August 22 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Bond Yields Returning To Normal
My bond market outlook over the past 40 years was misrepresented in a Bloomberg story on Friday. To set the record straight, I was bullish on bonds from 1983-2021, not regularly predicting a return of the Bond Vigilantes as reported. … But they are back now, driving up the 10-year Treasury bond yield on concerns about the mounting federal deficit. The Bond Vigilantes still care about inflation (which is moderating), but they also care more about supply and demand than in the past, with the federal government straining both (via fiscal spending and QT). … What’s next? We think the Treasury bond yield is returning to normal around 4.50%-4.75% as the economy returns to its Old Normal.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 21.
Markets
Fed, Powell to Meet at Jackson Hole as High Rates Hurt Stocks, Bonds | B
Stocks Climb Despite Rise in Treasury Yields | W
From stocks to bitcoin, soaring US yields cast shadow over risk asset rally | R
Banks Loading Up on Cash Fuel a Record $2 Trillion Bond Spree | B
AI Funds Are Missing Out on the AI Stock Boom | W
Central banks
How Hard Should the Fed Squeeze to Reach 2% Inflation? | W
Why the Era of Historically Low Interest Rates Could Be Over | W
US I
Job Market’s So Wobbly Even Head Hunters Can’t Forecast Recovery | B
Half a Million US Jobs at Risk of Vanishing in Payroll Revision | B
The Worker Bidding War Is Over. Companies Are Cutting Pay for New Hires. | W
Opinion | College Degrees Still Matter In the Job Market | N
US II
With soft landing seen for U.S. economy, 3 financial risks to watch | C
The Upheaval at America’s Disappearing Nursing Homes, in Charts | W
Goodbye Bathtub and Living Room. America’s Homes Are Shrinking. | W
The Rising Trend in Private Education: Teeny, Tiny Schools | W
US III
Donald Trump to Surrender in Georgia Election Case on Thursday | W
Majority of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers believe Trump won the 2020 election | C
2024 Republican Candidates Battle With Trump For Money, Donors: The Numbers | B
China
China’s Economy Has Four Big Structural Forces Holding It Back | B
China’s Property Crisis: Why It’s So Hard for Beijing to Fix | N
Geopolitics & trade
Could U.S. Toughness on Chinese Business Have Unintended Consequences? | N
America’s Tech Giants Rush to Comply With New Curbs in Europe | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: Airline Close Calls Happen Far More Often Than Previously Known | N
Autos: The Electric-Vehicle Bubble Starts to Deflate | W
Financials: S&P downgrades multiple U.S. banks citing ‘tough’ operating conditions | C
Financials: Goldman Sachs: Is David Solomon on his way out? The CEO whisperer weighs in | CNN Business
Media: Instagram, Twitter and TikTok Upheavals Are Helping LinkedIn | B
Media: Meta’s Threads is now available on the web, as Zuckerberg takes on X | C
Tech: Apple’s anti-competitive tactics must be stopped | The Hill
Artificial Intelligence
Can AI Replace My Job? Almost Half of Americans Say Yes in New Survey | B
Unleashing possibilities, ignoring risks: Why we need tools to manage AI’s impact on jobs | Brookings
Money Scams: Deepfakes, AI Will Drive $10 Trillion in Financial Fraud and Crime | B
Corporate finance
The Arm IPO Will Test Investors’ AI Conviction | W
Climate
Germany set to miss net zero by 2045 target as climate efforts falter | R
How to Write a Climate Thriller Fit for Page or Screen | B
