October 31 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Bear Bottoms
The bear market has clawed 30% out of stock valuations, returning the S&P 500’s forward P/E to its historical average of 15. But October 12 may have marked the bear’s bottom. If GDP and inflation perform as we expect and the Fed does what everyone expects, that bottom should hold. … We think the stock market has discounted a soft-landing scenario (to which we give a 60% subjective probability) but is nervous about a hard landing (40%). … Also: The MegaCap-8 stocks’ outsized influence over their resident indexes has been diminished. … Movie review: “All Quiet on the Western Front” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 24.
Markets
Good News: Bad S&P 500 Earnings Are Playing Into the Fed’s Hand | B
Rising Markets Seem to See the Fed Easing. It’s Too Early for That. | BR
Small-Cap Stocks Have Rarely Been So Depressed. 7 to Buy Now. | BR
Municipal Bonds Are Offering the Yields You’re Looking For. Here’s Where to Look. | BR
The Year That Changed How Wealth Grows | BR
U.S. Pensions Take a Fresh Look at China | W
Energy
Column: U.S. diesel shortage increasingly likely until economy slows | R
Diesel market in perfect storm as prices surge and supplies dwindle | C
Natural-Gas Prices Have Plunged Into Autumn | W
Central banks
Column: Fed may be alert to favoured yield curve alarm | R
Goldman Sachs Now Sees Fed Rates Peaking at 5% in March | B
Fed and BOE Prepare 75 Basis-Point Salvos on Inflation: Eco Week | B
Job Markets Are Defying Central Bankers’ Efforts to Cool Demand | B
Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer | W
US
Joe Biden attempts the biggest overhaul of America’s economy in decades | E
3 Potential Outcomes for the Midterms—and What Each Scenario Would Mean | BR
Inflation, Economy Are Top of Mind for US Voters in Midterm Poll | B
The Midterm Elections Are Almost Here. 5 Key Areas to Watch. | BR
How much is long COVID reducing labor force participation? Not much (so far) (brookings.edu)
Senate Republicans want the SEC to explain why staff are quitting | R
Europe
Storm clouds loom for Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s new prime minister | E
China
China Nods to Even Tighter Ties With Russia in Xi Jinping’s Third Term | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.N., Turkey Race to Save Ukraine Grain Deal | W
EU urges Russia to revoke Ukraine Black Sea grain deal suspension | C
Factbox: What is known about the drone attack on Crimea? | R
Russia says it recovers drones used in Black Sea fleet attack in Crimea | R
Russia’s Lavrov needles Biden over Cuban missile crisis and Ukraine | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Where Are the Air Bags? Russia’s Hobbled Auto Industry Struggles to Reboot | W
Materials: Steel Companies’ Profits Hurt by Falling Prices | W
Retail: JPMorgan, Macy’s and Other Companies Reveal What They Pay Workers as Deadline Looms | W
Tech: Digital Dollars Could Be a Boon for Amazon, Alphabet, and Other Tech Companies | BR
Tech: Rate Squeeze Punishes Once-Triumphant Tech Stocks | W
Corporate finance
A brief history of Twitter: From its founding in 2006 to Musk takeover | C
Beyond markets
The attack at the Pelosis’ home was part of a dangerous pattern | E
