February 27 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: March Madness?
The stock market beat a hasty retreat in February, spooked by reports of January’s economic strength and the Fed’s dreaded possible reaction. So today we look at what March’s releases of economic data for February might bring. They could be bad news for the markets, but we actually expect the best—viewing January’s strength as anomalous and expecting February’s data to confirm our soft-landing outlook. Accordingly, we still think a new bull market was born last October; it’s just not bursting out of the gate as most bulls do. The market may remain volatile pending more clarity on what the Fed will do. … Also: Dr. Ed’s bearish review of “Cocaine Bear” (-).
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 21.

Markets
Investors Are Bracing for Surge in Market Volatility | W
Any Way You Slice It, Stocks Still Don’t Look Cheap | BR
Bonds Are Slumping Again. How to Play It Safe. | BR
Hopes for Lower Interest Rates Fade as Inflation Doesn’t | BR
Warren Buffett annual letter Berkshire Hathaway: stock buybacks | C

Commodities
Russia’s War Brings Commodities Scare, but No Squeeze | BR
War in Ukraine Drives New Surge of U.S. Oil Exports to Europe | W

Central banks
Is the U.S. Economy In Recession? What the Fed—and Everyone Else—Got Wrong. | BR

US
Burned Out, More Americans Are Turning to Part-Time Jobs | W
Conservatives Have a New Rallying Cry: Down With ESG | W
Supreme Court’s Student-Loan Case Will Test Limits of Presidential Power | W
Joe Manchin Declines to Describe Himself as a Democrat | W

Europe
Switzerland avoided rampant inflation: Why the Swiss economy is strong | C

China
Despite the bullish talk, Wall Street has China reservations | E
China has not resolved its past lending mistakes. But it is learning from them | E
Xi Jinping’s next overseas-lending revolution | E
How to Invest in China as New Megatrends Take Hold, According to Jefferies’ Simon Powell | BR
China, Needing Babies, Eases Limits on Births | NYT
Covid-Era Savings Are Crucial to China’s Economic Recovery | W
China’s public is fed up, but not on the brink of revolt | E

Industries & companies
Autos: First Big U.S. EV-Battery Plant Offers Lessons as Industry Springs Up | W
Retail: A warning from Walmart about the health of the American consumer | E
Retail: Can’t figure out economy? Walmart, Home Depot are having trouble, too | C

Geopolitics & trade
Global firms are eyeing Asian alternatives to Chinese manufacturing | E
CIA Chief Says China Has Doubts About Its Ability to Invade Taiwan | W
How to win the hot war in Ukraine and the cold war that will follow it | E
Putin is too confident he can grind down Ukraine, CIA director says | C
How Microchips Migrate From China to Russia | W

Technology
ChatGPT Heralds an Intellectual Revolution | W

Beyond markets
U.S. Energy Department assesses with ‘low confidence’ Covid may have originated from Chinese lab leak | C
A Lab Leak in China Most Likely Origin of Covid Pandemic, Energy Department Says | W
Another Turn in the Covid Lab-Leak Story | W
There is a worrying amount of fraud in medical research | E
Three Years Late, the Lancet Recognizes Natural Immunity | W