July 26 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: How Much Rate Hiking Does QT2 Equal?
The Fed may have 100bps less of rate hiking to do thanks to the tightening effects of the strong dollar and QT2, the Fed’s balance-sheet-reduction plan. That means the Fed may be done raising the federal funds rate in September after just two more 75bps increases to 3.00%. … Indeed, the Treasury market appears to be discounting a 3.00% peak, sooner rather than later. … The mortgage market in particular must be discounting QT2, as the Fed’s rate hiking alone can’t account for how high mortgage rates have soared, depressing housing and weakening the economy.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 25.
Markets
Premature rally? It’s too early to talk of central bank ‘peak hawkishness,’ strategist says | C
The Markets and Economy Are Reaching a Fork in the Road | N
Bearish Dennis Gartman Becomes ‘Quietly Neutral’ After Stocks Rebound | B
Central banks
Fed’s united front on interest rates may soon be tested | R
Investors Bet Fed Will Need to Cut Interest Rates Next Year to Bolster the Economy | W
US
The numbers show the U.S. economy is at least teetering on a recession | C
Shallow Recession Calls Are ‘Totally Delusional,’ Roubini Warns | B
This Dallas Fed Economic Survey Is the Perfect Snapshot of the Economy Right Now | B
Americans Driving Less With Pump Prices Still Higher Than a Year Ago | B
Inflation in US: Difficulty Paying Bills Tops Pandemic High in Census Survey | B
Why these ‘unretirees’ went back to work | NN
Nancy and Paul Pelosi are trading large — with a wealth of hypocrisy | P
Europe
Russia to Cut Europe’s Gas Flow via Nord Stream to 20% | W
China
From ‘Lying Flat’ to ‘Let It Rot’ China’s Gen Z Lowers Their Ambitions Even More | B
Industries & companies
Energy: U.S. Energy Department set to loan GM battery joint venture $2.5 bln | R
Materials: Redwood Materials Plans $3.5 Billion Battery-Materials Plant in Nevada | W
Retail: Walmart Cuts Profit Outlook as It Lowers Prices to Move Goods | W
Technology
Dreaming up new proteins, AI churns out possible medicines and vaccines | Science | AAAS
Climate
Gov Newsom declared a state of emergency over Oak Fire in California | C
