August 14 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Disinversion
Is the federal budget deficit getting too big for the bond market to fund without yields moving higher? That seems to be a growing concern in both the bond and stock markets. In the past, bond yields were determined mostly by the Fed’s response to inflation, which is moderating; supply and demand didn’t matter much, but they may now. Today, we examine why this period of deficit widening is different than past ones. … We also examine two scenarios that could unwind the inversion of the yield curve—one bullish, one bearish—and recap data supporting both. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “The Man Who Saved the Game” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 7.
Markets
Stock Rally Stalls Despite Better-Than-Expected Earnings Season | W
30-Year Inflation-Protected Treasuries (TIPS) Yield on Cusp of Exceeding 2% | B
China Stocks Close to Erasing Politburo Gains Amid Economic Woes | B
Bill Gross Slams Stock and Bond Bulls, Says Markets ‘Overvalued’ | B
Oil Edges Lower After Seven-Week Rally Driven by Tighter Market
Central banks
Fed Will Need to Wait Until 2024 to See If US Recession Can Be Avoided | B
Goldman Pencils In First Fed Rate Cut for Second Quarter of 2024 | B
US
After Pulling Inflation Down, Gasoline and Food Threaten to Nudge It Up | W
What Wall Street’s Top Recession Gauge Is Saying Now | W
Georgia Is Ground Zero for Trump Exhaustion as Another Indictment Looms | W
Joybird 2023 report: Best states in the U.S. for flipping homes | C
Restaurants and Supermarkets Are Brawling Over Your Dollar | W
Geopolitics & trade
How U.S. and China Are Breaking Up, in Charts | W
China criticizes visit of ‘troublemaker’ Taiwan VP to US | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: Airlines add premium, first class seats as travelers treat themselves | C
Technology
Amazon is racing to catch up in generative A.I. with custom AWS chips | C
Corporate finance
SoftBank is in talks to buy Vision Fund’s 25% stake in Arm, sources say | C
Beyond markets
Zuckerberg dismisses Musk for avoiding cage fight: ‘It’s time to move on’ | C
