January 03 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Recession in 2023: 60/40 or 40/60?
With last year thankfully behind us, we take stock of what could go both wrong and right for the economy in 2023. We’re optimistic that 2023 will be better than 2022 for several reasons, but that’s a contrarian viewpoint. We maintain our 60% subjective odds that the economy will achieve a soft landing in 2023 and 40% odds that it will land hard, with a broad-based recession and no bull market resuming for stocks. Much depends on what happens with Fed policy and inflation. … Dr. Ed reviews “Causeway” (+).
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on December 12.
Markets
Stocks Have Their Worst Year Since 2008 | N
Investors Brace for More Market Tumult as Interest Rates Keep Rising | W
US
Get Ready for the Richcession | W
Stay for Pay? Companies Offer Big Raises to Retain Workers | W
A Perk to Getting These Jobs: You Pick Your Pay | W
Future Consumption Will Make the Prosperous Present Seem Deprived by Comparison | FO
Europe
European shares start 2023 on upbeat note on encouraging factory data | C
European Gas Falls To Lowest Level Since Before War in Ukraine | B
Tourism and Manufacturing Fight for the Future of Power in Europe | W
China
Chinese Health Official Raises Covid Alarm Ahead of Lunar New Year Holiday | W
China Covid Strategy Was ‘Optimized’ to Protect Lives, Xin Jinping Says | B
Geopolitics & trade
Signs Yevgeny Prigozhin is ‘worse than Putin’ and could be Russia’s next leader | P
Russia freezes Linde assets worth $488 mln | R
Banning TikTok is not a good use of Biden or Republican time | MSNBC
Industries & companies
Airlines: Flying blind: The problem isn’t flight cancellations — It’s flying! | The Hill
Autos: Tesla TSLA Q4 2022 vehicle delivery and production numbers | C
Financials: Big Banks Predict Recession, Fed Pivot in 2023 | W
Retail: Retailers brace for tougher times and more frugal customers in 2023 | C
Technology
Companies can ‘hire’ a virtual person for about $14k a year in China | C
Crypto
How Sam Bankman-Fried ‘Madoff’ with regulators | P
The boldest bitcoin price predictions for 2023 | C
