October 03 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Volcker 2.0, Recession & Inflation
The latest economic indicators suggest that the economy is doing better than expected—supported by consumer spending but dragged down by the housing recession—but also that inflation remains too high. That alignment increases the odds of more Fed tightening than previously expected, a higher terminal fed funds rate, and a Fed-induced hard landing. A hard landing isn’t currently our economic forecast—we see the growth recession continuing through year-end. But fears of a Fed-induced hard landing are increasing bearishness in both bond and stock markets. We are assessing whether our forecasts for both S&P 500 earnings and valuation might be too optimistic. … Also: Dr. Ed reviews “Blonde” (+).
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on September 26.
Markets
Markets are reeling from higher rates. The world economy is next | E
After Punishing Year for Stocks, Investors Aren’t Betting on Post-Midterm Rally | W
Bond Yields Are Finally Looking Attractive. What to Buy Now. | BR
How to Build a Bond Ladder for Income | BR
Column: Dollar shock threatens global economy | R
Liability Driven Investment (LDI*) – quick explainer | Word Press
Energy
Russia’s Gazprom Suspends Gas Flow to Italy | W
OPEC+ to consider oil cut of over than 1 million barrels per day | R
Central banks
Central Banks’ Higher Rates, Bond Sales Clash With Government Needs | W
‘The Fed is breaking things’ – Here’s what has Wall Street on edge as risks rise around the world | C
Opinion | Is the Fed Braking Too Hard? | N
Column: BoE in murky water with qualified ‘whatever it takes’ | R
Global
A European Recession Will Hurt the U.S. Economy and Complicate the Defense of Ukraine | BR
US
Inflation Keeps the U.S. From Stepping In to Slow Dollar’s Rapid Rise | W
‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry suggests current economic downturn could be ‘worse than 2008’ | P
Recession could be big obstacle for Starbucks, Amazon unions | C
Europe
U.K. Might Look Cheap, but It’s Hardly a Bargain Yet | BR
China
How to make sense of Xi Jinping, China’s enigmatic ruler | E
Geopolitics & trade
Autos: Lithium Demand From EVs Is Strong. Shortages Will Keep Prices High. | BR
Autos: Lithium-Ion Battery Inventor Introduces New Technology for Fast-Charging, Noncombustible Batteries | UT News
Autos: Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda talks EV skepticism, ‘happy dance,’ his legacy | C
Retail: Walmart bets inflation will push customers to join subscription service | C
Climate
To protect Germany’s green transition, accept coal and nuclear power, says Veronika Grimm | E
Biden to visit Florida and Puerto Rico as scale of Hurricane Ian’s death and destruction emerges | C
Search and rescue efforts underway in Florida after ‘catastrophic’ hurricane | C
Beyond markets
Elon Musk’s Texts Shatter the Myth of the Tech Genius | The Atlantic
