July 31 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Godot Recession
We’re raising the subjective odds we assign to the no-landing economic scenario through year-end 2024 (by 10% to 85%) and lowering our odds of a hard landing (by 10% to 15%). But we’re keeping close tabs on hard-landers’ latest arguments. Today, we summarize the main ones and give our rebuttals. … The biggest issue dividing the two camps is the outlook for consumer spending, representing over two-thirds of nominal GDP. If consumers don’t pull back on spending once their pandemic-related savings run out, an economy-wide recession would be a stretch. We say they won’t retrench, having other sources of purchasing power. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Barbie” (+).
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 24.
Markets
The Benefit of Owning Stocks Over Bonds Keeps Shrinking | W
Central banks
Why the Drivers of Lower Inflation Matter | W
Clock on the Fed’s ‘soft landing’ may already be ticking | R
Get Real Pundits, the Fed Can’t Take Away the ‘Punch Bowl’ | FO
US
61% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck even as inflation cools | C
Local Malls, Stuck in ‘Death Spiral,’ Plunge in Value | W
Biden’s industrial policies need private investors to supercharge the economy | The Hill
More state child tax credits are expanding cash assistance for families | Vox
How to apply for Biden’s new SAVE student loan repayment plan | C
There’s Money to Be Made From Your Midlife Crisis | W
Europe
Europe Returns to Timid Growth, but Bigger Headwinds Loom | W
China
While Everyone Else Fights Inflation, China Deflation Fears Deepen | W
Words only go so far: Investors want property fixed before buying China | R
In Xi Jinping’s China, central planners rule | E
India
India’s Economy Is Booming, and There’s More to Come. Here’s How to Invest. | BR
Geopolitics & trade
China curbs exports of drone equipment amid U.S. tech tension | R
Industries & companies
Autos: How EVs are upending the 100-year-old auto supply chain | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon says it’s delivering more packages in one day or less after overhauling delivery network | C
Media: Buy Disney Stock. The Magic Will Return. | BR
Media: X, Formerly Known as Twitter, Reinstates Kanye West’s Account | W
Tech: Apple’s iPhone 15 Pro will have USB-C charging, titanium edges: Report | C
Technology
The Robots We Were Afraid of Are Already Here | N
A.I. could affect many white-collar, high-paid jobs | C
Hollywood’s Fight: How Much AI Is Too Much? | W
Beyond markets
How to run a business in a dangerous and disorderly world | E
Covid vaccine: What uptake of new shots could look like | C
