May 31 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Valuation Meltups & Meltdowns
Valuation is in the eye of the beholder, but the economic outlook that influences it isn’t as subjective or hard to forecast, with lots of data available to help. … We think forward P/Es may be range bound this year and next and the S&P 500 may remain volatile below its January 3 high before climbing to new highs in 2023 and 2024. … Recession fears are weighing on valuations. We raised the odds of a mild recession to 40%, up from 30%, last week and again explain why. … Also: We discuss the variables suggesting a moderation of inflation ahead, led by consumer durables. … Finally: Dr. Ed reviews “Benjamin Franklin” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on May 23.
Markets
Stocks Fall, Oil Prices Gain as EU Commits to Partial Russian Crude Ban | W
China’s Tentative Reopening Gives Boost to Markets | W
Energy
Oil prices jump after EU leaders agree to ban most Russian crude imports | C
Russia hits back at the EU’s partial oil embargo, says it will find other importers for its crude | C
EU’s Ban on Russian Oil Adds Stress to Region’s Economies | W
Central banks
Bernanke: Why the Fed Didn’t Act Faster to Rein In Inflation | BR
Fed Fears Hit Mortgage Bonds, Attracting Investors | W
Fed Governor Christopher Waller says he’s prepared to take rates past ‘neutral’ to fight inflation | C
Biden, Fed Chair Powell to meet as inflation continues to weigh on consumers | R
US
Home-Price Growth Hit Record in March | W
Facing Inflation-Weary Shoppers, Grocers Fight Price Increases | W
Biden Pledges to Back Fed in Effort to Combat High Inflation | W
Inside a Biden White House adrift | C
Europe
Euro zone inflation hits yet another record high as food and energy prices soar | C
China
How Xi Jinping is damaging China’s economy | E
China’s Economic Downturn Shows Signs of Easing | W
China faces a nearly $1 trillion funding gap. It will need more debt to fill it. | C
As China’s Private Developers Retreat, State-Backed Rivals Gain Ground | W
Geopolitics & trade
Russia Extends Control Over Key Ukraine City as U.S. Plans to Boost Kyiv’s Firepower | W
China and the U.S. Are Arranging an In-Person Meeting Between Heads of Defense | W
Industries & companies
Financials: Big Banks Are Seeing Deal-Making Income Dry Up | BR
Financials: German police raid Deutsche Bank’s DWS unit | C
Crypto
Crypto’s Future Is Even More Exciting, and Maybe More Volatile, Than Its Present | BR
Top crypto firms go on the hunt for acquisition targets as market crashes | C
The luna cryptocurrency has been resurrected after its $40 billion collapse. It’s already crashing | C
Technology
Robots Pick Up More Work at Busy Factories | W
World Economic Forum Pushes Facial Recognition Technology | Brownstone Institute
Web3 Was Supposed to Save the Internet. It Has a Long Way to Go. | BR
Beyond markets
Britain urges people with monkeypox to abstain as cases rise | C
Americans who work from home are getting more productive | Vox
