September 25 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Money & Credit: Debatable Points
Some economic prognosticators still believe that a credit crunch and recession are just around the bend. Today, we question two of their main arguments: We don’t believe that falling M2 presages anemic GDP growth; contrary to conventional wisdom, there is no reliable correlation between the two. And we can’t see consumers slamming the brakes on their spending and hobbling the economy; they don’t need to with their net worth at a record high and real disposable income growing. … Also: The inverted yield curve correctly predicted the banking crisis earlier this year, but there has been no credit crunch so far; we are monitoring commercial bank lending stats closely. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Golda (+ + +).
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on September 18.
Markets
Stock Market Drop Worst Since March. Is It September or Something More Sinister? | BR
Why Are Tech Stocks Down? Bond Yields Are Up | W
Treasuries Extend Selloff, Pushing 10-Year Yield to 16-Year High | B
Higher Rates May Be Here for Awhile. | BR
Wall Street Is Hoping $100 Oil Ain’t What It Used to Be | W
Central banks
Why traders aren’t buying the Fed’s ‘higher-for-longer’ vision | R
Wall Street and the Fed Are Both Wrong on Interest Rates | W
Does China’s fear of floating exceed its fear of deflation? | E
ECB de Galhau: betting on a rate cut now is premature | C
US
U.S. Economy Could Withstand One Shock, but Four at Once? | W
Inflation Will Continue Until Morale Improves | W
Why America Has a Long-Term Labor Crisis, in Six Charts | W
Europe
German Auto Makers Are Pouring $406 Billion Into EVs. The Race Is On. | BR
China
China’s Economy Is Bad, but Not as Bad as Some Think | BR
China property stocks tumble amid Evergrande debt restructuring roadblock | C
Geopolitics & trade
What Asia’s economic revolution means for the world | E
China-EU relationship is at a crossroads, trade chief Dombrovskis said | C
China’s claim to the South China Sea gets even odder | E
Huawei’s New Gadgets Reveal Hidden Teeth in China Tech Resistance | W
If India ordered a murder in Canada, there must be consequences | E
Industries & companies
Airlines: Air Travel Is Still Recovering. Buy AAR Stock. | BR
Banks: Bank Stocks Are Stronger Than You Think. It’s Time to Get In. | BR
Commercial Real Estate: Even a Booming Economy Can’t Save Atlanta’s Office Market | W
Commercial Real Estate: After latest round of RTO mandates, offices remain only half full | C
Manufacturing: Lego’s Latest Effort to Avoid Oil-Based Plastic Hits Brick Wall | W
Materials: Alcoa Names William Oplinger as CEO, Succeeding Roy Harvey | B
Media: Writers strike: WGA reaches tentative deal with studios | C
Pharma: How Wegovy, Ozempic, and Weight-Loss Drugs Could Break the Healthcare System | BR
Artificial Intelligence
ChatGPT mania may be cooling, but a serious new industry is taking shape | E
Amazon to invest up to $4 billion in Anthropic, a rival to ChatGPT developer OpenAI | C
Climate
Climate change is coming for America’s property market | E
Beyond markets
How Much Cybersecurity Expertise Do Boards Really Have? | W
