June 20 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Hop, Skip & A Jump?
The ranks of stock market bears are thinning as investors increasingly concede that no recession is on the horizon. Inflation will continue to drop, with positive—not negative—effects on earnings, we contend, because profit margins have been hurt—not helped—by high inflation. Lower inflation should boost margins and earnings. … The ranks of stock market bulls are growing, their case strengthened by broadening stock market leadership and more bullish sentiment. … Also: We don’t buy the argument that recession will descend once consumers spend their pandemic windfalls, for several reasons. … And: The latest economic releases support our rolling-recession-with-disinflation outlook. … Finally, Dr. Ed reviews “FDR” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on June 12.
Markets
Bull market or fool’s market? Investors say the latter | NN
Global Stocks Slip as China Stimulus Hopes Fade | W
Hedge Funds’ Algorithms, Quant Bets Gaining Popularity in China | B
Yen (JPY USD) Pressure Mounts With Trade-Weighted Gauge at Two-Decade Low | B
Fuel-Efficient Planes, Sputtering China Rebound to Crimp Oil’s Key Demand Driver | B
Global
Why What We Thought About the Global Economy Is No Longer True | N
Why Inflation Around the World Just Won’t Go Away | W
Central banks
ECB Officials Spar as Lane Rebuffs Talk of September Rate Hike | B
China cuts two more key lending rates as economy sputters | C
UK Interest Rates: BOE Faces Tricky Task Ahead of Next Decision, El-Erian Says | B
The ‘hawkish’ Fed pause is a clear message that rates will stay higher for longer | The Hill
Goldman Sachs’s Advice to Clients Has Long Rejected ‘Easy’ Fed Notion | FO
US
Youngkin: Virginia has a better idea than Biden’s dangerous energy plan | P
Japan
Japan signed a critical minerals deal with the U.S. — but it’s still losing the global EV race | C
Warren Buffett’s Big Bet on Japan Trading Firms Push Analyst Targets Up | B
Geopolitics & trade
Xi Tells Blinken ‘Very Good’ That Progress Made on US-China Ties | B
Xi Jinping Meets Antony Blinken as U.S., China Resume High-Level Engagement | W
Five Tools Europe Will Use to Counter China’s Geopolitical Rise | B
Industries & companies
Aerospace: Airbus wins record 500-plane order from India’s IndiGo | C
Consumer: Why Amazon built HQ2 and how Covid pandemic reshaped it | C
Energy: New Land Grab by Oil Giants Is Deep Underground | W
Retail: Brands Wanted to Cut Out Stores. Not Anymore. | W
Technology
Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky: AI will make entrepreneurship easier | C
Beyond markets
SVB Customers Who Lost Their Deposits Remain on the Hook for Loans | W
