February 21 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Four Landing Scenarios
What’s next for the US economy? Of four potential outlooks, we see the greatest odds (40%) of a soft landing in which inflation moderates, the Treasury bond remains below last year’s peak, and the S&P 500 ends the year at a new high. We also see two no-landing possibilities—one disinflationary, one inflationary (20% each)—and a possible hard landing (20%). The first two scenarios would be optimistic for the economy and bullish for stocks, the last two negative and bearish. … Also: We examine data supporting the relatively new no-landing scenarios as well as the latest inflation data. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Vikings: Valhalla: Season 2” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 13.
Markets
Chinese Shares Lead Gains in Global Markets as U.S. Breaks for Presidents Day | W
Central banks
Whatever Happens With ‘Inflation,’ Don’t Cheer/Jeer the Fed for the Outcome | FO
Commodities
Feed the World Without Fertilizer? Why Crop Nutrients Are Suddenly Political | B
Big Take: How Fertilizer Has Become a Lever of Global Influence | B
Column: The devil’s metal strikes again in Trafigura nickel fraud case | R
US
Layoffs spread, but some employers can’t hire fast enough | C
Debt-Ceiling Standoff Prompts Backup Plans, but They Face Hurdles Too | W
Why fed-up Tri-Staters are voting with their flip-flops | P
China
China’s State-Owned Property Developers Shun Private-Sector Deals | W
Europe
Column: Europe nears end of winter with bulging gas stocks | R
Geopolitics & trade
Inside Biden’s Surprise Kyiv, Ukraine, Visit to Meet Zelenskiy | B
North Korea fires two more missiles into its Pacific ‘firing range’ | R
Why So Many States Want to Ban China From Owning Farmland | FiveThirtyEight
Industries & companies
Airlines: United aims to make it easier for families to sit together for free | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon Corporate Workers Face Pay Reduction After Shares Slip | W
Climate
Electric vehicles alone won’t take us to a decarbonized future | The Hill
Turkey and Syria rocked again by magnitude 6.3 earthquake | C
Italy faces new drought alert as Venice canals run dry | R
Crypto
EU calls for fast-track crypto capital rules for banks | R
How the SEC and Paxos-BUSD fight could impact the stablecoin market | C
Beyond markets
Please go home! Indian firm deploys software for work-life balance | R
