March 08 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Profit Margin Recession?
Today, we examine S&P 500 companies’ revenues, earnings, and profit margins as reported for Q4-2022 and as estimated by industry analysts for 2023. Notably, Q4 revenues grew impressively to a record high, but inflation accounted for much of that. Operating earnings per share fell y/y, and just two S&P 500 sectors saw y/y earnings growth. Profit margins were squeezed by rising labor costs at a time of negative productivity growth. … While Q4 is behind us, its influence isn’t: It has caused analysts to chop earnings expectations for all four quarters of this year. Current 2024 estimates may prove too low if they reflect a recession that never arrives.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on March 6.
Markets
Strategists See Asian Currencies, Stocks Under Pressure From Fed | B
China Bears Brunt of Asia Tech Selloff After Hawkish Powell Talk | B
Deepest Bond Yield Inversion Since Volcker Suggests Hard Landing | B
Energy
U.S. Shale Boom Shows Signs of Peaking as Big Oil Wells Disappear | W
India’s oil deals with Russia dent decades-old dollar dominance | R
Central banks
Fed’s Powell previews tougher rate hike path, starting soon | R
Powell Testimony: Repeats Fed Prepared to Speed Up Interest Rate Hikes If Needed | B
Powell Testimony: Fed Chair Says ‘No Decision’ on Speeding Up Rate Hike Pace | B
Fed Chair Jerome Powell Returns to Congress for Second Day of Testimony | W
US I
US JOLTS Job Openings Drop to 10.8 Million But Still Too High for Fed | B
Job openings declined in January but still far outnumber available workers | C
ADP jobs report February 2023: Private payrolls rose by 242,000, better than expected | C
Restaurants Can’t Find Workers as Millennials, Gen X Avoid Return to Work | B
Women’s Return to the Workforce Piles Momentum on a Hot Economy | W
US II
Mortgage demand recovers slightly, despite rising rates | C
Manchin Faces 2024 Choice Crucial to Democratic Friends and Foes Alike | B
U.S. Imports, Exports Grew in January, Adding to Signs of Solid Global Economy | W
Europe
French strikes over pension reform disrupt air and rail travel, fuel supply | R
China
Xi Jinping’s Subtle Strategy to Control China’s Biggest Companies | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.S., China Plunge Further Into a Spiral of Hostility | W
Russia and China may try using their natural resources to back their money | WT
In Nord Stream Probe, German Investigators Search Boat That May Have Carried Explosives | W
Studying Ukraine war, China’s military minds fret over US missiles, Starlink | R
Yellen is giving away the farm through global tax scheme | The Hill
Industries & companies
Airlines: American Airlines CEO tells pilots pay will match Delta’s | C
Autos: Tesla Rival BYD Plans Big Commercial-Vehicle Push | W
Beyond markets
The Perk-Cession Is Under Way at Some Companies | W
