July 10 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Fully Employed
June’s newly released employment report gives us clues about June’s not-yet-released CEI, and the CEI closely tracks GDP. So from the employment report, we extrapolate that June’s CEI will likely confirm that real GDP grew around 2.0% y/y during Q2, close to the Atlanta Fed’s current prediction (2.1%). A recession is still possible if the Fed keeps tightening, but we see just a 25% chance of a hard landing. … Also: A look at our resilient labor market. Wage inflation continues to moderate, but wages adjusted for inflation have resumed their growth trend—suggesting revived productivity growth. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “The Diplomat” (+ +).
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 3.
Markets
A Soft Corporate-Earnings Season Poses Next Test for Stock Market Rally | W
14 Charts On New Bull Market for Stocks, Mixed Returns for Bonds in Q2 | Morningstar
Recharged Bond Rout Unnerves Investors | W
Central banks
Column: When the Fed stops, keep calm and carry on buying stocks | R
Jobs Report Keeps Fed on Track to Raise Rates in July | W
French central bank head warns against raising ECB inflation target | R
Commodities
Copper is unexpectedly getting cheaper | E
The world needs more battery metals. Time to mine the seabed | E
Column: Europe’s gas storage is filling too fast | R
Global
Economists draw swords over how to fix inflation | E
Can anything pop the everything bubble? | E
“Greedflation” is a nonsense idea | E
US
Last Mile of the Inflation Fight Will Be the Hardest | W
Biden’s Dilemma: Fight Inflation or Protect Unions? | W
China
China sets wide-ranging rules for $2.9 trillion in private investment funds | R
A Trillion-Dollar Opportunity: China’s Pivot to the Middle East Set to Fuel Investment Boom | W
China’s Communist Party is tightening its grip in businesses | E
Geopolitics & trade
China’s message to the global south | E
Why China should be friendlier to its neighbours | E
Janet Yellen comments on U.S.-China relations during Beijing visit | C
Biden is heading to Europe. A king and a war are on his agenda | C
Industries & companies
Autos: Unsold electric cars are piling up on dealer lots | AXIOS
Banks: Banks’ Newest Fed Headache: Nonstop Instant Payments | W
Consumer: Shein Takes on Amazon in the Business of Selling Everything | W
Media: Meta’s Twitter rival Threads explodes to 70 million signups | C
Climate
Global temperatures have broken records three times in a week | E
Hottest Days Ever? Don’t Believe It | W
America Is Wrapped in Miles of Toxic Lead Cables | W
Beyond markets
Elon Musk Is Making Mark Zuckerberg Seem Cool Again | W
