July 06 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Getting Harder To Be A Contrarian
Since last summer, when conventional wisdom held that a recession was coming, we argued that one was already going on, rolling through the economy in stages instead of walloping it all at once. Now that the consensus view is moving toward no recession coming after all, and relieved investors have driven the stock market higher, our contrarian instincts are on high alert. The no-show recession could still show up, and we are on the lookout. … Today we revisit the main reasons that some respected observers still expect a recession, and we weigh in on each. The upshot: We’re not changing our (recently raised) subjective odds of a soft landing, at 75%, for now.
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 3.
Markets
Stocks, Bonds Tumble on ‘Off the Charts’ Jobs Data: Markets Wrap | B
Commodities
Column: Europe adds aluminum to its critical raw materials list | R
Factbox: Companies respond to China’s curbs on gallium and germanium exports | R
Column: China imports more LNG but not enough to drive spot prices | R
Central Banks
Fed’s Lorie Logan Says More Rate Hikes Needed to Slow Hot Inflation | B
Some Fed Officials Supported Raising Rates in June | W
US I
US Job Market Shows Fresh Strength With ADP, Jobless Claims Data | B
ADP jobs report: Private sector added 497,000 workers in June | C
US layoffs fall to seven-month low in June, report says | R
US Job Market Clues Seen in Drop in Employee Hours Worked | B
Americans Have Quit Quitting Their Jobs | W
US II
U.S. Is Top Investment Destination Despite Falling Inflows | W
Mortgage demand drops as interest rates rise | C
As Greedflation Starts to Fade, Wageflation Creeps In | W
Bidenomics Spin vs. Economic Reality: Americans Poorer Today | National Review
Opinion | America Is Living on Borrowed Money | N
Europe
BOE could hike interest rates to 7% in ‘some scenarios’: JPMorgan | C
Geopolitics & trade
U.S.’s Yellen begins China visit with both sides locked in confrontation | R
U.S. and China Look to Repair Ties, Again | W
US Needs to Solve Its Skilled Worker Shortage to Compete With China | B
Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin Is in Russia Now, Belarus Leader Lukashenko Says | B
Russia Gas Giant Warns of Sanctions Risk for Ukraine Energy Firm | B
Industries & companies
Banks: Everyone Wants Interest on Their Deposits. That’s Bad for Main Street Banks. | W
Media: What Are Threads on Instagram: New Twitter Rival Launches | B
Tech: AI Boom Stems Tech’s Downturn | W
Crypto
Who is Daniel Friedberg? FTX Lawyer Is Caught Up in Crypto Firm’s Fallout | B
Climate
Global Atmosphere, Ocean Temperatures Break Records in June | W
Beyond markets
Are We Finally Heading Toward ESG Sanity? I&I
