June 13 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: That ’70s Show On Fast-Forward
May’s CPI report showed scant signs of inflation peaking, though we still expect peaking soon. The report also suggests a more hawkish Fed and higher recession risk. We’re raising our odds of a mild recession to 45% from 40%. … Investor and consumer sentiment both have soured. But this time, pervasive bearishness may not be as useful a contrarian bullish signal as in the past. There may not be much upside for stocks until the Fed is done tightening later this year. … Also: We revisit the question of the decade: Will the 2020s resemble the Great Inflation of the 1970s or the Roaring 1920s? … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Gaslit” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on June 6.
Markets
Earnings Are Under Threat, Another Blow to Sagging Stock Market | W
Japan’s Yen Usually Benefits When Markets Get Ugly. Not This Time | W
Central banks
Hot Inflation May Mean an Even More Aggressive Fed | Morningstar
Sizzling Prices Complicate Fed’s Inflation-Fighting Strategy | W
Why controlling inflation should be the Federal Reserve’s primary goal | The Hill
How Did Yellen and Powell Get Inflation So Wrong? | The Atlantic
Column: ECB sowing messy ‘some of what it takes’ signal | R
US
An ‘Ugly’ Inflation Report Upended Hopes That Price Gains Would Ease | N
‘Peak Inflation’ Keeps Peaking | W
Why Is Gas So Expensive? Don’t Blame Gas Stations for Painful Prices, Exclusive Data Show. | BR
Millennials and Gen Zers want to buy homes—but they can’t afford it | C
Business Travel Is Rebounding—Slowly and Unevenly. ‘There Is No More Normal.’ | BR
Geopolitics & trade
Ukraine says it still controls Sievierodonetsk plant sheltering hundreds of civilians | C
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy on food crisis, prices amid war with Russia | C
Ukraine grain exports via Poland, Romania face bottlenecks, deputy foreign minister says | R
Rice prices are rising amid rising food inflation, export bans | C
French, German and Italian Leaders to Meet With Zelensky in Kyiv | W
Shangri-La: Chinese defense minister on U.S.-China tensions, Taiwan | C
Factbox: Impact of strike by South Korean truckers on autos, steel, others | R
Industries & companies
Energy: This Industrial-Gas Giant’s Is Steady in a Volatile Market. It Also Scores High on ESG. | BR
Media: Some Ads Play on Streaming Services Even When the TV Is Off, Study Finds | W
Media: ‘Jurassic World: Dominion’ opening weekend box office | C
Pharma: Three-Dose Pfizer Covid Vaccine Works Safely in Young Children, Review Says | W
Technology
How smarter AI will change creativity | E
Beyond markets
Baby-Formula Shortage Has Spurred Competition, but Tough Road Remains to Unseat Similac, Enfamil | W
Swim lessons are impossible to find right now. What’s going on? | Slate.com
