October 4 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Debt Crisis Scenario
Are we headed for a debt crisis? Demand for Treasury bonds has fallen in the wake of Fitch’s federal debt downgrade at a time when supply has been escalating. Rising yields in response may clear the Treasury market but also reduce both demand for and supply of the private sector’s credit. A credit crunch and recession could ensue, possibly setting off a deflationary debt default spiral. … But that worst-case scenario isn’t inevitable. The Treasury bond yield may not soar above 5.00%, as increasingly feared, given our expectations for “immaculate disinflation” (i.e., without an economy-wide recession) and slowing real GDP growth. … Also: Joe’s analysis suggests the S&P 500’s Q3 earnings may hit a record high.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 2.
Markets
Investors Eye Profit Rebound After Yearlong Earnings Recession | B
Treasury yields retreat from 16-year highs after weaker-than-expected ADP jobs report | C
World’s biggest bond markets hit by relentless selling | R
Bond Selloff Threatens Hopes for Economy’s Soft Landing | W
Bond yields could race through 5%, market forecaster Jim Bianco warns | C
Emerging Market Bond Yields Are Sending a Worrying Signal | B
Oil falls over $1 on demand fears, Saudi confirms cuts to year-end | R
The World’s Dollar Addiction Is Hard to Kick | W
US
Mortgage demand falls to lowest level since 1996 | C
US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Tops 7.5% for First Time Since 2000 | B
Private payrolls rose 89,000 in September, much fewer than expected, ADP says | C
Predictable disasters: Big-spender states offer fewer benefits than their more prudent peers | Washington Times
What Happens Next in the House Speaker Race | W
Japan
Japan’s Top FX Official Declines to Say If Intervened on Yen (JPY USD) | B
Japan Is the Most Exciting Market in the World | W
Geopolitics & trade
China Is Suffering a Brain Drain. The U.S. Isn’t Exploiting It. | N
Industries & companies
Consumer Discretionary: Temu, Called the Next Amazon Killer, Is Really Just a Dollar Store Killer | B
Health Care: Health care workers strike at Kaiser Permanente | C
Logistics: Uber will now pick up your UPS, FedEx and USPS packages | C
Pharma: Moderna combination Covid, flu vaccine shows positive data | C
Corporate finance
Amazon is being sued by the Biden administration’s FTC over antitrust violations | Vox
Climate
Homeowners Flock to Last-Resort Insurance Policies | W
Artificial Intelligence
SoftBank’s Son Says Artificial General Intelligence Will Soon Surpass Humans | W
Beyond markets
Opinion | Michael Lewis: Inside Sam Bankman-Fried’s last year in crypto | WP
