July 05 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Second Half of 2022
The US economy is probably heading into a mild recession, recent indicators suggest. We now see real GDP contracting by 1.9% this year. … The good news: The recession should be over next year and should slow the rate of inflation in H2-2022 and 2023. The sooner the business cycle bottoms, the sooner the stock market will. … Analysts will be getting the recession memo shortly and cutting their estimates accordingly. We’re doing so now, lowering our earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies this year and next.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on June 27.

Markets
Markets Had a Terrible First Half of 2022. It Can Get Worse. | W
The Best Income Investments Now | BR
Falling Commodity Prices Raise Hopes That Inflation Has Peaked | W
Coal Makes a Comeback as the World Thirsts for Energy | W

Global
China’s Slowdown Could Tamp Down Global Inflation | W

Commodities
How Food Became Putin’s New Strategic Weapon | W
Ukraine says Russian ship carrying Ukrainian grain detained by Turkey | R
No guarantees Swiss will always have enough gas, minister says | R
Production at Venezuela’s largest refinery hit by blackout | R

US
If the U.S. Is in a Recession, It’s a Very Strange One | W
Millennials Were Optimistic About Their Financial Future—but Now, Not So Much | W
Americans Have Had It With Inflation | W
Bezos slams Biden’s call for gasoline stations to cut prices | C

Europe
Fresh faces on the far right and left fill France’s parliament | E
Chancellor Olaf Scholz takes taciturnity to new levels | E
Ukraine War Hits Germany With First Trade Deficit in Over Three Decades | W

China
Some Chinese want their country to move closer to communism | E

Geopolitics & trade
Russia says its forces now have full control of east Ukraine region | C
Ukraine war: How would a G-7 price cap on Russian oil work? | C
The Quad expands beyond naval military exercises — and China watches | C
NATO holds its most important summit for decades | E
How to win Ukraine’s long war | E

Industries & companies
Airlines: U.S. flight disruptions finally ease as the holiday weekend winds down | C
Airlines: American Airlines scheduling glitch allows pilots to drop thousands of July flights | C
Airlines: Air New Zealand: Beds in economy class on airplanes by 2024 | C
Autos: German road traffic agency says 59,000 Tesla vehicles have software glitch | C
Autos: AutoZone and 3 Other Auto Parts Stocks That Look Like Buys | BR
Media: Minions: Rise of Gru domestic box office opening tops $108 million | C
Pharma: Merck Covid-19 Pill Prescribed Frequently in Some Countries Despite Low Efficacy | W
Retail: Glut of Goods at Target, Walmart Is a Boon for Liquidators | W
Tech: Chip Boom Loses Steam on Slowing PC Sales, Crypto Rout | W

Corporate finance
As interest rates climb and the economy cools, can companies pay their debts? | E
Investment Banks Prepare for Lean Times as Deal Spree Sputters | W

Crypto
Crypto Took Wall Street on a Wild Ride. Now It’s Ending in Tears. | BR