March 22 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Looking Ahead To Earnings Season
Industry analysts and company managements have an optimism bias that blinds them to encroaching recessions. So when a recession looms, forward earnings’ reliability as an indicator of actual earnings to come falters. … While analysts have been cutting their 2023 and 2024 earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies since last summer, their expectations for next year are still higher than for this year. As long as that remains the case, forward earnings, which have been declining since last summer, soon should stop falling and start moving higher unless a recession happens. … And: S&P 500 earnings growth ex Energy sector could turn positive in Q2 as Energy de-energizes.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 20.
Markets
Anxiety Strikes $8 Trillion Mortgage-Debt Market After SVB Collapse | W
Central banks
Fed likely to raise rates by a quarter point but it must also reassure markets on banking system | C
Banks
SVB-Fueled Turmoil Junks Lessons of the Global Financial Crisis | W
SVB Loans to Insiders Tripled to $219 Million Before It Failed | B
What are Credit Suisse’s AT1 bonds, or CoCos, and why do they matter | C
Credit Suisse Write-Off Upends European Bank Capital Bonds | W
Despite US Bank Failures, Congress Is Slow-Walking a Fix | B
UBS set for talks with Michael Klein to terminate Credit Suisse investment bank deal – FT | R
US
Rising Interest Rates, Inflation and Now a Banking Crisis Pile On American Consumers | W
Home sales spike in February, median price drops | C
Home Prices Fell in February for First Time in 11 Years | W
Yellen Says U.S. Could Move to Protect Deposits at Other Banks | W
Which Sectors Have the Most Job Cuts Worldwide | B
Geopolitics & trade
Russia-China Summit Showcases Challenge to the West | W
U.S. Warns China Not to Use Taiwan President’s U.S. Stop to Raise Tensions | W
Industries & companies
Real Estate: Commercial Property Debt Creates More Bank Worries | W
Tech: Chip Makers Find Out How to Get 25% Investment Tax Credit | W
Technology
Bill Gates: OpenAI GPT most important advance in technology since 1980 | C
Google CEO Pichai memo to employees on Bard AI: ‘things will go wrong’ | C
A Psychologist Explains How AI and Algorithms Are Changing Our Lives | W
U.S. State-Government Websites Use TikTok Trackers, Review Finds | W
FDA Clears California Company’s Lab-Grown Chicken as Safe to Eat | W
Beyond markets
Personality tests: Why the Enneagram is trending again | C
Elon Musk’s Twitter Purchase May Have Put Him Out of Reach of Washington | B
Deadly Fungus, Candida Auris, Spreading Across U.S. in Healthcare Facilities, CDC Says | W
