January 09 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Good Start
We still see greater odds that the economy will glide to a soft landing (60%) than plummet to a hard one (40%), which nearly everyone else expects. What might a soft landing look like? The happiest—and most contrary—of scenarios would be a return of the “Old Normal,” which actually wouldn’t entail a landing at all: real GDP growth of at least 2.0%, moderating inflation, and not much more monetary tightening. … We expect this week’s market-moving news to be mostly reassuring, with a subdued CPI release and earnings reports that don’t disappoint. … Recent news has cut both ways—a concerning NM-PMI but auspicious capital-spending signs. … Movie review: “Tár” (+).
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on January 3.
Markets
Wall Street Sets Low Bar for Corporate Earnings Season | W
Stock Funds Posted a Strong Fourth Quarter, Closing Out a Tough 2022 | BR
Central banks
Fed faces ‘difficult’ call to avoid overdoing rates shock, Romer says | R
Energy
Warm Winter Helps Europe Overcome the Worst of Russia’s Energy Squeeze | B
US
As White-Collar Layoffs Rise, Blue-Collar Resilience Faces Test in 2023 | W
Lawmakers Earmark More Than $15 Billion in Spending Bill | N
House Republicans Turn Focus to Spending, China After Dramatic Speaker Vote | W
Republican representatives say they are not worried McCarthy conceded too much | C
U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy pledges to tackle immigration, ‘woke’ education policies and IRS funding | C
Upward Mobility Is Alive and Well in America | W
Lower wage growth aids U.S. inflation fight | R
Europe
Why the gusty North Sea could give Europe an industrial edge | E
China
China Reopens to the World as International Travel Restrictions End | W
China is overwhelmed, yet an even bigger covid wave may be coming | E
How China’s reopening will disrupt the world economy | E
China reopens borders in final farewell to zero-COVID | R
Geopolitics & trade
Germany Detains Iranian Suspected of Planning Chemical Attack | W
Sweden Can’t Meet Turkey’s Demands on NATO Expansion, Prime Minister Says | W
A realistic path to a better relationship between Britain and the EU | E
Industries & companies
Airlines: Airline perks and elite status will be harder to earn this year | C
Autos: Developing Nations Aren’t Ready for EVs—Unless They Are Made in China | W
Pharma: It’s Pharma Time: Why Merck and Lilly Stock Are Buys, but not Pfizer. | BR
Tech: Tech Industry Reversal Intensifies With New Rounds of Layoffs | W
Tech: Tech’s Bill Is Coming Due. Investors Aren’t the Only Ones Who Will Pay. | BR
Technology
China, a Pioneer in Regulating Algorithms, Turns Its Focus to Deepfakes | W
Check out BMW’s new color-changing concept car, the i Vision Dee | C
Corporate finance
Bed Bath & Beyond Looks Drained | BR
Climate
California’s Torrential Rains Don’t Mean the Drought Is Over | W
Hundreds of thousands left without power in California as forecasters warn of ‘relentless’ cyclones | C
