July 11 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Reassessing the ‘Banana’ Scenario
Is a recession imminent? Is it here already? How big an impact will it have, if it comes, when it comes? The dreaded “R” word has everyone in a tither, and so does the weakness in the LEI. But the CEI suggests everything’s just fine. We recap the latest economic releases and how they’ve led us to the subjective probabilities we assign to four alternative economic scenarios. … We also assess how well peaks in the S&P 500 presage recessions. … And: The stock market may have hit its bear bottom already according to the Da Vinci Code, if inflation is peaking and that tempers the Fed’s hawkishness. Also: Dr. Ed reviews “Staircase” (+ +).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 5.

Markets
The Stock Market Faces Next Test as Inflation Looms Over Earnings Season | W
Premarket stocks: Inflation and markets have a complicated relationship | NN
Dividend Stocks Can Help During Recession. Here’s What to Look For. | BR

Central banks
For the Fed, Easing Too Soon Risks Repeat of Stop-and-Go 1970s | W

Global
Sri Lanka Crisis Flashes Warning for Other Indebted Economies | W
 
Europe
Manufacturers Brace for Nord Stream Repairs, Fearing Pipeline Won’t Reopen | W
France’s President Emmanuel Macron decides to go it alone | E

Japan
Shinzo Abe’s Goal of Revising Japan’s Constitution Moves Closer After LDP Election Victory | W

China
China factories are feeling some heat as U.S., Europe demand slows | C
Fed Up With China, One Boss Tries Removing It From the Supply Chain | W

Geopolitics & trade
Polish-German relations have gone sour | E
Ukraine War Pushes Millions of the World’s Poorest Toward Starvation | W

Industries & companies
Energy: Exxon Mobil’s Darren Woods: Barron’s Top CEOs 2022 | BR
Media: Box office: ‘Thor: Love and Thunder’ has $143 million domestic opening | C
Pharma: Pfizer’s Albert Bourla: Barron’s Top CEOs 2022 | BR
Retail: Amazon Prime Day 2022: Why deal experts say you might want to skip it | C
Retail: Nordstrom’s Erik Nordstrom: Barron’s Top CEOs 2022 | BR

Beyond markets
Brazil party official shot dead as pre-election political violence escalates | R
Abe killer wielded homemade gun, grudge over mother’s financial ruin | C