June 13 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Long & Variable Lags?
The economy has responded to monetary tightening quickly, our research finds, not with “long and variable lags” as monetarism theorizes. Today’s economy and financial systems are exceptionally resilient. … Among some of the reasons: A deluge of post-pandemic fiscal spending has dulled the impacts of tightening. Certain typically interest-rate sensitive industries have been atypically resistant to tightening because of pandemic effects specific to them. Tighter credit conditions after the banking crisis have not triggered a widespread credit crunch. Consumers’ excess savings are dropping fast, but the economic effects are offset by retiring Baby Boomers’ massive net worth. AI and other tech advances have kindled the animal spirits of economic actors.
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on June 12.
Markets
S&P 500 Closes at Its Highest in Over a Year | W
S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at highest since April 2022 | R
US Junk-Bond Maturities Shrink to Record Low as Debt Mountain Grows | B
Commodities
Battle for Aluminum Stocks Is Draining LME of Non-Russian Metal | B
Central banks
Fed Backs Away From Wages Focus, Bolstering Case for Rate Pause | B
Inflation outlook hits two-year low in latest New York Fed survey | C
Inflation Expectations for Near Term Hit Two-Year Low in Fed Survey | B
Inflation Puts the Fed On Its Heels | W
The Fed and Jerome Powell’s Big Problem Just Got Even More Complicated | W
US
US Budget Gap Widens to $1.2 Trillion in Fiscal Year Through May | B
Social Security’s back in the GOP’s crosshairs: Here’s an alternative to cuts | The Hill
‘Trump can’t win’: Koch network targets ex-president, Biden | C
The rich often overestimate their retirement readiness, report finds | C
China
Fueled by Long Credit Binge, China’s Economy Faces Drag From Debt Purge | W
Geopolitics & trade
Xi Prepares China for ‘Extreme’ Scenarios, Including Conflict with the West | W
Kim Jong Un Says He Is ‘Holding Hands’ With Vladimir Putin | W
Yellen Says IMF, World Bank Are Important Counterweights to China | B
U.S. to Allow South Korean, Taiwan Chip Makers to Keep Operations in China | W
Industries & companies
Cruise Lines: Cruise Stocks Climb as BofA, JPMorgan Tout Booking Demand | B
Media: Elon Musk’s Twitter vs. Bad Bots: The Battle Goes On | W
Tech: Apple hits record high one week after announcing Vision Pro VR headset | C
Corporate finance
For Corporate Spending, Something’s Gotta Give | W
FTC files to block Microsoft-Activision | C
Nasdaq to buy fintech firm Adenza for $10.5 billion, rattling some investors | R
Don’t Say It Too Loudly, But UBS Just Got a Steal of a Deal | W
Beyond markets
Work from home and empty offices leading to ‘doom loop’ for NYC | P
Tower at 111 Wall Street epitomizes crisis of NYC’s commercial real-estate market | P
What Happened In 1971? It’s a Question Everyone Should Ask | FO
Hotel Owners Start to Write Off San Francisco as Business Nosedives | W
