July 17 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Transitory Inflation Sets Stage For Immaculate Disinflation
Big banks’ top managements sounded relatively sanguine about the economy as they reported solid Q2 results, though JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon hasn’t totally abandoned the recession storyline that spooked investors a year ago. … There are two versions of the bearish economic script now, one seeing recession at the hands of savings-drained consumers and other seeing recession at the hands of the inflation-fighting Fed. We counter these narratives with data on consumers and liquidity and by making our case for “immaculate disinflation,” the notion that disinflation doesn’t require a recession.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 10.

Markets
Emerging Market Funds That Exclude China Are Beating the Index | BR
Buy Freeport-McMoRan Stock. Copper Is the Future. | BR

Global
A Buoyant Global Economy Is Starting to Sag | W

US I
Companies and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Earnings Season | W
Quirky Economic Indicators Suggest a Recession is Coming | BR
Inflation Under Control? Consumers Don’t Think So. | BR
U.S. Consumer Spending May Hold Up Even in the Face of Inflation and Recession Threats | BR
Pay Raises Are Finally Beating Inflation After Two Years of Falling Behind | W

US II
How MAGA Republicans plan to make Donald Trump’s second term count | E
The American left and right loathe each other and agree on a lot | E
Why working families aren’t sold on Bidenomics | The Hill

Europe
Europeans Are Becoming Poorer. ‘Yes, We’re All Worse Off.’ | W

China
China’s frail Q2 GDP growth raises urgency for more policy support | R
China reports Q2 GDP miss, another record high in youth unemployment | C
China’s Economy Barely Grows as Recovery Fades | W
China’s Fading Recovery Tests Policy Makers’ Economic Playbook | W
China is obsessed with food security. Climate change will challenge it | E
The Chinese are working more hours than ever | E
Can EVs and Solar Panels Save China’s Economy? | W

Geopolitics & trade
Russia axes landmark Ukraine grain deal just hours before deadline | C
Black Sea grain deal: Russia refuses to renew and says no guarantees for ships now  | R

Industries & companies
Autos: How to Turn Tesla Into a Dividend-Paying Stock | BR
Media: Media industry turmoil: Strikes, streaming losses, ad slump | C
Media: Elon Musk says Twitter cash flow remains negative with ‘heavy debt’ | C
Media: ‘Barbenheimer’ Has Moviegoers Buzzing. How to Play the Mash-Up. | BR
Pharma: John Schoonbee on why new drugs, while helpful, are no panacea for obesity | E
Pharma: Big pharma is warming to the potential of AI | E
Real Estate: The Market Hates Real Estate Stocks. It’s Time to Buy. | BR
Restaurants: Chipotle Gets Some Help in the Kitchen—a Robot | BR
Retail: Buy Walmart Stock. It’s Quietly Growing Into a Retail Tech Titan. | BR
Tech: Microsoft’s Win in the Activision Case Could Spur a Merger Revival | BR

Climate
Climate: Italy warns of extreme heat peak as temperatures soar | C

Technology
Your employer is (probably) unprepared for artificial intelligence | E
The AI Bubble Isn’t Big Enough. Why There’s More Upside Ahead for Big Tech. | BR
AI will be the ‘biggest bubble of all time’: Stability AI CEO | C
Hiltzik: AI hype is as old as AI itself | Los Angeles Times
How do AI systems like ChatGPT work? There’s a lot scientists don’t know. | Vox
How AI image-generators work | E
In Asia data flows are part of a new great game | E

Beyond markets
Why has Vietnam banned the “Barbie” film? | E