May 23 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Looking Forward To Better Earnings
Our analysis of forward earnings—a good indicator for actual earnings over the next four quarters—suggests an April bottom. That jibes with our mid-cycle-slowdown thesis. … Many who expect a recession instead have been misled by the LEI’s recession signaling. The LEI overrepresents the weak goods side of the economy and underrepresents the strong services side that’s been keeping the economy afloat. … We think the forward profit margin, like forward earnings, has bottomed; margins have been improving for all but three S&P 500 sectors. … And: Still no credit crunch from the banking crisis. … Also: An update on bond market indicators.
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on May 22.
Markets
Saudi oil minister warns market speculators to ‘watch out’ ahead of OPEC+ meeting | C
Central banks
Fed Rate Path Hinges on Trade-Off Between Stable Banks or Prices | B
US I
Biden, McCarthy Hold ‘Productive’ Meeting but No Debt-Ceiling Deal Yet | W
Opinion | Liberals Are Persuading Themselves of a Debt Ceiling Plan That Won’t Work | N
What Is the 14th Amendment, and Can Biden Use It to Fix the Debt Ceiling? | W
Questions About Trump, DeSantis and Biden Fuel Growth of 2024 GOP Field | W
US II
Why Inflation Erupted: Two Top Economists Have the Answer | W
Why fears of a banking crisis were overblown | P
What do Gen Z graduates want out of work? Stable jobs and good work-life balance. | Vox
US Women in Work: Number Participating in Economy at Record High | B
A Housing Bust Comes for Thousands of Small-Time Investors | W
Europe
Europe’s Economy Cools Down as Interest-Rate Rises Bite | W
Germany’s EON to Set up New European Gas and Power Trading Unit | B
Pasta prices have surged, prompting crisis meetings in Italy and calls for a strike | C
The IMF now expects the UK to avoid a recession | C
Geopolitics & trade
China’s New Chip Ban on Micron Puts South Korea in a Delicate Spot | W
Rising Nuclear-Weapons Risks Overshadow G-7’s Push for Disarmament at Hiroshima | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Hyundai Accelerates From Budget Brand to Tesla Competitor | W
Energy: Oil giant Shell braces for shareholder revolt over climate plans | C
Pharma: Covid vaccines: What’s next for Pfizer, Moderna | C
Retail: Retailers Clamp Down on Returns | W
Corporate finance
Bankruptcies are skyrocketing — and that’s only half the story | The Hill
Climate
JPMorgan Makes One of the Biggest Bets Ever on Carbon Removal | W
Beyond markets
Paper Money Diehards Refuse to Fold | W
