US | B
U.S. Housing Affordability in June Was the Worst Since 1989 | W
U.S. Schools Put Covid-19 Safety Measures in Rearview, Dividing Some Parents | W
Geopolitics & trade
Ukraine Readies Plans to Evacuate Civilians Amid Fighting Near Nuclear Plant | W
China’s Xi Jinping Plans to Meet With Biden in First Foreign Trip in Nearly Three Years | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: U.S. allows Delta to temporarily cut some New York, Washington flights | R
Airlines: Even airline employees are having trouble finding a seat home from Europe this summer | C
Fitness: Peloton slashing 780 jobs, closing stores and hiking prices in push to turn profit | C
Technology
China’s Computer Chips Are Down | W
Beyond markets
Monkeypox Virus: WHO Asks Public to Submit New Name Ideas in Online Portal | B
August 12 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Health Care, Earnings & Uncle Sam
Today, Jackie takes the pulse of the S&P 500 Health Care sector, examining the M&A activity that has spurred it to outperform the market ytd and what the Inflation Reduction Act will mean for drug makers. … Also: A look at the 2023 earnings growth prospects of various S&P 500 sectors and industries. … And: How the Inflation Reduction Act aims to buy a greener US. … Plus: What will the newly passed CHIPS and Science Act spend $280 billion on? Lots more than chips.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 8.
Markets
Stock Rally Fades as Investors Weigh Next Steps on Inflation | W
The Market’s Peak Inflation Story Fights the Fed | W
OPEC Cuts Oil-Demand Forecasts as Economic Growth Slows | W
US
Column: Deep U.S. curve inversion hastens the recession it predicts | R
U.S. Supplier Inflation Logs Slowest Pace Since Last Fall | W
Gas prices are falling — Here's why it's happening and whether it can continue | C
Inflation Cooled in July, Welcome News for White House and Fed | N
U.S. Home Prices Jumped to Record High in Second Quarter | W
US Mortgage Rates Swing Back Up, Hitting 5.22% in Volatile Market | B
Inflation, Soaring Rent Prices From Miami to Las Vegas Has Americans Struggling | B
China
The Bursting Chinese Housing Bubble Compounds Beijing’s Economic Woes | W
Industries & companies
Energy: How high energy prices are making things better this summer | The Hill
Media: Disney is raising prices, but this time, don't blame inflation | C
Geopolitics & trade
Xi Sought to Send Message to Biden on Taiwan: Now Is No Time for a Crisis | W
EU Proposes Significant Concession to Iran to Revive Nuclear Deal | W
Beyond markets
New Langya virus infects 35 people in China
Covid: CDC eases guidance as U.S. has more tools to fight the virus | C
U.S. CDC no longer recommends students quarantine for COVID-19 exposure | R
August 10 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Earnings & Productivity
Why are industry analysts now slashing the estimates they had raised throughout the year’s first half (even as the economy slowed)? … Why has productivity growth dropped to its weakest y/y rate since 1947? Is it simply returning to its pre-pandemic trendline? … Why has household formation suddenly rebounded? … How did landlords get so lucky as to find themselves in a “Golden Age”? … Today, we explain these economic anomalies, aided by recent data releases. … Also: With the economy in a growth recession and forward earnings starting to flatten, the valuation-led stock market rally might sputter for a while.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 8.
Markets
Tech Stocks Lead Market Lower as Investors Await Inflation Data | W
Strategists Under the Same Roof Clash on Stock Market Before US CPI Data | B
U.S. Lawmakers Look to Digital Dollar to Compete With China | W
US I
How This Economic Moment Rewrites the Rules | N
Rapid Wage Growth Keeps Pressure on U.S. Inflation | W
Eggs Prices in US Jump 47% as Food Inflation Soars, IRI Says | B
U.S. Productivity Falls for Second Straight Quarter | W
With 87,000 new agents, here's who the IRS may target for audits | C
US II
Congress needs to take its role in inflation seriously | The Hill
Biden needs to stop stock trading in Congress | MSNBC
FBI Search of Trump Property Prompted by Concerns Over Sensitive Documents | W
Geopolitics & trade
War between China and Taiwan would create global chaos | Washington Times
War Game Finds U.S., Taiwan Can Defend Against a Chinese Invasion | W
U.S. Solar Shipments Are Hit by Import Ban on China’s Xinjiang Region | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Ford increasing price of electric F-150 Lightning | C
Technology
Chip Makers Expect Demand Slowdown to Expand Beyond PCs, Smartphones | W
Beyond markets
FDA Adopts Policy to Stretch Monkeypox Vaccine Supplies | W
U.S. allows alternate monkeypox vaccine injection method to boost supply | R
August 09 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Around The World
Zooming out to assess big-picture data for major global economies, we conclude that Germany and China look most vulnerable to a recession next year. The US wouldn’t be immune to a global recession, but certain factors help insulate it. These include heavy capital inflows resulting from foreign investors’—correct—perception that US financial markets offer the safest harbor there is. Overweighting the US in global portfolios remains prudent. … Also: Germany’s economy faces duress this winter as heating the country becomes a challenge, and China’s economy is suffering at the hands of homegrown problems related to housing, lockdowns, and demographics.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 8.
Markets
S&P 500 and Nasdaq slip to start the week as Nvidia warning puts brakes on market rally | C
Wall Street muted on mixed inflation messages | R
U.S. Lawmakers Look to Digital Dollar to Compete With China | W
Central banks
Consumers expect inflation to slow down, a big win for the Fed | C
Energy
What Germans Know About Nuclear Power | W
US
Economist: Inflation Reduction Act won't curb inflation short-term | C
The Houdinis of Carried Interest | W
What carried interest is, and how it benefits high-income taxpayers | C
The Inflation Reduction Act would double IRS agents and audits — but superrich aren't real targets | P
Reconciliation bill includes nearly $80 billion for IRS funding | C
Opinion | Bill Gates: A Clean Energy Future is in the Hands of Congress | N
Hiring Gets Easier for Some Employers Despite Hot Job Market | W
The inflation problem nobody is talking about | Washington Examiner
Geopolitics & trade
Biden 'concerned' as China extends military drills around Taiwan | R
Apple tells suppliers to use 'Taiwan, China' or 'Chinese Taipei' to appease Beijing
Opinion | Chinese Ambassador Qin Gang: Pelosi's Taiwan visit was irresponsible | WP
Attacks at Ukraine Nuclear Plant Are Suicidal, U.N. Chief Warns | W
What’s the plan to counter Russia’s energy squeeze? | The Hill
Industries & companies
Aerospace: Boeing Dreamliner deliveries to resume in the 'coming days,' FAA says | C
Consumer: Tyson Foods Says Consumers Shifting Away From Higher-Priced Beef | W
Technology
Baidu Secures China’s First Ever Permits for Commercial Fully Driverless Robotaxi Services
100 Vehicles Catch fire in Delhi’s Electric Vehicle Charging Station – India
Hundreds of new mines required to meet 2030 battery metals demand | IEA report
Corporate finance
Flush with cash, Pfizer buys Global Blood Therapeutics in $5.4 bln deal | R
Beyond markets
Central Planning Fails Just As Much When Conservatives Are the Planners | FO
August 08 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: No Recession In Labor Market
July’s surprisingly strong payroll employment report points to a strong July reading for the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators. This is good news for the economy, bad news for the fixed-income market, and mixed news for the stock market. While it squashes near-term recession fears, it ups prospective Fed hawkishness. … Within the labor market, there is unprecedented churn as people quit in record numbers for higher-paying positions elsewhere. Over half the workers in July’s employment report were hired over the past year! But consumer prices are spiraling upward along with wages, so even job-jumpers aren’t seeing much wage growth after adjusting for inflation
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 1.
Markets
Investors Brace for More Market Volatility as Earnings Estimates Slump | W
How to Protect Yourself From Another Stock Market Plunge | BR
Central banks
Fed Governor Bowman sees 'similarly sized' rate hikes ahead after three-quarter point moves | C
The Fed Is About to Ramp Up Balance-Sheet Shrinkage. It May Get Dicey. | BR
Why We Expect the Fed to Cut Interest Rates in 2023 | Morningstar
Rate Hikes Are Not the Right Answer to “Wage-Price Persistence” by James K. Galbraith | PS
What the 1980s Can Teach Us About Interest Rates and Inflation | N
Global
Weak Growth, Tight Job Markets Are a Global Phenomenon | W
The silver linings of a recession | E
Food Price Inflation Imposing Heavy Burden on Poorer Countries | W
US
Job Boom Means No Recession and Boosts Pressure for Rate Hikes | BR
Has the Recession Started? The Labor Market Says No. | BR
A shortfall in immigration has become an economic problem for America | E
Democrats’ big climate, health care and tax package clears major Senate hurdle | C
Europe
The EU agrees on an energy diet to fight Russian gas cuts | E
France’s nuclear plants are going down for repairs | E
Italy’s next government may be more nationalist than Europe likes | E
China
China’s War Games Showcase New Tools to Intimidate Taiwan | W
Column: China’s U.S. ag imports soar to new highs in 2022, but volumes vary | R
Geopolitics & trade
Chinese and Taiwanese warships shadow each other as drills due to end | R
After agreeing to let Ukraine export grain, Russia rockets its port | E
Industries & companies
Industrials: Buy GE Stock as a Breakup Looms | BR
Media: Advertising Slowdown Spreads Beyond Tech Giants to Hit TV Networks, Publishers | W
Media: Netflix may be missing an opportunity in horror movies | C
Pharma: Republicans block cap on insulin costs for many Americans from Democratic deal | C
Real Estate: Blackstone’s Giant Real Estate Fund Faces a Test | BR
Restaurants: Consumers are cutting back on restaurant spending, but CEOs say not all chains are affected | C
Tech: Direct-to-Consumer Sales Are Fueling Supply-Chain Tech Growth | W
Tech: The era of big-tech exceptionalism may be over | E
Corporate finance
CVS Plans to Bid for Signify Health | W
Beyond markets
America’s response to monkeypox has been underwhelming | E
August 06 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Emerging Markets, Oil Refiners & Nuclear Power Plants
Today, Jackie takes us on a quick world tour focusing on emerging economies. Many are ailing, but a few offer a safe haven from geopolitical storms. So does the US with its strong dollar, huge economy, and relatively calm body politic. … Also: Oil refiners had a stellar Q2 operating at near maximum capacity to meet surging demand. The industry is on track for another year of eye-popping revenues and earnings growth. … And in the disruptive technologies department, we highlight the potential of SMRs—small modular (nuclear) reactors.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 1.
Markets
S&P 500, Nasdaq fall Friday, but notch weekly gains after blowout July jobs report | C
YOLO Stock Market Bulls Say Wake Me When Fed Tightening Starts to Bite | B
U.S. Treasury yields: nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, Fed, recession | C
Central banks
Larry Summers Warns Fed on 1970s-Style Mistake With CPI Set to Slow | B
US I
The U.S. economy has yet to face its biggest recession challenge | C
July Jobs Report: U.S. Added 528,000 New Jobs as Unemployment Rate Fell to 3.5% | W
Here's where the jobs are for July 2022 — in one chart | C
Workers in these two industries are the only ones coming out ahead right now | NN
US Consumer Borrowing Jumps by More Than $40 Billion, Second-Most Ever | B
US II
Yes, It's a Strong Jobs Report, but July Probably Overstates the Case | Morningstar
Jobs Report Bolsters Biden’s Message, but Inflation Makes Economy a Hard Sell | W
Democrats Trade One Bad Tax Increase for Another | W
Lower Gas Prices Threatened by Fuel Makers’ Limitations | W
Geopolitics & trade
China Steps Up Military, Diplomatic Warnings Over Taiwan | W
China halts military, climate dialogue with U.S. over Pelosi Taiwan trip | R
Industries & companies
Autos: U.S. automakers say 70% of EV models would not qualify for tax credit under Senate bill | R
Retail: The Hot New Trend for Gucci and Chanel: Middle America | W
Corporate finance
Amazon to acquire iRobot, maker of Roomba vacuums | C
Pfizer in Advanced Talks to Buy Global Blood Therapeutics for About $5 Billion | W
Beyond markets
Health Authorities Issue New Advice for Avoiding Monkeypox | W
DeepMind’s AlphaFold could be the future of science and AI | Vox
August 05 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Emerging Markets, Oil Refiners & Nuclear Power Plants
Today, Jackie takes us on a quick world tour focusing on emerging economies. Many are ailing, but a few offer a safe haven from geopolitical storms. So does the US with its strong dollar, huge economy, and relatively calm body politic. … Also: Oil refiners had a stellar Q2 operating at near maximum capacity to meet surging demand. The industry is on track for another year of eye-popping revenues and earnings growth. … And in the disruptive technologies department, we highlight the potential of SMRs—small modular (nuclear) reactors.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 1.
Markets
Stocks Close Mixed as Earnings Roll In | W
What this 'play the recovery' strategy says about hot bond demand | C
Oil languishes on recession fears; unconcerned stocks climb on | R
US
U.S. Jobless Claims Rose Last Week to Near High for Year | W
Job growth was likely strong in July, but it could slow soon | C
Mortgage Rates Drop Below 5% for First Time Since April | W
The inflation and price increases that broke us, from groceries to gas | Vox
Cost of Democrats’ Corporate-Tax Increase Skews to Wealthy, Reaches Middle Class | W
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema signs off on Democrats' big agenda bill, paving the way for Senate passage | C
Democrats Revise Climate Package to Strike Deal With Sen. Kyrsten Sinema | W
Geopolitics & trade
China’s Drills Around Taiwan Give Hint About Its Strategy | W
U.S. Delays Minuteman III Missile Test Amid Tensions Over Taiwan | W
Biden orders aircraft carrier to stay in South China Sea, but delays ICBM test | C
Three grain ships set to leave Ukraine; NATO chief says Russia must not win | R
Winter in Europe May Be Springtime for Putin | W
North Korea 'paves the way' for more nuclear tests, U.N. report says | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: Airlines cancel, reroute flights during Chinese military drills near Taiwan | R
Materials: The world's top coal trader is cashing in on the Ukraine war — Quartz (qz.com)
Corporate finance
Companies From Google to Pepsi Are Boosting Capital Spending | W
Beyond markets
What Remote Work Debate? They’ve Been Back at the Office for a While. | N
U.S. declares monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency | R
Great Barrier Reef areas show highest coral cover seen in 36 years | C
August 04 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: US Earnings & European Gas
Industry analysts finally have begun reining in their high earnings, revenues, and profit margin expectations. Their moves suggest that analysts collectively expect inflation to moderate but don’t anticipate a recession. … Also: Europe may face a cold, dark winter—literally and economically—if Russia doesn’t restore the natural gas flows to Europe that the EU depends on. Melissa presents a timeline of Russia’s gas-depriving moves and the responses from government and gas futures markets. … And: Soaring energy prices are dampening European consumer and business sentiment, boding ill for GDP growth and corporate earnings prospects. The only EMU MSCI sector with unscathed earnings growth expectations is Energy.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 1.
Markets
Stocks End Higher on Earnings, Services Data | W
Energy
Gas Prices Have Fallen for 50 Straight Days, Approach $4 a Gallon | W
Russian Oil Cap Push Faces Doubts From Energy, Finance Industry | W
Nuclear Power Plants Could Stay Open, Says Germany | W
Central banks
Federal Reserve rate hikes could be worse than inflation for the economy | MSNBC
Fed Officials Signal Additional Rate Rises Warranted to Slow Economy | W
US
Consumer debt tops $16 trillion as inflation fuels credit card surge | NN
Tech companies, banks overstaffed, while airlines, hotels need workers | C
Cost of Democrats’ Corporate-Tax Increase Skews to Wealthy, Reaches Middle Class | W
Manchin-Schumer Bill Gets CBO Nod for $102 Billion Deficit Cut | B
Manchin Deal Tosses $30 Billion Lifeline to US Nuclear | B
China
China Real Estate Market: Mortgage Boycott May Spur Multi-Billion Dollar Rescue | B
China’s Property Crisis Threatens to Drag Down Steel Industry | yahoo.com
Geopolitics & trade
Pelosi lauds Taiwan, says China's fury cannot stop visits by world leaders | R
As Pelosi Leaves Taiwan, China’s Military Looms Larger | W
To understand China's Pelosi rage, consider a Civil War analogy | Washington Examiner
Pelosi's trip to Taiwan makes matters worse for U.S. and China relations | C
Big Tech Is the West’s Surprise Weapon in Competition With Russia, China | W
With eye on Russia, U.S. Senate backs Finland and Sweden's joining NATO | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Chip makers have a message for car makers: Your turn to pay | R
Autos: EV Maker Lucid Cuts Production Outlook in Half | W
Media: Netflix Is Scrambling to Learn the Ad Business It Long Disdained | W
Retail: Walmart Lays Off Hundreds of Corporate Workers | W
Climate
US West, Already in Drought, Is Facing Dwindling Snowpacks | B
Technology
Battery Streak Aims to Change How Electric Vehicles Run | dot.LA
Beyond markets
Richard Clarida Returns to Pimco After Fed Cleared Him in Trading Probe | B
U.S. regulators defend requiring more data on monkeypox drug | R
August 03 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: US Earnings & European Gas
Industry analysts finally have begun reining in their high earnings, revenues, and profit margin expectations. Their moves suggest that analysts collectively expect inflation to moderate but don’t anticipate a recession. … Also: Europe may face a cold, dark winter—literally and economically—if Russia doesn’t restore the natural gas flows to Europe that the EU depends on. Melissa presents a timeline of Russia’s gas-depriving moves and the responses from government and gas futures markets. … And: Soaring energy prices are dampening European consumer and business sentiment, boding ill for GDP growth and corporate earnings prospects. The only EMU MSCI sector with unscathed earnings growth expectations is Energy.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 1.
Markets
OPEC+ Considers Modest Oil-Production Increase, Output Freeze, Say Delegates | W
Japan's Yen Recovery Cut Short After Biggest Four-Day Advance Since 2020 | B
Central banks
Fed's Mary Daly says 'our work is far from done' in raising rates | C
The Federal Reserve Just Can’t Stop Bond Traders’ Wishful Thinking | B
US
Higher Mortgage Rates Haven't Slowed Home Price Growth – Yet | Mortgages and Advice | US News
The 'recession cure' divides economists | NN
Automakers press U.S. Senator Manchin for changes to EV tax credit proposal | R
Rent prices are soaring in these 5 metros. What to know before moving | C
China
China ratchets up military and economic pressure on Taiwan as Pelosi begins her visit | C
Europe
Europe’s Coal-Buying Frenzy Means Windfall for Producers | W
Geopolitics & trade
Russia accuses U.S. of direct Ukraine war role, grain ship anchors off Turkish coast | R
Ukraine Scrambles to Shift Its Grain Before Storage Runs Out | W
Pelosi arrives in Taiwan vowing U.S. commitment; China enraged | R
Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan Trip Will Encourage China's Gray-Zone Tactics | B
Industries & companies
Consumer discretionary: Three more Amazon warehouses added to OSHA safety investigation | C
Retail: Snack, Deodorant Makers Target Cost-Conscious Shoppers With New Brands and Sizes | W
August 02 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Valuation, M-PMI & Consumers
Yesterday’s M-PMI report jibed with our view that the US economy is in a growth recession with some sources of inflation abating—which is bullish for stocks. … Since we think the S&P 500 might have bottomed on June 16, we’re raising our target ranges for its price index and forward P/E multiple while keeping our earnings expectations unchanged. … Also: The recent consumer spending and saving data paint a challenging picture: The “inflation tax” has sapped consumers’ purchasing power, causing less saving and more borrowing to support essential spending. Consumer sentiment hasn’t been so negative in nine years. Nevertheless, consumers should continue to pivot from buying goods to buying services.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on August 1.
Markets
Stocks Edge Lower to Start Month | W
Commodities
Oil prices slip as weak manufacturing data stokes recession fears | R
Coal consumption is expected to return to 2013′s record levels: IEA | C
US I
Number of Americans employed and hours worked falls in July, data show | R
U.S. Factory Growth Slowed in July on Decline in Orders | W
Home prices cooled at record pace in June, according to housing data firm | C
Dollar-Store Dinners and Vats of Shampoo Help Families Cope With Inflation | W
US II
The answer to high energy prices isn’t new taxes, but new supplies | The Hill
Gen Z Knows What It Wants From Employers. And Employers Want Them. | N
Fleeing families will leave New York without a future | P
Geopolitics & trade
Biden says drone strike killed al-Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri, warns terrorists we will ‘take you out’ | C
'Glimmer of hope' as Ukraine grain ship leaves Odesa port | R
Biden, Putin strike conciliatory tones as nuclear arms talks start at U.N. | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Ford stock posts best month since the Great Recession | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon says carbon emissions rose 18% in 2021 as Covid drove upsurge | C
Biotech: Amgen Fights IRS Over $10.7 Billion Tax Bill | W
Corporate finance
Estée Lauder in Talks to Buy Luxury Brand Tom Ford | W
Technology
S.Korea develops nanotech tattoo as health monitoring device | R
Beyond markets
Monkeypox: California, New York, Illinois declare outbreak an emergency | C
August 01 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Switching Planets: Investors Now From Venus, Analysts From Mars
We’ve been making the case that the latest bear market might have bottomed on June 16. So far, so good. ... Just a few weeks back, industry analysts’ earnings estimates suggested they were oblivious to investors’ recession fears, and we quipped that the former was from Venus, the latter from Mars. Now it’s investors interpreting news with a rosy bias as analysts shave their estimates. … The stock market now appears to be discounting investors’ recent hopes of peak inflation, peak Fed hawkishness, and a mild recession. … Also: We examine Powell’s suggestion that monetary policy is nearly restrictive. … And: The Bond Vigilantes are from Venus now too.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 25.
Markets
The Power of Positive Thinking Returns to Markets | W
Individual Investors Ramp Up Bets on Tech Stocks | W
Central banks
How the Fed’s Response to Inflation Now Can Avert a 1970s-Style Crisis | BR
Neel Kashkari: Rising inflation larger threat than potential recession | C
Commodities
Oil prices slip ahead of OPEC+ meeting | R
U.S. Eyes Sanctions Against Global Network It Believes Is Shipping Iranian Oil | W
The World Food Shortage Is Getting Worse. These Companies Have Solutions. | BR
Farm Giants Expect Continued Food-Supply Problems Despite Ukraine Grain Deal | W
Falling Food Prices Ease Upward Pressure on Global Inflation | W
US I
Lower Inflation Likely Requires Higher Unemployment; How High Is the Question | W
Consumers Have Powered Through the Pandemic and Inflation—Until Now | W
U.S. Consumers are ‘Trading Down.’ How to Play It With Options. | BR
US II
How Pessimistic Americans Could Worry the Economy Into Recession | BR
Recession another victim of Democrats' rewriting of the English language | P
Bidenflation has become Bidencession | Washington Examiner
Manchin touts inflation reduction bill, says 'I'm not getting involved' in upcoming elections | C
Federal emergency savings proposals may also boost retirement funding | C
Senate Tax-and-Climate Plan Hinges on Streamlining Energy Projects | W
Emerging
China’s Stumbling Manufacturing, Property Sectors Show Long Road to Recovery | W
The Putin Show | E
MBS: despot in the desert | E
Geopolitics & trade
The Ukraine war may ring the knell for nuclear arms control | E
Pelosi Travels With Delegation to Asia Amid Chinese Warnings Not to Visit Taiwan | W
Technology
Shenzhen accelerates China's driverless car dreams | R
The U.S. Is Investing Big in Chips. So Is the Rest of the World. | W
Beyond markets
How the Covid-19 Pandemic Changed Americans’ Health for the Worse | W
July 30 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Earnings, Chips & AI
Investors cheered the Fed’s no-surprises announcement of another 75bps hike in the federal funds rate yesterday. Moreover, Q2 earnings reports have been confirming our soft-landing scenario for the economy, and S&P 500 companies’ earnings are expected to hold up respectably this year and next. … But Q2 reports revealed pain points for certain industries—e.g., retailers that cater to lower-income consumers felt the brunt of inflation-strained consumer budgets. … Semiconductor makers on Q2 calls addressed worries about customers’ inventory buildups. … And: What won’t AI be transforming? Today, we look at how AI is facilitating new drug development.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 25.
Markets
Stocks rally for a third day to cap a winning week, major averages post best month since 2020 | C
Shock July Stock Rally Was a Monster the Fed May Regret Seeing | B
Fight Runaway Inflation With I Bonds | W
Central banks
Fed’s Bostic Says Economy Probably Isn’t in Recession, More Rate Rises Needed | W
US I
If the Economy Is Shaky, Why Are Company Profits Still Strong? | N
White House goes on offense to argue that the U.S. is not in a recession | C
U.S. Economy Transitions to Slower Growth as Inflation Weighs on Consumers | W
Consumer Spending Grew Much Faster in June | W
Inflation figure that the Fed follows closely hits highest level since January 1982 | C
‘Inflation Reduction Act’ Has Little Inflation Help, Study Says | B
Mortgage rates fall sharply after negative GDP report and Fed's latest hike | C
US II
Yellen’s Global Tax Plan Gets No Love From Manchin-Schumer Deal | B
House Democrats push for Biden’s billionaire minimum income tax | C
U.S. Senate bill could be death blow for Biden anti-drilling pledge | R
China
China Evergrande Breaks Silence on Debt-Restructuring Plan | W
Europe
Eurozone Recovery Picks Up Speed but Ukraine War Threatens Deep Contractions | W
Europe’s Energy Policy Problems Are Self-Inflicted | reason.com
Geopolitics & trade
How HIMARS could change the Ukraine-Russia war | C
U.S., Japan to cooperate on semiconductors as part of new economic dialogue | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: Airplane-Parts Shortage Threatens More Disruptions to Air Travel | W
Energy: Exxon, Chevron, Shell Report Record Profits on High Energy Prices | W
Pharma: Senate reconciliation has 'once in a generation’ prescription reform | C
Beyond markets
U.S. Reaches $1.74 Billion Deal With Moderna for Updated Covid-19 Shots | W
July 29 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Earnings, Chips & AI
Investors cheered the Fed’s no-surprises announcement of another 75bps hike in the federal funds rate yesterday. Moreover, Q2 earnings reports have been confirming our soft-landing scenario for the economy, and S&P 500 companies’ earnings are expected to hold up respectably this year and next. … But Q2 reports revealed pain points for certain industries—e.g., retailers that cater to lower-income consumers felt the brunt of inflation-strained consumer budgets. … Semiconductor makers on Q2 calls addressed worries about customers’ inventory buildups. … And: What won’t AI be transforming? Today, we look at how AI is facilitating new drug development.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 25.
Central banks
The U.S. economy is shrinking. The Fed's rate hikes may have only just begun to bite | R
BOJ policymakers debated chance of Fed-driven U.S. recession | R
US I
GDP Report May Have Showed a Decline, but It's Not a Recession | Morningstar
U.S. GDP Fell at 0.9% Annual Rate in Second Quarter; Recession Fears Loom Over Economy | W
Recession or Not, the Recovery Has Ended | W
Mortgage Rates Fall to 5.3%, Continuing Volatile Stretch | W
Inflation-exhausted Americans: Let's just go out for steak | NN
Big cities are where the jobs are — but millennials aren’t moving | Vox
The Crisis Facing Nursing Homes, Assisted Living and Home Care for America’s Elderly | PO
US II
Manchin's climate turnaround: Climate groups react | C
Manchin, Schumer Revived Climate Bill in Secret Talks, Now Seek Democrats’ Support | W
China competitiveness and chip bill passes House, goes to Biden | C
Europe
How the German Economic Machine Broke Down | W
Japan
Japan's factory output zooms as China eases COVID curbs | R
Emerging
Analysis: S.Korea's sudden property slump tests world's most indebted consumers | R
They Flocked to China for Boom Times. Now They’re Thinking Twice. | N
Jack Ma Plans to Cede Control of Ant Group | W
Geopolitics & trade
Don't 'play with fire' over Taiwan, China's Xi warns in call with Biden | R
July 28 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Fed, Earnings, Chips & AI
Investors cheered the Fed’s no-surprises announcement of another 75bps hike in the federal funds rate yesterday. Moreover, Q2 earnings reports have been confirming our soft-landing scenario for the economy, and S&P 500 companies’ earnings are expected to hold up respectably this year and next. … But Q2 reports revealed pain points for certain industries—e.g., retailers that cater to lower-income consumers felt the brunt of inflation-strained consumer budgets. … Semiconductor makers on Q2 calls addressed worries about customers’ inventory buildups. … And: What won’t AI be transforming? Today, we look at how AI is facilitating new drug development.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 25.
Markets
Dow rallies 400 points as Powell hints Fed could slow pace of rate hikes, Nasdaq jumps 4% | C
OPEC+ Walks a Fine Line on Oil Output: Elements by Julian Lee | B
Nasdaq has biggest one-day jump since 2020 after Fed rate hike, Powell comments | R
Powell says markets have been orderly as Fed has hiked rates | R
Energy
Energy Prices in Europe Surge After Russia Slashes Gas Flows | W
Central banks
Fed decision July 2022: Fed hikes interest rates by 0.75 percentage point | C
Fed raise rates again, says will not relent in inflation fight | R
Fed's Powell: Another 'unusually large' rate increase may be warranted at next meeting | R
Dudley Says Fed Will Hike Interest Rates Much Further Than What Markets Expect | B
Widely Watched Yield Curve at Most Inverted in Decades After Fed | B
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he does not think the U.S. is currently in a recession | C
US I
U.S. economy probably barely grew last quarter and may have contracted | C
What Is Stagflation? What to Know About the Combination of High Inflation and Stagnating Economic Growth | W
How U.S. Inflation Expectations Are Being Shaped by Consumer Choices | N
Cost of living crisis? Consumers keep spending for now | R
US II
US Budget Deficit to Hit Lowest Since 2018 This Year, CBO Says | B
CBO Expects Significant Rise in Public Debt Burden, Deficit | W
Midterm Elections 2022: The Political Guessing Game Just Got Weirder | B
Boise’s Housing Market Boomed Early in the Pandemic. Now It Is Cooling Fast. | W
China
China’s Wuhan Province Locks Down District With One Million People | W
Geopolitics & trade
Russia cuts gas flows further as Europe urges energy saving | R
U.S., Europe Dig In for Long Economic Standoff With Russia | W
Ukraine Strikes Crucial Bridge in Russian-Occupied South | W
Biden to Speak With Chinese President Xi on Thursday | W
Semiconductor Subsidies, Tariffs Are the Price of Reducing Dependence on China | W
Industries & companies
Hotels: Everybody Into the Hotel Pool! That’ll Be $200. | W
Retail: Walmart Discounts, Falling Gas Prices Could Help Consumers | B
Retail: Best Buy cuts sales forecast as inflation pressures shoppers | C
Corporate finance
Spirit and Frontier End Merger Agreement | W
Beyond markets
A radical vision for reinventing the suburbs | fastcompany.com
The Unsolved Mystery Attack on Internet Cables in Paris | WIRED
July 27 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: All About Housing
The US housing market is undergoing a reversal of fortune. The scorching hot market conditions of six months ago have reversed, as 40% home appreciation over the past two years plus soaring mortgage rates have priced homeownership beyond many Americans’ grasp. The resultant greater demand for rental units has spurred high rent inflation. Additionally, the pool of would-be homebuyers has shrunk, more deals are falling apart before closing, motivated sellers have begun dropping listing prices, and builders are slashing prices. … Today, we look at all things housing, including how recent demographic and domestic migration trends have affected market conditions and at how market conditions are affecting homebuilders.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 25.
Global
IMF Again Cuts Global Growth Forecast Amid Inflation, War in Ukraine | W
Central banks
The Fed could surprise markets by sounding even more aggressive as economy teeters | C
Fed to unveil another big rate hike as signs of economic slowdown grow | R
Four Things Markets Are Watching at Today's Fed Meeting | B
The problem with a persistently late Federal Reserve | The Hill
US
If it looks like a recession and quacks like a recession... | NN
Home-Price Growth Stayed Strong in May | W
Don’t Expect Big Consumer Brands to Lower Prices Soon | W
Low-Cost Cities With Strong Economies Remain Attractive as Housing Market Slows | W
Europe
Putin's new gas squeeze condemns Europe to recession and winter of rationing | C
China
China's property sales set for a worse plunge than in 2008, S&P says | C
Column: U.S. disapproval of China's grain stockpiling full of irony | R
Geopolitics & trade
Ukraine Calls for More Sanctions in Response to Russia’s ‘Gas War’ | W
Kremlin: Gazprom is supplying as much gas to Europe as possible | R
With No Work or Money, Ukrainians Return Home to Russian-Controlled Territory | W
Map of 'Power of Siberia' gas pipeline that China, Russia are working on | C
China Targeted Fed to Build Informant Network and Access Data, Probe Finds | W
Beyond markets
Penn Station plan is the worst deal since Manhattan was sold for $24 | P
Monkeypox emergency could last months, with window closing to stop spread, experts say | R
July 26 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: How Much Rate Hiking Does QT2 Equal?
The Fed may have 100bps less of rate hiking to do thanks to the tightening effects of the strong dollar and QT2, the Fed’s balance-sheet-reduction plan. That means the Fed may be done raising the federal funds rate in September after just two more 75bps increases to 3.00%. … Indeed, the Treasury market appears to be discounting a 3.00% peak, sooner rather than later. … The mortgage market in particular must be discounting QT2, as the Fed’s rate hiking alone can’t account for how high mortgage rates have soared, depressing housing and weakening the economy.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 25.
Markets
Premature rally? It's too early to talk of central bank 'peak hawkishness,' strategist says | C
The Markets and Economy Are Reaching a Fork in the Road | N
Bearish Dennis Gartman Becomes ‘Quietly Neutral’ After Stocks Rebound | B
Central banks
Fed's united front on interest rates may soon be tested | R
Investors Bet Fed Will Need to Cut Interest Rates Next Year to Bolster the Economy | W
US
The numbers show the U.S. economy is at least teetering on a recession | C
Shallow Recession Calls Are ‘Totally Delusional,’ Roubini Warns | B
This Dallas Fed Economic Survey Is the Perfect Snapshot of the Economy Right Now | B
Americans Driving Less With Pump Prices Still Higher Than a Year Ago | B
Inflation in US: Difficulty Paying Bills Tops Pandemic High in Census Survey | B
Why these 'unretirees' went back to work | NN
Nancy and Paul Pelosi are trading large — with a wealth of hypocrisy | P
Europe
Russia to Cut Europe’s Gas Flow via Nord Stream to 20% | W
China
From ‘Lying Flat’ to ‘Let It Rot’ China’s Gen Z Lowers Their Ambitions Even More | B
Industries & companies
Energy: U.S. Energy Department set to loan GM battery joint venture $2.5 bln | R
Materials: Redwood Materials Plans $3.5 Billion Battery-Materials Plant in Nevada | W
Retail: Walmart Cuts Profit Outlook as It Lowers Prices to Move Goods | W
Technology
Dreaming up new proteins, AI churns out possible medicines and vaccines | Science | AAAS
Climate
Gov Newsom declared a state of emergency over Oak Fire in California | C
July 25 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Anatomy Of A Mid-Cycle Slowdown
Investors still have plenty to fear. But our earnings and economic data analyses plus recent stock market action tend to support our relatively constructive outlooks for the economy and stock market (especially relative to the fears). … Specifically, we think the S&P 500 likely hit its bear-market low of 3666 on June 16 and will remain range bound between 3666-4150 pending economic improvement; the peaking of inflation should limit further valuation downside. … As for the economy, we think it’s undergoing a mid-cycle slowdown that could flatten expected earnings growth—but not a conventional recession that causes earnings to tank.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 18.
Markets
S&P 500 sheds nearly 1% Friday on Snap-led tech sell-off, but finishes higher on week | C
Weak Earnings Reports Aren’t Fazing Investors After Brutal Year for Stocks | W
ESG should be boiled down to one simple measure: emissions | E
The Latest Euro Crisis Was Decades in the Making | BR
Gold Prices Hit by Renewed Bets on Higher Yields and Stronger Dollar | W
Central banks
Fed to Inflict More Pain on Economy as It Readies Big Rate Hike | B
Summers Says Fed Needs to Take Strong Action to Curb Inflation | B
U.S. Risks Deeper Downturn If Fed Has to Fight Inflation Alone | W
Why ECB Rate Hikes Risk Breaking the Euro—and Europe | BR
US
There Are Signs Inflation May Have Peaked, but Can It Come Down Fast Enough? | W
Rich Americans Keep Borrowing, Defying Economic Gloom | W
Yellen Says Signs of US Recession Aren’t in Sight for Now | B
Why Is U.S. Infrastructure So Costly—and What Can We Do About It? | W
Redfin: Homebuyers want to leave San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York | C
Europe
Mario Draghi, Italy’s reformist prime minister, resigns | E
China
Is China Headed for a Lehman-Style Crisis? This Property Bust Is Different. | BR
China Bets Big on Basic Chips in Self-Sufficiency Push | W
Emerging
Favored Emerging-Market Trade Loses Luster on Recession Fears | B
Emerging-market crises have become harder to resolve | E
Geopolitics & trade
Ukraine works to resume grain exports, flags Russian strikes as risk | R
World leaders slam Putin's attack on Odesa following sea corridor deal | C
Odessa’s port may soon be reopened | E
Russia’s Natural-Gas Game Comes With Economic Risks | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Why CEO Mary Barra is confident GM can beat Tesla in electric vehicles | C
Consumer Discretionary: Buy Amazon Stock: It Could Double From Here | BR
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon: One Medical deal gives it access to my most personal info | C
Financials: Banks Are Better Off Than They Look. How to Profit With This Options Strategy. | BR
Retail: More Shoppers Buy Store Brands, Eating Into Big Food Companies’ Sales | W
Retail: Cheaper Beer, Cigarettes Gain Favor as Inflation Pinches Shoppers | W
Climate
Heat Wave Hits U.S. Farms, Stressing Crops and Ranchers’ Herds | W
U.S. Pushes for More Help for Drought-Stricken Eastern Africa | W
Wildfires burn coastal homes, forests in Greece as Europe's heatwave spreads east | R
Evacuations underway amid fire near Yosemite National Park | C
Explainer: What is behind the heat waves affecting the United States? | R
Technology
A West Coast port worker union is fighting robots. The stakes are high | C
Beyond markets
WHO declares spreading monkeypox outbreak a global health emergency | C
July 23 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Financials, China & Russian Gas
Banks have been navigating rising interest-rate seas remarkably well, managing to keep low the interest rates they pay out on deposits and raise the rates they take in on loans. As a result, net interest margins have been improving nicely from last year’s depressed levels. If banks can keep that up, the income upside would be substantial. … Also: China may regret not opposing Russia’s war in Ukraine if emerging market nations, struggling under the burden of war-induced food and energy inflation, aren’t able to make good on their debt payments to China. … And: A timely look at innovative ways to generate and store energy.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 18.
Markets
Stocks Drop, Ending Three-Day Rally | W
S&P 500 sheds nearly 1% Friday on Snap-led tech sell-off, but finishes higher on week | C
Broken Bulls, Big Breadth: Weighing a Case for a Turn in the Stock Market | B
Currencies & commodities
Column: Aluminum producers feel the margin pain as price slumps | R
What a Strong Dollar Means for the Rest of the World | W
Goldman Sachs Doubts Intervention on Euro, But Action on Yen Possible | B
US
U.S., Global Business Activity Slid in July | W
Consumer Confidence Drops as Inflation Hits Shoppers, Morgan Stanley Survey Says | B
Column: Oil and interest rate futures point to cyclical downturn before end of 2022 | R
You're not the only one who's confused about the economy. The experts are baffled, too | NN
Larry Summers Says Raise Taxes ‘Right Now’ to Help Battle Inflation | B
The One Place You Can Still Get a 3% Home Loan: Your Family | W
Shippers avoiding Port of Oakland as trucker protests stop trade | C
Europe
Europe Is Tested Anew, This Time by Energy, Inflation and Putin | W
Europe’s Diesel Market Slides From Mind-Blowing to Amazing | B
Gazprom says no additional obligations for Russia to get Nord Stream 1 turbine | R
Nord Stream 1 is flowing again. But Europe’s gas crisis isn’t going away. | Vox
Industries & companies
Autos: Apple CarPlay could be a trojan horse into the automotive industry | C
Geopolitics & trade
Ukraine’s Zelensky Says a Cease-Fire With Russia, Without Reclaiming Lost Lands, Will Only Prolong War | W
Russia, Ukraine Clear Way for Grain Exports to Resume Amid Fears of Global Food Crisis | W
Russia-Ukraine Grain Deal Won’t Translate Into Big Exports Immediately | W
Corporate finance
Steelmakers Pour On More Investments, Shaking Off Economic Concerns | W
Technology
Europe's energy giants explore potential of floating solar | C
Beyond markets
Monkeypox: Biden administration considering public health emergency | C
U.S. identifies first cases of monkeypox in children | R
Monkeypox 'panic' is overblown and failing | P
Americans Endure Yet Another Day in Record-Breaking Heat Wave | W
July 22 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Financials, China & Russian Gas
Banks have been navigating rising interest-rate seas remarkably well, managing to keep low the interest rates they pay out on deposits and raise the rates they take in on loans. As a result, net interest margins have been improving nicely from last year’s depressed levels. If banks can keep that up, the income upside would be substantial. … Also: China may regret not opposing Russia’s war in Ukraine if emerging market nations, struggling under the burden of war-induced food and energy inflation, aren’t able to make good on their debt payments to China. … And: A timely look at innovative ways to generate and store energy.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 18.
Markets
Stocks Finish Higher as Earnings Continue; Tesla Jumps Nearly 10% | W
What Is the Yield Curve? Wall Street’s Recession Alarm Is Ringing. | N
Fund Managers Show ‘Dire’ Levels of Pessimism, Poll Finds | N
Central banks
The ECB Raises While Mario Draghi Falls | W
ECB Raises Rates by Half-Percentage Point in First Hike Since 2011 | W
European Central Bank surprises markets with larger-than-expected rate hike | C
Analysis: R.I.P. forward guidance: Inflation forces central banks to ditch messaging tool | R
US
2 Big Reasons the Housing Market Will NOT Collapse | InvestorPlace
Companies Swallow $2.1 Billion in Taxes as Executive Pay Climbs | W
Europe
Russia Resumes Nord Stream Natural-Gas Supply to Europe | W
China
Is China facing a balance sheet recession? | Quartz
Geopolitics & trade
Ukraine's ports to reopen under deal to be signed Friday, Turkey says | R
Column: U.S. wheat steals world spotlight but Ukraine deal could interfere -Braun | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: Airlines temper flying ambitions after chaotic travel rebound | C
Energy: High Gas Prices Have Fuel Makers Raking In Cash | W
Corporate finance
Amazon to Buy One Medical Network of Health Clinics in Healthcare Expansion | W
Beyond markets
Japan decides to hold ex-PM Abe's state funeral on Sept 27 -source | R
July 21 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Financials, China & Russian Gas
Banks have been navigating rising interest-rate seas remarkably well, managing to keep low the interest rates they pay out on deposits and raise the rates they take in on loans. As a result, net interest margins have been improving nicely from last year’s depressed levels. If banks can keep that up, the income upside would be substantial. … Also: China may regret not opposing Russia’s war in Ukraine if emerging market nations, struggling under the burden of war-induced food and energy inflation, aren’t able to make good on their debt payments to China. … And: A timely look at innovative ways to generate and store energy.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 18.
Markets
Opinion: The painful market selloff should be over soon | NN
Tech Stocks Gain, With Nasdaq Climbing 1.6% | W
Market Rout Shows Dangers of Margin Lending, Crypto Style | W
The reason behind a mysterious trading surge in stocks like Berkshire Hathaway has been revealed | C
Central banks I
ECB Being Pulled in Multiple Directions as It Prepares First Rate Rise in a Decade | W
ECB to finally join rate hike club with big move on agenda | R
BOJ to retain easy policy, staying outside global tightening tide | R
Interest-Rate Pain From Higher Inflation Has Barely Begun | W
Central banks II
The Fed can fight inflation and unemployment — Here’s how | The Hill
Inflation Is a Beast the Fed Will Never Be Able to Tame | B
Powell's fool's journey chasing inflation | WP
Energy
Putin Says Russia to Meet Gas Commitments to Europe but Warns of Nord Stream Cuts | W
Natural Gas Remains Putin’s Weapon of Choice | W
Putin’s Gas Game: Toy With Europe’s Supply and Make Its Leaders Squirm | W
EU tells members to cut gas usage amid new Putin warning | R
Spain says it cannot support EU gas usage proposal | R
Gasoline prices may have hit summer peak and could be headed below $4 | C
US
U.S. existing home sales slide again; prices hit fresh record high | R
U.S. Home Prices Hit Record of $416,000 in June as Sales Continued to Slide | W
Mortgage demand drops to lowest level in 22 years | C
Inflation Has Now Devoured All Biden’s COVID ‘Rescue’ Checks | I&I
Consumers shun candles, barbecue kits as budgets tighten | R
Trucker protests stall cargo movement at California's No. 3 seaport | R
Republicans slam Biden's possible plan to cancel student debt | C
Europe
U.K. Inflation Hits 9.4%, a New 40-Year High | W
China
China Evergrande Prepares to Shed Light on Restructuring as Creditors’ Patience Wears Thin | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. faces recession if cut from Taiwan chip manufacturing: Raimondo | C
How Joe Manchin Left a Global Tax Deal in Limbo | N
Industries & companies
Airlines: Opinion: The pilot shortage is about to get a lot worse | NN
Tech: Chip-Making Machines Draw Record Orders for Dutch Tech Firm | W
Corporate finance
EXCLUSIVE Shell places U.S. Gulf of Mexico assets up for sale -sources | R
Climate
Biden announces new climate programs, but no emergency declaration | C
Europe heat wave photos: London fire department busiest day since WWII | C
More Than 100 Million Americans Face Dangerous Heat Wave | W
Beyond markets
Bad news: COVID-19 numbers are pretty meaningless | The Hill
July 20 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Dollar & Earnings
Although Fed officials rarely discuss the US dollar’s impact on the economy, the dollar’s recent strength does exert an impact comparable to some degree of interest-rate hiking. Ditto the Fed’s latest quantitative tightening program, QT2. Both effectively will lower the federal-funds-rate endpoint of this tightening cycle. … The dollar’s recent strength reflects massive inflows into US financial markets from overseas given the troubled economies most everywhere else. So we continue to recommend a Stay Home investment strategy for US investors. … How does the dollar’s strength affect corporate earnings? There’s no rule of thumb to go by, but with S&P 500 companies deriving about 40%-50% of their revenues and earnings from abroad, the impacts can be significant.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 18.
Markets
Dow Jumps 750 Points as Investors Take Hope From Earnings Reports | W
Strong Dollar Fuels Pullback in Commodity Markets | W
Central banks
Fed Officials Preparing to Lift Interest Rates by Another 0.75 Percentage Point | W
Energy
Exclusive: Russia seen restarting gas exports from Nord Stream 1 on schedule | R
Putin warns of Nord Stream 1 gas capacity cuts over equipment repairs | R
Vital Russian Gas Supplies to Europe Aren’t Expected to Restart, Says European Commission | W
Russia moves closer to cutting off gas as Gazprom declares force majeure on supplies | yahoo.com
Europe Fears a Long, Cold Winter if Russia Ends Supply of Natural Gas | W
ConocoPhillips CEO warns of oil supply shortages and price volatility | R
US
Diverging Jobs Data Raise Questions About Labor Market Health | W
China
Henry Kissinger Warns Biden Against Endless Confrontation Between US and China | B
Geopolitics & trade
Russia taking steps to annex Ukrainian territory, White House says | C
China Warns U.S. Against Nancy Pelosi Visit to Taiwan | W
Putin’s Trip to Tehran Aims to Boost Ties With Iran, Turkey | W
Putin forges ties with Iran's supreme leader in Tehran talks | R
Industries & companies
Cruise Lines: Shares of cruise lines jump after CDC ends Covid-19 program | C
Financials: CFPB to Push Banks to Cover More Payment-Services Scams | W
Home Builders: Home Building Slipped in June for Second Straight Month | W
Media: Netflix soothes Wall Street concerns with customer growth forecast | R
Tech: Google will once again test augmented reality glasses in public | C
Tech: Senate Moves Forward With $52 Billion in Semiconductor Funding for Chipmakers | B
Corporate finance
Google and Chevron invest in nuclear fusion startup TAE Technologies | C
Twitter-Musk Trial Set for October in Lawsuit Over Stalled $44 Billion Takeover | W
Climate
Heatwave: UK shatters record for its hottest day ever | C
Greek wildfire rages near Athens; homes, hospital evacuated | R
Biden to Tackle Climate Change During Visit to Former Coal Power Plant | W
Crypto
Cryptocurrency flowing into “mixers” hits an all-time high. Wanna guess why? | Ars Technica
Beyond markets
Covid: CDC approves Novavax vaccine for adults, shots available in coming weeks | C
As BA.5 Spreads, How Long Will a Prior Covid-19 Infection Protect You? | W
July 19 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: More On Inflation
Consumer prices, wages, home prices, rent: They’ve all been surging northward at stunning rates. Today, we take a deep dive into the wage-price-rent spiral. … We examine recent rent data, how they’re measured, and the forces that drive them—such as the plummeting affordability of home purchasing. … Regarding wages, one measure suggests wage inflation may be moderating, while the other shows it is still very high. … We still expect inflation to moderate, led by nondurable and durable goods inflation. The risk is that the wage-price-rent spiral continues, forcing the Fed to trigger a recession—which always has brought inflation down in the past. (subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 18.
Markets
Stocks edge up, dollar dips as Fed hike expectations lessened | R
Stocks Lose Ground as Banks Give Quarterly Updates | W
Deserted Stock Market Shows It Can Swerve Any Way at Any Time | B
Wall Street Titans Warn of 3 Big Risks as Markets Flash Recession Warning | B
Energy
Exclusive: Russia's Gazprom tells European buyers gas supply halt beyond its control | R
Looming Gas Crunch Poses ‘Historic Test’ for Europe, IEA Says | W
Europe Fears Widespread Economic Fallout if Russian Gas Outage Drags On | W
Price cap on Russian oil could push oil to $140: Think tank IAGS | C
Global
Food security crisis could kill more people than Covid: Amadou Hott | C
Strong US Dollar, Trade Gap, Worse Inflation Globally | B
US
Diverging Jobs Data Raise Questions About Labor Market Health | W
Housing Boom Fades World-Wide as Interest Rates Climb | W
What Is the True Cost of Inflation? It’s Complicated. | W
2024 election: Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris engage with donors | C
China
China U.S. debt holdings go under $1 trillion for 1st time in 12 years | C
China Weighs Mortgage Grace Period to Appease Angry Homebuyers | B
How China became ground zero for the auto chip shortage | R
Xi's Strict Covid Zero Policy in China Pushes Wealthy to Leave Country | B
Geopolitics & trade
U.S., allies cannot allow China to dominate raw materials, technologies - Yellen | R
Xi’s Beijing Invite Unanswered by Top Europe Leaders, SCMP Says | B
Industries & companies
Airlines: Air Travel Is Broken. Here’s Why. | W
Airlines: 1,000 bags. Zero passengers. Delta flight from Heathrow latest sign of air travel hell | NN
Consumer discretionary: Amazon faces probe by federal prosecutors, OSHA into warehouse safety | C
Media: Hulu Is Driving More Streaming Subscribers to Disney Than Marvel or Star Wars | W
Tech: TikTok owner ByteDance explores self-designed chips | C
Crypto
Crypto miners moved over $300 million of bitcoin in one day | C
Climate
Offshore drilling produces not just oil but fish — and lots of them | P
Europe suffers from deadly heat wave as wildfires displace thousands | C
Beyond markets
China Covid Cases Jump; Officials Say Still ‘Severe’ in Shanghai | B
Why BA.5 is good at dodging our immune systems, even if you’ve just had Covid-19 | Vox
July 18 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Bear Market Rally Or A New Bull Market?
What’s ahead for the stock market? That depends on the significance of the S&P 500’s June 16 low-to-date in the current bear market, of 3666. If that turns out to be the bear’s bottom—which sure would be freaky since the previous one was at S&P 500 666—then either a bull market or a sideways-drifting one is just ahead. Alternatively, deeper lows may be in store if the gain since June 16 was just a short-covering rally within a bear market (as the reversal in sector leadership suggests). … Today, we examine both the bull and bear scenarios, laying out the cases for each.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 11.
Markets
Stocks rose as Wall Street weighed fresh earnings and economic data | C
Earnings Season Off to Slow Start, Clouding the Outlook for Stocks | W
Earnings could be an even bigger catalyst for stocks after the market’s wild ride on rate fears | C
Strong Dollar Extends Gains With No End to Rally in Sight | W
Gas Crisis of the ’70s Holds Lessons for Today | B
Global
When Will Supply Chains Return to Normal | B
Central banks
The ECB’s masterplan to manipulate markets | E
Fed Officials Preparing to Lift Interest Rates by Another 0.75 Percentage Point | W
As Fed Tightens, Economists Worry It Will Go Too Far | W
Energy
Sanctions Exemption for Turbines Aims to Restart Russian Gas Flows to Europe | W
Plan to Cap Russian Oil Prices Faces Big Obstacle: Vladimir Putin | BR
US I
Even if GDP shrinks, America may officially avoid a downturn. For now | E
U.S. Retail Sales Rose 1% in June | W
Inflation Has Outpaced Wage Growth. Now It’s Cutting Into Spending. | W
Food Prices Rose in June. Here Are the Items With the Biggest Increases. | BR
What Is the True Cost of Inflation? It’s Complicated. | W
US II
All Jobs Businesses Cut in Pandemic Are Back, but Not Where They Were Lost | W
Democrats in America are realizing they must moderate or die | E
Sen. Joe Manchin Balks at Global Minimum Tax Championed by Biden | W
Europe
Europe is preparing for Russian gas to be cut off this winter | E
Europe’s winter of discontent | E
Japan
Japan should stay true to Abe Shinzo’s vision—up to a point | E
Abe Shinzo’s policies will live on, but may be enacted more slowly | E
Inflation Is Just What Japan Needs. Play It With These Funds. | BR
China
Xi Jinping’s Policies Backfire: China Is Pariah for Global Investors | B
Industries & companies
Airlines: Boeing Vows It Won’t Build ‘Gliders’ as Engine Shortage Expands | B
Restaurants: Customer service suffers at short-staffed restaurants as Covid takes toll | C
Tech: After a turbocharged boom, are chipmakers in for a supersize bust? | E
Climate
'Climate change affects everyone': Europe battles wildfires in intense heat | R
Beyond markets
Tech Savvy or Tech Addicted? Older Adults Are Stuck on Screens, Too | W
July 16 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Europe Sans Gaz (ESG)
Russia’s not above weaponizing its natural gas supplies to European nations; it has already frozen out Denmark, Poland, Bulgaria, and Finland in retaliation for decisions Putin didn’t like. So does Russia’s recent close-down of Nord Stream 1 for “repairs” mean that the pipeline critical to heating Germany this winter won’t be reopening? Jackie looks at the potential for an energy crisis in Europe and how various nations might fare. … Also: China faces mountainous economic challenges of its own. … And: With electric vehicle prevalence forecast to skyrocket this decade, an important new industry is born—lithium battery recycling.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 11.
Markets
Stock Investors, After Brutal Stretch, Have Rarely Been This Pessimistic | W
World stocks rally, dollar dips as investors weigh spending data, inflation scares | R
Dow Closes Up More Than 650 Points on Retail Spending Data | W
Investors Pour Cash Into Higher-Yielding Fixed Annuities | W
The big default? The dozen countries in the danger zone | R
Chaos Is Becoming the Rational Base Case in Market Ruled by Fear | B
Central banks
Fed ‘Let Us Down Quite Badly’ and Still Unrealistic, Summers Says | B
US
U.S. Retail Sales Rose 1% in June | W
US Retail Sales June 2022: Value Rises 1%, Topping Forecasts in Broad Advance | B
[Diesel] is pushing up the price of almost everything you buy | NN
Black US Households Face Higher Inflation, Richmond Fed Says | B
The Housing Shortage Isn’t Just a Coastal Crisis Anymore | N
China
China’s Economic Comeback From Covid-19 Shutdowns Likely to Be Slow and Bumpy | W
China Is in Trouble, Even With Sliver of Growth | W
Europe
Mario Draghi Resignation Puts Italy’s Leadership in Flux | W
Europeans Are Working Even Less, and Not by Choice | W
Geopolitics & trade
Putin and Xi’s Bet on the Global South | W
Biden confronts Saudi crown prince over Khashoggi murder, expects action on energy | R
Ukraine strikes significantly reducing Russia's offensive potential, Kyiv says | R
U.S. Navy ship again sails near disputed S. China Sea islands | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Volkswagen to Keep Factory Running in China’s Xinjiang Region | W
Retail: Amazon Has Been Slashing Private-Label Selection Amid Weak Sales | W
Retail: Amazon Hits Pause on Office Construction in Tennessee, Washington State as Workers Go Hybrid | W
Beyond markets
Most of U.S. Population Now in Areas With High Covid-19 Levels as BA.5 Subvariant Spreads | W
How Covid screwed up our antibiotics | Vox
July 15 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Europe Sans Gaz (ESG)
Russia’s not above weaponizing its natural gas supplies to European nations; it has already frozen out Denmark, Poland, Bulgaria, and Finland in retaliation for decisions Putin didn’t like. So does Russia’s recent close-down of Nord Stream 1 for “repairs” mean that the pipeline critical to heating Germany this winter won’t be reopening? Jackie looks at the potential for an energy crisis in Europe and how various nations might fare. … Also: China faces mountainous economic challenges of its own. … And: With electric vehicle prevalence forecast to skyrocket this decade, an important new industry is born—lithium battery recycling.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 11.
Markets
Dow falls 100 points as Wall Street weighs more aggressive Fed, disappointing bank earnings | C
Bond Market Is Flashing a Recession Warning--Again | Morningstar
Euro Slips Below Dollar as Europe’s Economic Fortunes Slump | W
How to Invest During Inflation | N
Central banks
Central banks rapidly shift gears in bid to stem inflation tidal wave | R
All Crisis Scenarios Lead to Rome as ECB Starts Raising Interest Rates | B
Inflation jumped again in June. How bad is it and what will the Fed do next? | Vox
Fed’s James Bullard Favors 75 Basis-Point Rate Hike in July, Nikkei Reports | B
Fed Governor Waller expects 0.75 percentage point hike, but open to a larger one | C
Powell, Clarida cleared of wrongdoing in Fed trading controversy | C
Jamie Dimon rips Fed stress test as 'terrible way to run' financial system | C
US
JPMorgan CEO Dimon sums up U.S. economy in one paragraph — and it sounds bad | C
Producer Price Gains Accelerated in June | W
Biden Calls Inflation Numbers ‘Out of Date.’ Americans Disagree | B
Economists are predicting a recession but companies are still hiring | Vox
People Have Money but Feel Glum—What Does That Mean for Economy? | W
Will Home Prices Fall? Listings Rise for the First Time in Three Years | B
Mortgage Rates Rise Again After Recording Sharp Drop | W
How inflation can hurt and help consumers, according to economists | C
Europe
Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi Says He Will Resign | W
'No, Mario', Italian president urges PM Draghi not to quit | R
Europe's Heat Wave Is Pushing Energy Prices Up and Clean Energy Out | B
German Economy Is ‘Moving Into Recession,’ Deutsche Bank Says | B
China
China Set to Post the Slowest Growth in Two Years on Zero-Covid Policy | W
China Property Market Shudders as Buyers Threaten to Stop Mortgage Payments | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: Airlines’ Challenge Is Cutting Costs, Not Filling Seats | N
Autos: GM and Pilot Plan National Electric-Vehicle Charging Network | W
Financials: Bank of America fined $225 million over unemployment benefits program | C
Beyond markets
Baby-Formula Shortage Deepens, Defying Replenishment Efforts | W
July 14 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Europe Sans Gaz (ESG)
Russia’s not above weaponizing its natural gas supplies to European nations; it has already frozen out Denmark, Poland, Bulgaria, and Finland in retaliation for decisions Putin didn’t like. So does Russia’s recent close-down of Nord Stream 1 for “repairs” mean that the pipeline critical to heating Germany this winter won’t be reopening? Jackie looks at the potential for an energy crisis in Europe and how various nations might fare. … Also: China faces mountainous economic challenges of its own. … And: With electric vehicle prevalence forecast to skyrocket this decade, an important new industry is born—lithium battery recycling.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 11.
Markets
Stocks Decline as Inflation Accelerates | W
Municipal-Bond Issuers Fall Behind on Disclosures | W
Central banks
Inflation May Have Peaked, but the Fed Won’t Back Off | W
Hot inflation fuels bets on supersized Fed rate hike | R
Currency & commodities
Global Oil-Supply Crisis Shows Signs of Easing, IEA Says | W
Germany’s confounding climate move to opt for coal over nuclear power | Vox
Analysis: Euro is at parity; its fate is now with energy markets | R
Euro Hits Parity With U.S. Dollar for First Time in 20 Years | N
Yellen Pitches Russian-Oil Price Cap to Chinese Counterpart | W
US
Inflation rose 9.1% in June, even more than expected, as consumer pressures intensify | C
Inflation Soared in June, Pinching Consumers and Challenging Policymakers | N
U.S. Inflation Hits New Four-Decade High of 9.1% | W
The Inflation Tax on Workers | W
Gas Prices, a Big Inflation Factor, Are Coming Down Sharply | N
U.S. Economy Slows in Several Parts of the Country, Fed’s Beige Book Says | W
Beware Wishful Thinking About Inflation and Recession | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Americans are paying record-high prices for new vehicles | C
Financials: Bank Earnings Will Give Clues About Whether a Recession Is Looming | W
Media: Netflix partners with Microsoft on ad-supported subscription plan | C
Retail: Inflation: Clothes are expensive even as retailers try to clear inventory | C
Geopolitics & trade
Breakthrough at Ukraine grain export talks as heavy shelling continues | R
U.S. successfully tests pair of Lockheed hypersonic missiles | R
Beyond markets
Is the World Really Falling Apart, or Does It Just Feel That Way? | N
July 13 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Earnings, Inflation & Europe
Industry analysts are starting to lower their earnings estimates for some of the companies they follow. They aren’t doing so because they suddenly see an imminent recession but rather profit margins getting squeezed. …We don’t expect this morning’s June CPI release to show a peaking of inflation just yet. July’s CPI should do so. We see inflation moderating during the second half of this year and further in 2023. … Also: A peek into the world of Europe’s credit markets. These markets have been buffeted lately, first by the ECB’s hawkishness, then by its reassurances of help for the most indebted of the Eurozone’s nations.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 11.
Markets
Stocks, Oil Fall on Growth Concerns | W
China Stocks Hit Fresh Turbulence, Casting Doubt Over Recent Rebound | W
Dividend Payouts Hit Record Despite Rocky Stretch in Markets | W
Ackman to Close $4 Billion SPAC | W
Currency & commodities
Markets Plan Doomsday Scenarios If Russia Stops Gas Supply to Europe | B
Euro reaches parity against dollar, hits lowest level since 2002 | C
OPEC’s First 2023 Outlook Shows No Relief for Oil Market Squeeze | B
US
IMF Cuts Month-Old Forecast for US GDP, Citing Inflation Risks | B
Inflation is expected to be hotter in June, but a peak may be showing | C
New York Fed Survey Finds Long-Term Inflation Expectations Falling | W
Housing Could Provide More Fuel for Inflation | W
Maybe the answer to $5 gas is higher pay | The Hill
Europe
Eight candidates make cut in race to succeed UK PM Johnson | R
Geopolitics & trade
Switzerland, Playground of Russian Oligarchs, Emerges as Sanctions Weak Link | W
Biden’s Woes at Home Loom Over Mideast Trip That’s All About Oil | B
Beyond markets
Covid: Hospitalizations have doubled since May as omicron BA.5 sweeps U.S. | C
July 12 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Thumbs Up or Down For Q2 Earnings?
Ready for the earnings season? Investors have been fearing a recession since this year began, as depressed stock valuations attest, while industry analysts have catapulted their earnings and revenues estimates to record highs. There’s certainly no recession evident in forward revenues or forward earnings. … We think Q2 earnings calls will be full of examples of inflation boosting companies’ results and the Fed’s response to inflation not yet depressing them. However, the strong dollar and weaker global economic growth will weigh on earnings. Today, we provide a sector-specific rundown of issues that we expect to hear a lot about on Q2 earnings calls.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 5.
Markets
U.S. Stocks End Lower Ahead of Inflation Data, Earnings Season | W
Global shares decline, bond yields slide and dollar rallies amid inflation fears | R
Global Investors Dump Bonds of Chinese Banks That Lent Heavily to Russia | W
Central banks
Those Predicting a ‘Fed-Induced Recession’ Misunderstand the Meaning of Recession | FO
US
Most Democrats want Biden not to run for president in 2024 | C
Biden's bombed with business, and there's panic in the C-suite | P
Donald Trump and the Midterms | W
Democratic-Led States Let Their Federal Unemployment Debts Linger | W
Homebuyers are canceling deals at highest rate since start of Covid | C
Europe
Europe fears extended shutdown as Russia halts gas flows to Germany | C
Chip Giants to Build Factory in France as Global Supply Race Rolls On | W
UK inflation still likely to fall sharply next year, BoE's Bailey says | R
Emerging
Chile currency plunge, inflation rattle Latin America's copper king | R
Geopolitics & trade
Chinese Communist Cells in Western Firms? | W
Global Tax Talks Hit Another Delay | W
Industries & companies
Media: Moviegoers are leaving their couches for theaters, bringing summer box office sales close to pre-pandemic levels | C
Retail: Amazon's smart grocery carts are coming to some Whole Foods stores | C
Retail: Nobody likes self-checkout. Here's why it's everywhere | NN
Climate
Farmers are making thousands of dollars from carbon credits | C
Texans Are Asked to Conserve Power as Extreme Heat Threatens Electric Grid | W
Technology
Miners Are Relying More on Robots. Now They Need Workers to Operate Them. | W
Corporate finance
Hiltzik: Musk wants out of his Twitter deal, no surprise there | LA Times
Beyond markets
First Full-Color Image From NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope Unveiled by Biden | W
Omicron Strains Drive New Covid Wave in Europe as Measures Fall Away | W
July 11 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Reassessing the ‘Banana’ Scenario
Is a recession imminent? Is it here already? How big an impact will it have, if it comes, when it comes? The dreaded “R” word has everyone in a tither, and so does the weakness in the LEI. But the CEI suggests everything’s just fine. We recap the latest economic releases and how they’ve led us to the subjective probabilities we assign to four alternative economic scenarios. … We also assess how well peaks in the S&P 500 presage recessions. ... And: The stock market may have hit its bear bottom already according to the Da Vinci Code, if inflation is peaking and that tempers the Fed’s hawkishness. Also: Dr. Ed reviews “Staircase” (+ +).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 5.
Markets
The Stock Market Faces Next Test as Inflation Looms Over Earnings Season | W
Premarket stocks: Inflation and markets have a complicated relationship | NN
Dividend Stocks Can Help During Recession. Here’s What to Look For. | BR
Central banks
For the Fed, Easing Too Soon Risks Repeat of Stop-and-Go 1970s | W
Global
Sri Lanka Crisis Flashes Warning for Other Indebted Economies | W
Europe
Manufacturers Brace for Nord Stream Repairs, Fearing Pipeline Won’t Reopen | W
France’s President Emmanuel Macron decides to go it alone | E
Japan
Shinzo Abe’s Goal of Revising Japan’s Constitution Moves Closer After LDP Election Victory | W
China
China factories are feeling some heat as U.S., Europe demand slows | C
Fed Up With China, One Boss Tries Removing It From the Supply Chain | W
Geopolitics & trade
Polish-German relations have gone sour | E
Ukraine War Pushes Millions of the World’s Poorest Toward Starvation | W
Industries & companies
Energy: Exxon Mobil’s Darren Woods: Barron’s Top CEOs 2022 | BR
Media: Box office: 'Thor: Love and Thunder' has $143 million domestic opening | C
Pharma: Pfizer’s Albert Bourla: Barron’s Top CEOs 2022 | BR
Retail: Amazon Prime Day 2022: Why deal experts say you might want to skip it | C
Retail: Nordstrom’s Erik Nordstrom: Barron’s Top CEOs 2022 | BR
Beyond markets
Brazil party official shot dead as pre-election political violence escalates | R
Abe killer wielded homemade gun, grudge over mother's financial ruin | C
July 09 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China, Earnings & Batteries
China’s stock market has enjoyed a nice bounce this year as President Xi’s policies have grown more business friendly as the Chinese Communist Party meeting approaches. We remain concerned about the heavy debt loads forcing Chinese real estate development companies to restructure. We’re also watching Covid cases and Chinese exports to the slowing US and European economies. … We also take a look at which industries’ consensus earnings have been revised down by analysts so far this year. … Electric vehicles may emit less CO2 than internal combustion engines, but manufacturing and disposing of lithium batteries is an awfully dirty business.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 5.
Markets
Dow, S&P 500 Slip as Jobs Growth Remains Strong | W
What Smart Investors Do in Bear Markets | W
How to Invest for Retirement During a Bear Market | N
Nasdaq rises for fifth-straight day after strong jobs report as Wall Street notches winning week | C
Commodities & currency
Gas Prices Have Fallen for 24 Straight Days. The Relief Might Only Be Temporary. | W
The One Commodity That Won’t Stop Soaring | OilPrice.com
What's the Impact of the Strong Dollar on My Portfolio? | Morningstar
How Low Can the Euro Go? | W
Food Prices Squeeze Poorest in Rich Countries | W
Central banks
Jobs Report Could Keep Fed on Track for 0.75-Point Rate Rise in July | W
Eurozone Banks Fail to Factor In Climate Risks, ECB Says | W
US
U.S. Added 372,000 Jobs in June | W
Here's where the jobs are for June 2022 — in one chart | C
Involuntary part-time worker numbers dip to lowest level in 21 years | C
Big payroll gains push recession fears into the corner — for now | C
The Economy Could Have a Long Case of Long Covid | W
Housing-Affordability Index Drops to Lowest Level Since 2006 | W
Japan
Japan's former PM Shinzo Abe assassinated at campaign event | C
Geopolitics & trade
Why tensions between China and Taiwan are on the rise | C
U.S. to send 15th military package to Ukraine, bringing total aid in Russia war to $7 billion | C
U.S., Chinese foreign ministers hold first talks since October | R
Fitch downgrades Turkey's debt rating to 'B' from 'B+' | R
Corporate finance
Elon Musk notifies Twitter he is terminating deal | C
Crypto
Fed's Brainard says crypto needs regulation before it becomes too big | C
Bitcoin heads toward best week since October as crypto collapse stabilizes | C
July 08 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China, Earnings & Batteries
China’s stock market has enjoyed a nice bounce this year as President Xi’s policies have grown more business friendly as the Chinese Communist Party meeting approaches. We remain concerned about the heavy debt loads forcing Chinese real estate development companies to restructure. We’re also watching Covid cases and Chinese exports to the slowing US and European economies. … We also take a look at which industries’ consensus earnings have been revised down by analysts so far this year. … Electric vehicles may emit less CO2 than internal combustion engines, but manufacturing and disposing of lithium batteries is an awfully dirty business.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on July 5.
Markets
Stocks Close Higher as Investors Parse Economic Data | W
Gasoline futures are dropping, which could mean more relief at the pump | C
Central banks
Fed officials Waller and Bullard back another big interest rate increase in July | C
US
Mortgage Rates Fall to 5.30%, Reflecting Recession Fears | W