wiar 02-13-23 • Yardeni Research

February 13 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Financial Conditions
Perversely, the financial markets’ vote of confidence in the Fed’s ability to subdue inflation without getting the economy into trouble represents a threat to those very efforts, in Fed officials’ eyes, loosening financial conditions as the Fed tightens them. So Fed officials have been trying to squelch investor optimism. … A close look at the data relevant to financial conditions reveals them as tight, but in a good way—tight enough to bring inflation down without a recession but not tight enough to provoke a credit crunch that results in a recession. We continue to stand behind our disinflationary soft-landing forecast. … Also: Dr. Ed reviews the film “Mr. Jones” (+ + +).
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 6.

Markets
Oil falls on demand fears as Fed ‘make or break moment’ approaches | R
Analysts see short-term strength, long-term ‘generational shift’ in copper prices | C
6 European Stocks That Could Gain From the Dollar’s Reversal | BR

Central banks
Japan Says Sayonara to Idea of Central Banker as Rescue Hero | W

US
Hard or Soft Landing? Some Economists See Neither if Growth Accelerates | W
Inflation Is Falling, and Where It Lands Depends on These Three Things | W
Here’s where the jobs will be during the rolling recessions | C
Social Security full retirement age shouldn’t go higher, experts say | C
Rethinking Retirement Savings in Light of Longer Life Spans | BR
High Healthcare Costs Are a Challenge, Even for Healthy Seniors | BR

Europe
Europe should not respond to America’s subsidies binge with its own blunders | E
Europe’s spend on energy crisis nears 800 billion euros | R

China
China’s ultra-fast economic recovery | E

Japan
Japanese workers are seeking higher wages overseas | E

Flying objects
How China’s balloon sent the U.S. on a hunt for flying objects | R
Cold-war lessons from China’s spy balloon | E
U.S. shoots down a fourth high-altitude object as lawmakers demand more information | C
China Says U.S. Flew Balloons Through Its Airspace More Than 10 Times | W

Geopolitics & trade
Analysis: Loans to Russian soldiers fuel calls for European banks to quit | R

Industries & companies
Energy: Chevron Weighs Extending CEO Mike Wirth Past Mandatory Retirement Age | W
Media: What will TV be like in three years? Insiders predict future | C
Movie theaters: Movie theaters get creative with concessions | C

Technology
ChatGPT Isn’t That Smart. Let’s Stop Pretending. | BR
The battle for internet search | E
UK semiconductor strategy: Chip firms threaten to move overseas | C
Why internet passkeys may soon replace your passwords | C

Crypto
Regulator Orders Crypto Firm Paxos to Stop Issuing Binance Stablecoin | W