August 25 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Dueling Composite Indicators
The Conference Board’s trio of economic indicators flashed conflicting messages in their recently reported July readings. The leading indicator says a recession is overdue. The coincident indicator keeps scaling new heights. The lagging indicator has been peaking, as it does after recessions are almost over! Today, we explore explanations in the specific components that each index measures. … Also: The CPI services inflation rate significantly lags the CPI goods inflation rate. Services’ inclusion of rent is much of the reason. … And: Q2 earnings reporting season is nearly over. Joe analyzes the near-final data on Q2 earnings growth and the encouraging estimate revisions trend.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 21.
Markets
Why the Stock Market’s Summer Doldrums Are Not a Problem | N
Treasury yields rise after Powell signals more rate hikes ahead | C
US 5-Year Real Yield at Highest Since 2008 After Powell Speaks | B
Bond Market Flashes Warning as US Budget Deficit Surges | B
VinFast, Arm and Other Index Orphans Miss Out on Billions From Passive Investors | W
Central banks
Fed Chair Powell calls inflation ‘too high’ and warns that ‘we are prepared to raise rates further’ | C
Fed’s Powell says higher rates may be needed, will move ‘carefully’ | R
Powell Says Fed Will ‘Proceed Carefully’ on Any Further Rate Rises | W
Powell Signals Fed Will Raise Rates If Needed, Keep Them High | B
Powell’s Message in Jackson Hole: The Inflation Fight Isn’t Over | N
US
U.S. Consumers Are Showing Signs of Stress, Retailers Say | N
Mortgage Rates Hit 7.23%, Highest Since 2001 | W
Rising Insurance Costs Start to Hit Home Sales | W
Floods, Droughts, and Wildfires: People Keep Moving to Trouble Zones | BR
A D.C. Suburb Finds a Creative Answer to America’s Housing Shortage | N
Household debt is at an all-time high, but 2008 was still worse | C
Wealth disparity in the US | The Week
China
China Pays for Economic Mismanagement | W
A Crisis of Confidence Is Gripping China’s Economy | N
China Real Estate Market Crisis Is Another Mess for Xi Jinping | B
Nearly 2 million excess deaths followed China’s sudden end of COVID curbs, study says | R
Industries & companies
Autos: UAW strike: Workers overwhelmingly vote to authorize work stoppage | C
Tech: A Startup in the New Jersey Suburbs Is Battling the Giants of Silicon Valley | W
Climate
Maui Fire: How ‘Risk Blindness’ Made It Worse | B
Artificial Intelligence
Alibaba new AI model can understand images, more complex conversations | C
Beyond markets
Trump Posts on X (Twitter) With Mugshot After Fulton County Jail Booking | B
Welcome Back to School. Your Teacher is 2,000 Miles Away. | W
Wealthy People Are Getting Full-Body Scans. Early Detection or Unnecessary? | W
Covid vaccines: CDC expects new shots to be available in mid-September | C
