October 30 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Geopolitics, GDP & Inflation
We recently raised our subjective odds of a US recession before year-end 2024 from 25% to 35% mostly because the geopolitical risks continue to escalate. We see two potential scenarios that could result in a recession, but they don’t warrant raising our recession odds at this time. The US economy remains resilient; we review recent areas of strength. … Also: Further escalation of war in the Middle East could bring unsettling uncertainty to the stock market against a backdrop of well known headwinds and a troubled Chinese economy. … And: We review the latest inflation news. We don’t expect the Fed to surprise markets with a rate hike this week.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 23.
Markets
Where Is the Stock Market Headed? Big Money Pros Weigh In. | BR
Middle East War Could Cause Oil Price Shock, World Bank Warns | N
The Big Bond Market Event Wednesday Is at Treasury, Not the Fed | B
US ‘term premium’ shock may need T-bill surprise | R
Should You Buy Bonds Now? Yes, Here’s Why. | BR
Investors Are Worried About Government Spending. That’s No Reason to Avoid Bonds. | BR
Central banks
Higher Bond Yields Could End the Fed’s Historic Rate Rises | W
Fed’s Forecasts Look to Fairy Tales, One Economist Says | BR
Does Strong Growth Fuel Inflation? Fed Debates Whether Old Model Still Applies | W
Middle-Class Americans Are Rattled by Fed’s Fight Against Inflation | B
US
The Sales Pitch for an 8% Mortgage: Buy Now, Refinance Later—for Free | W
US second home sales slide in pandemic-era vacation hot spots | R
What ‘radically different’ wage growth forecast for 2024 means for you | C
Workers Are Doing Less Work for the Same Pay | W
Americans Can’t Stop Spending. Five Reasons Why. | W
Never Mind the 1%. Mini-Millionaires Are Where Wealth Is Growing Fastest. | W
Mental Health Issues Are Growing. They Could Hobble the Economy | BR
China
China’s Age of Malaise | The New Yorker
How Far Is China’s Slowdown Spreading? Ask a Dairy Farmer 6,000 Miles Away | W
For China, Bullying Apple Suppliers Could Backfire Badly | W
Europe
German economy shrinks slightly in Q3 | R
Geopolitics & trade
American power: indispensable or ineffective? | E
Israel-Hamas War News: Airstrike in Syria, Clashes in West bank, Gaza Ground War | B
Industries & companies
Autos: U.A.W. Says It Aims to Organize Nonunion Auto Plants | N
Autos: UAW-Ford deal includes $8.1B in investment, $5,000 ratification bonus | C
Autos: Detroit Is Paying Up to End the UAW Strike. Now Carmakers Will Live With the Costs. | W
Health Care: Insurers Spar With Biden Administration Over Coverage for Mental-Health Care | W
Pharma: Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro Drug Has Big Potential. How to Play the Stock. | BR
Tech: Meta Pauses Ads for Users Under 18 in Europe as It Rolls Out Subscriptions | W
Corporate finance
Realty Income to Buy Spirit Realty Capital in $9.3 Billion Deal | W
Artificial Intelligence
Biden unveils U.S. government’s first-ever AI executive order | C
Biden’s AI Executive Order Imposes Safety, Security Measures on Emerging Tech | B
Can ChatGPT Replace Your Financial Adviser? Not Yet. But Wait. | W
Crypto
The Hunt for Crypto’s Most Famous Fugitive. ‘Everyone Is Looking for Me.’ | W
