July 05 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Rolling Recovery
Instead of the economywide recession that was widely expected to result from the Fed’s monetary tightening, recessionary weakness rolled through different areas of the economy at different times. Now that rolling recession is turning into a rolling recovery. Accordingly, we’re raising our Q2 real GDP forecast from 1.0% to 2.0%, followed by 2.0% in Q3 and Q4. We now see a 75% chance of a soft landing (up from 70%)—subject to change depending on what the Fed does, which depends on what inflation does. … We expect inflation to continue to moderate, with a headline PCED rate closer 3.0% by year-end, down from 4.6% in May. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Ghosts of Beirut” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 4.
Markets
Column: Broadening horizons – deceptive breadth of equity rally | R
‘Bad Breadth’ is the latest ridiculous reason naysayers insist stocks are doomed | P
What Is the Average Stock Market Return? | Investing | U.S. News
Column: Old economy drags base metals lower in first half of 2023 | R
Credit
Leverage Is Creeping Back Into Corporate Credit, Citi Warns | B
Markets Ignore the Looming Debt Peril | W
Subprime Auto Bondholders Face Potential Hit as Delinquencies Rise | B
Energy
Saudi energy minister says Riyadh-Moscow oil cuts showed unity with Russia | C
Aramco chief blames recessionary signals for oil drop | C
Column: German electricity generation still stunted despite lower prices | R
Central banks
Fed meeting minutes to offer clues on future rate hike appetite | R
China’s Weakening Currency Is Becoming a Headache for Its Central Bank | W
US
The Richcession Keeps Rolling | W
America’s Retirees Are Investing More Like 30-Year-Olds | W
Bidenomics Puts the Middle Class Front-and-Center for 2024 Presidential Election | B
Insight: Swing state Republicans bleed donors and cash over Trump’s false election claims | R
Geopolitics & trade
China’s chipmaking export curbs ‘just a start’, Beijing adviser warns before Yellen visit | R
China’s Export Curb on Chip-Making Metals Prompt Countries to Explore Supply-Chain Diversification | W
China unexpectedly cancels top EU diplomat’s Beijing visit | C
Chinese state media rebuke Mark Zuckerberg over Quest headset plans | C
Taiwan’s Impossible Choice: Be Ukraine or Hong Kong | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: Why airline stocks are up even as disruptions mount | C
Autos: Auto Sales Defy Gloomy Forecasts | W
Autos: How China Came to Dominate the World’s Largest Nickel Source for Electric Cars | W
Autos: Here’s Another Reason To Hate EVs | Issues & Insights
Banks: Rebound in Rates Puts Pressure on Banks | W
Logistics: UPS Drivers Head Toward Possible Strike as Labor Talks Stall | B
Media: 2023 movie box office needs strong second half after inconsistent start | C
Climate
Climate crisis: World registers hottest day since records began | C
Renewable energy: How solar and wind are saving Texas from record heat | The Week
Technology
New York City Starts to Regulate AI Used in Hiring Tools | W
Beyond markets
Major League Pickleball names new CEO, COO | C
Remote Work Sticks for All Kinds of Jobs | W
