October 3 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Bond Vigilantes Are On The March
What moves the bond market has changed recently and disconcertingly. The 10-year Treasury bond yield’s recent action—and nonreaction to economic news that typically moves it—suggest a shift in bond investors’ focus from what monetary policymakers may do to rising alarm about what fiscal policymakers are doing. The worry is that the escalating federal budget deficit will create more supply of bonds than demand can meet, requiring higher yields to clear the market; that worry has been the Bond Vigilantes’ entrance cue. Now the Wild Bunch seems to have taken full control of the Treasury market; we’re watching to see if the high-yield market is next. We are still counting on moderating inflation to stop the beatings in the bond market.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 2.

Markets
Dow Falls 500 Points; Meta, VinFast Stocks in Focus | W
Wall St dives as jobs data fans rate worries, Treasury yields spike | R
U.S. Treasury yields: investors weigh economic outlook | C
Why a rout in government bonds is worrying | R

Central banks
The Fed Seeks to Up Its Influencer Status | W
Steady Economy Could Warrant November Rate Hike, Fed’s Mester Says | B
When Will the Fed Stop Raising Rates? That’s the Trillion-Dollar Question for Bond Investors | W

US
Mortgage rate heads toward 8% | C
Wall Street Thinks America’s Homes Are Overvalued | W
August job openings top 9.6 million, more than expected as labor market remains strong | C
Americans’ Growing Reluctance to Quit Their Jobs, in Five Charts | W
Despite Economic Risks, Companies Are Hanging On to the Workers They Have | W
Millennials on Better Track for Retirement Than Boomers and Gen X | W

Geopolitics & trade
Dalio says China-US relations are ‘on the brink of red lines’ | R

Industries & companies
Consumer discretionary: Amazon Used Secret ‘Project Nessie’ Algorithm to Raise Prices | W
Media: Netflix plans to raise prices after actors’ strike ends | W | R

Artificial Intelligence
Hedge Funds Struggle to Beat the Market With AI Stock Bets | B
CIOs Feel Heat From CEOs on Generative AI | W
AI and job losses: How worried should we be? | FO