July 12 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Sunny Or Cloudy Earnings Season?
We see reasons for optimism that upcoming inflation releases and Q2 earnings news will please stock investors. We expect to learn that inflation continues to moderate in response to monetary policy that’s restrictive enough. And we expect Q2 earnings to be less bad than analysts are predicting. That’s because analysts’ estimates usually are too pessimistic at the start of reporting seasons and because the macroeconomic backdrop likely provided good revenue and earnings support. We look at some of the macro influences on specific industries. … And: Joe examines analysts’ ever-changing earnings growth expectations through various lenses—by index, sector, and in the context of historical trends.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 10.

Markets
Nasdaq Rebalance: Why the Big Six Like Nvidia and Apple Needed Kneecapping | B
Why U.S. Equities Have Beaten International Equities Since 2010 | Morningstar
China’s Reopening Trade Is Fizzling Out | W
Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund Reports $11 Billion Investment Loss for 2022 | B

Commodities
Energy sector driving demand for lithium, other critical minerals: IEA | C
Big Automakers Grab $1 Billion Deal for Urgently Needed Battery Metals | W

US
CPI Report Shows Inflation Eased to 3% in June | W
Inflation Is Likely Lowest Since Early 2021—but Still Too Hot for Fed | W
Measure It Differently, and Inflation Is Behind Us | W
It’s All About Housing: Rental Inflation and Its Measurement Play an Outsize Role in the Consumer Price Index | Center for American Progress
Credit Scores Went Up in Pandemic. Now, More Borrowers Are Slipping. | W
Bidenomics: Chinese Capitalism With American Characteristics | W

Geopolitics & trade
EU and U.S. agree new data sharing deal: What is it and why it matters | C
Despite Yellen, U.S.-China Decoupling Has Momentum of Its Own | W
U.S. Government Emails Hacked in Suspected Chinese Espionage Campaign | W
Ukraine’s Zelensky Tells NATO Not to Replace Membership With Security Guarantees | W
North Korea Launches Suspected Long-Range Missile | W
Japan Is Ready and Able to Maintain U.S. Naval Vessels | W

Industries & companies
Autos: UAW opens auto contract negotiating with GM, Ford and Stellantis | C
Consumer: Amazon Prime Day is a made-up holiday to trick people into shopping | Vox
Financials: Goldman Breaks Own Rule to Flag Results Much Worse Than Rivals | B
Media: Google, Meta got data from tax prep firms, lawmakers call for probe | C
Tech: Lina Khan Is Taking on the World’s Biggest Tech Companies—and Losing | W

Corporate finance
Microsoft Can Close Its $75 Billion Buy of Activision Blizzard, Judge Rules | W
Illumina hit with record EU fine over Grail deal | C
Why Private Equity Is Chasing Plumbers and Lumber Yards | B

Technology
Chipotle tests robot to prepare avocados for guacamole | C
ChatGPT, AI Boom Makes Political Dirty Tricks Easier and Cheaper | B

Climate
Antarctic sea ice has been at record low levels for months | C

Beyond markets
Wall Street Is Fighting the Non-Compete Ban in New York | B
Shopify Shames Workers With a $1,600 Price Tag for Pointless Meetings | B
America Has Shortage of Key Lead-Poisoning Drug | W
AT&T and Verizon Knew About Toxic Lead Cables—and Did Little | W