2023 Barron’s “The Trader” Columns and WSJ Stock Market Data
Dec 29
The Stock Market Saved Its Biggest Disappointment for the Last Day of the Year
It was a great year, one full of missed predictions, superlative market moves, contradictory currents—and one final disappointment. No matter how hard it tried, the S&P 500 index just couldn’t close at a record high in 2023.
S&P 500: 4769.83
Dec 22
Why It’s Not Too Late to Chase the Stock Market
Stocks keep soaring, but it isn’t too late to get into the market. Just look at the cash sitting on the sidelines.
S&P 500: 4754.63
Dec 15
The Bulls Are Back. They May Not Like the Reasons Why the Fed Is Easing.
There isn’t much more to wish for from the market this year after the Federal Reserve delivered the prospect of monetary easing wrapped in a big, shiny bow.
S&P 500: 4719.19
Dec 8
Stocks Can Top All-Time Highs. The Reason: Fourth-Quarter Earnings.
The stock market is trying to return to its all-time high, but it needs a catalyst to do so. That catalyst could be earnings.
S&P 500: 4604.37
Dec 1
The Fed Isn’t the Only Thing Sending the Stock Market Higher
Stocks just had their best month in more than a year. It’s easy to credit the gains to the market’s conviction that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates. Don’t forget about earnings.
S&P 500: 4594.63
Nov 24
The Stock Market Had a Wonderful Thanksgiving. Now It’s Time to Celebrate Christmas.
Thanksgiving may be over, but investors still have reason to be thankful—a Santa Claus rally is set to begin.
S&P 500: 4559.34
Nov 17
The Stock Market Has Momentum. Why the S&P 500 Can Hit a New High This Year.
The November stock market rally has been convincing—so much so that we are now convinced that the S&P 500 index can hit a record high by the end of the year.
S&P 500: 4514.02
Nov 10
It’s a Treasury Bond World. The Stock Market Just Lives in It.
It’s the middle of earnings season, but the Treasury market is doing more to move the stock market than any company fundamentals.
S&P 500: 4415.24
Nov 3
The Stock Market Is Hot Again. Earnings Say Be Careful.
The market’s fear gauge says to expect calm. The response of individual stocks to earnings has been anything but. Don’t be surprised if turbulence returns sooner rather than later.
S&P 500: 4358.34
Oct 27
Despite a Hot GDP Number, the Stock Market Just Couldn’t Sustain Its Rally
The stock market can’t sustain a rally—and that’s a bad omen as the selloff gathers speed.
S&P 500: 4117.37
Oct 20
Do 5% Bond Yields Scare You? Count to 10 and Adjust.
The stock market has been preoccupied with the number five of late.
S&P 500: 4224.16
Oct 13
Step Aside, Banks. Tesla and Netflix Earnings Are the Real Tests.
Forget banks—third-quarter earnings season doesn’t start until Wednesday, when
Netflix and Tesla report.
S&P 500: 4327.78
Oct 6
The Stock Market’s Biggest Problem Isn’t Treasury Yields—It’s Earnings
Bond yields have had their fun. Now it’s time for earnings to drive the market.
S&P 500: 4308.50
Sep 29
A Rough September Is Finally Over. Now Is the Time to Buy Stocks.
Questions about the economy, what the Fed will do next, and corporate earnings won’t be answered for months. It’s a good time to buy stocks anyway.
S&P 500: 4288.05
Sep 22
The Stock Market’s Drop Was the Worst Since March. Is It September or Something More Sinister?
The autumn equinox is supposed to bring equilibrium, but the market feels anything but balanced. Thankfully, the market’s spooky season might be ending as October begins.
S&P 500: 4320.06
Sep 15
Markets Bounce Around and Wind Up Where They Started. Get Used to It.
Trading has been choppy and range-bound in recent weeks, leaving investors with a seasick feeling. Don’t expect smoother sailing just yet.
S&P 500: 4450.32
Sep 8
A New Stock Market High Looks Far Away. There’s a Lot at Stake.
The S&P 500 has soared this year, and the only challenge left is for the index to hit a new record high. Can it do it?
S&P 500: 4457.49
Sep 1
August Jobs Report Shows Labor Markets Cooling.
That may persuade the Fed to pause.
S&P 500: 4515.77
Aug 25
Nvidia Beats Big, and Powell Doesn’t Rock the Boat. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.
Between Nvidia’s blowout earnings and an unsurprising Jackson Hole, the stock market should have gotten everything it needed to end talk of a correction. That fact that it didn’t suggests that there is probably more downside ahead.
S&P 500: 4405.71
Aug 18
The Stock Market Has a Real Problem—a Real Yield Problem
Everyone likes a good competition—except when it’s hammering the stock market.
S&P 500: 4369.71
Aug 11
The Stock Market Had Another Tough Week. It’s August.
August is living up to its reputation as a tough month for stocks—but it might also be setting investors up for the next opportunity.
S&P 500: 4464.05
Aug 4
The Stock Market’s Rally Paused. It’s Time to Buy the Dip.
Stocks have soared, and Wall Street is raising its S&P 500 targets. Please do your best to ignore them.
S&P 500: 4478.03
Jul 28
For the Stock Market, Earnings Are Everything—and More Than Enough
Forget the Fed. Look past the data. There’s just one thing that mattered to the market this past week—earnings—and they were darn good. Expect them to keep pushing stocks higher.
S&P 500: 4582.23
Jul 21
The Fed Could End the Stock Market’s Rally Anytime It Wants To
The best noise-canceling headphones may be the ones the market has been wearing this year. It better hope the Federal Reserve doesn’t snatch them away—because stocks might not like what they’re forced to listen to.
S&P 500: 4536.34
Jul 14
More Stocks Have Joined the Rally. Why It May Be Time to Worry.
The market’s case of bad breadth is getting better—but it’s still a megacap world until proven otherwise.
S&P 500: 4505.42
Jul 7
A Big-Stakes Earning Season Is Around the Corner. What to Expect.
Earnings season begins this coming week with big U.S. banks reporting. The S&P 500 might not soar from the second-quarter reports, but some areas of the market might.
S&P 500: 4398.95
Jun 30
Stock Market Rallies Because Good News Is Good News. But It’s Still a Time to Be Cautious.
Call it the “What, me worry?” stock market.
S&P 500: 4450.38
Jun 23
AI Stocks Are a Long Way From Bubble Territory
The stock market has disturbed, irritated, and puzzled investors by rallying this year. But stocks haven’t gotten frothy enough.
S&P 500: 4348.33
Jun 16
The Stock Market Is on a Roll—and It Can Keep Pushing Higher
Nothing can stop the stock market—not even the Federal Reserve. Don’t expect the rally to stop here.
S&P 500: 4409.59
Jun 9
Stock Market Gains as Wall of Worry Crumbles. What Happens Next.
The S&P 500 index is in a bull market, volatility is very low, and more stocks are rising than in recent months. There must be nothing going on to worry investors, huh?
S&P 500: 4298.86
Jun 2
The Stock Market Throws a Party—and Everyone’s Invited
Summer is a time to kick back and enjoy the sunshine. The stock market may be coming around to that idea.
S&P 500: 4282.37
May 26
Hedge Funds Are Bullish on Their Stocks but Bearish on the Market
In the first quarter, hedge funds sold banks and technology stocks, while adding to defensive stocks like healthcare.
S&P 500: 4205.45
May 19
Stock Market Shrugs Off Doomsday Scenarios. It Might Be Right.
Always look on the bright side of life, Monty Python once sang, and that’s a message the stock market seems to be embracing.
S&P 500: 4191.98
May 12
Everyone Expects the Stock Market to Tumble. What if It Goes Up Instead?
It isn’t time to get bullish just yet, but darn, we’re getting close.
S&P 500: 4124.08
May 5
The Fed Is Set Up for a Pause. Why the Stock Market Is Set for a Fall.
Considering the way this year has gone, one would expect the Federal Reserve’s likely pause in interest-rate hikes to send the stock market higher. That’s not what happened—and for good reason.
S&P 500: 4136.25
Apr 28
Many Stocks Look Attractive. The Stock Market Doesn’t.
Stockpickers will like the market’s next phase.
S&P 500: 4169.48
Apr 21
The Stock Market Barely Budged, but Don’t Let It Fool You—Earnings Season Is Going Swimmingly
For the stock market, earnings represent the sum of all fears. But if they don’t play out the way bearish investors think they will, shares’ next move could be higher.
S&P 500: 4133.52
Apr 14
As Bank Earnings Go, So Goes the Stock Market. So Far, So Good.
The major indexes finished a listless week not far from where they started, with below-average daily trading volume and declining volatility. Call it the calm before the first-quarter earnings storm.
S&P 500: 4137.64
Apr 7
Tired of Waiting for the Fed to Pivot? Try This Move Instead.
Investors can’t wait for the Federal Reserve to start pivoting. This past week’s action—illuminated by a pink full moon—shows that they might have to wait a bit longer.
S&P 500: 4105.02
Mar 31
The Stock Market Rallied Into a Banking Slowdown. Be Worried.
We take the good, and we take the bad—but the stock market is taking it to extremes.
S&P 500: 4109.31
Mar 24
This Stock Market’s Floor Could Still Fall Out
For a while, the most likely outcome for stock markets in 2023 was a trading range. Now, much worse scenarios are on the table.
S&P 500: 3970.99
Mar 17
The Stock Market Storm Is Far From Over
Stocks alternated strong rallies and sharp declines this past week amid a stretch of bank blowups and attempts to shore up the financial system.
S&P 500: 3916.64
Mar 10
The Stock Market Is Getting Hit by Higher Rates and Tumbling Banks. Why the Next Move Could Be Higher.
Rates are rising. Banks are failing. And, believe it or not, the S&P 500 could still hit 4600.
S&P 500: 3861.59
Mar 3
Jupiter and Venus Are Aligned, and the Stock Market Is Rallying Again
Jupiter and Venus appear to be “touching” despite being separated by 400 million miles. The stock market, seemingly millions of miles from the Fed, is in no rush to converge.
S&P 500: 4045.64
Feb 24
The Stock Market Doesn’t Look Cheap—Any Way You Slice It
Stock indexes closed another losing week in a downbeat February, as investors continue to debate the path of the economy and monetary policy.
S&P 500: 3970.04
Feb 17
Should You Sell Your Stocks in March and Go Away? Maybe.
Investors have heard the dictum “sell in May and go away.” This year they might want to consider selling in March.
S&P 500: 4079.09
Feb 10
The Stock Market Just Had Its Worst Week of the Year. No News Is Bad News.
It’s the middle of February, and the stock market finally seems caught in the winter doldrums. There may be more gray days ahead.
S&P 500: 4090.46
Feb 3
The Stock Market Is in the Mood to Rally, Even if It Defies Logic
“The disinflationary process has started,” said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at Wednesday’s press conference, and with that, the stock market took off.
S&P 500: 4136.48
Jan 27
An Unstoppable Market Is About to Meet the Immovable Fed
The stock market has acted as if the Fed doesn’t exist as it jumps out to a quick start. Expect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to remind it when the central bank hikes interest rates this week.
S&P 500: 4070.56
Jan 20
Stocks and Bonds Are Sending Different Messages. One of Them Is Wrong.
Stocks have embraced the concept of a soft landing so far in 2023. Bonds are trading like a recession is nigh. Only one can be right.
S&P 500: 3972.61
Jan 13
Inflation Isn’t the Stock Market’s Biggest Problem Now. Deflation Is.
The boogeyman of disinflation—and even some deflation—is about to become the biggest risk to stocks, and investors are going to have to figure out how to position portfolios for falling prices.
S&P 500: 3999.09
Jan 6
The Stock Market Is Off to a Great Start. Earnings Season Could Be a Problem.
Investors got their Goldilocks jobs report on Friday morning, with a growing-but-slowing labor market, a tick-up in participation, and a deceleration in the pace of wage gains.
S&P 500: 3895.08