January 30 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: ABCs of GDP & PCED
The global financial markets are reflecting expectations for an improved global economy, and the US stock market is siding with the optimists on the US economic outlook, us among them: We continue to see greater odds of a soft landing (60%) than a hard one (40%). … Recent GDP and inflation data support our soft-landing scenario. Q4 GDP was strong, but a look under the hood suggests it was boosted by unintended inventories and Q1 GDP might be tempered by inventory liquidation. The past three months of PCED inflation data highlights reassuring downward progress, especially in goods inflation. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Argentina 1985” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 23.
Markets
The Bulls Have It in 2023—and Last Year’s Losers Are Winners | BR
An Unstoppable Stock Market Is About to Meet the Immovable Fed | BR
Stick With High-Quality Bonds as Yields Approach 5% | BR
Short Sellers Feel the Pain in Stock Market’s 2023 Rally | W
Adani hits back at Hindenburg, says it made all disclosures | R
Energy & climate
Russia’s Oil Ban Pain Is a Big Gain for India | BR
Indiana’s Cornfields Could Be Gone With the Wind Farm | W
Central banks
Fed Debates Whether Wages or Low Unemployment Will Drive Inflation | W
How High Will Rates Go? This Coming Week’s Fed Meeting May Offer Strong Clues. | BR
China central bank to roll over lending tools to spur growth | R
Global
How the world economy could avoid recession | E
The world economy’s inflation problem is easing | E
US I
What CEOs Are Saying: ‘The Consumer Is Under Pressure’ | W
The Decline of the Nice-to-Have Economy | W
Where have all America’s workers gone? | E
The Jobless Rate Is at a Half-Century Low. In These States, It’s Even Lower. | W
US II
McCarthy to discuss debt limit, spending with Biden | R
If Biden Doesn’t Run | W
The power couple at the center of Biden’s political universe | C
Europe
Strikes over pensions to disrupt public transport in France on Tuesday | R
China
China’s Big Comeback Is Just Getting Started. How to Play It. | BR
China’s property slump is easing, but the relief will be short-lived | E
Chinese singles face the heat over the holiday | E
Geopolitics & trade
Does China’s softer tone extend to Taiwan? | E
China’s Top Nuclear-Weapons Lab Used American Computer Chips Decades After Ban | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Toyota Rethinks EV Strategy With New CEO | W
Financials: The humbling of Goldman Sachs | E
Home Builders: Buy Toll Brothers Stock. Shares of the Top Luxury Home Builder Look Very Cheap. | BR
Media: Breakup of Google’s Ad Business Would Reshape $500 Billion Sector | W
Retail: Buy Lowe’s Stock. The Home-Improvement Retailer Is Catching Up to Home Depot. | BR
Tech: Big Tech Is Headed for a Year of Tough Regulation | BR
Beyond markets
Covid: CDC urges immunocompromised to take precautions after Evusheld pulled | C
Skinamarink coming to Shudder, makes big money at box office | C
