November 14 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Relevant Matters
Today, we focus our observations on earnings, valuation, and inflation. … S&P 500 companies’ collective Q3 earnings, forward earnings, and forward revenues all stand at record highs. But analysts’ earnings estimates for future quarters have been dropping. … There’s not always a neat inverse correlation between stock market valuations and bond yields. One reason: The MegaCap-8 stocks represent an outsized chunk of the S&P 500’s P/E; but with less leverage than most companies, interest rates affect them less. … Our moderating inflation outlook suggests no more federal funds rate hikes this tightening round; we examine some of the data it reflects.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on November 13.

Markets
European stocks up ahead of U.S. inflation data | R

Central banks
UBS sees a raft of Fed rate cuts next year on the back of a U.S. recession | C

US
CPI Report Shows Inflation Cooled to 3.2% in November | W
Consumer spending fell in October, according to new CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor tracking card transactions | C
Earnings Estimates Are Falling. These Two Companies Are Shouldering the Blame. | W
With Interest Rates Above 9%, Small Businesses Slam the Brakes | W
House Speaker Johnson predicts ‘bipartisan agreement’ on two-step government funding plan | C
Moody’s warning on the massive U.S. debt burden has turned into a nonevent | C
The Trillion-Dollar Win Hiding in Your Mortgage | W

Europe
Euro zone Q3 GDP shrinks, but employment rises | R
Europe primed for industrial reboot after key power price deals | R

China
Why Xi Can No Longer Brag About the Chinese Economy | W
Exclusive: China orders local governments to cut exposure to public-private projects as debt risks rise | R

Geopolitics & trade
Israel-Hamas war: Data shows human cost of conflict through the years | C

Industries & companies
Autos: Automakers’ drive to avoid China’s EV rare earth dominance gathers speed | R
Energy: Why oil companies Shell and BP are building solar on farmland | C
Retail: Home Depot earnings beat, but retailer offers a tepid outlook as sales slide | C

Technology
New Breed of Supercomputer Aims for the Two Quintillion Mark | W

Corporate finance
Chevron takeover of Hess resurrects multi-billion dollar tax shield | R

Beyond markets
Ultra-Processed Food: What We Know About the Potential Health Risks in American Diets | W