March 21 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Giving Credit Where Credit Is Due
The spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the federal funds rate inverted in November; such inversions are predictive of credit crunches and recessions. They also tend to predict financial crises that halt Fed tightening. It’s too early to credit the yield-curve inversion for calling a recession, but it was spot on in presaging a crisis like SVB. … Small banks seem vulnerable now to depositor flight, which could prompt a credit crunch impacting small businesses. … But we don’t think a credit crunch would hurt consumer spending and homebuying as much as lower interest rates will boost them. … Our message to the FOMC: Give it a rest.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 20.
Markets
U.S. Stocks Gain; First Republic Keeps Falling | W
Market stress indicators flash warnings as banking worries continue | R
`Minsky Moment’ Chances Increasing, JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic Says | B
JPMorgan Owned the LME ‘Nickel’ That Was Actually Bags of Stones | B
Central banks
Federal Reserve Faces Tough Decision on Rate Increase | W
The canary is alive and chirping a year into Fed’s rate hiking cycle | R
Let’s Please Stop Insulting Silicon Valley With the Assertion That the Fed Made It | FO
Banks
US Studies Raising FDIC Bank Deposit Guarantee Beyond $250,000 Cap in Crisis | B
$17 billion of Credit Suisse bonds worthless following UBS takeover | C
JPMorgan advising First Republic on strategic alternatives, including a capital raise, sources say | C
The Financial Risks of Regulatory Panic | W
US
Biden is subverting democracy with his CHIPS rules | Washington Examiner
Geopolitics & trade
Putin meets ‘dear friend’ Xi in Kremlin as Ukraine war grinds on | R
Japan PM Kishida announces new Indo-Pacific plan during India visit | C
US report lists ‘significant human rights’ abuses in India | R
Industries & companies
Consumer discretionary: Amazon’s post-Bezos experiment hasn’t gone exactly as planned | C
Consumer discretionary: Amazon Plans to Lay Off an Additional 9,000 Workers | W
Pharma: Moderna (MRNA) Paid the US More than Enough for Covid Shot, Executive Says | B
Financials: JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank ordered to face lawsuits over Jeffrey Epstein ties | R
Technology
In San Francisco, some people wonder when A.I. will kill us all | C
Beyond markets
Long COVID: The truth about it is emerging, and it’s not what we thought. | slate.com
Covid Report Based on Wuhan, China Samples Puts Suspicion Back to Animal Origins | B
