October 12 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Most Widely Anticipated Recession In History
Some areas of US economy are thriving while others flounder, and several looming challenges signal tough times ahead. JPMorgan Chase’s CEO yesterday said a recession is coming. Our assessment is that a rolling recession is already here and should linger well into next year. … We’re raising our Q3 forecast for real GDP and lowering our Q4 one. … Notably, small business owners remain depressed, with inflation topping their worry list even as they’re forced to exacerbate it. … Also: Industry analysts have been continuing to lower their earnings sights; we may do the same for S&P 500 earnings this year and next depending on the strength of Q3 earnings results.
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 10.
Markets
Further 20% fall in U.S. stocks ‘certainly possible’: IMF director | C
Federal Officials Trade Stock in Companies Their Agencies Oversee | W
Global
IMF Warns Rate Increases Could Spur A Global Recession | N
IMF Warns of Growing Global Risks, Says U.K. Turmoil Largely Contained | W
US I
Biden Says Very Slight Recession Is Possible, but He Doesn’t Anticipate One | W
U.S. mortgage interest rates rise to highest level since 2006 | R
Demand for riskier home loans is high as interest rates soar | C
Supplier-Price Report to Offer Clues on September Inflation Trend | W
US II
Federal Deficit Fell by $1.4 Trillion in Fiscal Year 2022, CBO Estimates | W
The never-ending state of rotten and excessive government | WT
Legal challenges could hamper U.S. rule to limit independent contracting | R
Whither Long-Term Inflation? | Morningstar
China
American Universities Continue to Falter in World Rankings as China Rises | W
China’s ‘liberal’ Wang Yang seen as possible premier as reshuffle looms | R
Japan
Japan Bond Market Sets Record for Nothing Happening | W
Geopolitics & trade
NATO, partners to discuss bolstering Ukraine air defence | R
Putin blames Europe for energy crisis as EU works on price cap | R
U.S. Suppliers Halt Operations at Top Chinese Memory Chip Maker | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: United adds new trans-Atlantic flights for summer 2023 in bet on travel recovery | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon cost cuts under Andy Jassy reflect new reality after 25 years | C
Tech: The CHIPS Act alone won’t secure US semiconductor supply chains | The Hill
Tech: Meta Quest Pro: A $1,500 Virtual-Reality Headset for Working in the Metaverse | W
Corporate finance
Philips to Take $1.3 Billion Write-Down on Sleep-Apnea Business | W
Vista Equity Nears Roughly $4.5 Billion Deal for Cybersecurity Provider | W
Beyond markets
Covid news: U.S. is tracking omicron subvariants but booster should protect | C
