July 06 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: A Recession: To Be or Not To Be?
The latest batch of leading economic indicators suggests weaker coincident indicators to come. As a result, we’re raising our odds of a shallow, short-lived recession in the US economy to 55% (from 45%). That makes a recession now our base-case scenario from which we derive our earnings and stock market forecasts. … Higher recession odds lower our expectations for what S&P 500 companies will earn, what investors will pay for their stocks, and where the S&P 500 price index may stand at year-ends 2022 and 2023. … Also: Melissa looks at the factors contributing to global food inflation and the regions most vulnerable to food shortages.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on July 5.
Markets I
Stocks Finish Mixed Amid Worry About Slowing Economic Growth | W
H2 market outlook: Strategists on how to weather the market storm | C
Bonds flash recession warning light as key part of the yield curve inverts again | C
Markets II
Explainer: U.S. yield curve inverts again: What is it telling us? | R
Oil tumbles as much as 10%, breaks below $100 as recession fears mount | C
Euro slides to 20-year low against the dollar as recession fears build | C
Central banks
Why Consumers’ Inflation Psychology Is Stoking Anxiety at the Fed | W
Accelerating Inflation in Asia Puts Pressure on Central Banks to Raise Rates | W
US
If the U.S. Is in a Recession, It’s a Very Strange One | W
Bosses Offer Midyear Raises to Retain Employees as Inflation Takes Toll | W
Americans Tap Pandemic Savings to Cope With Inflation | W
Biden still weighing China tariff options as requests to keep them pile up | R
Red States Are Winning the Post-Pandemic Economy | W
China
China’s Housing Market Pain Set to Continue After Sales Bottom | B
China’s $1.2 Trillion Wealth Fund Loses Two Directors Adding to Exodus | B
Japan
Analysis: Inflation, not deflation, is now Japan’s political hot potato as election looms | R
Industries & companies
Media: Why ‘Minions’ beat ‘Lightyear’ at the box office | C
Retail: Walmart Tells Suppliers New Fuel and Pickup Fees Are Coming | W
Corporate finance
Global Corporate Debt Burden Declines as Costs Surge Amid Recession Fears | B
