September 05 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Powell’s Ideal Economy
What would it take for the Fed to abandon its hawkish stance? Three things, suggested Fed Chair Powell’s recent Jackson Hole speech: core PCED inflation dropping closer to 2% y/y, demand for labor dropping closer to the supply of it, and consumer spending cooling off a bit. All that can happen without a recession, as it has twice before in recent history, and the latest data on all three parameters suggest progress in the right direction. … Today, we review the data showing rebalancing of the labor market, slowing consumer spending, and moderating inflation. … Dr. Ed also reviews “The Crowded Room” (+).
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 27.
Markets
Stock Traders Shrug Off High Rates With S&P 500 Hitting Best Week Since June | B
Where Is the Stock Market Headed? What to Expect the Rest of This Year. | BR
Nvidia, Tesla, Apple Stocks All Had a Great Week. Bring On September. | BR
Low US heating oil stockpiles could cause winter sticker shocks | R
China Rebound Leads Stocks Higher. Goldman Says there is More Stimulus to Come. | BR
US
Do Higher Deficits Cause Inflation? Not This Year | W
Why Consumer Confidence Is Dropping When the Economy Looks So Strong | BR
How can American house prices still be rising? | E
Biden 2024 election poll: Trump, economy, old age concerns, inflation | C
Europe
Europe’s economy looks to be heading for trouble | E
Germany is the ‘sick man of Europe’ — and it’s causing a shift to the right, top economist says | C
Germany’s economic model is sputtering. So are its banks | E
Business leaders worry about the rise of the AfD | E
Italy’s tax on bank profit continues to prove controversial | C
China
China’s shadow-banking industry threatens its financial system | E
China’s urban youth unemployment crisis | C
India
India Made It to the Moon. That Doesn’t Make It a Top Industrial Power. | BR
Geopolitics & trade
How to stop a three-way nuclear arms-race | E
Xi to skip G20 summit in India, China to send Li instead | C
Chinese Gate-Crashers at U.S. Bases Spark Espionage Concerns | W
Industries & companies
Autos: American cities are suing car manufacturers over auto theft. They have a case | E
Media: Barbie Is a Hit, but It Won’t Solve the Challenges at Warner Bros. Discovery | BR
Pharma: America’s new drug-pricing rules have perverse consequences | E
Corporate finance
Where’s the 2023 Recession? The Answer Lies Partly in Changes in Corporate Debt. | BR
How Softbank’s Disappointing Bet On Arm Could Turn Into the Biggest IPO of the Year | W
Exclusive: Barclays explores sale of stake in $2.5 billion UK payments unit – sources | R
Artificial Intelligence
How Worried Should We Be About AI’s Threat to Humanity? Even Tech Leaders Can’t Agree. | W
How worried should you be about AI disrupting elections? | E
Climate
COP28: ADNOC to spend over $1 billion a month on oil and gas for years, Global Witness says | C
Japan is preparing for a massive earthquake | E
