July 08 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Getting Harder To Be A Contrarian
Since last summer, when conventional wisdom held that a recession was coming, we argued that one was already going on, rolling through the economy in stages instead of walloping it all at once. Now that the consensus view is moving toward no recession coming after all, and relieved investors have driven the stock market higher, our contrarian instincts are on high alert. The no-show recession could still show up, and we are on the lookout. … Today we revisit the main reasons that some respected observers still expect a recession, and we weigh in on each. The upshot: We’re not changing our (recently raised) subjective odds of a soft landing, at 75%, for now.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 3.

Markets
Stocks tumble on Friday, notching weekly losses, as traders’ rate hike fears return
The Best Stock-Fund Managers Over the Past Year? Think AI and Big Tech | W
 
Central banks
Fed’s Goolsbee sees ‘golden path’ to lower inflation without a recession | C
Wage Gains, Low Unemployment Keep Pressure on Fed; Hiring Slowed in June, Jobs Report Shows | W

US
Americans fear a recession may be as severe as 2008. Experts disagree | C
Cracks Open in the Labor Market | W
Small businesses look for teen workers in competitive summer hiring | C

Industries & companies
Media: Meta’s Twitter rival Threads explodes to 70 million signups | C
Media: Zombie Twitter Has Arrived | MSN
Pharma: Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi sales may be slow at first: Analysts | C

Technology
Robots say they won’t steal jobs, rebel against humans | R
How will AI impact my job | QZ
Elon Musk’s SpaceX Now Has a ‘De Facto’ Monopoly on Rocket Launches | W

Beyond markets
Investors Bought Nearly $1 Billion in Land Near a California Air Force Base. Officials Want to Know Who Exactly They Are. | W
‘How Could I Feel Safe?’ Japan’s Dumping of Radioactive Fukushima Water Stirs Fear, Anger | W
Elon Musk’s SpaceX Now Has a ‘De Facto’ Monopoly on Rocket Launches | W