August 22 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Searching For Godot
The economic slowdown so far this year is not the game-changing “official” recession so widely feared. Waiting and waiting for this Godot of a recession is muting economic activity, but also inhibiting excesses. That’s why we expect any recession that does show up—a scenario we give 35% odds—to be mild and roll through the economy gradually by sector. We see a slow-growth scenario as the most likely outlook (60% odds) and an inflationary boom the least (5%). … Also: We turn our spotlight on what a rolling recession might look like and how September might treat the stock market.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 15.
Markets
Stocks Are No Longer a Sure Thing. Where to Invest Now. | BR
The February Effect: Dividend Hikes Spike in the Shortest Month | BR
How an Emerging Market Stock Fund Stays on Top, With Less Risk | BR
Central banks
Shrinking Deficits Cushion Fed’s Retreat From Markets | W
Chinese Banks Cut Rates to Spur Economic Growth | W
China trims lending rates one week after surprise cuts in key rates | C
Energy
European gas prices surge as Russia announces Nord Stream 1 shutdown | C
Europe’s Natural-Gas Crunch Sparks Global Battle for Tankers | W
Energy Projects Sought Across the U.S. Face Local Hurdles | W
US I
Recession Is Already Here for Many Small Businesses | BR
Your Steak Is Getting Cheaper at the Supermarket | W
Americans are concerned student loan forgiveness will worsen inflation | C
US II
Will Donald Trump run again? | E
Donald Trump’s hold on the Republican Party is unquestionable | E
Merrick Garland is not naive about political violence | E
Ex-White House Aide Kash Patel Presses View Trump Broadly Declassified Documents | W
More IRS Audits Are on the Way for Taxpayers. How to Respond if You’re Targeted. | BR
China
China’s economy is beset by problems | E
China’s Alibaba and Tencent focus on cost cuts amid slowing growth | C
How China’s Covid policies lead to hampered supply chains, higher inflation | C
Mao-loving websites are in a grey zone between propaganda and dissent | E
Japan
Prices are rising in Japan, but not wages | E
Industries & companies
Autos: Elon Musk says Tesla will raise price of FSD by 25% in September | C
Financials: PNC Financial Services Has Big Ambitions—and a 3.4% Dividend Yield | BR
Media: AMC shares tank more than 30% as Regal Cinemas owner warns of potential bankruptcy | C
Logistics: Railroad Regulator Turns Up Heat on Industry to Fix Shipping Delays | W
Manufacturing: Pandemic Bolsters China’s Position as the World’s Manufacturer | W
Geopolitics & trade
Korea and U.S. begin largest military drills amid N. Korea backlash | C
Russia launches murder investigation after car bomb kills daughter of key Putin ally | C
Ukraine’s Zelensky Warns Against Trial of Prisoners Captured at Azovstal Steel Plant | W
Climate
Droughts Hurt World’s Largest Economies | W
Bill Gates Is Ecolab’s Largest Shareholder. He Just Scooped Up More Shares. | BR
