October 23 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: ‘Dangerous Times’
The Middle East crisis seems to be escalating into a regional war with US involvement, existential stakes, and global effects. We’re suspending our year-end target for the S&P 500 after it fell to its 200-day moving average on Friday in response to the geopolitical risks. We expect it to breach that level this week even if the bond yield declines. Yet geopolitical crises do tend to present long-term buying opportunities in stocks. The escalation of hostilities we expect prompts us to raise our odds of a US recession before year-end 2024 again, now to 35% from 30%. … Also: We update the bond market’s supply/demand situation, discuss the consumer-spending-employment spiral, and review the movie “Past Lives” (+).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 16.

Markets
Another Black Monday May Be Around the Corner | W
Why High Yields Make Bonds Better Investments Now | N
Morning Bid: Awaiting the bond-bashing abating | R
 
Central banks
Where’s the Recession? The Inverted Yield Curve Is Looking Like a Mistake. | BR
 
US
Housing market is painful, ugly, anxious with 8% high rate | C
Rising Home Prices Can Be Bad for Retirees | BR
This Real Estate Market Looks Distressed. Home Prices Are Already Falling. | BR
Food Is on Sale Again. You Might Still Have Sticker Shock. | W
America’s Downtowns Are Empty. Fixing Them Will Be Expensive. | W
House Republicans say the speaker race stalemate is “embarrassing” | C
 
Europe
As U.S. Debt Surges, Europe Brings Its Own Under Control | W
Marine Le Pen poses a greater threat than Giorgia Meloni | E
 
China
China Tightens Controls on Graphite. The Hunt Is On for New Supplies. | BR
 
Industries & companies
Airlines: Airlines, Regulators Weigh More Cockpit Safety Alerts After Close Calls on Runways | W
Autos: Buy BMW Stock. Shares Could Rise 41% on Its Stealth EV Program. | BR
Banks: Why America’s banks need more capital | E
Media: Taylor Swift Concert Film and ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ Top Weekend Box Office | W
Retail: How Walmart became America’s largest grocer | C
 
Geopolitics & trade
Israel Intensifies Bombing on Multiple Fronts, Prepares for Gaza Ground Operation | W
Video Analysis Shows Gaza Hospital Hit By Failed Rocket Meant for Israel | W
Only America can save Israel and Gaza from greater catastrophe | E
Israel’s four unpalatable options for Gaza’s long-term future | E
Russia’s Gazprom to supply extra gas to Hungary and China this year | R
Xi Jinping wants to be loved by the global south | E

Corporate finance
Paramount, Shari Redstone might have missed deal window | C

Artificial Intelligence
How Does AI ‘Think’? We Are Only Starting to Understand That | W
How to make Britain’s health service AI-ready | E

Climate
The unspoken environmental impact of meat: Hogging all the land. | Vox