August 15 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The 1970s All Over Again?
The current alignment of economic forces—resulting in a growing economy with low unemployment, falling inflation, and stimulative fiscal policy balancing out restrictive monetary policy—seems too good to be sustainable. Is stagflation what comes next? … We doubt it. We don’t see inflation turning back up and economic growth slowing down as the decade progresses. We continue to place greater odds on “The Roaring 2020s” scenario (65% odds), a reboot of productivity driven growth à la the 1920s, than we do on “The Great Inflation 2.0” scenario (35%), a replay of the 1970s/early 1980s stagflation story.
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 14.
Markets
Stocks Slip as Traders Lose Faith in Rate-Cut Bets | B
Global
The Economic Losers in the New World Order | W
Central banks
Surprise China Rate Cut Only Highlights Tough Choices Facing Xi Jinping | B
China is grappling with a ‘confidence crisis’, says economist | C
Fed Interest Rate Debate Changing as Inflation Pressures Cool | B
US I
Retail sales increased 0.7% in July, better than expected as consumer spending is holding up | C
US Retail Sales Exceeded Forecast in July, Showing Resilient Consumer | B
Shoppers Boost Retail Sales for Fourth Straight Month | W
Opinion | How Economists Missed the Big Disinflation | N
US II
Homebuilder sentiment drops sharply, as mortgage rates surge | C
More Americans Are Ending Up Homeless—at a Record Rate | W
Democrats can end poverty in America by fixing this one program | The Hill
China
China Slashes Rates, Suspends Youth Jobless Data as Economy Signals Sharper Downturn | W
How much worse can China’s economic slowdown get? | R
China Turns to Well-Honed Playbook: Cut Rates, Hide Data | W
China Suspends Youth Unemployment Report | N
Country Garden: Why Its Financial Crisis Poses a Risk to China | N
Japan
Roaring Back From Pandemic, Japan’s Economy Grows at 6% Rate | N
Japan’s Economy Grows at 6% Pace in Second Quarter | W
Geopolitics & trade
China Says Taiwanese Presidential Frontrunner Brings Risk of War | B
China Will Hunt You Down | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Tesla launches cheaper versions of Model X and Model S electric cars | C
Banks: Big Banks Are Supposed to Fail Without Causing Panics. Is That Even Possible? | W
Banks: Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of banks | C
Media: Streamflation Is Here and Media Companies Are Betting You’ll Pay Up | W
Tech: Why the White House Went to Wall Street to Revive the U.S. Chips Industry | W
Corporate finance
Vietnamese EV maker VinFast debuts on the Nasdaq via SPAC merger | C
Artificial Intelligence
A.I. Can’t Build a High-Rise, but It Can Speed Up the Job | N
Window-washing robots are working on Manhattan skyscrapers | C
Crypto
A Crypto Mystery: Who Controls This Fast-Growing Stablecoin? | W
Climate
Don’t expect the greens’ 1,600% mistake on ocean plastic to get them to change course | P
