July 03 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Rolling Recovery
Instead of the economywide recession that was widely expected to result from the Fed’s monetary tightening, recessionary weakness rolled through different areas of the economy at different times. Now that rolling recession is turning into a rolling recovery. Accordingly, we’re raising our Q2 real GDP forecast from 1.0% to 2.0%, followed by 2.0% in Q3 and Q4. We now see a 75% chance of a soft landing (up from 70%)—subject to change depending on what the Fed does, which depends on what inflation does. … We expect inflation to continue to moderate, with a headline PCED rate closer 3.0% by year-end, down from 4.6% in May. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Ghosts of Beirut” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on June 20

Markets
Falling Gas Prices Fuel Expectations for Record Holiday Travel | W
Oil rallies on Saudi and Russian supply cuts for August | R
Oil giants drill deep as profits trump climate concerns | R

Central banks
Column: Dulled interest rate ‘pain’ nudging peaks higher | R
 
US
Labor Market Headfake? Key Report Could Be Overestimating Job Growth | W
Biden’s reckless, broken promise on college debt | The Hill
Thousands of Southern California hotel workers begin strike | C

Europe
The European Hot Spots Struggling With the Tourist Masses | W
 
Geopolitics & trade
EU, Japan look to partner on A.I., chips amid China ‘de-risking’ push | C
Weaker China offers opportunities to US and allies | R
U.S., China Start Talking Again, With Global Economic Order at Stake | W
Is India the next China? Fund manager says he prefers India | C
What Makes Putin and the World’s Autocrats So Resilient? | W
Putin’s Corporate Takeover of Wagner Has Begun | W
 
Industries & companies
Autos: Why it’s nearly impossible to find a car for less than $30,000 | C
Media: Elon Musk says Twitter will temporarily limit number of posts users can view per day, citing ‘system manipulation’ | C

Technology
What Will AI Do to Your Job? Take a Look at What It’s Already Doing to Coders | W
Opinion | The True Threat of Artificial Intelligence | N
SoftBank Spent $140 Billion on AI With Little to Show. Now It Is Trying Again. | W

Climate
Siemens Energy wind turbine problems could be an industry-wide issue | C
Joe Biden’s $400 Billion Man | W

Beyond markets
Departing CDC Director Rochelle Walensky Warns of Politicized Science | W
How to Succeed in Business Like Taylor Swift | W