May 09 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Jobs Driving The Economy
It’s tough to believe that a recession is imminent with the Coincident Economic Indicators index as strong as ever. The CEI’s payroll employment component hit a record high in April, suggesting that the other three (yet-to-be-reported) components did too. Admittedly, the Leading Economic Indicators hasn’t been strong; its weakness purportedly indicates a coming downturn in the CEI and real GDP. But look at its ten components: Services are noticeably absent. So the LEI is not as trusty a recession bellwether as the CEI, in our view. … Also: Joe Feshbach’s insights on the stock market from a trader’s perspective.
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on May 8.
Markets
Where Is the Stock Market Going? Quants and Human Traders Diverge | B
Central banks
Fed Flags Credit Tightening and Financial Stress Concerns in Report | B
Powell’s Recession Forecast Overlooks Credit Crunch, DC Standoff, Bad Weather | B
Jerome Powell’s sappy talk on banks is weak after multiple collapses | P
US Debt-Ceiling Showdown Clouding Fed Economic Outlook, Goolsbee Says | B
US Flights, Hotels, Auto Industry Raise Prices, Testing Fed’s Inflation Fight | B
Why On Earth Would You Fight ‘Inflation’ With Higher Interest Rates? | FO
Understanding the Recent Behavior of Inflation | St. Louis Fed
US
America’s Factory Boom Drives Sales Surge for Excavators, Steel and Trucks | W
Factories Stutter in Renewed Weakness on Bloomberg Trade Tracker
Column: Recession or not, US economy is losing momentum | R
Yellen is calling CEOs personally to warn on US debt ceiling, sources say | R
Eviction Bans Remain in California More Than 3 Years Into the Pandemic | W
NYC hasn’t ‘failed’ yet like San Francisco–but it’s at risk | P
What Record Office Vacancies Mean for New York City’s Economy | N
‘Over Our Dead Bodies’: Backlash Builds Against $3 Trillion Clean-Energy Push | W
Geopolitics & trade
Yellen and Sullivan Speeches Likely Won’t Assuage US-China Tensions | B
Chinese Foreign Minister Scolds U.S. Envoy Over Taiwan | W
China Signals Spying Fears Amid Probe of Consulting Firms | W
EU Targets Eight Chinese Companies in Russia Sanctions Push | W
Industries & companies
Aerospace: Ryanair close to placing major Boeing order -sources | R
Airlines: Biden Says Administration Will Propose Airline Rule to Compensate Passengers for Delays, Cancellations | W
Banks: Regional Bank Stocks: Retail Traders Buy Into Volatility For Quick Gains | B
Financials: Banks tighten credit terms, see loan demand drop, Fed survey shows | R
Pharma: Something Congress Might Agree On: Tackling Drug Costs | W
Corporate finance
Baxter Selling Biopharma-Solutions Arm for $4.25 Billion | W
Big Oil Has $150 Billion in Cash and Investors Want a Share | W
Crypto
U.S. Exchanges List More Than a Dozen Cryptos the SEC Says Are Illegal to Sell | W
Technology
ChatGPT Fever Has Investors Pouring Billions Into AI Startups, No Business Plan Required | W
GPTZero App Seeks to Thwart ChatGPT, AI Plagiarism in Schools, Online Media | B
Beyond markets
How Rich Is King Charles III? Inside The New Monarch’s Outrageous Fortune | FO
Elizabeth Holmes Opens Up About Her Theranos Trial and What Comes Next | N
Does internet use protect you from dementia? | National Post
