February 06 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: US Economy: Still Flying & Disinflating
Last week brought plenty of affirmation for stock-market bulls, with lots of favorable data releases and a less hawkish-sounding Fed Chair Powell. The data depicted an economy that has not been landing at all but remaining quite airborne amid more signs of disinflation. … Powell said in his post-FOMC meeting presser that disinflation has a ways to go. Until inflation declines to the Fed’s target level, monetary policy will remain restrictive, he said, confirming that two more 25bps hikes in the federal funds rate are likely, followed by a pause. We review the latest disinflation readings, and Dr. Ed reviews another movie: “To Leslie” (+ +).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 30.

Markets
The Stock Market Is in the Mood to Rally, Even if It Defies Logic | BR
Rallying markets suffer from a doveish illusion | E
Bonds Take Flight. But Investors Should Brace for Bumps Ahead. | BR
Optimism on Chinese stocks soars to five-year highs | C
Is there a fix for Japan’s markets mess? | E
Get Ready for a New Investment Supercycle | BR

Commodities
Oil Industry’s Windfall Fails to Excite Wall Street | W
Why the West’s oil sanctions on Russia are proving to be underwhelming | E
Gold Prices Are Gaining Ground. Here’s How to Invest. | BR
Silver Prices Are Outpacing Gold. That’s a Good Sign for the Global Economy. | BR

Central banks
Upbeat Economic Data Keep Investors on Edge About Fed | W
For the Fed, Beating Inflation Requires Bringing Wages Down, Too | BR
Super-tight policy is still struggling to control inflation | E
The Bank of Japan should stop defending its cap on bond yields | E

US
Job Numbers Keep Climbing, Sinking Chances of Rate Cuts | BR
Unemployment Falls to 3.4%, Lowest in 53 Years, Jobs Report Shows | W
Restaurant, Healthcare Jobs Led January Hiring Surge | W
States Are Flush With Cash, Which Could Soften a Possible Recession | W
The Government’s Infrastructure Binge Is Coming. Finding Stocks to Play It Is Tricky. | BR
America’s government is spending lavishly to revive manufacturing | E
Joe Biden’s effort to remake the economy is ambitious, risky—and selfish | E

Europe
Column: Europe’s gas supply stabilises after colder weather | R

China
The Pitfalls of Investing in China | BR
China is paralysing global debt-forgiveness efforts | E
Column: China’s zinc and lead exports plug Western supply gaps | R

Geopolitics & trade
China Balloon Recovery: US Launches Salvage Mission | B
Russia’s technocrats keep funds flowing for Vladimir Putin’s war | E
Putin promised not to kill Zelenskyy, former Israeli prime minister says | C

Industries & companies
Energy: Buy Linde Stock. The Industrial-Gas Giant Is Going All-In on Hydrogen. | BR
Financials: Banks Borrow Unsecured Cash at Record Clip While Deposits Flee | W
Pharma: Pfizer Is Moving Beyond Covid. Why Its Stock Is a Buy. | BR
REITs: A Housing Downturn Could Help These Rental-Focused REITs | BR
Retail: Buy Ulta Beauty Stock. It’s a Winner in Good Times and Bad. | BR

Technology
The relationship between AI and humans | E