October 04 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Valuation, Liquidity & Inflation
The S&P 500’s forward P/E has sunk practically to its historical average of 15.0. What happens to it next depends much on what happens to the economy. If our growth recession scenario continues to play out (to which we subjectively assign 60% odds), the historical average valuation likely will hold and the S&P 500 drift sideways until climbing again in 2023; if a hard-landing recession scenario unfolds (40% odds), the P/E may sink into the single digits. … On the bright side, the financial markets have plenty of liquidity to buoy valuations. … Also: We look at what inflation has been doing by two different measures, the CPI and PCED, and examine how they differ.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on October 3.

Markets
Stocks surge to kick off October and a new quarter as bond yields tumble, Dow closes up 760 points | C
U.S. Stocks Rally to Start New Quarter | W
For Corporate America, Strong U.S. Dollar Cuts Both Ways | W
Column: Iron ore navigates choppy seas amid some positive China signs | R
Column: Crop Watch: Mass bean harvest fails to bring impressive yields | R

Energy
China Is Rerouting U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas to Europe at a Big Profit | W

US
U.S. manufacturing nearly brakes; price pressures abating | R
A new definition of what makes a job good | The Hill
Will DHS Again Leave H-2B Winter Industries Short Workers? | Cato at Liberty Blog
Port of New York moves ahead with ocean carrier empty container fee | C

Emerging
Right-wing wins in Brazil’s Congress show staying power of ‘Bolsonarismo’ | R

Industries & companies
Airlines: Airlines Face a Shortage of New Boeing, Airbus Jets | W
Autos: As More Cars Hit Dealership Lots, Buyers Feel Pinch of Rising Interest Rates | W
Autos: Rivian production grows 67% in 3Q, confirms 2022 goals | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon’s latest product announcements are a reminder the company is always watching | CNN
Tech: Apple’s Fall 2022 Event Products: Reviews of iPhone 14, iOS 16, Apple Watch Ultra, AirPods Pro 2 and More | W

Beyond markets
Ukrainian ambassador tells Elon Musk off after billionaire’s Twitter poll | C
Trump sues CNN claiming defamation, seeks $475 million in punitive damages | R