April 11 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Big Lebowski
The Fed’s rate hiking may have busted something in the credit system. Specifically, the disintermediation that tightening has caused may require small banks to cut costs so deeply that merging is their only recourse. … Given this, how can the Fed fail to conclude that the federal funds rate is restrictive enough now? Pausing the tightening for a while should land the economy softly, with moderating inflation. But continued tightening would cause a hard landing and possibly even deflation. … And: You wouldn’t know there’s any landing debate going on looking just at the labor market; payroll employment is at a record high.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on April 10.

Markets
U.S. money market funds see fourth weekly inflow in a row | R
Stock Pickers Failed to Take Part in First-Quarter Rally | W
Column: China and India keep Asia’s crude oil imports robust in March | R

Credit
Bond Market Flashes US Recession Warning While Other Investors Call False Alarm | B
The credit crunch the Fed fears may already be taking shape | R
Outlook for credit access hits record low, inflation expectations jump | C

Central banks
Fed Swaps See About 80% Chance of a Quarter-Point May Rate Hike | B
New Bank of Japan Chief Says He Will Maintain Easy Money | W

Global
IMF Disagrees With Larry Summers Over Where Interest Rates Will Settle | B

US
Ultra-rich have influence over our government . . . no, not that one | P
Why Older People Can’t Get New Mortgages | N

Geopolitics & trade
South Korea to Probe Circumstances Around Reported Leak of Classified U.S. Documents | W

Industries & companies
Autos: When Will Cars Be Fully Self-Driving? | W
Banks: Bank Crisis Shows Signs of Easing as FHLB Debt Issuance Shrinks in Late March | B
Banks: Auditors Didn’t Flag Risks Building Up in Banks | W
Construction: Construction Industry Has Work, Needs More Workers | W
Pharma: Moderna hopes to offer new vaccines for cancer, heart disease by 2030 | C
Pharma: The $76 Billion Diet Industry Asks: What to Do About Ozempic? | W
Real Estate: Transcript: What Commercial Real Estate Stress Means for Banks and Bond Funds | B
Tech: Is Big Tech’s R&D Spending Actually Hurting Innovation in the U.S.? | W

ESG & climate
This terrifying reason Silicon Valley Bank collapsed is a threat to thousands of other businesses | FO

Technology
AI-Proofing Your Career Starts in College | B
AI and Facial Recognition May Be Able to Spot Stroke and Other Diseases | W
Should Robots With Artificial Intelligence Have Moral or Legal Rights? | W

Beyond markets
At FTX, Multimillion-Dollar Expenses Were Approved by Emoji | W
FBI says you shouldn’t use public phone charging stations | C